Chapter 1334 The third most populous country in the world (two in one)
Mbeya City.
The current round of census work in East Africa is much more difficult and workload than it was ten years ago.
Ten years ago, it was still in the era of complete planned economy. At that time, population mobility in East Africa was weak, and the direction of population mobility was very clear and clear. Due to policy restrictions, traveling to other regions required various procedures.
Since the opening of the market, East Africa's population control has been greatly reduced. Under the economic market, the mobility of people has increased, and the regularity is not strong. After all, at this time, population mobility is completely money-oriented, which Wherever more money can be made, the population will naturally flow there.
The ways to make money are diversified and unpredictable at all, so this makes the population flow in East Africa completely chaotic.
Otwis Town.
This is a town under the jurisdiction of Mbeya City. In order to investigate the regional population situation, staff from the Mbeya City Statistics Bureau had to go deep into the rural grassroots.
Now two staff members of the Mbeya City Statistics Bureau, Wundt and Rhine, are conducting surveys in the village of Amforst under the town of Otwis.
Wundt and Rhine are both young people. At this time, they are talking to the village chief Dill at the village committee of Amforst Village.
Wundt took a document and said to the village chief of Dill: "Mr. Dill, the document in my hand is a summary of the household registration records of the town of Ottervis. According to the archives of the town of Ottervis, The village of Amfoorst under its jurisdiction, that is, your registered population here, has a total of 3,208 people. After our verification, the current population of this village The actual resident population is 2,097 people.”
“We want to know the specific whereabouts of the 1,111 people who are not in the village. We also want to know the recent births of the people in the village. and the circumstances of the death, I wonder if you know anything about this?"
Facing two public officials from above? Mayor Dier said with a smile: "The current population of our village is roughly the same as the data. Although I don't remember the specific number of villagers in our village, it is definitely more than three thousand."
"As for those who are not in the village, I don't know the specific whereabouts. In the past, if everyone wanted to leave the village, they had to If you need a letter of introduction or other documents, you will have to ask me, the village chief, to get it stamped. "
"However, since 1910, the country no longer restricts the normal movement of the population, so if the villagers leave the village, there is no need. After the review work, maybe because of a random idea, I went to another place.”
“With the opening up of policies in recent years, many people have chosen to work in other places to subsidize their families, especially during slack seasons. Some people even stay away from home all year round, and some have already moved their household registration to other places.”
< br>With the passing of the era of completely planned economy, people in East Africa now have greater freedom of travel, and the village of Amforst is a typical example. Almost half of the village's population is outside, and this is obviously not all.
For example, in some families, the couple may go out to work together, and there is a high probability that they may give birth outside the home. This may cause the child to have no time to return to the village to register his household registration.
In addition, in the early days of East Africa's economic opening up, social order was relatively turbulent and social security issues were chaotic. Those people may have disappeared due to accidents, but their household registrations were still in Amforst Village, or other factors This distorts population data, which requires verification by the East African government.
In the following days, Wundt and Rhine, as well as the grassroots cadres of Amforst Village, began to focus on these detailed issues through inspections, visits, phone calls, etc. The actual population of the village of Forster.
And just from the situation in the village of Armforst, we can see the difficulty of the census work. In the village of Armforst alone, the phone calls are almost smoking in order to check the population.
Therefore, it is difficult to complete the census work solely by relying on the East African Bureau of Statistics. Other departments of the East African government have also joined in, or actively cooperated with the census work.
But even so, in the end, the East African government cannot guarantee the complete accuracy of statistical data. In fact, even in the 21st century, an era of highly developed information, it is difficult to ensure complete accuracy in census work.
……
Although the census work is progressing slowly, the East African government still obtained the approximate population data of East Africa.
This is actually normal. East African citizens are bound to their household registration. Except for some who have not yet had time to register their population, or who have not had time to update due to unexpected events (such as disappearances and deaths) or who have illegal households, the household registration situation of the vast majority of East African residents is normal. .
So the East African government only needs to conduct preliminary statistical compilation and summary of the national household registration to obtain the general population situation of the country, and this is the "preliminary verification". As for the data distortion and errors caused by other unexpected circumstances, In fact, the overall impact is minimal, especially for a populous country like East Africa.
