Chapter 113: When will the Jinling singing and dancing end? (4)
Compared with the amount of total social funds, the total number of goods on the market is always in shortage.
This iron law was particularly evident when the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991. With the disintegration of the alliance countries and the collapse of social order, the huge wealth accumulated by the former Soviet Union through decades of hard work disappeared overnight. Because when the crisis came, the Soviet people instinctively invested all their money in the retail market to hoard goods. It was impossible for any country's retail market to bear such a huge and intensive instantaneous capital flow. The only result was basically Prices of daily necessities have soared, while goods unrelated to daily life have experienced widespread depreciation.
Even if it were the United States, it would not be able to withstand such a drastic change - even if the U.S. dollar was still the world's currency at that time, if tens of trillions of U.S. dollars poured out of the "currency reservoirs" such as stock markets, funds, and banks, all the money would be lost. If we rush to the retail market, the world market order on the entire planet will collapse in an instant: because all the countries in the world combined cannot provide daily commodities worth so much currency in a short period of time!
Under such circumstances, mind-numbing hyperinflation is inevitable regardless of whether those in power are printing money like crazy or not.
Just the huge amount of cash that panic forces out of various "currency reservoirs" such as the stock market, funds, banks, etc. is enough to bring the market to an end!
In the same way, a similar situation occurred in China at the end of the Ming Dynasty, which dealt a fatal blow to the crumbling Ming Empire.
——When Zhu Yuanzhang established the Ming Dynasty, in order to achieve the goal of lasting family business for generations, he implemented an agriculture-led national strategy. Not only did he symbolically open up farmland in the palace, he also took the prince to inspect the countryside many times, telling them that this was the foundation of the entire Ming Empire.
Focusing on the operation of agriculture, Zhu Yuanzhang designed a series of systems to build China into a super large rural area.
The entire civil service system of the Ming Dynasty revolved around agriculture. They cleared household registrations, measured land, and formed a huge data network as the basis for collecting agricultural taxes. In rural areas, grain chiefs are selected for every certain number of household registrations, and their task is to collect grain. After the grain is collected, each local warehouse has a dedicated ambassador (custodian). The task of transporting grain to the capital and the border was also completed by specialized water transport troops and designated farmers. Governments at all levels have household registration data files. People on the land have corresponding household registrations according to their respective occupations, and military registration and civilian registration cannot be confused. Farmers can only stay at their registered address and cannot move around at will. Everything is strictly regulated.
In order to deal with the nomads in the north, the Ming Dynasty retained a huge army of one million people in the early days of the Ming Dynasty. However, the extremely poor national finances at that time could not support such a large army. Zhu Yuanzhang still adopted a very rural approach to solve the problem - the farming system stipulated that each guard station (military region) had its own land, 30% of the soldiers were used to defend the city and fight, and 70% of the manpower was used to farm. Tian, feed yourself.
The Ming court directly distributed rice and cloth to officials. Because what the people pay taxes on are agricultural products such as rice and cotton. Regarding local infrastructure construction, Zhu Yuanzhang also had a way - in addition to paying taxes on rice, cotton, etc., ordinary people in the Ming Dynasty also had to contribute to the government free of charge. In the so-called tax system, fu refers to taxes, and servitude refers to corvée, which means to spare a period of time to work for the government for free, such as building roads, water conservancy, etc. In short, farmers farmed and paid taxes when they were busy, and built infrastructure for the government when they were free. The government collected grain and paid it to the public, the army plowed the fields and fought, and most of the handicraftsmen worked in the royal factories in the capital. Regardless of taxes or wages, all they received were rice and cloth. There is no internal demand for change and development, either politically or economically. Such a super stable static system is almost like a mummy and can theoretically remain incorruptible for thousands of years. Zhu Yuanzhang was obviously proud of his ability to maintain his appearance. Those familiar with history may have a sense of deja vu. Yes, this is the economic system of the Han Dynasty.
