Chapter 522: The Psychology of Card Drawing
“Let the players... draw more and more, the more they draw??”
Lilith was shocked, obviously this was something she had never thought of doing.
The current card drawing in krypton gold games can basically be described as "European and African conservation".
Although this is not the case individually, some players may always be European, and some players may always be negative, but overall, it is indeed conserved.
Some non-Emirati players are struggling to move forward because other European players are calming down in the years.
From the perspective of game manufacturers, except for a few really shameless manufacturers who choose to secretly change data and do nothing, most game manufacturers do not increase the probability of drawing cards in the game. Use hands and feet.
The reason is also very simple:
The positioning of krypton gold game manufacturers is strictly the same as that of casinos.
The casino makes money from rake, so no matter whether the gambler loses or wins, the casino will not lose money.
The scenario in many people’s fantasy of “gamblers winning too much and the casino won’t let them go” will never happen at all.
On the contrary, the casino will escort the gamblers back with great fanfare and publicize it vigorously. After all, the statement "the gamblers really won money in this casino" is conducive to attracting more people to gamble.
The same goes for krypton gold games.
Although most krypton gold game manufacturers will strictly control the shipment rate of the UP pool, players will always encounter situations where the advance payment is not available and the small guarantee is distorted, but in general, krypton gold games The manufacturer will still try its best to maintain the fairness and justice of the entire card drawing mechanism, and even welcome those European King players to spread special situations such as "even gold" and "double gold".
To break this situation, the krypton gold card drawing system must be made into a system that "most people are not satisfied with".
So Lilith’s problem is: “It seems okay to make players become more and more angry, but how to do it specifically?”
Gu Fan explained: “It’s very simple. Although the official requires all game manufacturers to indicate the number of draws. There are no exact requirements for the shipping probability in the card system.
“And the requirements are often the 'minimum value' and 'guaranteed value', rather than the most realistic value. Write out all the probabilities and mechanisms.
"In this case, it gives us a certain amount of room for maneuver."
Lilith nodded slightly, this kind of thing is not difficult to verify.
Just open any mobile card-gaining game and you will find corresponding instructions in the card-gaining system.
For example:
“In the UP pool of character A in this issue, the basic probability of obtaining a five-star character is 1.4%. When a five-star character appears, the probability of obtaining character A is 55%. The maximum number of draws is 140. A. "
If a similar description appears, it can be understood as follows:
Every time the player draws, there is a 1.4% probability of getting a five-star character.
But this five-star character is not necessarily the UP pool character that the player wants. It may also be some five-star character that is not very powerful in the permanent pool.
This is also explained: when a player draws a five-star character, which is commonly known as "withdrawing money", the probability of getting character A in the UP pool is 55%, which means there is a 45% probability of getting other unwanted characters. The most important resident pool five-star character.
But just specifying the probability is not enough.
Because according to expectations, the 1.4% probability means that it should be out at about 70 draws, but if it is a true probability, there must be a large number of players who are not out at 70 draws.
So, games are basically false probabilities.
The actual approach is that when a player has not withdrawn money after drawing around 60 cards, the probability of withdrawing money will be greatly increased when another card is drawn.
For example, before every time the probability did not come out, the probability increased by 1%, but after 60 draws, the probability increased directly by 5% or even 10%.
This ensures that players will definitely withdraw money before and after 70 draws, which triggers a "small guarantee".
For players, it takes 70 draws to withdraw money, which is already very strange.
However, if you actually analyze this system, you will find that in fact, game manufacturers have generally increased their shipment rates.
Those players who were lucky enough to withdraw gold did not need 70 draws; and those players who were unlucky and could not withdraw at 70 draws were forced by the officials to stuff a gold into their account at 70 draws.
So in actual calculation, the overall extraction rate for players to draw a five-star character is much higher than 1.4%.
But the game developer will not write the real probability, but will only write the most basic expected probability of 1.4%. For this, the official rules are completely allowed.
