Chapter 1116 The Wind Rises
Not long after returning to the apartment on Fifth Avenue, Jiang Xiaoyang called.
“The banquet is over?”
“Yes.”
“How was the result?”
"As expected, how could a group of greedy opium dealers reject Hanhua Private Equity Fund with huge returns."
Jiang Xiaoyang: "Including this fundraising, the total number of Qinglong Private Equity Fund The scale reaches 160 billion U.S. dollars, and the total size of Pacific Hedge Fund reaches 110 billion U.S. dollars.
So huge. How do you invest large amounts of money?”
“It’s still the same old way of investing now.”
“The US$150 billion raised this time is too huge. If you increase the leverage by five times, it will be 750 billion US dollars. Even if you diversify your investment, it will take a lot of time to enter the market.
Failure to invest at that time will delay the investment progress and increase the difficulty of exiting in the future. "Jiang Xiaoyang said.
"Can't we just lower the lever? "Xu Liang smiled.
"This will affect our rate of return. ”
“If the funds are too large, of course it will affect the rate of return. Especially for hedge funds, this feature is even more obvious. But there is nothing we can do about it.
Although the global investment market is huge, the opportunity to make huge profits may not come once every two to three years.
Therefore, if Pacific Fund and Qinglong Fund can maintain an annual return rate of about 30% in the future, it will be considered a success. ”
Now that he has made enough money, he no longer needs to take huge risks and invest through high leverage.
Xu’s focus is no longer on how to make money quickly.
But how to keep the money that has been received and will be received soon?
"I know, I will arrange for people from the company to follow up on these blue-blood nobles tomorrow. ”
Xu Liang: "I thought you would object."
"Entrepreneurs only make limited profits." Jiang Xiaoyang continued, "Besides, I don't want to do what happened with the Quantum Fund last time. .
I will be satisfied if I can do finance safely, even if the return is only 10% every year."
Xu Liang replied with a smile.
In the treacherous financial market, stability is impossible.
After hanging up Jiang Xiaoyang's call, Helen quickly called.
“Are you going to put 20% of Facebook’s shares into Hanhua’s S Fund?”
“Hmm. ...Don’t worry, most of the equity invested this time will belong to Hanhua We will take out part of the Facebook equity we hold privately, but not now.”
During Facebook’s last Series A financing, Hanhua held 7.69% of the equity as an investor.
“Facebook is developing very fast now, and its valuation is changing every day. Why do you want to hand over his equity?”
"It's simple, because it is developing too fast and needs more protection umbrellas.
In addition, the real estate market in the United States has reached its peak. If housing prices fall, it will create a financial crisis that stretches across the United States and even the world. Crisis."
"Financial crisis?"
"Hmm, are you too pessimistic?"
"Helen, I have never made a mistake in finance in all these years."
In order to convince her, Xu Liang prepared a PUA.
Helen stopped talking.
Xu Liang's financial performance in the past seven years has made even the toughest people admit his ability.
“This time I hope you will put part of Facebook’s equity into Hanhua’s S fund. After you get a certain amount of cash flow, I will let you know about your investment.
The Xu Group in the United States cannot have just one company, Facebook, because the risks are too high. "
Helen thought for a while and agreed.
As a descendant of blue-blooded nobles, she knew very well how these old nobles passed on their family wealth.
"Originally, I thought After Facebook goes public, cash out a certain amount of equity and then diversify your investments. Helen said.
“Your idea is good, but the subprime debt crisis is imminent, and it is not suitable for Facebook to go public in the next few years. ”
"You can temporarily lend me a sum of money."
Xu Liangdao: "It's fine within 500 million US dollars, but not more. I also want to seize the opportunity of this subprime debt crisis."< br>
“Okay, then I want 500 million US dollars.”
“No problem.”
Without hurting my feelings at all, 500 million US dollars is just right.
After all, Helen is not the only woman he has.
——
A few days later.
40 Wall Street, Red Rock New York Headquarters.
Li Jinling hurriedly opened the door of Xu Liang's office with a folder under her arms.
"Mr. Xu, all the guests who attended the banquet that day have given their replies. This is the statistical fund subscription form."
Xu Liang took it and flipped through it.
"These blue-blooded nobles are not that good. At a glance, they are full of 5 million and 10 million. It's a shame that I left so much credit for them."
Xu Liang He threw the documents on the table casually.
To be honest, he felt that he had overestimated the financial resources of this group of powerful people. It was just that, they were still aristocrats.
Li Jinling smiled and said: "I'm sure they can't compare with you, but compared with ordinary Americans, they are very rich."
Xu Liang nodded.