But don’t forget that the system of the Han Dynasty was tailor-made for China in BC, and fifteen hundred years had passed by the Ming Dynasty. Twenty or thirty years ago, when you held a Big Brother, you were a fashionable and wealthy person that everyone envied; if you still hold a Big Brother to show off now, you are an antique that everyone laughs at.
Using grain and cloth as the standard currency is very uneconomical in peacetime - grain will go moldy, and a large amount of storage will be lost every year. Moreover, bulk grain is also very heavy to transport, and the cost of transferring it from one place in the country to another is astonishing. What's even more terrible is that during the Hongwu period, the food revenue of the court was 29.4 million shi, during the Hongzhi period it was more than 27 million shi, and during the Wanli period it was more than 28 million shi. In the thirty years of reform and opening up in modern China, national fiscal revenue has increased fifty-fold, and the fiscal and taxation of the Ming Dynasty has remained unchanged for two hundred years. Zhu Yuanzhang's mummy is really incorruptible for thousands of years. While the total revenue remained unchanged, various expenses such as royal salaries and official corruption gradually increased, eventually leading to financial bankruptcy.
Therefore, by the middle and late Ming Dynasty, this antique financial system, which was somewhat similar to the Soviet wartime economy, became increasingly overwhelmed and finally collapsed. In this regard, knowledgeable people in the Ming Dynasty turned their attention to silver: if taxes were changed to silver, it would be easier for farmers to pay and transport. Hoarding silver will neither mold or rot nor be eaten by insects, so there is no loss. Moreover, transporting silver is much more convenient than transporting rice.
As a result, there was Zhang Juzheng's whipping method, which was the great fiscal reform of the Ming Dynasty. His basic idea was to merge all the original taxes and corvees. In the past, farmers had to provide rice and labor. After the whipping method was introduced, as long as the farmers paid silver, they didn't have to worry about anything. The government used the money to hire people to build houses and carry out water conservancy projects... At this point, silver replaced food and became the blood to maintain the operation of the Ming Empire.
But the problem is that the rulers of the Ming Dynasty lacked modern financial knowledge. They only regarded silver as a very convenient management tool. They did not realize that silver and food were different - it was not a consumer product, but just a currency that represented purchasing power. It’s changing all the time!
——Whether in Jiangnan or Saibei, one stone of grain can feed a person for at least three months. But if you exchange it for one tael of silver, the number of goods you can buy in Jiangnan and Saibei is completely different!
For example, after the fiscal silver reform, farmers switched from transporting ten stones of rice to the border and handing it over to the army to handing over silver at a corresponding price. The government took the silver and then bought rice for the border army. On the surface, the front and back seem to be the same thing, but in fact there is a lot going on.
According to the procedures, farmers in Henan, Shandong and other places paid taxes according to the local price of one stone and five coins of silver. The silver was then sent to the border by the court. However, there is not so much food on the border market, and the price of rice is bound to rise. Five coins of silver will certainly not buy a stone of rice, and the military's interests will be lost invisibly. What's more serious is that in the past, frontline armies hoarded food. After the silver reform, everyone believed that with money, you can buy anything, and there was no need to hoard food. Whenever there is a war on the border, the army must attack in large quantities and must temporarily purchase large quantities of food, causing food prices to soar. The food that usually cost five or six cents per stone would now cost three taels of silver per stone! As a result, military spending has virtually increased six times. Paying salaries to court officials was even more troublesome. Every time the salaries of court officials were paid in Beijing, the prices of daily necessities such as food and vegetables soared. In the end, the court was forced to issue special regulations. Some people were not allowed to buy vegetables in the city after receiving their salaries, and had to go to the suburbs to buy them.
The above situations are only short-term price fluctuations. As for the long-term price trend, it is even more worrying - since the advent of the Age of Discovery, because of foreigners' desire for Chinese porcelain, silk and other specialties, the gold and silver excavated by Europeans from the Americas, and the gold and silver excavated from Japanese islands All the silver mines produced are flowing into China continuously, and the total amount is at least several hundred million taels, which is equivalent to a huge round of quantitative easing.
