Columbia University, the bell rang outside the classroom.
The students were restless and whispering, but no one got up and left because the professor who was teaching had not left yet.
After Markas wrote "Guns, Viruses and Steel" on the blackboard, he displayed the physical book in front of everyone:
"Summer vacation is coming soon, I recommend a lesson The post-reading book is written by a Chinese scholar and is called "Guns, Viruses and Steel". I hope you can choose a post-reading review after reading this book. This can be regarded as a holiday assignment. "
As soon as these words came out, the whole hall was in an uproar.
"This book has recently caused a huge wave in the academic world."
Marcus said that Columbia was very fortunate to invite the author of this book to give a lecture at the school. Those who are interested can come to the teaching assistant. Sign up.
As soon as Markas left, the students in the classroom were talking about it:
"World history books written by Chinese people? Haha, I heard it right."
"That is, what good things can Chinese people write?"
"This author seems to have also written "Saving Private Ryan" and won the National Book Award."
"I remembered that the movie directed by Spielberg was called "Saving Private Ryan" ”, will be released in the summer season soon. ”
"Maybe it's really worth taking a look."
"Whether it's worth it or not, this is an assignment assigned by the professor. Do you dare not to read it? Let's go and buy books together."
"What about the lecture? Do you want to attend it together?"
"Forget it, I have made an appointment with someone that day to attend a speech commemorating the 50th anniversary of the release of "Securities Analysis" by Jamie Graham."
"Me too!"
"It is said that Sequoia Fund managers Bill Ruane, Tweedy Boo's Tom Corner They will all attend. When the time comes, you must ask them carefully, what should they do to be as successful as them? "
"......"
In response to the discussion among the American students, Lu Xiaobo left the classroom with a livid face.
He came to Columbia University to study at public expense, because many of China's best people came from Columbia University.
Like Liang Shiqiu, Xu Zhimo, Jin Yuelin, Feng Youlan, Gu Weijun, Ma Yinchu...
I also longed to be like these sages and returned to China after studying. Now I hear the name "Dialect" , immediately ran to the bookstore outside the school to buy "Guns, Viruses and Steel". I went to three bookstores in a row to buy it, but it was not because the circulation was not large and the distribution was not wide.
But the sales volume was so booming that the bookstore with few stockings actually sold out of the stock.
The more this happened, the more Lu Xiaobo wanted to read this book by Dialect.
After buying the book and returning to the dormitory, he couldn't wait to open it and read it. As a result, he read it until dawn, and he actually read it all night long.
“It was actually written by us Chinese people, what a masterpiece!”
Lv Xiaobo couldn’t help but sigh, and then, regardless of sleep, he picked up the pen and wrote it for a master’s degree student at the Center for East Asian Studies in Pittsburgh. Wang Xiaobo wrote a letter.
At the same time, I have not forgotten to recommend "Guns, Viruses and Steel" to the Chinese international students at Columbia University.
Many overseas Chinese have heard of the famous dialect, and they immediately became interested, and even made an appointment to attend the theme lecture together.
But there are also many people who are caught in a dilemma: they want to attend dialect lectures, but they also don’t want to miss Jamin Graham’s memorial speech.
Fortunately, Columbia University was "reasonable" and deliberately staggered the time of lectures and lectures to solve the dilemma.
Two days later in the morning, the commemorative speech for the 50th anniversary of the publication of "Securities Analysis" was held first.
The guests present are basically Wall Street bosses, and they are all believers in Graham's investment philosophy.
Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett are two of them.
Charlie Munger was sitting in the audience, holding not "Securities Analysis" but "Guns, Viruses and Steel" in his hand.
Looking straight at the high-spirited Warren Buffett on the stage, I saw that he was giving an example of tossing a coin.
“Suppose that 225 million people in the United States each bet $1 tomorrow morning to guess the heads and tails of a coin. The loser is eliminated.”
“And the winner wins $1 from the loser. , and put all the money won as a bet for the next day."
"Then, after ten days, there will be about 220,000. People win in a row, and then they start bragging about how good they are at flipping coins. In another ten days, there will be about 215 people who have guessed correctly 20 times in a row, and each of them wins with $1. The newly minted millionaires will go crazy with joy."
