Chapter 196 Xiangdong
An Rusong's eyes turned around Luo Quanyi and Macaulay. Of course he had heard of Carlyle Investments, which is a global asset management company. The company is also a relatively alternative asset investment company, which has extremely far-reaching influence in the United States and even around the world.
Not to mention anything else, the core founders of this company alone have experience in serving in the US government and military, including former Secretary of Defense, former Secretary of State, former Assistant to the President, etc. Wait, the most important thing is that the first pot of gold for this company was obtained from the U.S. Army.
But An Rusong didn't know who the "Michael" Macaulay was talking about, because in his impression, Carlyle Investment did not seem to implement a partnership system.
"Yes," Luo Quan also nodded and said, "This is the news I just got in the United States."
"Don't believe the rumors of running away," Macaulay shook his head and said, "It's just a way to hide from others, at least that's what I think."
"Oh?" Luo Quanyi's beauty picked up Pick, the look in Macaulay's eyes was full of doubts.
“We can do an analysis based on the current reality.” Macaulay put his hands on the table and spread his palms upward. “A very clear fact at the moment is that America will definitely not be able to escape. This time the subprime mortgage crisis is over, the White House cannot save Wall Street, and the Federal Reserve The same is not possible, even if Japan and Europe are included, it will still be the same."
His words caused Mike and Luo Quanyi to chuckle. An Rusong is not an American, so he can't show off too much. He was gloating about his misfortune, so he picked up the tea cup in front of him and took a sip of tea.
“The news I received before is that the Ministry of Commerce’s import and export trade statistics for this year have actually been released for two weeks, but until now, they have not been released to the outside world because they are worried about the further deterioration of the economic situation,” Mike He smiled and added, "The data I got is 711.6 billion, which is the trade deficit data."
"More than one-third of it, to be precise, there is a trade deficit of 256.2 billion US dollars, which is caused by the Chinese," Macaulay took over the topic and said, "In addition, in less than a full year this year, , the Chinese have earned nearly 500 billion U.S. dollars in cash, and they hold more than 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange reserves. If we look at cash alone, the Chinese are the most talented people."
He said and gestured A big thumb.
“This reality is so shocking. Considering the reality of China’s economy and the current situation of America’s continuous interest rate cuts, I believe that anyone with enough capital in their hands will turn around and look elsewhere,” Mai said. Cowley spread his hands again and said, "And this is what those in Washington and even New York are most worried about."
An Rusong was listening, and he could understand what Macaulay meant. I can also understand the logic behind it.
Affected by the subprime mortgage crisis, the current economic environment in the United States is very bad. A large number of financial institutions are in trouble, leading to obvious expectations of an economic winter. Americans have no money and dare not spend excessively. This is quite fatal for a consumption-based economy like the United States.
In order to stimulate people's consumption and at the same time reduce the financial burden, the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, lowering interest rates that were once as high as more than 5 points. But a very real problem is that the reason why the Federal Reserve kept interest rates at a high level of more than five points was to attract the return of U.S. dollar capital and reduce domestic inflationary pressure.
Now that interest rates have dropped, it is not yet known whether consumption can be truly stimulated, but the outflow of U.S. dollar capital has already been reflected and is becoming more and more intense.
The most terrible thing is that the United States today is in a sensitive period when the subprime mortgage crisis is deepening. At this time, the outflow of capital will inevitably cause panic in the market. Once this panic takes effect , will inevitably lead to the second round of market collapse.
Look at the series of facts that have happened in the past period: first, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut, and then the United States, Japan, and Europe jointly funded the market support. During that period, the global stock market did prosper for a period of time. This also includes the United States. But in this process, some well-informed and keen-sighted capital has begun to flee from the United States, and some people have even begun to short-sell. As a result, as Japan's four major securities firms successively announced loss information, the panic effect appeared.
Of course, we are still in the early stages of the second round of collapse, and a near-catastrophic situation has not yet occurred. However, global asset management groups like Carlyle Investments are bound to take action first. , they need to do their best to avoid losses, and if they want to avoid losses, they must find safer and more promising investment places or investment projects.
At this time, Macaulay mentioned China's economic situation. There is no doubt that whether it is China's rapidly growing GDP, its annual surplus of up to 500 billion U.S. dollars, or even its 1.54 trillion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange reserves, it is vivid. It has shown a living reality to the world's capital, that is, China's economy is very prosperous, very stable, and extremely promising.
