Chapter 410 October
The more "The Wolf of Wall Street" hits the scene, the greater the chance of winning an Oscar.
With the right place and right time and the right people, he couldn't think of any movie that could compare to "The Wolf of Wall Street" at the Academy Awards in early 2009.
Because, the timing of this movie’s appearance is really perfect.
In this special period, "The Wolf of Wall Street" is so close to reality that if it doesn't win the award, it will definitely be controversial.
Of course, the premise is that the finished film of "The Wolf of Wall Street" can be guaranteed to be above the standard.
If the finished film is too stretched, it will be in vain even if it adapts to the situation.
Seeing that Wang Shu was silent, Matt Damon couldn't wait to continue: "Lehman went bankrupt, the stock market was turbulent, and many measures were introduced, but it didn't help."
"I heard. A financial crisis is very likely to break out."
After that, he sighed, "A financial crisis."
"This time, if a financial crisis really breaks out, it will have a huge impact."
"Our "The Wolf of Wall Street", taking advantage of this incident, is likely to become famous all over the world."
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“This movie is both a biography and close to reality.”
“If a financial crisis really breaks out, there is a 90% chance of winning the Oscar at next year’s Academy Awards.”
I didn’t say 100% because the 10% was because Wang Shu didn’t ruin the movie.
Wang Shu understood what Matt Damon meant, and even said that he knew this exactly, so he rushed to film "The Wolf of Wall Street".
Under normal circumstances, you have to go through qualifications to get the big prizes at the Academy Awards.
As a Chinese-language film director who first came to Hollywood from China, it is impossible for Wang Shu to win an Oscar in a short time.
"The Tuner" has certainly achieved good box office results.
If this movie is directed by a senior director in Hollywood, he may win an award based on his seniority.
Directed by Wang Shu, "Strong to Death" was only nominated.
Also, it is not certain whether I will be nominated.
As I said before, it was not the quality of the movie, but other force majeure factors that made it impossible for Wang Shu, who was new to Hollywood, to be nominated and win awards right after he arrived.
This kind of behavior is boosting the Chinese film industry, boosting China’s morale, and destroying Hollywood and the prestige of the United States.
Politically incorrect.
Wang Shu knew this, so he had a backup plan.
Moreover, if you don’t take action, that’s it. Once you do, it will be ruthless.
In the original timeline, "The Wolf of Wall Street" was originally an Oscar-nominated film.
Nomination indicates that you have the ability to win a prize, but it is just a matter of lack of interest or luck.
Today, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has completely broken out, and the global financial crisis has followed closely behind.
During this period, "The Wolf of Wall Street" was released in this atmosphere, which is equivalent to a masterpiece.
It can be said that the movie "The Wolf of Wall Street", whether it was released before the financial crisis or after the financial crisis, is at best an Oscar-nominated movie.
Yes. When it is released during the outbreak of the financial crisis, its meaning and influence will be completely different.
Under such circumstances, even if Wang Shu first arrived in Hollywood, he would have a high probability of winning an Academy Award.
As the saying goes, times make heroes, it is nothing more than this.
Those old men at the American Academy of Motion Picture Arts certainly don't want to award the Oscar to Wang Shu, a young foreign director who has just arrived in Hollywood.
However, as long as the US subprime mortgage crisis escalates into a global financial crisis.
To this extent, the impact will be too great.
"The Wolf of Wall Street" is another biographical film that closely follows current events
If it fails to win the award, the Academy Awards will be criticized.
In short, under the general trend, those old men at the American Film Institute
have to give even if they don’t want to.
Of course, if the old men at the American Film Academy don’t care about public opinion and the impact of doubts on the Oscars, it is not impossible not to award them.
So, Wang Shu’s goal is to be nominated.
It’s great if you can win the award, but there’s nothing you can do if you can’t win it.
After all, this is Hollywood, on American territory, not at home.
It is different after all.
But no matter what, as long as those old men at the American Film Academy still want to show their respect, Wang Shu has a high probability of winning the award.
Because the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis will inevitably evolve into a global financial crisis.
With the nature of its global impact, "The Wolf of Wall Street" is a work that responds to the situation and will inevitably be pushed to extremely high heights.