But the strange thing is that although hundreds of millions of taels of silver flowed into China, causing the currency quantity to skyrocket, commodity prices in the Ming Dynasty still remained at low levels all year round and did not cause very serious inflation. During the Zhu Yuanzhang period, one stone in the south of the Yangtze River The price of rice is Two cents and five cents of silver, equivalent to two hundred and fifty copper coins, rose to five cents of silver in the middle of the Ming Dynasty. This price remained for another hundred years or so. Until the end of Wanli, unless there was a special natural disaster, Jiangnan's The price of rice has never exceeded one tael per stone. The prices of other foods are not too expensive either: chicken costs four to five cents per catty, pork costs seven to eight cents per catty, and sesame oil costs ten cents per liter. One tael of silver can enable a family to set up a running banquet.
For the same one tael of silver, under the rule of Emperor Wanli and Emperor Kangxi, its actual purchasing power differed by more than ten times!
It can be seen that despite the large influx of silver into China in the late Ming Dynasty, the currency circulation and the quantity of commodities in the Ming Dynasty still maintained coordination all year round - obviously, in the absence of an industrial revolution and overseas colonization, the social productivity of the Ming Dynasty was very low. It has not been explosively improved. ,
Therefore, if prices can still remain stable, then there is only one reasonable explanation: most of the silver has not entered the market circulation, but has been sealed up - although the nobles, officials and rich men of the Ming Dynasty all knew that silver could be used as currency Use it, but because of the nature of Chinese people who like to save money, they prefer to keep it. Dear wealthy households, if there is any surplus from your annual income, you will either use it to purchase land or turn it into silver ingots and hide it away, and you will not be willing to spend it at all. For example, Shanxi merchants once cast silver into large silver nuggets weighing several hundred kilograms and stored them in cellars. They were known as "ghosts see sorrow" (little thieves couldn't steal them even if they touched them). Even for ordinary people, if they have money, they usually hide it for later use.
As a result, astronomical amounts of silver were sleeping in the mansions of officials, nobles, landlords and gentry, invisibly acting as the central bank to regulate currency, making the amount of currency circulating in the market always limited, maintaining the stability of Ming Dynasty's commodity prices, and maintaining This has contributed to the strength of the silver price comparison.
But this false price stability was only temporary. During the Tianqi years, prices that had remained unchanged for a century finally began to rise rapidly.
——Since the Saarhu War when the Jurchens rose up in the last years of Wanli, the world has become chaotic. Natural disasters struck during the Little Ice Age in the late Ming Dynasty, which greatly reduced food output, but the quantity of money did not decrease, so food prices began to rise. In the first month of the first year of the Apocalypse, the palace posted a notice to select a concubine, causing panic among the people. In order to prevent their daughters from being snatched into the Forbidden City by eunuchs, a wave of emergency marriages swept Beijing. To get married, you need to buy things, and the wine, fish and meat for the banquet immediately became a scarce commodity. Just one month later, price inflation that had been hidden for a long time broke out, and the prices of daily necessities skyrocketed. From this moment on, one tael of silver in Beijing could no longer buy one stone of rice.
Since the amount of silver on the market at this time far exceeded the amount of commodities, a small fuse detonated the entire imperial economic system. This excessive market reaction soon caused widespread panic, and prices of all goods on the market, from grain to cloth, from land to houses, began to rise across the board. And this further stimulates those who hold silver in their hands - silver is worthless! what to do? Of course, they are selling off quickly and hoarding consumer goods such as grain and cloth. The result is a further vicious circle, causing the price of silver to fall even further!
During the Apocalypse years, because the imperial government could still barely function, although hyperinflation had begun, the price increase was not very fast.
During the Chongzhen period, which was marked by wars and successive droughts, agricultural production was further damaged by rogue bandits and natural disasters raging in the interior, and the chaos of social order forced people to start hoarding supplies. Silver that had been sleeping in cellars flowed into the market in large quantities. Participating in the transaction will lead to an increasing gap in the market, and the prices of various commodities will naturally rise rapidly. It is common for one stone of rice to be sold for five taels of silver.
