Chapter 581 nozuonodie (third update, please subscribe)
Financial speculation, to a certain extent, is a big gamble.
When you gamble, you lose and you win, you lose and you make money!
This is often due to luck, but when in Lengha, many people feel that luck is on their side.
After the start of the new week, as gossip spread - there was a large amount of Nazi gold in Nanyang's vaults, this news seemed to confirm the rumor that Nanyang wanted to compensate foreign gold.
As a result, in just a few days, more than 100 million yuan of funds entered the gold and silver exchange, betting on gold, and the price of gold continued to rise.
In an instant, gold became the darling of the Nanyang speculative market.
For a time, countless people invested their money in gold, fearing that there would be a moment's delay that would delay their fortune. After all, for those people in Shanghai who are accustomed to speculation, this is the business they are most familiar with.
They are used to speculating in gold, silver, cotton, foreign exchange, coal... But they will speculate on anything that can be speculated in the world.
If it weren’t for the fact that large companies had monopolized operations on Nanyang’s cotton yarn, rice and other public supplies, I’m afraid they would have been involved in it and speculated on it.
For them, there are ups and downs in the gold market right now. It’s an opportunity that’s perfect for hype.
The fluctuations in the market have also attracted official attention. After all, with the surge in gold, even the Nanyang dollar, which is closely tracking the US dollar, has also experienced some fluctuations.
"...If it were not for our implementation of foreign exchange controls, I am afraid that the currency depreciation would have been far greater than it is now."
Listening to the report of Zhao Shijie, the general manager of Nanyang Bank of China, Li Yi'an asked road.
“How much has the Nanyang dollar depreciated now?”
"It has exceeded 5%. According to predictions, in the next two months, the depreciation may exceed 15% to 20%,"
After thinking about it, Zhao Shijie said.
“Although the depreciation of the Nanyang dollar is in the official plan, such a large depreciation is likely to affect the stability of the market.”
The reason why Zhao Shijie said this is completely It is because the Nanyang official intends to promote currency devaluation. The reason is very simple - the currency value of the Nanyang dollar is overvalued. When the Nanyang currency was issued, it adopted the strategy of keeping a close eye on the U.S. dollar. One Po currency can be exchanged for one U.S. dollar. In order to stabilize the currency value, it also adopted After adopting the strategy of free convertibility, it took two years to establish the credit of the Po currency before gradually tightening currency exchange. However, the overvaluation of the currency has always affected the Nanyang economy.
Especially when Nanyang was founded on trade, overvalued currency pairs are not used for exports. For this reason, in order to stimulate exports, Nanyang has established a gradual devaluation of the currency over ten years. It will eventually stabilize at the level of 2 South dollars for 1 US dollar.
This currency value is not only conducive to Southeast Asian trade and exports, but also prevents the currency from being undervalued in the future and being harvested by the international financial market - such as Japan. For example, before the Plaza Accord, Japan implemented a fixed exchange rate of 360 yen to 1 US dollar for decades. As for the exchange rate, with the development of Japan's economy, its currency value has been seriously underestimated. After the Plaza Accord, its currency value rose sharply, suffering speculation from international speculators, and was harvested many times.
In contrast, the German mark also appreciated in the Plaza Accord. Unlike Japan’s fixed exchange rate that has been implemented for decades to stimulate exports, the exchange rate of the mark has changed many times after the war. From active depreciation to active appreciation, before the Plaza Accord, it had already actively appreciated by nearly double. When the US dollar depreciated in the 1970s, it actively appreciated slowly, thereby avoiding the financial harvest caused by the short-term surge after the Plaza Accord.
In a word, successful experience can be learned. Just as the German mark took the initiative to devalue 20% last year to stimulate exports, Nanyang can also adopt the same flexible monetary policy.
“It is also very necessary to properly stabilize the currency value. A 20% devaluation this year is the limit. If the decline is so large in two months, it will definitely affect currency confidence, and.”
Thinking of the possible conflicts in Northeast Asia in a few months, Li Yian frowned and said.
"Well, we can start to stabilize the currency. By the way, who are the speculators in the gold market?"
"They are still those people, the Shanghai people!"
