Chapter 1214 Short sellers and trusts
"Lao Qiu, how are you doing there?"
"In recent times, the S&P 500 index on the Chicago Futures Exchange has fluctuated around 1,400 points these days, and the price of a contract is about 350,000 US dollars.
If you sell 50,000 or 60,000 contracts directly and spend more than 20 billion US dollars, the market will still fluctuate greatly.
I suggest that like Hongyan shorts individual stocks, use stock index option tools, such as buying put options for the S&P 500 index."
Xu Liang nodded slightly.
The principles of index options and individual stock options are the same. Find an opponent to gamble together, but the target or gambling tool is different. One is gambling index and the other is gambling stock price.
In the second wave of the 'Zhurong Plan', Hongyan and Hanhua each have their own division of labor.
Hongyan is responsible for the stock market, and Hanhua is responsible for the bond market.
The two sides cooperate with each other, but each has their own goals and directions.
"Okay, you can do it. When the final plan comes out, just show me a look."
In his memory, the three major U.S. stock indexes, the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Index, seem to be less fierce than some individual stocks falling.
Take the S&P 500 Index as an example, it is like the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. It selects hundreds of listed companies and adds them together according to different weights to form a representative data called the index, which reflects the changes in the entire stock market and is also what people often call the market.
However, Xu Liang believes that the S&P 500 stocks such as Lehman Brothers and AIG will definitely outperform... and win the market after falling.
From this perspective, it seems that shorting individual stocks can make more money.
But his current amount of funds is too large, so he will short all of them, which is difficult to operate and has great risks.
"In addition to these two methods, we can also consider shorting or longing ETF funds."
Qiu Heng continued: "Take the S&P 500 ETF funds as an example, we can choose to buy ETF funds that are triple shorting or shorting ETF funds that are triple longing, both of which can achieve the goal of shorting the index."
ETF index funds refer to index funds that can be traded on stock exchanges like stocks. In fact, they represent the ownership of a package of stocks. Its trading price and fund share trends are basically the same as the index tracked.
For example, the S&P 500 ETF funds have an index of 1%, and the funds have also risen by 1%.
The triple long ETF fund mentioned by Jiang Ping is slightly different from ordinary ETF funds. It is the index rises by 1% and the fund rises by 3%.
The triple short ETF fund is the other way around, the index fell by 1%, and the fund rose by 3%;
The index rose by 1%, and the fund fell by 3%.
No need to pay a deposit, no need to worry about losing the position, you can enjoy the joy and excitement of double making money... and double losing money.
"With the TRS total income swap tool, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley provide us with triple leverage, and multiply by triple ETFs to short the fund, which can achieve up to nine times the effect of leverage.
There are great risks, but the benefits are also great.
In addition, regarding the risk of liquidation, you only need to focus on the triple leverage of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
I think we can allocate a small amount of ETF funds to achieve the effect of diversifying investment and reducing the impact.
At the same time, one issue needs to be paid attention to - loss of the volatile market.
In a market where a one-way rise or one-way fall, leveraged ETF funds can play a role in amplifying returns.
In the volatile market, after a few days of fluctuation, the index returned to its origin. The net value of ETF funds without leverage remains unchanged, but the net value of ETF funds with leverage will decrease.
In addition, the management fee rate of leveraged ETF funds is relatively high, more than 20 times that of ordinary ETF funds, and the annualized fee rate is nearly 1%. "
Xu Liang nodded slightly. If there are advantages, there will be disadvantages. It is impossible to be perfect. Otherwise, everyone will buy triple long ETF funds for the S&P 500 index.
From past development experience, major U.S. stock indexes will always recover lost land. If you can hold it, you will definitely make money, but the returns will not be too high.
But adding triple leverage is very considerable. Not only do you have to worry about losing positions, but the returns will also be triple.
It seems that it is very suitable for long-term investment, but leverage friction can kill ordinary investors.
Xu Liang nodded, "Okay, ETF funds have also allocated some, are there any other short-selling tools?"
"VIX Panic Index!" said Sun Zhenping.
Xu Liang thought for a little while, "Are you talking about the unpopular thing that measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500 index on the 30th day?"
"Yes, it's it.
The higher the VIX index, the more it means that investors smelled the danger and were worried about the stock market;
The lower the index, the more it means that the stock index changes will be relatively calm. ”
VIX vividly reflects the degree of panic among investors about the future market, so it is also called the "panic index" or it can also be called the volatility index.
Generally speaking, even in a bear market, the VIX index will not change much, and it will be a slow down trend.
But once an economic crisis that is enough to shake the global market, the unpopular VIX index can soar!
Many option traders who are well versed in this trick are using derivatives to short the VIX index, which is simply making money while lying down.