“Going to China” is not only something that the Korean business community and the entertainment industry are doing, it is also something that global capital is operating. It is even something that policymakers in Washington are considering. In the face of the surging After the subprime mortgage crisis, institutions like Carlyle Investments will definitely consider China as the best place to invest, where they can not only avoid risks but also obtain huge returns.
But this reality is obviously what the U.S. government least wants to see and is most worried about. Therefore, "doing something" against China must be something that the policymakers in the White House are considering.
As a reborn person, although An Rusong lacks understanding of the current policies of the United States, he is very clear about what will happen between China and the United States in the next period of time.
Today's United States is not very strong in manufacturing. The pillars supporting its economy are mainly three aspects: stocks, bonds and real estate. Of course, the hegemony of the U.S. dollar is also an important aspect, but to be honest, if the U.S. does not want its credibility to completely collapse, the Federal Reserve will not dare to engage in excessive issuance of U.S. dollars. In the final analysis, it still has to find ways to promote the return of U.S. dollar capital. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut policy has inevitably led to the flight of U.S. dollar capital. At the same time, the threat of the subprime mortgage crisis has collapsed the U.S. real estate economy. Coupled with the current stock crash, it can be said that Washington can rely on , there is only one bond issuance.
So, what Washington is thinking now must be to find a way to sell its own bonds, and it also has to sell a large amount of bonds when the world is not optimistic about the economic prospects of the United States. Sold for a good price. This will not only bring a large amount of valuable cash to the United States, but also boost global confidence in the U.S. economic prospects.
Then the question is, in the current bad economic situation, to whom can bonds that are generally not favored by the world be sold?
China!
China, with its 1.5 trillion foreign exchange reserves, is the best buyer.
"Yes, Carlyle Investments has now formulated a strategy to move eastward," Macaulay continued at the dinner table. "Asia, especially the Chinese market, is their most promising target. However, Carlyle Investments itself The nature of the company is somewhat sensitive. If it wants to directly enter Asia, especially the Chinese market, it will be subject to many restrictions. Therefore, setting up a new company is obviously the smartest and easiest way."
< br>Spreading his hands, Macaulay smiled and concluded: "So Therefore, there was the so-called news that six core personnel of Carlyle Investment had left. I said it was a cover-up move, and it was not wrong at all.”
“This is similar to the news I got. ," Luo Quan also nodded and said, " However, in my opinion, it is not important whether the core personnel are leaving. What is important is whether there is an opportunity to participate in the establishment of this new company."
"Why, you are very important. Do you like them?" Macaulay asked in surprise.
"Of course, I am indeed very optimistic about them," Luo Quan also nodded and said without concealment.
"You are very confident, Luo," Mike also interjected, "But I heard that their company has already been established. It seems to be called MBK. It is currently operating Daewoo Precision Machinery. It seems to have made some money from it, but this company has not Endorsed by Carlyle Investment, it seems that there are no plans to enter the Chinese market for the time being.”
“Is it Jin Bingzuo’s MBK?” Macaulay asked curiously, “I’m not paying attention to that. , but didn’t MBK already start it two years ago? The investment of 1 billion US dollars still caused some minor sensations at the time.”
As he spoke, he looked at An Rusong again and said with a smile. The momentum created by MBK at that time was much greater than that of NGN."
An Rusong smiled. He was just an observer now and did not participate much in the conversation because he was not interested in these things. Not much is known about it.
“It’s MBK,” Luo Quan also said with a smile, “It’s hard to say whether Carlyle Investments is planning to borrow the shell of MBK, or whether they already had the corresponding layout two years ago.”< br>
After a pause, he continued: "But those are not important. What is important is that I am indeed interested in MBK, no, to be precise, I am more interested in Jin Bingzuo."
"Why? , do you know him?" Mike and Macaulay asked at the same time.
“We worked together before, when we were at Solomon Smith Barney,” Luo Quan also nodded and said.
"Are you going to invest in MBK?" Macaulay then asked.
“Let’s talk about it first,” Luo Quan also said with a smile, “make an appointment with him next week. We can sit down and chat together.”
After saying this, he glanced at the faces of the three of them one by one. Seeing that the other party also looked at him with searching eyes, An Rusong nodded along with Mike and the others.
(End of this chapter)