It makes sense to win the prize.
In fact, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has already emerged, but the U.S. government not only did not take it seriously, but was also quite complacent about the bubble and engaged in various outrageous operations.
2004-2006 were the three golden years of real estate development in the United States. During this period, most indicators indicated that the U.S. economic situation was good.
The economic growth rate is relatively stable at 3% to 4%, the unemployment rate is lower than the long-term average, between 4% and 5%, and the inflation rate is between 2% and 3.5% most of the time, although it is slightly higher than the ideal level. , but it’s not worrying.
At this time, expenditures and incomes are increasing steadily, and the GDP gap has reached 2%, which means that the country’s ultimate production capacity growth rate is lower than the demand growth rate. With everyone’s shopping spree, production capacity has not kept up. Not on.
House prices benefited from increasingly loose lending practices, rising by about 30% from 2004 to 2006.
The ratio of loans to value increased to 80%, which means that the down payment ratio of buying a house is lower, indicating that banks are more willing to lend and make riskier investments. Mortgages are everywhere. In order to transfer money To lend out, banks don't even need proof of income. They even use floating-rate mortgages with "fraudulent" attributes to lend money to the poor. The initial interest on such loans is very low, but will slowly increase later.
During this period, the ratio of debt to disposable income of American households increased from about 85% to about 120%. In other words, Americans began to increase leverage to buy houses.
Amidst the accumulation of debt and the frenzy of the real estate market, the U.S. economy is not overheating and the inflation rate remains moderate, so the Federal Reserve, which only focuses on average numbers, remains unmoved.
Typically, the worst debt bubbles (such as the United States in 1929 and Japan in 1989) were not accompanied by high and rising goods and services inflation, but by debt growth supported by Asset price inflation is moving higher.
Central banks often make the mistake of tolerating debt growth because they focus on goods and services inflation and economic growth, rather than on debt growth and the ability of the debt to generate the revenue to service the debt. Not only are banks lending money at a ridiculous pace, but other lending institutions that are outside of bank supervision are also forcing large amounts of money into borrowers' mouths. These American "borrowing bars" borrow money from banks. , then loaned money to the people, and sold the IOUs issued by the people to the people, breaking their bones and sucking out their marrow, step by step dragging the people into the abyss of bankruptcy.
Although many people want to do this kind of good way to make money without capital and profit, it has to be said that the debt crisis in the United States originated from these cunning operations.
The so-called subprime loans refer to Americans who simply cannot repay their debts.
In 2007, the world twisted its fat body and danced on the foam.
The continuous credit leverage from 2004 to 2006 caused the bubble to inflate bigger and bigger. The poor were crazy about buying properties and the rich were crazy about making money.
Investment banks have been racking their brains to design new products, cleverly packaging multiple assets and selling them at a price higher than the combined price of each part (these products include debt-backed securities, mortgage-backed securities, synthetic debt-backed securities wait).
The specific approach is to divide the products into different series, and let the rating agency rate the best series as AAA, the next series as AA, and so on.
This financial innovation provides a source of credit to many high-risk borrowers (not limited to households) who previously had no access to credit.
On the surface, these securities assets can indeed share risks. The losses caused by one person's cessation of supply are equally shared among the entire securities pool. Therefore, as long as most people pay interest honestly, investors can still have stable returns. .
But subprime lenders (companies that make mortgages to borrowers with poor credit) gave out loans to people who couldn't even afford the first month's interest.
The SEC wrote in a Jan. 4 memo: “The current general consensus is that as the refinancing and housing boom winds down, many smaller subprime lenders business model is no longer viable."
There is an agreement called "early monthly payment default" between subprime mortgage institutions and the investment banks that purchase subprime mortgages. The agreement contains such a clause: If the borrower defaults on any early monthly payment, The lender then needs to repurchase the loan.
In fact, unless there is fraud, borrowers rarely fail to make their first monthly payment.
2007 was a very happy year for the US financial market.
All kinds of wins, all kinds of records, winning is crazy.
In this atmosphere, ordinary people in the United States have fallen deeper and deeper, and their fall has become more miserable.
As long as the American people suffer worse, the more they will praise the movie "The Wolf of Wall Street".
