Chapter 412 Confidence in increasing grain production
Guo Yang handed the document to Qi Ziwen and said: "Actually, it is still too greedy. I should be satisfied with crop rotation and fallow."
After listening to Qi Ziwen's report Guo Yang did not let him go in a hurry, but let him continue to drink tea with him.
“How do you feel at work?”
“It’s very good. All departments are very cooperative. Looking at the development of the entire group through the overall situation, I feel like I have a high position. I have learned a lot. Nothing is missing, thanks to the boss’s cultivation and consideration.”
There was sincerity in Qi Ziwen's tone, which was also his sincere words. Four years ago, he was a poor and studious agricultural student supported by the Jiahe Scholarship.
After entering Jiahe, he was directly selected into the list of Jiahe Leaders Program. After two years of hard work in the agricultural project team, he was rocket-promoted to the position of assistant to the chairman this year.
Although he is only one of the assistants, he feels very good personally and is working hard while absorbing various knowledge.
For the boss who promoted him, he is not only grateful but also admired. This is an even more extreme workaholic than him.
“It’s better if you are willing to work hard yourself.” Guo Yang said with a smile. He was quite satisfied with Qi Ziwen. He was young and willing to work. What was on his mind was not intrigues but practical work. Such a person should be used Comfortable.
From work to life to study, the two chatted for more than half an hour, and then there was another scene outside the door.
Jiang Wen, the exclusive secretary of Jiahe Cereals and Oils, walked in and greeted Guo Yang and Qi Ziwen before finding a seat next to the coffee table.
"Regarding the construction plan of the Beihai Port grain terminal berth, Jiahe International and Jiahe Grain and Oil have some differences..."
Soon, Guo Yang knew the reason for the matter.
After reaching the investment agreement for the Beibu Gulf Port with Guizhou Province, the port department immediately started planning. Jiahe International, Jiahe Biochemical, and Jiahe Cereals and Oils all participated, but they were just prioritizing how many tonnage-level berths to build. There were differences.
Jiahe International and Jiahe Biochemical believe that priority should be given to the construction of two 100,000-ton berths and one 50,000-ton berth to meet the transportation and export needs of agricultural products such as grain and biodiesel.
Jiahe Grain and Oil believes that before the Pinglu Canal is opened to navigation, the construction of three 30,000 to 50,000-ton berths will be sufficient.
But in the end, Jiahe International and Jiahe Biochemical gradually gained the upper hand, so Gaode asked Jiang Wenlai to report in advance. Anyway, the final plan was approved by the boss.
Jiang Wen said: "Because of this issue, several parties have quarreled several times."
Guo Yang thought for a moment, "There is a railway along the port in Beibu Gulf. If we talk about agricultural products from the northwest and southwest Arriving at the port via rail transportation, it doesn’t matter whether the Pinglu Canal is navigable or not.”
Jiang Wen's heart skipped a beat.
If the boss asks this, he is likely to be inclined to go for large tonnage, but the opinion of Jiahe Cereals and Oils where he works is exactly the opposite.
After quickly reviewing Mr. Gao’s words in his mind, Jiang Wen said:
“The strategic investment department of the group did a survey and judged after considering factors such as fallow farming and expanding the promotion of fuel ethanol. The potential for domestic grain import and export in the future is not High, self-sufficiency is the main focus, and current investments in domestic ports are likely to be idle.
At the same time, a survey by the Ministry of War Investment found that the four major grain merchants do not actually pay special attention to domestic grain. Collection and storage in production areas.
Based on this, the four major grain merchants may also believe that domestic grain exports are temporary. After the planting area of various crops is balanced, domestic grain dependence on foreign countries will be reduced, but they will not be able to export grain to the outside world.
Judging from the changes in the output of corn and soybeans this year, there will be crop rotation and fallow next year, and the adjustment of the planting structure should be in place.
Therefore, Jiahe Cereals and Oils believes that in the future, domestic inland and coastal logistics will be far more important than ocean logistics, so it proposes to prioritize the construction of 30,000 to 50,000-ton berths. ”
Jiang Wen was a little uneasy. He actually knew that his boss was firmly bullish on the growth of domestic grain production, but he was the resident secretary of Jiahe Cereals and Oils.
And, from the bottom of his heart, he I also somewhat agree with the research report of the Ministry of War and Investment. The domestic grain trade in the past two years has indeed been a bit chaotic. Only Jiahe has seized the opportunity of corn exports
However, with the issuance of crop rotation and fallow documents, 60 million acres of cultivated land will be involved next year. By then, the soybean area will further increase and the corn area will be significantly reduced again.
