Chapter 540 Prediction
“The key is that the dilapidated ship is also at risk of sinking, and if it sinks, several sunken ships will also drag down the only newly built ship. .”
< br>“When a disaster strikes, cutting off cables to survive is the best option for big ships, isn’t it?”
“But ECU does play a role in stabilizing European currencies and reducing the monopoly of the US dollar, doesn’t it? "Jack countered Question: "The European currency basket gives everyone a safe-haven option when the U.S. dollar encounters risks. Therefore, configuring the European currency basket will be the choice of financial institutions around the world. Based on this, the first person to grab the egg will be , you will definitely enjoy the dividends of hatching chicks."
"Yes, what you said is indeed correct." Zhou Zhi did not deny this: "However, chicks are the most vulnerable and will surely die. Attracting the covetousness of poisonous snakes.”
At this time, the fax machine next to the phone began to spit out paper with data, and Douglas began transmitting monetary and financial data on Hong Kong Island.
“The world’s reserve currency structure was dominated by the US dollar before. The Germans and the French created such a European monetary system with a very clear purpose, so clear that everyone in the world understands it.”
< br>“Americans know very well.”
“The British This country is very interesting. After experiencing World War I and World War II, it has been regarded as the staunchest ally of the United States in Europe."
"But even the staunchest political ally cannot do so if its strength allows. Tolerating an ally to have a tube in his body that can suck blood at any time.”
"By having a share of the global reserve currency cake and sitting at the big table that determines pricing in international financial markets, we can have the opportunity to cut off the suckers. The UK joined EMS in 1990, and then joined Maastricht in February this year. "Special Treaty", the attitude has been very clear."
"Yes, this is the basic reason why financial institutions around the world are optimistic about the pound and continue to sell, driving the pound and related currency products higher," Jack said. .
“We can imagine that if the pound officially begins to fulfill its obligations in the EMS, then half of the pricing power of international commodities will shift from sterling pricing to ECU pricing. In the next trade stage, international In many areas such as liquidation and foreign exchange reserves, there will be a comprehensive battle for the dollar.”
“If all this really happens. If the British pound withdraws from the stage of history, European monetary policy will no longer be dominated by the British pound. Can the United States still maintain its strong influence on British foreign policy? Can it still influence Europe's domestic and foreign affairs through the 'British wedge'? ”
“If there is no chance, the United States will still hold back for a while, but the security strategy of EMS is itself fragile.”
"Zhou Sheng, are there any signs of the fragility you are talking about?"
"A very simple example, currently in Western Europe, including the United Kingdom, only Germany is maintaining economic growth, and the momentum is still very strong. It has even begun to overheat.”
“To cool down the overheated domestic economy, Germany must raise interest rates and tighten measures. The policy of tightening currency. "
"On the contrary, non-German European currency basket countries have experienced economic recession."
"For example, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Belgium. , Finland and a large number of other European countries, the economy has experienced high inflation, low growth, and increasing unemployment.”
"Cutting interest rates to stimulate the economy is an inevitable choice for these countries. This contradiction in that basket is almost irreconcilable."
"If Germany can assume the responsibility of the leader of ten countries and give up individuals for the overall benefit, Interest, EMS is an iron chain The fleet may still be saved.”
“But what did Germany do? Look at this data. In July this year, the Bundesbank ignored the request from the last G7 summit to cut interest rates. , brazenly announced an interest rate hike, raising the discount rate from three percentage points to eight Point seventy-five!”
“This is a very wise choice for Germany itself, but its choice will inevitably lead to an imbalance in the currency interest rate between the German mark and other countries. People can take advantage of this opportunity."
"Mr. Li, please. Based on what you know, where are the main sources of funds used by financial institutions that have previously opened positions in European currencies? "Given the temperament of the Americans, the previous use of U.S. dollar-pegged crude oil to snipe SPDR shows that they will not give up. ”
"The current cessation of activity is actually just secretly building a position and preparing for short selling!"
"Short selling... the currencies of ten countries?" Jack was stunned by Zhou Zhi's statement: "How big is that?"
"A scale of tens of billions of dollars, but don't forget, there is also such a thing as financial leverage." Zhou Zhi smiled: "And there is no need for it at all. To short-sell the currencies of ten countries, all you need to do is pick up the persimmons and squeeze them softly. Let me see..."
"For example..." Zhou Zhi shook the list in his hand and quickly found one. Currency: "The Finnish mark, the Finnish mark is linked to the German mark, but Finland's economic recession is severe, and it has become the currency most closely related to the German mark, but with the largest interest rate differential!"
"It is a very simple thing to open a position in the German mark and short the Finnish mark, and it does not cost much money to complete. After that..." Under the reminder that the big event that will happen in later generations will definitely happen, Zhou Zhi quickly found it again. Two very dangerous currencies: "Italian lira, or Belgian franc."
"The method is very simple. When you sell the French franc and the German mark, just sell those two currencies short."
>< br>“When things reach this point, EMS will slip into an irreversible abyss, and international hot money will inevitably join in the eating of ECU like bloodthirsty sharks.”
“And short sellers are powerful If it rises, we can take action against the currencies of major countries.”
“They can’t hit the German mark because it has a strong economic foundation; they can hit the French franc, but the profits are not huge enough.”
"To maximize profits, it goes without saying that short sellers should hold the currency that has been open for the longest time, has the largest scale, and has reached an absolutely dangerous high - the pound!"
"This is the only possibility!"
"Well..." The other end was probably studying the data while on the phone: "Sheng Zhou, We still need to study your prediction before we can draw a conclusion..."
"It doesn't matter, you can just study it," Zhou Zhi said, "But I hope that I and Jin'an Company will be entrusted with it. The fund can be implemented according to my pre-judgment plan."
"You tell me."
“The first step is to short the pound when the pound breaks 2 and add short positions in index products.”
“The second step is to refer to the German government’s response if the pound starts to turn downward. If the German central bank insists on maintaining the interest rate of the German mark, we can regard it as a position signal. "
"The third step is to pay close attention to the trends of the Finnish mark, Italian lira, and pound, as well as the movements of the three central banks. action if If the Finnish Mark is not broken, then even if I lose, if I sell the short-term product and stop the loss, I will accept the loss.”
“But if the Finnish Mark is broken, it means that my prediction is initially successful. Then I will hold positions in the Italian lira or the Belgian franc and continue to observe the trend of the pound after the situation becomes clear."
"Zhou Sheng, have you considered the possibility that central banks of various countries will join forces to rescue the market? asked Jack.
(End of this chapter)