After all, under this tragic situation, the affected American people will inevitably vent their dissatisfaction and anger.
"The Wolf of Wall Street" not only gives a direction, but also implies that ordinary people are the victims, and the culprit of harm is another "person".
In short, the release of "The Wolf of Wall Street" not only gave the affected American people an "outlet", but also allowed the American people to understand to a certain extent why this happened.
The more this happens, the more it will prompt "The Wolf of Wall Street" to "become a god" during this period.
The right time, place and people are all here, it’s just the right time.
Not to mention being able to "become a god" in the United States, it can also have considerable influence in China.
Because, Wang Shu knew that the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis would inevitably extend into a global financial crisis.
Domestically, it has also been affected.
In response to the financial crisis that spread from the United States to the world, the country quickly launched the "4 trillion" plan
Zhongyangzf invested 1.18 trillion yuan (including financial allocation for Wenc earthquake reconstruction) , local governments invested 2.82 trillion yuan.
In order to cooperate with the implementation of policies and help local governments with financing, Zhongyang has also relaxed restrictions on local financing platforms and bank credit.
In 2008, there were more than 3,000 financing platform companies across the country. In 2009, the number surged to more than 8,000, of which about 60% were county-level government financing platforms.
Rapid and violent economic stimulus is necessary to boost the rapidly deteriorating economy, but the result of flooding will inevitably be muddy and sandy.
Places with poor financial conditions can also borrow large amounts of money, and projects with worrying profit prospects can also receive large amounts of financing.
At the same time, the real estate industry began to take off, with all kinds of land being sold at sky-high prices, and floods had somewhere to go.
If local governments want to develop their economy, they have to acquire land and "sell land."
Use low-cost industrial land to attract investment. When companies come, the economy grows, there are more jobs, and public services are improved, the rural population gathers in large numbers in cities, and expensive commercial and residential land also It's coming.
The high housing prices have also caused the debt/income ratio of ordinary people to rise significantly, and some people's income can no longer cover their debts. In this way, no matter how fast the city develops, no matter how good the infrastructure is, and how perfect the public services are, people may still feel If you are not happy, you will not dare to spend money, because personal debt does have uncertain risks. Who knows whether the good work done today will be available tomorrow?
The country's rapid economic growth over the past few decades has been due to land finance and the hard work of the people. However, high growth is unsustainable.
After all, people are not machines and have thoughts.
As for land finance, in the final analysis, the people still foot the bill.
In short, as long as the country is affected by the US subprime mortgage crisis, Wang Shu's "The Wolf of Wall Street" will definitely be praised by many people.
This is certain.
“What do you think is the probability of a financial crisis?” Wang Shu pretended not to know and followed Matt Damon’s topic.
“It’s big!” Matt Damon said firmly, “Although I don’t know how big the impact of this financial crisis will be, it will definitely have it.”
Wang Shu He nodded and responded: "If a financial crisis breaks out, then "The Wolf of Wall Street" will indeed be more suitable for the situation."
"And movies that are suitable for the situation are also more likely to win awards at the Academy Awards!"
In the blink of an eye, in October, the domestic Beijing Olympics has long passed, and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has intensified.
Although the United States has introduced various measures, it is still just drinking poison to quench thirst.
Matt Damon continues to be miserable and happy.
Again, the greater the impact of this financial crisis, the greater the probability that "The Wolf of Wall Street" will win the Academy Awards.
Matt Damon is both the actor and the producer.
When "The Wolf of Wall Street" goes to the Oscars, he will not only compete for Best Actor, but also win the biggest award, Best Picture.
At this moment, he really hoped that the impact of the financial crisis would be greater.
As for Wang Shu, he already knew that the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis would evolve into a global financial crisis with huge impact, so he had no hope or hope.
During this period, "The Wolf of Wall Street" will definitely be a movie with huge repercussions.
In order for "The Wolf of Wall Street" to successfully compete for the 2009 Academy Awards, Matt Damon has been focusing on the post-production of the film recently.
By October, registration for the Academy Awards has begun.
Although "The Wolf of Wall Street" has not yet completed post-production, Matt Damon used his connections to successfully sign up.
(End of this chapter)