Mentioning those people At this time, Zhao Shijie raised the corners of his mouth and sneered coldly.
“In the past, when they were in Shanghai, they were speculating in gold, silver, bonds, cotton, rice, coal, anything that could be speculated. Some rich people, These businessmen and officials who fled from Shanghai to Nanyang often have a certain ability to judge the political situation and have plenty of money. They even dare to trade gold and silver with dozens or hundreds of times leverage. "
Looking at the president, Zhao Shijie said. "Now, they are all betting that the investigative committee will find Nazi gold in our vaults, and then have to compensate a large amount of gold to foreign countries. This has also brought about fluctuations in the currency and gold markets, especially the gold market. At present, The price of an ounce of gold has reached 57 yuan, and they are still bidding up. According to current statistics, the funds entering the market have exceeded 100 million yuan.”
When it comes to this fund, Zhao Shijie, the governor of the central bank, can't help but feel jealous. These funds are all real money. !
“One hundred million!”
Li Yian couldn’t help but sigh.
“They have so much money!”
Could it be that a certain Liu tycoon, while he stayed in Shanghai to wait and see, sent his wife and children to Nanyang, and at the same time transferred another US$20 million in cash.
This is just one of them, and you can tell the whole story at a glance.
It is for this reason that Li Yian hopes to guide them to use their funds in industrial investment instead of in the speculative market. In fact, in another world, those who fled from Shanghai to Hong Kong The rich people on the island were still addicted to various investments when they got there. As a result, I don’t know how many people lost all their money, and I don’t know how many people jumped off the building as a result.
"Hey, if God does evil, you can't live if you do evil. Since they want to die, let them die!"
Li Yi'an sighed and said.
"Tell Jingyun, sell it. No matter what price they offer, take it!"
Well, who is the largest shareholder of Feng Jingyun's Hongxing Money Exchange... Of course it is the company.
After saying this, Li Yian glanced into the distance and said.
“Those people don’t know at all that they are betting on the fate of the country this time, and now...the fate of the country is with me, how can they not lose everything..."
Shake his head and sigh At the same time, Li Yi'an thought about how in another world, the gold merchants who dominated Hong Kong Island looted the wealth of the wealthy people from Shanghai and Hong Kong.
At that time, the British Hong Kong government controlled the import and export of gold, so the gold in Hong Kong was much higher than international gold, and it was several percent or even several times higher.
So their strategy is very simple, which is to speculate on gold in Hong Kong Island and attract speculators who like financial speculation in the Shanghai stock market to join. Local Cantonese gold dealers, taking advantage of Shanghai speculators' lack of familiarity with local conditions, smuggled gold from Macao in large quantities and then cashed out the gold at high prices from gold and silver trading centers.
As a result, Shanghai-based speculators became takeovers. Generally, gold speculation is based on leverage, so there are many Shanghai-based speculators who have lost everything. Many people have lost miserably, and some have jumped off buildings.
The situation in Nanyang is similar - due to gold controls, the price of gold is higher than the international market, which also allows those speculators to see opportunities.
“In the past, they just speculated on gold. Now, they want to speculate on the national destiny, so okay!”
Li Yian said with a smile,
"Just give them a chance and let them feel it!"
The corner of his mouth raised slightly, Li Yian didn't even know how to describe those people, don't they? Do you know that - compared to individuals, the government has a steady stream of gold and foreign exchange in its hands?
"Your Excellency, I'm afraid they miscalculated this time..."
Zhao Shijie chuckled.
"They never thought that the official would end up acting as a speculator himself!"
By the way, this is the limitation of the era. In this era, the official role is at most a role of calming the market, and does not have much influence on the financial market. Intervention is different from another era. In order to respond to the attacks of international speculators, central banks of various countries have long been accustomed to taking action personally. They use their wealth to make some international speculators fail. Of course, it is also possible to lose everything and let international speculators make money. The dishes are full and the bowls are full.
However, in the final analysis, this matter itself is a capital game, and the competition is capital. Moreover, in this game, Nanyang is still the banker!
Standing by the window and staring out the window, Li Yian sighed softly.
“Okay, nozuonodie, you want to die, what can I do!”
(End of this chapter)