Many financial institutions have also targeted this new track.
They will take the initiative to release some plausible false news, causing the decline of several individual stocks or an industry.
Even if the VIX panic index is only a few points at an elevation, it can bring huge returns to investors when leverage is added. "I think we might as well take some money to bet with them. Maybe the VIX index can create an all-time high, and the returns are very considerable."
Xu Liang pinched his chin, and the panic index was actually a bet against the future.
Will you take a roller coaster ride in the US stock market and the S&P 500 index next?
Will the market fall into panic?
He remembered that there was a news report in his previous life that there was a courier retail investor in the United States who had been firmly shorting the VIX index for five years, betting that the United States would not have a financial crisis, and its national fortunes were booming, and it had been a big bull market.
And then accidentally turned my $500,000 into $15 million.
The operation is very single and mechanical.
But if the other party makes money easily, it is just hindsight.
After all, it is too difficult to integrate knowledge and action in this world. There are so many retail investors who chase the rise and fall, but they rarely see awesome retail investors who can persist for five years, from dusk to dusk, from low to sublimation.
It was so tormenting to see the money in my account being lost quickly.
But Xu Liang is different. He is not sure about the future of the panic index at other times.
But he knew very well that VIX would definitely be out of the box in the context of the outbreak of the sub-debt crisis.
"Add the VIX index to the investment list. Add leverage and invest at least $10 billion, either make a fortune or just throw it into the water."
With that said, he knew that he would definitely not lose.
Sun Zhenping opened his mouth and subconsciously wanted to persuade the big boss to reduce the risks. After all, leverage of 10 billion US dollars is completely unsuccessful.
The risk is too high.
However, all their hedging investments are gambling now.
Either lose your bet, lose your underwear, or you will win, and make hundreds of billions of dollars.
Grieved his teeth and swallowed the persuasion back.
Looking at his expression, Xu Liang smiled and said nothing.
The VIX index was created in 1993. In 2004, the Chicago Options Exchange began to link futures and options with the index. It did not develop for a long time, but the trading scale increased rapidly.
However, there is still a big gap with the mainstream S&P, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average, and it cannot carry too much capital, otherwise it will invest more.
"Futures, options, ETF funds, and volatility of the three major indexes."
Xu Liang simply calculated and had to sigh that finance was all played with by Americans. It was just an index. He created such a lot of derivatives and built derivatives on them.
"Hanhua is responsible for the investment in these index derivatives.
Lao Qiu and Lao Sun, you two actively communicated during this period and took out the specific investment plan and gave me a look."
"Okay." "No problem."
The two nodded quickly.
The excitement of doing big things made their blood flow rapidly, and their expressions became excited and anticipated.
"Everyone, the next year will be the most critical year since the establishment of Hongyan and Hanhua. We have succeeded this year. Hanhua and Hongyan can not only make huge profits, but also go further in the global financial field and become a world-class comprehensive financial group.
You will also get enough wealth to get you on Forbes’ global rich list!
In order to achieve this goal, I announce..."
The three of them instantly became solemn, and their eyes were staring at the big boss on the screen.
"From today on, Hongyan Strategic Investment Department and Hanhua Hedge Fund Department canceled all leave. Relevant personnel are not allowed to take leave unless they encounter family members' deaths, illnesses, etc.
Double wages during holidays.
Employees who performed well during this period have doubled their bonuses. "
Xu Liang has always believed in the principle of "If you want a horse to run fast, you have to feed more grass", so he is not stingy whether it is salary or bonus.
"I thank you for them. "
The three of them hurriedly said.
Xu Liang waved his hand, "I won't say polite words. Let's drive here first. You can go back and prepare according to what you agreed just now. ”
"Okay."
The screen soon became dark.
Xu Liang sat on the chair for a while, passed all the content he had understood before in his mind before getting up and leaving the conference room.
Shortly after coming to the study, Li Jinling put a "Phoenix Fund" investment report in front of him.
The Phoenix Fund, which raised $20 billion last year, specializes in investing in unlisted companies.
At present, Xu Liang has put 31 targets in it.
50% of the NBA Warriors' options, 5% of Facebook's equity [excluding Netflix, Twitter, Telecom and other businesses].
Alibaba's 16.5% stake.
Hynix 10% equity.
It just consumed US$12.7 billion in Phoenix Fund.
The rest is basically the equity of the startup company invested by Hanhua. "Mr. Lu said that the 'Phoenix Fund' currently only has 1.7 billion US dollars left. Are you considering raising the second phase?" Li Jinling asked. "The funds are used so quickly?" "We have invested in too many startups. Many projects have certain development prospects, but slow monetization is achieved." Xu Liang nodded and thought for a moment.