Before taking public office, these people were usually corporate executives or lawyers, with high incomes.
After retiring from public office, these people usually serve as consultants to some large companies, which is regarded as a reward for the "help" provided by large companies to public officials while they were in office.
Big companies will also invite them to give speeches for a fee. For those at the level of congressmen or above, the fee for an hour of appearance can reach tens of thousands of dollars, or even hundreds of thousands of dollars, which is reasonable and legal.
Or write the memoirs of a general like George W. Bush or Ao Guanhai.
Publish a book.
The people at the bottom of the United States like to watch these interesting stories about the upper class, and the royalties are very high, easily amounting to tens of millions of dollars.
Of course, these are incomes on the surface, but secretly they are too much.
For example, lobbying companies.
There are thousands of lobbying firms in the United States.
It shows how huge this market is.
The key is that these people have also inherited their power hereditary.
Their children followed the same life path as theirs. After graduating from Ivy League schools, they went to work on Wall Street and became lawyers.
Relying on the relationship between their parents, their promotion opportunities and salary are far higher than others, because those big bosses are supporters of their parents.
When these people are in their thirties or forties and have earned enough money, they will follow the old path of their parents and enter politics.
While refreshing the resume, inherit political resources, pave the way for the next generation, and maintain the status of the family...
This cycle is a bit like the powerful families in ancient China.
"Send the information to Hanhua and Hongyan."
Li Jinling nodded and was about to leave when the phone in her pocket suddenly rang and she answered the call.
"What? Okay, okay, I understand, just keep staring."
Li Jinling looked happy and looked excited after hanging up the phone in a hurry.
"Mr. Xu, I just received the news.
New Century Financial Corporation issued a fourth-quarter profit warning, and HSBC Holdings announced an additional increase of US$7 billion in U.S. subprime housing credit reserves." Xu Liang was startled at first, and then smiled brilliantly.
After waiting for so long, is the wind finally blowing?
......
In the trading room of Hongyan Fund, the big screen flashed the dynamics of US stocks.
“Good guy, the stock price suddenly crashed, falling by more than 35%.”
Wu Jing, head of the financial investment department of Hongyan Fund, stood behind him and looked at the desktop computer screen. The K-line chart that plummeted thousands of miles said excitedly.
"Mr. Xu, with the financial crisis in the new century, the subprime loan market will definitely change drastically. Our investment is completely stable."
Xu Liang did not speak, but there was a faint smile on his face. It was enough to explain his mood at the moment.
New Century Financial is the second largest subprime loan provider in the United States. It can also be regarded as the apparent source and first domino of the subprime mortgage crisis.
When this card falls, the subprime bonds derived from subprime loans, as well as the CDO, CDS, and ABX indexes derived from subprime debt, will collapse one after another, ushering in huge value fluctuations.
“Bang bang bang…”
There was a sudden knock on the door.
"Come in." Xu Liang said loudly.
Chu Gang, President of Hanhua America Office, opened the door and walked in quickly, his face full of joy and excitement.
“Mr. Xu, great news!
New Century Financial issued a profit warning, the mortgage loan default rate has soared, and the lid can no longer be closed!
Hanhua's bet was successful! ”
Chu Gang is usually a taciturn and very calm person, but at this moment he was acting very exaggerated and had rich body language.
Xu Liang was attracted by the ecstatic mood in him I couldn't help laughing anymore.
"It is indeed a great event and worth celebrating! ”
This is equivalent to firing the first shot of the subprime mortgage crisis, and more companies will surely release financial reports in the future.
Not only New Century Financial, but few other financial institutions are clean.
Behind the financial reports with huge losses is the excessive issuance of mortgage loans, and a large number of borrowers are simply unable to repay the loans.
The most important thing is that the direction of the housing market has changed. Once the price of the house starts to fall, the remaining value of the house after deducting the mortgage loan will become a negative number.
More borrowers will begin to default maliciously, and would rather bear the stain on their credit than bear the huge losses caused by falling housing prices.
A house originally valued at US$500,000 suddenly dropped to US$300,000, but the borrower is still burdened with a loan of US$500,000. In this case, I am afraid that 99% of low-income people will choose any The house was repossessed by the bank.
These bad debts do not fall on the poor people who buy houses, so who does?
It fell into the hands of investors who purchased subprime debt and CDO collateralized debt obligations, including commercial banks, investment banks, funds and ordinary investors.
This is the ‘systemic risk’ that is often talked about by many financial practitioners.
The price of systemic risk is ‘economic crisis’.
Xu Liang said excitedly: "The wind has just started blowing now, and it will still take some time before the wind and waves completely blow.