"Maybe write a book, "How I Made $1 Million in 20 Days by Working Just 30 Seconds a Day."
"What's more, they might Flying around the country attending seminars on the magic of coin tossing, taking the opportunity to laugh at college professors who wonder if such a thing can ever happen. Did our 215 big winners fall from the sky?”
“…”
“This is the survivor bias! What value investing needs to do is how to reduce this. A deviation. "My approach is 85% Graham, plus 15% Fisher."
Warren Buffett spoke eloquently, and the audience applauded like thunder.
The entire commemorative speech ended so smoothly and successfully. I thought that students would swarm up as usual and block these "successful people". Unexpectedly, many students in the back row immediately stood up and rubbed oil on their soles. As if, he ran away from the scene.
"What are they?"
Warren Buffett frowned.
Charlie Munger smiled and said: "These students should be rushing to another lecture."
Warren Buffett was curious, "Who?"
"The author of "Saving Private Ryan."" Charlie Munger raised the "Guns, Viruses, and Steel" in his hand.
Warren Buffett took a closer look and said, "How is the writing?"
"It's very interesting. I think if you have a chance, you can take the time to read it."
< br>Charlie Munger saw more and more students leaving and suggested that he should attend lectures on dialects.
Warren Buffett pondered for a moment, nodded, and then led by the school leaders, a group of people arrived at the venue.
There is a sign at the door, which says the topic of the lecture -
"How did the world develop?"
"This topic is a bit big, really not Know what he would say."
Warren Buffett was surprised and confused.
"Then let's go in quickly and listen to his opinion."
Charlie Munger couldn't wait to walk in, and what he saw was a huge crowd.
The seats were packed, and there were so many people that we could only stand in the corridor. Fortunately, the school had reserved some seats in the front row for guests.
After Warren Buffett sat down, he looked up and was surprised when he saw such a young face.
Then I saw him holding Coca-Cola, unlike the old pedants holding thermos cups in my impression, and I was even more surprised.
But what shocked me the most was the content of his speech, his knowledge and insights beyond his years.
“From a certain symbolic perspective, guns can be seen as technology, steel represents resources, and germs can be seen as a metaphor for transmission.”
“With resources, we must use them. Technology can only be used, and if there is no dissemination after the first two, any advantage can stagnate or even become negative. Looking at human beings History, the advantages and disadvantages of various regions' resources are not static."
"A butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil may cause a tornado in Texas."
"With technology. The development and changes of a certain region’s environment also change at the same time..."
"What we need to avoid is a 'black swan' event, and what we need to guard against is a 'grey rhinoceros' situation."
Listening to the eloquent lectures in dialect, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger felt fresh: "Black Swan incident? "
Not only them, everyone present was also confused.
After all, the concept of "Black Swan" was only proposed in the 21st century in "Black Swan: How to Cope with the Unpredictable Future".
“Before Europeans discovered Australia, they always believed that swans were all white.”
"However, after arriving in Australia, they discovered a swan with black feathers. It was this black swan that completely overturned the conclusions of Europeans for thousands of years. It turns out that swans are not only white, but also black!"
“A black swan event refers to an event that is extremely rare, unpredictable, and has a great impact on history, economy and other fields.”
Fang Yan said: “Historically, an accidental rise of a political power profoundly changed the geopolitical trends, leading to a great conquest that completely changed the balance of power among different civilizations. Moreover, this rise was completely unreplicable and difficult to repeat. It can be called a black swan conquest event. "
Immediately, the example of "the Ottoman Empire collected tolls too harshly forced Europe to find a new route to the East directly."
“Wow! Wonderful!”
When Warren Buffett heard this, his eyes widened and his thoughts suddenly became active: "Charlie, this concept of 'black swan' and 'grey rhinoceros' is so applicable to financial investment."
Charlie Munger agreed very much, "So I highly recommend you You will definitely not be disappointed if you read his book."
"I not only want to read it, but also want to treat this wise man from the East to lunch after the lecture."< br>
Warren Buffett took over "Guns, Viruses and Steel" and felt like a treasure. (End of this chapter)