If we were in modern society, faced with this terrible situation, the government would use strategic material reserves to stabilize prices. The problem was that the imperial palace in the late Ming Dynasty had been completely embezzled, and Emperor Chongzhen did not have such material reserves at all. So he just felt that the more money he got in the palace, the less money he got down there. Faced with this situation, no matter how much money he has, he will still feel scared, let alone how little money he actually has in his hand.
As a result, Emperor Chongzhen continued to press for more silver, and repeatedly blamed local officials for their ineffectiveness in collecting payments. But he, who is in the ninth level, does not know that with the rapid decline of agricultural productivity and the continuous decline of grain production, the more silver is allocated, the more prices will skyrocket, and the shortage of silver will appear. The speed at which the court distributes money will It can never keep up with the speed of market price increases - this is the same reason why Chairman Chiang Kai-shek printed gold yuan coupons to issue military pay. In the first year of Chongzhen, the supplies purchased with three million taels of silver per year might be enough to sustain an army of hundreds of thousands in Liaodong for continuous battles. However, by the end of Chongzhen's reign, due to the skyrocketing prices, five million taels of silver per year might not be enough. A mere 30,000 to 40,000 Guan Ningjun made a living.
Don't think that silver will not depreciate. In fact, in the late Ming Dynasty, the purchasing power of silver was not as strong as the RMB in the 21st century!
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Under the rule of Emperor Yonghe of Nanjing in this time and space, the supply and demand situation of materials in the Jiangnan market was also deteriorating rapidly.
There is no way, although the south of the Yangtze River is not suffering from disaster at the moment, whether it is the war spreading in the north of the Yangtze River or the situation in the world where the two emperors are confronting each other, in the minds of the people, it means the collapse of social order and the imminent war. And as wars continue to ignite in all directions, the Jiangnan water town has become the last haven and lifeboat in people's minds. I don't know how many people are pouring into this last pure land, without considering whether this small land can withstand the war. To live in—the large number of refugees who fled from Jiangbei created a pre-apocalyptic prosperity for this city.
——Although these fleeing people have left their homes, most of them have some money with them. After arriving in Nanjing, they needed food to satisfy their hunger, houses to live in, and medicines when they were sick. And all these basic necessities have to be exchanged for the goods they carry with them. If they run out of money, they have to sell their labor at the lowest price, or go for smuggling and abduction, just like the illegal immigrants of later generations.
As a result, with the influx of a large number of people from other places, Nanjing's market is now showing a kind of abnormal prosperity - public security is rapidly collapsing, market transactions are booming, and the prices of daily consumer goods are rising. The rapidly accelerating inflation, in turn, caused panic among the people in Jiangnan. In the past, the silver they could not wait to save in bed and kiss a few times every day was now extremely hot to touch. Everyone was eager to turn the accumulated silver into cloth, Grain, salt and any daily consumer goods... As a result, as many as hundreds of millions of taels of folk silver in the south of the Yangtze River spewed out.
——Just like when the Soviet Union collapsed, the raging war in the Jianghuai region and the Nanjing court's support of the new emperor were like a big hand squeezing a sponge, releasing a huge amount of private savings. As a prosperous place since ancient times, Jiangnan has always had the largest number of rich people in the world, not to mention so many Yangzhou salt merchants who moved their families south with their money... thus forming an unprecedented currency craze in the market. !
In this way, Pandora's box was completely opened. Silver, which had been dormant for many years, woke up one after another and flooded into the market like a volcanic eruption, turning into a white terror that created a hyper-inflation... Starting last month, the price of rice in Nanjing began to rise explosively, reaching a peak three days ago. It cost ten taels of silver and one stone, and now it seems to have increased a lot. The unit of measurement of grain prices has also changed from the previous stone to liters. The price of pork has also risen to 360 wen per catty, which is equivalent to fifty times the price during the Wanli period! The inflation in the era of metal currency is completely comparable to that of Germany after World War I, Japan that failed in World War II, and the Kuomintang-controlled areas in the late stages of the Liberation War! The money in the hands of many people has turned into waste without knowing it!