Now everyone is focusing their attention on the subprime mortgage and derivatives markets, observing and collecting information from all parties. "
"Yes! ”
Chu Gang and Wu Jing nodded heavily.
Today’s good news is like the sun shining, clearing away the dark clouds above their heads.
There is nothing to worry about anymore. Just do it!
The two of them hurriedly said goodbye and left. As they walked, they felt that their whole bodies had become lighter.
After the office door was closed, there was a "bang" and Xu Liang punched the table hard. The big stone in his heart finally fell to the ground.
Regarding subprime mortgages, Hongyan and Hanhua invested a total of tens of billions of dollars.
Especially Hongyan, because it was prepared early, but the insurance premiums paid in the past two years have added up to no less than 3 billion US dollars, and now it is finally time to harvest.
What's more important is that now that the situation is gradually becoming clearer, he no longer has to worry about the butterfly effect.
A few hours later, Goldman Sachs CEO Blankfein suddenly came to the door.
"Xu, congratulations, you have made another good deal."
Xu Liang asked the old man to sit down and pretended to be confused: "Mr. Blankfein, I don't understand very well. What do you mean? "
Blankfein looked at the man in front of him, with no clues in his calm expression.
“Xu, have you read today’s financial news?
HSBC and New Century Financial, the two largest subprime loan providers in the United States, have successively issued warning messages. ”
Xu Liang nodded lightly and said nothing.
From the conflict with the Quantum Fund last year to now, he has experienced the old man’s shrewdness and difficulty in the past two years. Before figuring out his purpose, he He didn't dare to relax at all.
After saying "It's a pity" in his heart, Blankfein smiled.
"Actually, you don't need to be on guard. I didn't mean anything, I just happened to be passing by. Your company comes to talk to you. ”
Xu Liang believed it was strange.
"Mr. Blankfein, you don't have to beat around the bush, just say it directly. As far as the relationship between our two companies is concerned, there is no need to be taboo about anything."
"Haha, I'm just being pretentious. Okay.
Okay, let me get it straight, how big do you expect the impact of subprime loans will be?"
Blankfein looked straight at Xu Liang.
"Hanhua, Thiel Funds, and Paulson Funds are the three largest bearish players in the subprime mortgage and derivatives markets, and these three companies are all related to you.
I believe you must have your own unique opinion, and firmly believe in his own judgment."
Xu Liang smiled and did not speak.
Blankfein saw this and said, "Xu, I won't consult in vain. Goldman Sachs will give Hanhua enough reward."
"What about?"
"For example, we can help you contact various CDS buyers, and you slowly compare prices until you sell at the most ideal price, and Goldman Sachs doesn't take a penny from it."
Xu Liang's eyes flickered, and he felt a little admired. stand up.
The old man must have sensed danger, but he was not very sure of his decision yet, so he thought of himself, the biggest short seller of subprime mortgages.
In contrast, if you don’t have the memory of your previous life, you will be far worse than others.
He vaguely remembered that in his previous life, Goldman Sachs not only successfully escaped from the subprime mortgage crisis, but also made a lot of money.
When other investment banks were forced to lay off employees due to heavy losses, what was Goldman Sachs doing?
This Xiuer is giving out bonuses to all employees.
What did Goldman Sachs do right?
One thing, I ended up shorting subprime mortgages.
Before other investment banks had not reacted and were even buying large amounts of subprime derivatives assets, Goldman Sachs shorted subprime mortgages.
He couldn't remember the exact time when Goldman Sachs entered the market, but he speculated that it would be roughly the first half of this year, because it would be too late any later.
As the CEO of Goldman Sachs, the old guy in front of me must be the manipulator behind a series of speculative actions by Goldman Sachs.
At this moment, he had the urge to lure Blankfein to Hanhua.
After calming down, he also knew that it was unrealistic.
"Mr. Blankfein, with all due respect, our fund has suffered heavy losses recently, and many of our peers are laughing at us. Are you asking me, are you not afraid of following us in misfortune?"
Blankfein smiled. He had indeed heard some rumors from above.
However, the internal situation of Goldman Sachs is complicated, and it is not his words. Moreover, Goldman Sachs’ proprietary department has bought a lot of subordinated bonds and collateralized debt obligations. Now it suddenly wants to turn around, which is not an easy move. decision.
So, he wanted to take advantage of Xu Liang.
Since defeating Soros last time, the guy in front of him has become recognized as a top investor in the world.
No one dared to ignore his decision.
If Goldman Caesar is short on subprime debt, it will be able to eliminate the opposition within Goldman Sachs to the greatest extent possible.
(End of this chapter)