How much surplus grain will be used for export next year?
Definitely not many.
It can be said that it is the crop rotation and fallow that the boss strongly advocates, which is likely to cause the current export volume of Jiahe Grain and Oil to be cut in half again.
Guo Yang picked up the tea cup, took a sip, looked at Qi Ziwen beside him, and asked: "What do you think?"
Qi Ziwen pondered for a while and said: "Crop rotation and fallow will help increase yields in the long run."
"But it also reduces the land use area." Jiang Wen added: "And domestic corn and soybeans The cost of production is higher than that in South America. As the price of domestic agricultural inputs and labor increases, this disadvantage becomes more and more obvious.”
Qi Ziwen was speechless for a moment and drank tea in embarrassment.
Guo Yang looked at Jiang Wen and said, "Have you brought the research from the War Investment Department?"
"Yes." Jiang Wen took out a piece of material from the folder.
After Guo Yang took it, he looked at it. The research was very detailed, supported by various data, and the conclusion was consistent with what Jiang Wen said.
This huge change in crop rotation and fallow will have a profound impact on the future domestic grain production.
The reason for this decision is that the total output of the three major domestic staple foods reached 560 million tons this year, including 206 million tons of rice, 130 million tons of wheat, and 224 million tons of corn.
If the estimated output of soybeans is 50.52 million tons, in addition, the output of potatoes is about 30 million tons.
The total grain output for the year reached a record high of 640 million tons.
The world's per capita grain standard is 400 kilograms, but the current domestic food standard is about 479.4 kilograms, exceeding the world's per capita standard of 79.4 kilograms.
Some small grains such as sorghum and millet are not included.
In general, feeding the Chinese people is not a problem at all.
But after Guo Yang saw these data, his face turned serious unconsciously. When Jiang Wen and Qi Ziwen noticed his change of expression, they couldn't help but sit up straight.
In fact, after Guo Yang saw the total grain output of 640 million tons, he suddenly realized that in later generations, the domestic grain output at its peak was more than 640 million tons.
It seems that the total output for many years is 650 million tons?
After struggling for so long, the total grain output has not exceeded the previous life.
According to the speculation of the research report, if China's economy continues to maintain rapid development, feed corn and soybeans will not be able to meet demand.
He frowned and thought for a while. When he saw that the output of soybeans was 50 million tons, he realized what the problem was.
The yield of corn per unit area is much higher than that of soybeans. However, due to the adjustment of the domestic planting structure, a large number of corn fields have been converted to soybeans, so this result occurs.
After the false alarm, from this perspective, this research report is reasonable and well-founded.
The current domestic grain consumption potential has not yet reached its maximum. When it reaches its peak, the existing corn and soybean production will indeed be unable to meet demand.
Can the rate of increase in grain production keep up with the rate of economic development?
The general opinion is that it is difficult.
Although there is a surplus of 70 to 80 million tons this year, the crop rotation will be fallow next year. The economy is also recovering, and the consumption of grain and feed is increasing.
Therefore, most people's judgment is that grain exports will be tightened again next year, and this may be the case in the future.
When consumption is greater than total production again, choices may have to be made to give up part of the soybean planting area to ensure corn supply.
“This research is very detailed!” Guo Yang sighed, and then looked at the signature of the report: Miao Yiyi, Xia Qi.
Jiang Wen, who had been waiting for a long time, breathed a sigh of relief and said, "The boss agreed to build a berth of 30,000 to 50,000 tons first?"
Guo Yang shook his head, seeing Jiang Wen's puzzled look. Zhong drank another cup of tea before saying: "100,000-ton berths are needed."
He waved the research report in his hand again, "As for this research, it is indeed very informative, but it also ignores some key points."
Jiang Wen's face was full of surprise.
Guo Yang smiled and said: "After the Ministry of Agriculture's documents on fallow rotation are released, there will be no shortage of analyzes like this. Just wait and see, I will communicate with Gaode."
Things As Guo Yang expected, in the next few days, the topic of crop rotation and fallow became a hot topic in the industry.
From more than 6 million acres of pilot projects this year, the number will surge to 60 million acres next year, accounting for 3% of the total cultivated land area.
The news from the Ministry of Agriculture spread immediately among the seed industry, agricultural inputs, planting, and grain and oil industries.