"Tell him that this is not a good opportunity to raise the second phase of funds, so let him spend the funds in his hands first."
"Okay."
"Is there anything else?"
"Mr. Jiang called and said that all the assets Hanhua planned to sell had been cleared and the detailed information had been uploaded to your encrypted email." Xu Liang was shocked and quickly turned on the computer driven by curiosity.
Seeing this, Li Jinling also left with tactfulness.
After entering a lengthy password.
The email address was opened, and there was indeed a large email worth nearly 1GB.
After clicking on it, the computer buffered for a few seconds before the content pops up.
Hanhua Financial Group, which has been developing for nearly eight years, is undoubtedly huge.
Although it has not yet been able to complete the great undertaking of Xu Liang's envision of Lehman Brothers' international business, Standard Chartered Bank and AIA.
But Hanhua, which owns securities, venture capital, private equity, hedging, insurance, asset management, wealth management, trust, and the Internet, has become a world-class financial giant.
The first is Hanhua Securities. After years of development and acquisition of some overseas small and medium-sized securities companies, Hanhua Securities has now formed a business network covering almost the entire Asia, including China, Japan and South Korea, Southeast Asia, and West Asia.
Owned 329 branches [including Huaxia].
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Strictly speaking, Hanhua Securities is a huge business platform, with stock underwriting, mergers and acquisitions and restructuring, business consulting, futures, private banking, asset management, etc. all its business scope.
Boiled by Xu's and other businesses of Hanhua Group, although Hanhua Securities was established, it has developed very quickly.
In 2007, it generated $6.38 billion in total revenue, equivalent to one-eighth of Goldman Sachs, an increase of 28% year-on-year.
Commercial customers exceeded 3200 and individual customers exceeded 2.49 million.
Among all of Hanhua Securities' business segments, private banking and asset management have the fastest growth.
The reason is also very simple, Boss Xu is famous.
The financial circle is full of gold hands and is known to more and more people.
Although Mr. Xu never asked about Hanhua Securities' specific investment business, he still couldn't stand everyone sending the money.
Under this background, Hanhua Securities manages assets of US$87.3 billion.
If Hanhua's judgment on the subprime mortgage crisis is finally proven to be correct, then the total scale of funds for Hanhua's asset management and private banking business will undoubtedly soar.
Next is Hanhua Trust, which currently has 152 branches in Asia and Europe.
It is emphasized here that domestic trusts are very different from overseas trusts.
First of all, there are three rights and interests in property: control, ownership, and beneficiary rights.
Overseas trusts follow the ownership of the Hengping, that is, when the assets are placed in the trust, all control and ownership must be handed over.
The client not only loses ownership, but also loses control, so that he will not be considered a false trust.
Domestic trusts are guided by domestic trust law, and only ownership is handed over to the trust company, and the control is still in the hands of the principal, which is different from the overseas trust structure.
So false trusts are often mentioned abroad, because the control rights are not handed over and are considered false trusts.
The most famous one is the case of Zhang Lan's Singapore Family Trust Piercing.
The reason it was judged as a false trust was because of the issue of control.
She often issues instructions to the bank saying that she wants to buy land assets and needs funds.
The expression means that this is my asset and I have control.
And her account service provider did not file a rejection or was not reminded, and might be considered a false trust.
So, if the trust is not recognized as for the purpose of inheritance and isolation, its assets will be recovered by the creditor.
Difference 2:
Domestic trustees must be trust companies, and foreign trustees are much wider [even companies, individuals, law firms, financial institutions, and non-professionals can serve as]
Difference 3:
The things you do are different.
Domestic trustees, namely trust companies, must not only manage transactional management, but also be responsible for investment management to help customers make money.
Overseas trusts only conduct transactional management and do not conduct investment management, so they must choose another financial institution for investment management.
Differences 4
The range of beneficiaries is different.
The beneficiary of domestic family trust must have a blood relationship with the principal.
Overseas beneficiaries can be very broad, and they may also be pets, such as Lafayette.
God Lafar fell in love with a cat in his later years, and finally gave most of his inheritance to the Siamese cat through trust, which was jointly managed by a lawyer and a nanny.
The whole trust is worth RMB 2.1 billion, and this cat has become the richest cat in the world.
Of course, Lafayette's relatives and friends were dissatisfied, appealed, challenged the will and trust, and eventually lost the case.
Ah, people are not as good as a cat!
Reincarnation is indeed a technical job.
Different points 5
Delivery asset categories.
The majority of domestic financial assets are the same, and the wider overseas is: real estate, stocks, jewelry, yachts, aircraft...