——The "archaeological team" of time-travelers who came to Nanjing for inspection just caught up with this wave of price increases, which led to a sudden increase in expenses.
As for the outbreak of hyperinflation, the Nanjing court's basic response was to ignore it, and was even suspected of adding fuel to the flames - this Communist Party, which adhered to the Donglin Party's policy of "light corvee and low tax", both received Without much tax and little food and material reserves, it is impossible to stabilize prices. Not to mention that many court officials secretly instigated their families to hoard food and further increase food prices... in order to make huge profits.
"...it is still relatively short before food prices start to skyrocket. However, compared with last year, food prices in Nanjing have increased two or three times, and prices will definitely continue to rise in the future, thus driving up the prices of all daily commodities. Go up. If we take this opportunity to transport grain to Jiangnan, we will definitely make a fortune! Do you want to try it?" said the old history professor who seemed to have studied ancient economics.
Regarding this attractive-sounding suggestion, Wang Qiu and Political Commissar Guo lowered their heads and thought for a moment, but ultimately chose to reject it.
"...Hey, I think I'd better forget it! Although this business sounds like a good profit, if you really do it, I'm afraid it will be a lot of trouble."
Wang Qiu shook his head and replied, "...First of all, we don't have sales channels in this area, and we can't sail warships directly to Yanziji, Nanjing. No previous traveler force has ever dumped food in Jiangnan. Temporary contact I don’t know how much effort it will take to get up. Secondly, since Jiangnan has those hands and eyes. Tongtian's unscrupulous grain merchants are now deliberately hoarding grain and rice, further raising prices, and want to take a huge profit from the people in the market. So if outsiders like us rashly import a large amount of grain, wouldn't they be ruined? Good thing? God knows what kind of revenge there will be!
Third, before we sold millions of stones of rice, wheat, corn and potatoes in Tianjin, and in exchange for so many refugees who needed food rations for resettlement, the two union republics in the Americas no longer had much food surplus. Especially for rice, not much can be squeezed out for trafficking to the south of the Yangtze River.
Fourth, even if we successfully complete such a large-scale grain transaction, what will we earn in the end? Tens of thousands taels of silver? ”
He said with some disdain, "...the Chinese League currently owns the mineral deposits of several continents. It does not lack money, land or any other resources at all. The only thing it lacks is population. And if we do not use force, There is no way to collect a large number of immigrants in Jiangnan..."
"…So, let’s just give up on this idea that has no real benefits! And you don’t have any extra time."
Political Commissar Guo added with a serious expression, "...the Allied forces' Jiangnan strategy has entered a countdown, and a landing battle will soon be launched. We are here specifically to take you out of enemy-occupied areas...at the latest We have to leave tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. Are there any other scenic spots you want to see? ”
Yu Guozhen exchanged glances with several old professors, thought again, and finally replied: "...there are other scenic spots, but there is also the Baoen Temple Tower located outside the Jubao Gate. I want to see it anyway - This thing was destroyed by the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom and no longer exists in the modern world.”
After a while, when night fell, standing on the balcony of a two-story building in the house, Political Commissar Guo and Wang Qiu squinted their eyes to the south. Sure enough, there was a bright place. It was said to be the spire of the Pagoda of Baoen Temple. The temple tower is made of colored glaze. Under the light of the lights in the temple, the colored glaze on the top of the tower is dazzling and brilliant, in sharp contrast with the dark city. Even from a long distance, it is still amazing.
"...Is this the Pagoda of Bao'en Temple? Well, it is indeed interesting, but the city gate has been closed today. It may be a bit troublesome to leave the city. Let's seize the time tonight to pack our luggage, and we will go out of the city to see Bao'en Temple tomorrow morning Tower!”