In the stock market, stocks related to agriculture fluctuated frequently, and companies with related concepts such as seeds and fertilizers experienced a decline.
Some people began to question this policy on the grounds that fallow farming will threaten food security, and many even cursed.
With the decline in planting area, the demand for seeds, fertilizers and pesticides will also decrease, and the interests of many people will be harmed.
At the same time, some people began to carry the connotation Jiahe with guns and sticks.
"In the past two or three years, Jiahe Cereals and Oils has been very effective in the domestic and international grain logistics supply chain. It has quietly completed the reform of dispersed transportation, which is refreshing. Jiahe Cereals and Oils has also become a pioneer in domestic corn and other grain exports.
At the same time, Jiahe has also invested in many supporting facilities at the port, but most of them are for smooth export rather than processing. .
However, as soon as the crop rotation and fallow documents came out, Jiahe’s grain export dream was about to wake up.
Ironically, it was Jiahe’s chairman Guo Yang who proposed crop rotation and fallow. "
In the office, Gao De, Qu Yang, Yan Qun, Chen Yanqiu, Qi Ziwen, and Miao Yiyi were sitting around Guo Yang's desk.
Guo Yang casually read out a media report against him. There were many similar remarks in the past few days.
He looked at the crowd, "How many of you think so?"
Miao Yifeng, the vice president of the Strategic Investment Department, was the first to raise his hand. The research report was He is the leader, and he also believes that Jiahe’s current investment is too aggressive.
After Miao Yiyi raised his hand, Gao De also indicated that he held the same view.
Guo Yang looked at the others: "What about you?"
Chen Yanqiu said: "I don't know about domestic grain production, but even if it is not from the perspective of grain export, Jiahe still needs a 100,000-ton berth in the Beibu Gulf. Now that a port company has been established, we can't be timid from the beginning. .”
According to his idea, since we want to participate in international trade, it is best to build two 100,000-ton general bulk cargo berths and storage yards, silos and other related facilities from the beginning. In addition to grain, soybean meal, raw sugar, Steel and other groceries can be transported.
All investments add up to more than 1 billion yuan, which is a large amount of investment, but from the perspective of the entire logistics system in the southwest and northwest regions, this investment is worthwhile.
Qu Yang and Yan Qun also expressed their opinions.
What surprised Chen Yanqiu, Gao De and others was that they clearly believed that the rate of increase in domestic grain production could exceed the rate of growth in consumption.
Qi Ziwen, who spoke last, joined this camp without thinking.
This made neither Gao De nor Miao Yiyi understand why, and even Chen Yanqiu was surprised.
Where do these people get their confidence?
Guo Yang put his hands in his pockets and leaned back relaxedly on the boss's chair. "Actually, Tianhe has suffered the most losses in the fallow rotation, but they are the most confident."
Gao De has long been doubtful. At this time, Ren He kept asking: "Mr. Qu, Mr. Yan, what new seeds have Tianhe produced?" Qu Yang replied: "Nowadays, Tianhe reviews hundreds of new varieties every year, and there is no shortage of new seeds every year. This is true nationwide.”
"What does this mean?" Miao asked without understanding: "Can the yield per unit area be improved to a higher level?"
Yan Qun, who was in charge of seed production, smiled and said: " The domestic grain yield has been climbing in recent years, but now it has reached the point where quantitative changes lead to qualitative changes."
Yan Qun explained in detail.
Since Tianyu No. 1 broke the rules and pioneered dense-tolerant single-grain sowing, domestic corn production has entered a stage of soaring.
Various high-yield records of field corn have emerged one after another, and Tianyu 1 has begun to dominate. Only a few varieties such as Xianyu 335 and Zhengdan 958 on the market can support this.
Naturally, various seed companies are not willing to give in. If you can produce dense-tolerant varieties, then we can also produce them.
In terms of imitation, domestic seed companies are also first-rate.
And now the breeding trend is changing, and it is difficult for large varieties to appear, so most breeding companies and scientific research units target one province or region for scientific research.
This improves the success rate of breeding and makes the new varieties more adaptable to the local area.
According to Yan Qun, now is the time to reap the results.
In the past two years, the new varieties lined up for approval by Denghai, Longping, Kenfeng, Beidahuang, Wanxiang Denong and other companies are all such precise small varieties.
In the provincial variety approval planting test fields, the high-yield research fields can also reach 4000~4500 catties/mu, which has caught up with the high-yield research fields in North America.