This is because the domestic trust asset registration system has not been established yet, such as real estate, listed company stocks, and equity have no registration system. If it is to be placed in the trust, it is considered a transaction transfer, and the taxes and fees are relatively high.
Using a real estate trust, buy and sell, at least 20% of the tax and fee cost.
Different points 6:
The asset subjects are different.
Domestic trusts will have a trust account in the bank to accumulate funds.
Overseas trusts hold movable and real estate in the form of a company entity.
Differences 7
Does it be anthropomorphic.
Overseas trusts have legalized the trust and have independent tax numbers.
Domestic trusts do not have anthropomorphic or legalized forms, but a certain trust is registered with CITIC and does not have an independent tax number.
Last point:
Excess business returns.
Overseas trusts only have transactional management and no investment management, so they do not have excess performance returns.
Domestic trusts also need to do investment management, so they also need to charge excess business returns for annual yields.
For example, the target investment return rate is 6%. If it exceeds it, the excess return will be divided by 1, 9 or 2, 8.
However, Hanhua Trust is different from domestic trust companies.
Except for force majeure, such as those stipulated by the Trust Law, which cannot be changed.
Hanhua Trust, like overseas trusts, only conducts transactional management and does not conduct investment management.
The reason is very simple. Within the entire Hanhua Group, there are departments that specialize in investment, such as Hanhua Securities, and Hanhua Capital.
There is no need to set up investment business under Hanhua Trust.
It is better to specialize in transactional management and acquire customers in this area with more standardized business and content.
Hanhua Trust is developing very slowly due to its short establishment time, lack of background, and lack of foundation in trust business in Asia.
So far, the number of customers is less than 10,000, and the assets under management are only US$17.46 billion.
If it were not for the blessing of the Hanhua brand, the number of assets would be even smaller.
Among the major business models under Hanhua, Hanhua Insurance is the slowest-growing company.
In recent years, Hanhua Insurance has not expanded its overseas business, but has focused all its energy on domestic, and mainly focused on raising licenses.
Now, the four major licenses of life insurance, property insurance, pension insurance and health insurance have been obtained.
But the best development is life insurance.
After all, this is Hanhua’s starting business.
The second is auto insurance in property insurance.
Xu owns Torch, the country's top comprehensive automobile group, and one-fifth of Biarty's equity. Dealers of both companies sell Hanhua's auto insurance.
In 2007, Hanhua Insurance's total revenue was 15.3 billion Huaxia coins, barely squeezing into the top ten insurance industry in the country.
The next is ‘Snowball Net’. With the abundant financial support of Hanhua, Snowball Net is no longer just in China.
But it has become a professional financial information website with 18 languages including Chinese, English, Portuguese, Japanese, Korean, etc., and truly covers the world.
Although due to its weak background, it is still far from financial media giants such as the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, and the Bloomberg.
But these institutions are not professional Internet companies, and the design and design of website design and typesetting, as well as functional and humanized, are too poor.
Snowball.com is unique with its more humanized design.
It has become the most browsing professional financial website in the world.
Although it has been criticized by many industry personnel for not being professional enough, its content is too superficial, and even misleading people's children, it just can't stop the old bacon and new leeks from liked it.
Especially the forum section.
The discussion on individual stocks is in full swing.
At present, the global registered users of the entire Snowball Network have exceeded 70 million.
The early stage of the website has passed, and the company must spend money to make an appointment with professionals and provide high-quality content.
Now, many world-renowned investors and institutions will actively write high-quality content on their channels to attract users and increase their popularity.
There is more and more tap water, and the development of "Snowball Net" is getting healthier and healthier.
The company has gradually changed from loss to profit.
However, in order to avoid excessive commercialization affecting the user experience, Xu Liang always controls the advertising delivery of "Snowball Network".
At present, it is basically based on a small number of display advertisements, as well as keyword advertisements and embedded advertisements.
In the entire 2007, Snowball Net received $360 million in revenue and $54 million in net profit.
Compared with the giants, this little money is pitifully low.
But Xu Liang didn't care.
He does not lack channels to make money, but lacks a mouthpiece that can affect the entire industry.
The industry influence of ‘Snowball Network’ is more important than profit!
Next is Hanhua Capital.
This is the origin of Hanhua and the earliest business.
In the past eight years, Hanhua Capital has expanded from Beijing to Beijing, Magic City, Pengcheng, Xiangjiang, Singapore, Tokyo, Silicon Valley, New York, London, Paris, Dubai, Sao Paulo, and Toronto, with a total of 13 offices.
And offices have been established in South Korea, Switzerland, the Netherlands, South Africa, Australia, New Delhi, Wanwan, Saudi Arabia and other places.
The final upgrade to an office depends on the development of various places.
(This chapter ends)