After all, East Africa was a large country with a population of over 100 million as early as ten years ago. For a family, if it loses one person, it is definitely a big deal. But for a country with a large population like East Africa, unless it is caused by Except for large-scale population losses caused by wars, plagues, etc., some details are less important.
Rhine City.
Director of the East African National Bureau of Statistics Langfurter and Minister of Civil Affairs Wollnitz and other departments reported the preliminary population statistics of East Africa to Ernst.
"Your Majesty, based on the preliminary compilation of domestic household registration data, without considering interference from other factors, as of the end of 1918, our country's total population reached 163 million, and the urban population accounted for more than 34%. That's about five thousand five hundred and forty The rural population is over 107 million.”
“In other words, our country’s current population size is roughly the same as that of Tsarist Russia before the war, but considering that Russia’s land area is now significantly larger. shrinkage, plus now the Russian Civil War, and Previous wars between Russia and the Allies and other situations.”
“Russia’s population has definitely not increased but declined, which means that without considering colonies, our country has officially replaced Russia and become the third most populous country in the world. , more advanced than the last time statistics were collected "
Before World War I, the population of Russia fluctuated between 160 million and 180 million. This is according to the last census data of Russia in the last century, and Results derived from Russian population birth and death rates.
The last official census of Tsarist Russia was in the 1990s, when Russia advertised a population of more than 130 million.
Moreover, at that time, Tsarist Russia was in the sunset and occupied a large amount of land such as Ukraine and Poland. However, after the Russian Labor Party came to power, it lost a large amount of land, and Russia's land area shrank from more than 20 million square kilometers to nearly 20 million square kilometers. .
The areas lost by Russia are all densely populated areas in Europe or the Black Sea coast. Coupled with the brutal civil war in Russia today, Russia's population may even drop below 100 million.
And even if Russia may regain lost territory in the future, it will not be able to surpass East Africa in terms of population. After all, according to data from previous lives, after the Russian Civil War, even if the Allies were defeated, Russia would get back the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk 》land, but later official Soviet data showed that Russia’s population still declined significantly.
According to preliminary population data, East Africa has officially replaced Russia as the third most populous country in the world. The countries ahead of East Africa are the Far Eastern Empire and the United Kingdom. The United Kingdom's population ranks second in the world mainly because of India. Therefore, whether the United Kingdom is calculated or India is compared separately, it will not affect East Africa's status as the third most populous country in the world.
This data does not include the colonial population in East Africa. After all, East Africa does not care about or pay attention to the specific population of the colonies. The colonial population has always been relatively rough, and the East African government will not seriously verify it.
After all, the local population verification work alone is already overwhelming the East African government departments, and it also consumes a lot of manpower, material and financial resources. If the colonial population is being verified, it will be too difficult for the East African government staff. .
Generally, the census work in the East African colonies is handled and reported by the colonial government itself. The East African government only needs to have a general understanding. For the East African government, as long as the colonial population is larger, the better. After all, the colonies It is the future East African population reservoir built by Ernst to deal with issues such as the aging of the local population in the future.
So, as long as it can be confirmed that the colonial population has been increasing, Ernst's psychological expectations can be met. In fact, it is very difficult for the colonial population in East Africa not to increase. This does not require the East African government. Lots of support available.
After all, the fertility level of the population that can immigrate to the East African colonies will not be lower than that of the natives, even if the living standards of the colonies are far different from those of the native East Africans.
Compared with the colonial population, the native population data was obviously more meaningful to Ernst, and Ernst was indeed very happy after learning that the population of East Africa exceeded 160 million.
Although this data is only the preliminary result of statistics based on household registration records and may not be accurate, the final population data of East Africa should be quite different from this data.
At this population size, even if there are a few million more or a few million less people, the impact on East Africa will be very weak.
However, there is a high probability that the final data will be higher than the preliminary results, so 160 million is only a conservative number.
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Ernst said: "Our country's population has exceeded 160 million, which also confirms the fact that our country has become the third most populous country in the world, and population represents productivity."
"The urban population has exceeded five Ten million. I am afraid that only the United States can reach this level in the world. Even our urban population ratio France or the United Kingdom have a larger population. "
In 1918, the population of the United States was close to 100 million people, but the urbanization level in the United States was higher than that in East Africa, perhaps even close to 50%. level, which means that the urban population of the United States is likely to be around 50 million.