Although these varieties contain the genes of Tianyu No. 1 to some extent, this is still an improvement in overall strength.
This means that the domestic corn yield will also usher in a small jump.
In addition, Tianyu No. 8 also has potential to be tapped.
These are just one of the sources of confidence for Qu Yang and Yan Qun.
The other two major staple foods, wheat and rice, also have huge potential to be tapped.
The commercialization rate of wheat and rice seeds is not as good as that of corn. Basically no farmer will keep corn seeds for himself, but wheat and rice are different.
Especially for wheat seeds, the commercial rate has been hovering at 50% to 70% for a long time. Some farmers, even large grain growers such as cooperatives, are using self-saved seeds.
Wheat is mostly self-bred varieties. When farming in rural areas in the past, if farmers bought wheat seeds with high yield and good quality in any year, they could keep the seeds for 2-3 years. If a neighbor had good varieties, they could also I will use my own wheat to plant new seeds.
Therefore, in general, in years with a good wheat harvest, the proportion of self-saved wheat seeds will increase significantly, and sometimes the usage rate of commercial seeds is even less than 50%.
This makes it more difficult to promote wheat seeds, and also hinders the promotion of Tianmai No. 1 and wheat top students.
Tianmai No. 1 has been on the market for six years, and Wheat Pure Optimum is also in its third year of promotion.
Relying on Tianhe’s field marketing and promotion system, the promotion area of Tianmai No. 1 has been maintained between 8 and 12 million acres.
For a high-gluten wheat variety, it is already an excellent single product, but the idea of self-save seeds also affects its upper limit.
Wheat is different. Its promotion area has reached 25 million acres this year!
This brings Tianhe’s domestic wheat seed market share to 10%.
Two years ago, Tianhe’s wheat seed business revenue was only 200 million yuan, but this year’s wheat revenue is estimated to be around 1.2 to 1.3 billion yuan.
Under the loose domestic wheat seed market, this is already an excellent result, and Tianhe has become one of the largest wheat seed suppliers in the country.
But it was only then that the potential of wheat as a perfect eugenic was revealed.
In the past three years, Wheat’s top students have been promoted with a wide net.
It stands out among many wheat seed brands for its excellent yield and wide adaptability. Its planting areas have spread across 7 provinces in the Huanghuai winter wheat region.
In the past three years, the experiences of wheat farmers have also been different.
The year before last, Shandong Province suffered from floods and the Northeast suffered from drought. Wheat production generally decreased, but the high yield of wheat wheat was outstanding.
Wheat yields were generally high last year, and wheat with good eugenics still has an advantage, but sales are still affected by self-saved seeds.
A spring drought occurred in the north this year, especially in Henan Province. Wheat production was severely affected by the drought. The province's wheat yield dropped to 366kg/mu, the lowest in recent years.
But during the summer harvest, a 7,000-acre field of wheat in Jiaozuo looked particularly dazzling, with the average yield per mu still exceeding 500kg.
134kg higher than the provincial average output.
This incident was reported by many media at the time, and the Jiaozuo Rich Farmers Cooperative and the wheat top students also became famous.
Tianhe also praised a technician named Yu Yu internally.
I heard that in order to help the rich peasant cooperatives alleviate the spring drought, in February, he came up with various ways for the rich peasant cooperatives, running forward and backward.
Although it may not be effective, Jin Kaiqiang, chairman of the Rich Farmers Cooperative, has promoted Tianhe Wheat as a brand of excellent students.
This shows that the relationship between it and its customers is very harmonious. It recommended the soybeans planted by rich farmers in the next crop and achieved good economic benefits.
Tianhe naturally wanted to reward him.
This year, in addition to Henan Province, there are also various high-yield growers in winter wheat-producing areas such as Huanghuai North, Huanghuai South, and Northeast China.
There are fields with yields exceeding 500kg per mu, and there are even high-yield fields with 600kg or even 700kg.
In the field of high-yield research, Tianhe Seed Industry Academy also tried its best to make the yield of 'Wheat Totally Eugenics' reach 865kg, breaking the record of the highest yield of winter wheat in China that had been sealed for 10 years.
And he also improved this record by nearly 100kg.
‘Jimai 22’ cultivated by the Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences had a yield of 789.5kg during the production test this year, but it was still eclipsed.
But what Tianhe cares more about is field cultivation and market value.
