Chapter 996 Western Population Expectation
The First Five-Year Plan focused on the development of the west. Starting from 1900, East Africa's investment in western towns and mines, agriculture, increased significantly, especially Cabinda, Luanda, Benguela, The actual policies that cities such as Kinshasa and Bangui receive are much higher than those of the thunderous and rainy Dar es Salaam City Circle, or the self-funded Greater Mombasa Plan of Oriental Province.
“During the First Five-Year Plan, more than 200 new towns will be established in the west, especially in the vacuum area between the coast and the center, that is, Kasai Province, Lunda Province, and Okavango Province and other areas, it is planned to introduce a large number of people to settle and work locally."
"At the same time, it will also target the population of important cities such as Cabinda and Luanda. During the First Five-Year Plan, at least two emerging cities with a population of over 500,000 will be built in the west to balance the cities of Dar es Salaam and Mombasa in the east.”
No need. We all know that the two cities must be Luanda and Cabinda, Cabinda corresponds to Mombasa, and Luanda corresponds to Dar es Salaam.
The development of the new western part of East Africa can be compared to the development of the West Coast by the United States, or the development of the Far East by Russia. Of course, the natural conditions of western East Africa are better than those of the western United States, and Russia has invested heavily in the development and construction of the Far Eastern Empire. In fact, it is very It is difficult to achieve results.
“In the past ten years, we have renovated and built the industries and original infrastructure in Angola based on the original colony of Angola. With the efforts of millions of black workers and more than four million East African people, Nowadays, Angola’s overall transportation, water conservancy, etc. have been fully improved, but in contrast, the local population Evenly distributed, especially the population is too sparse compared to the central and eastern areas, and the sparsely populated situation is very serious. "
With a population of four million (excluding black people), this level is not even as good as that of Russia's Siberia. In the last Russian census in 1897, the total population of Siberia in Russia was more than five million, close to six million.
So Ernst said: "During the First Five-Year Plan, the total population of Angola will exceed at least 10 million, so that it can shoulder the important task of becoming a new pillar of the national economic construction."
"Rational use With the advantages of sea and land in the western region, we should focus on the development of industries such as equipment manufacturing and electric power industry, especially the promotion of urbanization, converting the agricultural population in eastern East Africa into urban population and promoting the progress of urbanization in East Africa.”
There is no doubt that the focus of the East African government has completely shifted to the stage of industrialization, so East Africa does not pay much attention to improving agriculture in the west.
Because of this period, even the more developed central and eastern regions of East Africa were actively carrying out depopulation of agriculture.
So the construction in Angola is completely different from the past immigration and development process in East Africa. In the past, East Africa used agriculture first and then industry, but now East Africa's agricultural production activities are approaching their peak.
Of course, depopulation of agriculture does not mean not developing agriculture, but no longer developing labor-intensive agriculture, but promoting mechanized agriculture, thereby reducing the demand for agricultural population.
Although agricultural construction has a positive significance for East Africa's population growth, East Africa cannot bear the trend of continued high-speed population growth. Today, East Africa's population has exceeded 80 million (excluding blacks), ranking second in the world. in Russia and is still in a high-growth stage.
If the industrial structure of East Africa is not adjusted in time and efforts are made to develop industry, East Africa is likely to fall into a vicious cycle in which economic growth is held back by population growth.
In fact, the East African government has felt the pressure and has significantly increased social expenditures such as medical care and education. However, agricultural production activities cannot support these expenditures because agricultural profits are far less than those of industry. Even if East African agricultural sales are smooth, There is no obstacle, but the income will only continue to decline.
On the one hand, the development of their own countries or their colonies by countries around the world has led to continued growth in the output and categories of grain, dairy products, and cash crops, further intensifying competition in world agriculture.
Typically, Argentina’s dairy and livestock products have risen sharply, which is bound to have an impact on the dairy and livestock markets of other countries and regions. Argentina has a vast territory and sparse population, favorable climate conditions, and low shipping costs. Its dairy exports Livestock products are of high quality and low price. At least the livestock industry in East Africa is difficult to compete with Argentina overseas. The advantage of East African agriculture lies in tropical cash crops. In this field, East Africa undoubtedly ranks first in comprehensive strength in the world. However, Brazil, India, Southeast Asia, and the Caribbean are also developing, and the technical threshold is not high, so they are also facing greater challenges. Competitive pressure.
If the population of East Africa is only 20 to 30 million, or 40 to 50 million, and remains stable at this value, then agricultural profits are still very promising, but the population of East Africa is second only to European, American and Asian countries in the world, and the population is growing rapidly. , and with agricultural profits continuing to decline, industrial development is currently the only way out for East Africa.
This is easy to understand. Among countries with similar area and large population, the only reference objects in East Africa are the United States and Tsarist Russia. Although the population data of countries such as Britain, France, and Germany are not bad, their area is too small and they are not suitable for reference. significance.
There is no doubt that Tsarist Russia is a country with more agriculture than industry, and the United States is already a relatively developed industrial country. The future situation of the two countries in the past life is also very clear, that is, the domestic crisis in Tsarist Russia is getting worse and worse, and the regime will eventually change. The United States took over world hegemony.
Although the Soviet Union later emerged and led the former Russian region to become the first level of world hegemony, the gap between the Soviet Union and the United States had already widened greatly. The gap between the two countries was at least forty or fifty years. Time, even if the Soviet economy grew rapidly under the Soviet model, it would be difficult to close the gap.
The most representative data is the urbanization rate of the two countries. By the 1980s, the urbanization level of the Soviet Union barely reached 60%, while other developed countries generally reached 60%. More than seventy.
Therefore, it is very important for East Africa to seize the economic development window in the early 20th century, including taking advantage of opportunities such as economic crises and wars.
During the previous world war, the original production activities of European countries completely shifted to military industry in order to plunge into the bottomless pit of war. You must know that before the war, Europe was the most industrially developed region in the world, and European civilian Industrial production activities stagnated due to the war, giving up the largest share of the world market.
In the previous life, the world's largest market, which had been ceded due to war, was almost eaten up by the United States alone. The improvement to American industry and society is immeasurable.
The world war is undoubtedly a huge opportunity for East Africa, but if it wants to seize this opportunity, East Africa must first build its own industrial base. In this case, it can Make war fortune.
So in the first decade of the 20th century, Ernst went all out for industrial construction in East Africa. Only countries with developed industries and outside of Europe can enjoy the war economy more comfortably. dividends.
This brings us to the Far East Empire. In its previous life, the economy of the Far East Empire actually enjoyed the dividends of World War I. During this period, national capitalism gained leaps and bounds, or a chance to breathe. However, due to the country’s weak industrial base, it suffered The war dividends are not even comparable to those of Japan.
After all, Europe's demand for various materials due to war is almost unlimited, and only industrial countries outside Europe can reap the bulk of the war dividends.
In the previous world, there were only two developed industrial countries outside Europe, the United States and Japan. In this time and space, due to the sudden rise of East Africa, there should be three. The industrial level of East Africa may be different from that of European and American countries, but Its strength is far greater than that of Japan, and due to its geographical location, East Africa is easier to eat from both ends than the United States. The trade between the United States and Europe is completely dependent on the Atlantic Ocean and will inevitably be restricted by the United Kingdom. However, East Africa can reach both camps through the Atlantic Ocean and the Indian Ocean. Transport resources.
(End of this chapter)