Chapter 1013: Taking sides
“Your Highness, now is the time to express our country’s attitude. According to the various intelligence we have compiled, it can be basically determined that Tsarist Russia and Japan will eventually have a war, and both sides of this war are fighting. Be prepared," Felix said.
“Russia’s internal thoughts on war with Japan have been revealed. According to gossip, the Russian government has long concluded that war with Japan will occur between 1903 and 1905.”
“So , The attitude towards war is not a sudden idea, but a major event that Russia has planned for a long time. The intelligence we collected from Europe and the Far East also pointed out that the Russian government is strengthening its military strength in the Far East recently. "
"So the war news leaked from Russia is obviously not groundless. They are likely to be the first to launch an attack on Japan."
Ernst basically agreed with Felix's inference. However, the Russo-Japanese War in the previous life began with Japan's sneak attack on the Russian army. However, Felix could not have thought of Japan, a "small" country, so unreasonable. Martial ethics.
Of course, Ernst did not interrupt Felix, but let him continue.
“At the same time, Japan is also actively preparing for war, especially after signing relevant agreements with the United Kingdom. Military cooperation between the two countries has become increasingly frequent. It is estimated that behind Japan there is support from the United States and the Far Eastern Empire.”
It is impossible to imagine that cooperation between Britain and Japan would not be frequent. After all, most of the ships in the Japanese fleet come from or imitate Britain.
It is not surprising that the Far Eastern Empire supports Japan. This is not a random speculation by East African officials, but has real evidence. Although there is no official statement, there are already many important figures in the Far Eastern Empire who have contacts with Japan. This There is obviously the instigation of the current government of the Far Eastern Empire behind this.
But this is understandable. Although the two countries have had a war, Tsarist Russia now poses a far greater threat to the Far Eastern Empire than Japan.
Now Tsarist Russia’s Pacific Fleet is stationed in Lushun, and many military forces have illegally entered the territory of the Far Eastern Empire. Therefore, from a bright perspective, Tsarist Russia has caused serious damage to the core interests of the Far Eastern Empire.
Of course, from the 19th century to the early 20th century, “Any country that is a neighbor to Tsarist Russia is probably so wary, because Tsarist Russia’s paper data are too exaggerated. From today’s perspective, Russia is just a It's quite scary there.
Enns. Te also said at this time: "The possibility of a war breaking out between Russia and Japan is now at least 90%, and it is very likely to break out within this year or next year. Now the expansion of the Japanese navy is nearing completion. When the Japanese government's six The Sixth Fleet plan is completely completed, and war is not far away. "
"According to the estimates of our intelligence personnel, the Sixty-sixth Fleet Plan should be completely completed next year, and the Japanese government cannot maintain this huge army. They can only maintain their country by waging war. operation. ”
"So Japan will definitely launch a war next year at the latest, and the only opponent that Japan can anchor is Tsarist Russia or the Far Eastern Empire. Between the two countries, Tsarist Russia has the greatest chance."
Japan has always been on the path of light military force. on the road, so it is impossible to stop. As for Russia, it is not easy to be sure.
However, as long as either of the two countries is determined, this war will be inevitable, so Ernst determined that the probability of war breaking out next year is more than 90%, and Japan must be the first to strike.
Because Russia has only now begun to borrow money from everywhere, this reflects to a certain extent Russia's hesitation in its attitude towards the Japanese war. This hesitation was also one of the important factors in Russia's failure in the previous life.
If Russia pays more attention to Japan, it may change the direction of the war. However, judging from the various information Ernst has obtained now, there is a high probability that Russia will return to the mistakes of its previous life.
Sweet asked: "Your Highness, what role should we play in this very likely war? Should we support Russia or Japan?" Ernst said: "But who wins between Japan and Russia has almost no influence on us. too much influence, and in my opinion, Japan gained The possibility of victory in the war is very high, but even if we are on the side of the winner, we in East Africa cannot become the first winner.”
“If Russia wins, it will undoubtedly benefit the most. It’s France. If Japan wins, it will be the most profitable. The big ones are Britain and France, so we in East Africa don’t need to take sides easily.”
“For us now, that is to actively gain as much as possible from this war without affecting the economic development of our country. interests, and among Japan and Russia, we are Russia’s interests are the greatest, so we must gain as much benefit from Russia as possible.”
Russia is one of the largest markets in East Africa and is very rich in resources. In addition, the Russian Black Sea can reach the east coast of East Africa, which makes Russia become the largest market in East Africa. important economic partner.
Therefore, compared with Japan, Russia is more important to East Africa, so when placing a bet between the two countries, Ernst must choose Russia, even if Russia has a high probability of losing in the war.
“Russia is one of the most important markets for my country’s agricultural products and industrial products, especially high-end industrial products such as automobiles and electricity. However, in Japan, our interests are almost negligible. The Japanese economy is mainly dominated by the British. , controlled by the United States and the United States, even if we try hard, it is impossible to squeeze in, and it is difficult for Japan to come up with a bargaining chip that makes us excited."
"In the end, whether it is Russia or Japan, they are in the Far East. Any expansion may eventually harm our interests, so if Russia and Japan can both lose, that is the best news for us.”
In Ernst’s view, Russia is most likely to be defeated. , after all, the Russian Navy is a superficial existence, and although the Japanese Navy is not as large as the Russian Navy, it is not inferior to any country in the Far East.
This also strengthened Ernst's attitude of limited support for Russia. For many countries in the world, Russia is very unpopular.
But for East Africa, it's just the opposite. At least at this stage, East Africa and Russia are highly economically complementary, which makes the relationship between the two countries always relatively harmonious due to interest issues.
Therefore, it is absolutely impossible for East Africa to offend Russia. Instead, it must support Russia. This support will not allow Russia to win the war, but will only make Russia fail slower and consume more of Japan's potential.
So Ernst said: "By negotiating with the Tsarist Russian government, we can give Russia certain support in areas such as finance, but Russia also needs to show sincerity to make it easier for our industrial and agricultural commodities to enter the Russian market. At the same time, Russia should increase trade with East Africa The scope, especially the import of petroleum and other products, is more open.”
The cost of Russian oil is relatively low. Now Russia has developed oil fields mainly on the coast of the Caspian Sea. It can be transported through the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, and The Red Sea and so on finally reached East Africa.
Although Romanian and Austro-Hungarian oil have more advantages in transportation costs, their output is relatively low and there are many competitors, which also makes Russian oil resources account for an increasing share of East Africa's imported oil.
The development of East Africa's oil industry and internal combustion engine vehicles has created an increasingly strong demand for oil resources in East Africa, which makes it impossible for East Africa not to pay attention to Russian oil resources.
While oil is only a typical resource, East Africa also has a prominent demand for other Russian products, including high-quality wheat, oats, etc. The agriculture of the two countries is highly complementary. A tropical country and a cold temperate country make the two countries The dominant crops just don’t conflict.
Furthermore, the quality of Russian agricultural products, especially grains, tastes and nutrition exceeds that of other European countries, and is much better than that of East Africa. At present, in addition to rice, East African grains are more developed as raw materials for industrial production. , because the quality and taste can no longer meet the needs of the people of this country.
(End of this chapter)