The average yield of wheat in most of the seven Huanghuai provinces is still 400~450kg. When faced with natural disasters, for example, Henan Province dropped to 366kg this year.
However, in cities with a relatively large area of eugenics wheat promotion, the average output of several cities exceeded 500kg, and the highest even reached 580kg.
Qu Yang and Yan Qun integrated these data and found that the country’s wheat sown area is about 334 million acres, and only less than 8% of the total wheat area is eugenics.
Only the seven provinces of Huanghuai and Huanghuai are used for calculation. About 265 million acres of winter wheat are sown in the seven provinces, which only accounts for 9.43%.
The average yield per unit area of the seven Huanghuai provinces was overestimated by 450kg. The actual yield potential of fully-optimized wheat is 700kg/mu, but here it is only calculated as 550kg.
Every time the promotion of full-optimum wheat in the seven Huanghuai provinces increases by 1 percentage point, which is 2.65 million acres, the national wheat output will increase by 265,000 tons.
Just by increasing the market share by 37.7%, the wheat output in the seven Huanghuai provinces will increase by 10 million tons.
If calculated based on 650kg, it is 20 million tons.
The increase in output is extremely considerable.
Then comes rice.
This is Tianhe’s weak point, with only two main varieties, Tiandao 22 and Tiangenyan No. 1.
Tiandao 22 is a conventional variety that pursues taste. The yield is not high and the promotion area is not large. Fortunately, Tiangeng Yan 1 has made a contribution to increasing the yield of rice in saline-alkali land.
And rice is the strength of the domestic breeding industry, and it is also among the best in the world.
Even if it develops naturally, the rate of increase in yield is considerable.
Finally, there are potatoes. The potato tissue culture factory in Dingxi, Longzhong has also made some achievements.
As Yan Qun said, more than half an hour had passed, during which he even distributed a piece of information to everyone.
After he finished his statement, several people listening on the sidelines had already circled the data one by one on the A4 paper, with different attitudes, but they finally understood the source of confidence in increasing production.
“What a mistake.” Gao De sighed, “I should call you during the meeting.”
Miao Yifeng shook his head, not knowing whether it was regret or loss, “During the research , Mr. Qu is still abroad, and Mr. Yan has been at the seed production base for a long time, and he can’t find anyone even if he wants to call.”
Chen Yanqiu was also filled with emotion.
As a Singaporean and a grain analyst who has worked at Cargill for more than ten years, I have a relatively clear understanding of grain production data in various countries.
In his impression, in the past, the average yield of corn in Lao America was nearly twice that of China, and the output of wheat, potatoes, soybeans, etc. was also significantly ahead.
Now that corn and soybeans have been overtaken, wheat and potatoes are about to catch up.
This speed of development, just like the earth-shaking changes in China's economy in the past thirty years, will also shock the world.
Qi Ziwen was sitting on a chair arranging notes, while Qu Yang was drinking tea leisurely.
Taking everyone's reactions into his eyes, Guo Yang said: "What Mr. Yan said is only part of it. Bi Qiang is not here, otherwise I can say more."
"Enough. That's enough." Gothe has figured it out now. , "The first phase of the Beibu Gulf Port project plans to have three berths. I suggest one berth each for 50,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 200,000 tons."
It was Chen Yanqiu and Miao Yiyi's turn to be surprised for a moment. , changed his attitude really quickly, and even mentioned 200,000 tons.
“That’s not the point.”
Guo Yang said in a deep voice that the investment in Beibu Gulf Port is aimed at going global. Whether or not this is the case, he will ask for large tonnage. What he cares about is confidence and consistent strategic goals.
Whether it is Miao Yifeng or Jiahe Cereals and Oils represented by AutoNavi, they have long been in contact with opponents who favor foreign investment.
The information spread by these people is either that domestic food imports and exports are balanced, or that domestic food consumption growth is greater than production growth. In the end, a choice must be made and soybeans are imported.
Coupled with the recent crop rotation and fallow policy, Miao Yifeng, Gao De and others have also been affected by this.
In addition, it is also related to the fact that Jiahe Grain and Oil Information Platform has not included Tianhe’s seed information, which needs to be considered.
Patting the table, Guo Yang raised his voice and said: "Jiahe must always have its own judgment and strategic determination, and not be affected by outside interference and influence. Are the judgments of the four major grain merchants necessarily accurate?"
"Remember, this is our territory!"
(End of this chapter)