If the game manufacturer really wants to, they can also reverse virtual marking. For example, they say their game shipment rate is 1%, but in fact it is 5%.
But basically no manufacturer would do this. After all, high shipment rates of their own games are already a relatively conscientious act of profit-sharing, and of course they need to be publicized.
Even if the players are not grateful, it would be better if they curse less.
Players may not be able to feel the reverse virtual mark, and they do not feel that it is an official profit concession, they just feel that they are lucky. Isn’t that a free profit?
At this time, Gu Fan wanted to take advantage of this.
“Mr. Li, that’s what I think.
"First of all, the krypton gold system itself is a black box. Players actually do not fully understand what is in this black box.
"Secondly, although the official wants to check this black box, the official will not control everything. Mechanism, they only require that the guaranteed probability we promote is consistent with the real situation in the game. As for how it is consistent, there are no specific requirements.
“Based on the above two points, we can find a way to raise the players’ psychological expectations when their perception is not strong at the beginning, and then let them fall to the ground hard!
“ This is called "It is easy to go from frugality to luxury, but it is difficult to go from luxury to frugality".
“We design a krypton gold card drawing system that ‘as the number of draws increases, the probability of shipment becomes lower and lower’.
"Of course, this system needs to be somewhat confusing. We still have to distinguish European emperors and non-chiefs among the crowd, so that players can still have randomness every time they draw a card.
" In other words , all players comply with the general premise that the higher the draw number, the lower the probability of shipment. However, under this general premise, some are good and some are not.
“Our purpose is to make players feel vaguely that something is wrong, but they cannot fully confirm it.”
Lilith frowned slightly: “Can the official side agree?”< br>
Gu Fan continued: "This is the issue we discussed before: the official only requires that the basic extraction probability of five-star characters is not less than 0.5%, and the probability we announce must be real and cannot be false. , but can be reversed.
"So we can completely follow this rule and design a system of 'the more we draw, the more bad we are'."
"Our basic drawing probability of five-star characters is set at 0.5%, which is higher than the current number." Common krypton gold games are lower, but it doesn’t matter.
“Like other krypton gold games, we open two UP pools every month. The first half of the month is the UP pool for new characters, and the second half of the month is the UP pool for replicas of old characters.
"Our actual probability is:
"In the same UP pool, the higher the probability of shipment, the higher the probability of shipment, and the lower the probability of shipment
“Other games use 60 draws, 80 draws, and 160 draws as a cycle, but we use 1,000 draws as a cycle.
“Within 1,000 draws, the basic draw probability of our five-star characters is 0.5%. , the comprehensive extraction probability is 1.5%, but the extraction probability decreases successively.
"That is, the first 100 draws have the highest overall draw probability, and the last 100 draws have the lowest overall draw probability, but on average the overall draw probability can reach 1.5%.
"The previous one is better than other games The manufacturer has a good conscience, but later and on average it is worse than other game manufacturers.
“Because most players will not draw more than 300 cards in each card pool, there are multiple UP pools, and the overall shipping probability of the UP pool in the front is relatively high, while the UP pool in the back The overall probability of shipment is low
“When it reaches a certain level, it will bottom out and recalculate.
“For example, we have two UP pools in the upper and lower half every month, and players spend money in the upper half of the pool. I earned 300 draws, and spent 200 draws in the second half of the pool. Then the next month, I earned 300 draws in the first half of the pool, and 200 draws in the second half of the pool.
"At this time, he will obviously feel that this month is much different than the last month, and the second half of the pool is much different than the upper half of the pool.
"It will Producing a feeling of 'the more you smoke, the less you feel'.
“But when he draws 1,000, he will bottom out and recalculate, and the probability of drawing will increase again, so that he will not be depressed enough to quit.”
Lilith felt a little brain-burning, and she frowned in thought.
After a long time, she nodded slowly: "It sounds reasonable."
This principle is actually very simple, it is just a psychological effect.
From a probability perspective, this approach is actually not fundamentally different from that of other game manufacturers.
(End of this chapter)