The next day, after temporarily hiring an errand boy to send a farewell letter to Fang Yizhi, Yu Guozhen, Wang Qiu, a group of old professors and senior Ma Tong, who was still suffering from a hangover, rushed to the university. Cars and boxes were carried out of the city from Jubaomen, preparing to visit Baoen Temple before leaving Nanjing... After walking out of Jubaomen, the tall glazed pagoda was as conspicuous as a landmark. In comparison, the other temples in the temple seem ordinary.
The stunningly beautiful glazed tower is located in the center of a wide square, surrounded by crowds of people who come to visit and worship. The entire pagoda has nine floors except the base. Each floor has eight sides, each side is covered with white porcelain. The pagoda is inlaid with many five-color glazed bricks depicting Buddhist themes such as lions, white elephants, and flying sheep. It is extremely exquisite. The top of the pagoda is It is all made of glazed tiles and decorated with jewelry, gold and silver items, shining brightly in the sun. Strings of wind chimes hang under the corner beams on each floor, emitting bursts of sweet chimes in the breeze.
Although everyone has seen all kinds of magnificent skyscrapers in the modern world, and has seen the night view of this glazed tower from a distance in Nanjing City before, when all the travelers who have traveled through the journey have really stood there When we walked under this glazed pagoda, we were still deeply shocked by its momentum and elegance - it is worthy of being a magical building that was listed among the seven wonders of the medieval world! The supreme treasure of human art and engineering in this era!
"...This pagoda is seventy-eight meters high and has a base circumference of one hundred meters. It took nineteen years to build and cost more than two million taels of silver. Since the pagoda was built in the Yongle period, the one hundred and forty ever-burning lanterns on the pagoda have never been lit. extinguished, so the lanterns were bright and conspicuous at night. It was sometimes called the No. 1 Tower in the World, and was also known as the Central Tower. Hua Zhiguang. Many overseas people must pay homage when they arrive here. Until the end of the Opium War in 1841, when British warships arrived in Nanjing to sign the Treaty of Nanjing with the Qing Dynasty, the first thing the British sailors did when they disembarked was to go there. Visit the Glazed Pagoda of Dabaoen Temple ”
An old professor leaned next to Wang Qiu and explained with great interest, "... Zhang Dai, a famous litterateur in this era, once wrote an article about this pagoda, saying, 'The great antique of China is the greatest of Yongle. Kiln utensils, then the gratitude tower is also'..."
Next, everyone went to the Glazed Pagoda to visit the Buddha statues and murals, and secretly took out their cameras to take pictures countless times in this exquisite art palace. The old professors have been observing and observing for a long time, but they are still not satisfied - "...Oh, it is indeed a beautiful and immortal masterpiece! Unfortunately, when the civil war in the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom came, Wei Changhui was afraid that Shi Dakai would observe the situation in the city from the tower, so he actually put this The Glazed Tower was blown up, it’s really disgusting!”
An old professor touched the mural on the wall and muttered reluctantly, "...I really want to see it for a few more days..."
"...Well, it is indeed a pity to have such an art treasure destroyed by war. Now the city of Nanjing may not be peaceful for much longer."
Looking up at this ingenious and exquisite ancient building, Wang Qiu nodded in agreement, "...How about...how about we take it back as a souvenir?"
As he said this, his eyes lit up with excitement, and at the same time he quietly took out the [Shrinking Lamp] from the package...
—— Late that night, a strange news happened at Baoen Temple in Nanjing: the glazed pagoda that had been standing in the temple since the Yongle period actually disappeared, leaving only a big hole in the ground... After the news spread, the whole of Nanjing was shocked. The sensation caused an endless stream of people from all over the country to Baoen Temple to investigate, making the monks in the temple want to cry. This unbelievable incident has naturally become a hot topic among Nanjing citizens.
However, another half month later, the hot news topic that the people in Nanjing paid most attention to was replaced by another equally unexpected news: "...Urgent report! Urgent report! Southern thieves are coming from the sea to attack Hangzhou. ! ”