Of course, this means that the urban population of East Africa is only about five million more than that of the United States, which is obviously a bit unreasonable. After all, East Africa has replaced the United States as the world's largest industrial country, and the quality of East Africa's industrial development is Slightly inferior to those in the United States.
In other words, the industrial profits of the United States are higher than those of East Africa for the same volume. What's more, the service industry and financial industry of the United States are more developed than those of East Africa. These industries can also support the development of cities.
Therefore, taking into account all factors, if the urban population of East Africa is only five million more than that of the United States, then it would be unreasonable for East Africa's industrial output to surpass the United States and become the world's largest. After all, the quality of industrial development in East Africa is not as good as that of the United States.
Soon, Ernst realized this problem. He said to Langfurter, director of the National Bureau of Statistics: "Our country's urban population should be more than this! After all, our industrial production capacity was only a few years ago. It has surpassed the United States and become the world's largest industrial country."
Director of the National Bureau of Statistics Langfurter said: "We are actually very aware of your Majesty's doubts, but this is not a mistake in our work, but a mistake in our work. It's normal . ”
“This time we only collected preliminary data on urban household registration, so we finally got the value of 34% of the urban population. However, many years ago, my country’s urbanization The level exceeded 30%.”
“In recent years, East Africa’s economic and industrial development has been accelerated by the impact of the war, so the 34% figure seems a bit unreasonable at first glance. .”
"But we cannot ignore that the current urban population structure in East Africa has changed. In the era of planned economy, my country's urban household registration population basically conforms to the overall urban population data."
"But since 1910, my country has opened up After a series of policies and the relaxation of freedom restrictions, the value of household registration has been greatly reduced in East Africa.”
“Many people with non-urban household registration have poured into cities. Many of them have not become urban residents, but have remained. Farmers Although they have village household registration, these people do indeed live in cities.”
“So, the current resident population in my country’s cities must be much higher than the 34% ratio, according to our estimates. , if the permanent population with non-urban household registration is included, the proportion of urban residents in the country may exceed 40%.”
“However, the accurate data ultimately depends on the final accounting data at the end of the year. The initial core is only suitable for rough reference. ”
As Langfult explained, Ernst and other high-level officials in East Africa suddenly realized that this was the difference between the registered population and the permanent population.
This was something Ernst felt deeply about in his previous life. In his previous life, the Far Eastern Empire had many residents with non-urban registered permanent residence living in cities. Take the capital of the Far Eastern Empire as an example, its registered population is only over 10 million. When calculating the permanent population, it can reach more than 20 million. If some floating populations are also included, it will only be even more exaggerated.
So the urban population in East Africa, if calculated in terms of permanent population, is very likely to exceed 60 million or even higher.
In this case, the permanent population in rural areas of East Africa may not reach the level of more than 100 million. Of course, this is a good thing for East Africa. Development to this day, unless East African society no longer progresses , then the rural population will inevitably gradually decrease.
For the time being, the urbanization level in East Africa is estimated to be 40%, which is already a very good result for East Africa.
After all, the more populous a country is, the more difficult it is to industrialize. If it wants to further support the industrial development of East Africa, it can only steal food from the established imperialist powers.
The tens of millions of extra industrial people in East Africa have ruined many people’s jobs. After all, the growth rate of the world market is far slower than the expansion rate of industrial production capacity. This has also been the case since the mid-to-late 19th century. At the beginning, the world economic crisis was concentrated, violent and frequent.
Of course, this also shows that from the 19th century to the early 20th century, countries around the world were at the forefront of whether they could achieve success in one fell swoop. If they grasped this opportunity, they could quickly become industrial countries and become members of imperialist countries.
In the mid-19th century alone, there were five emerging industrial countries: Germany, Russia, the United States, East Africa, and Japan. This era was a truly diversified era. As long as we made good use of the contradictions between big countries, we could benefit from them. Profit.
Under unipolar hegemony, the mobility of technology, knowledge, and talents is the worst. Just like in the 21st century in the previous life, the world order was almost stagnant. Even if many countries worked hard enough, they would eventually fail in victory. On the eve of the war, it became a harvest of American hegemony.
(End of this chapter)