Chapter 428 The Feast of Wolves 6 - The inevitable flaw of bounded rational game strategy
(The author belongs to the cognitive super-male syndrome, and many of his understandings are wild, but generally he should be correct. If there are any mistakes or omissions , corrections welcome - sincerely)
From the macro perspective of productivity and production relations, the development of human society is driven by cooperation and games between different social subjects, and in this competitive relationship, society Individuals and social organizations strictly abide by the principle of survival of the fittest over a long enough time scale.
At the specific game level, the interests of the subjects participating in the game are different, and the designers of the system have the unshirkable mission of optimizing the game rules.
However, all designs that pursue absolute rationality are biased - absolute rationality never exists stably.
The premise of the rational person hypothesis is that the target person has complete knowledge and understanding, consistent internal and external interest preferences, strong computing power, and insight into the boundary of utility maximization.
However, most organizations and individuals cannot complete these conditions.
Materialist dialectics is a method of approaching truth and objectivity, but truth and objectivity do not exist strictly at rest on the premise of their own movement.
In general, the problem with the rationality assumption is that people’s motivations for making decisions about the effectiveness of behavior include not only material gains, but also do not necessarily satisfy the rationality assumption.
Nevertheless, from the perspective of achieving maximum efficiency and fairness, classic mechanism design should assume that individual rationality always pursues maximizing material interests, so as to guide people to achieve healthy competition through institutional design.
Behavioral economists have done a lot of useful exploration in the construction and improvement of this complex system. Their mainstream view is that after introducing more motivation functions or influencing factors, game system design and game prediction based on bounded rationality can be realized.
For example, the irrationality of Niu Sen and Will in participating in the BEC coin project is behind both greed for profit, support from herd mentality, and the reverse impact of risk aversion - Cheng It always gives them a sense of security, and the pitiful behavior of being passively affected by the endowment effect even though they know that sunk costs should not be involved in decision-making.
For another example, the conflict between Lake's desire for actual power within the LAPD and Garcetti's guidance on 'unity' contains a natural deviation from Lake's own lack of understanding and decision-making errors.
Going a little deeper, the most complicated point of this game lies in the changes in interests between President Cheng and Niu Sen, the intertwining of rational and irrational factors, and the intertwining of deviations caused by the dominance of interests and the influence of personal ideology.
Revolving around the increase or decrease in the dominance of the game by both parties, the understanding of the overall game information, and the changes in influencing factors in the decision-making process, Chengdu constantly adjusts the interests it relies on, thereby dynamically adjusting the overall risk of the decision-making.
Even if there are suspicions of hindsight and drawing trajectory by looking at craters, judging from the development of the game, the game strategy based on bounded rationality is effective - the emergence of Black Satan is an example.
This kind of effectiveness does not necessarily mean that it has gains. The way of heaven lies in the flow of yin and yang. The effectiveness or significance of a strategy is composed of positive and negative aspects - many things that only mention positive effects are chicken soup. and deception.
The assumption of absolute rationality itself has absolute errors and omissions. Correspondingly, there are also absolute errors and omissions in the prediction and design of complex games under the premise of limited rationality.
Because of the existence of bounded rationality, there are many flaws, such as the ambiguity of the reference object, the endowment effect, the bias of probability, the limitations of cognition, the natural uncertainty of decision-making, the changes in game evolution, etc.
If you want to approach the limit of bounded rationality in the game, you must bring in more influencing factors and motivation functions. After bringing in more influencing factors or motivation functions, these newly added variables will be Its own irrational flaws lead to greater risks of game strategy failure.
Okay, it seems that we are back to the logic error of ‘the bigger the fish, the smaller the fish’. However, in actual games, there are countless cases that conform to the evolution of game strategies based on bounded rationality.
But does this mean that predictions of games under bounded rationality are invalid? Does this mean that the research of behavioral economists is useless?
Of course not, time scale and turnover in repeated games are important variables.
Time scale - Social individuals and social organizations strictly abide by the principle of survival of the fittest on a long enough time scale.
Strategy change in repeated games - after introducing more driver functions or influencing factors, game system design and game prediction based on bounded rationality can be realized.
After clarifying the importance of these two variables, the gold content of the 'spiral rise' theory and the 'contradiction transformation' theory became apparent.
In layman's terms, it is based on "I can't eat hot tofu in a hurry", adhering to the game strategy of "fight without defeat", under the guiding ideology of "existence is everything", and using the practical method of "materialist dialectics" 'For the idea of struggle, wait for the turning point of the game to arrive.
Stay patient, observe the information, grasp the contradictions, and wait for the opportunity!
Although the bounded rational game theory under behavioral economics has many shortcomings, its environmental level is still quite low, and it is a relatively cutting-edge practical theory of modern economics.
The fact that Garcetti asked Black Satan for help is in line with the behavior of first surviving and then observing and collecting information, and the purpose of this behavior is to grasp the contradictory changes in the complex game, so as to judge opportunity.
It can even be said that as relatively modern cutting-edge economic ideas, Garcetti and Black Satan both have behavioral patterns that are in line with those who succeed in bounded rational game strategies.
“Now that BEC has risen, have you considered how to end it?”
Black Satan’s question is so thoughtful.
Little brother, you are in trouble. Brother, I am standing with you now.
Come and tell me your thoughts on how the game between the commander-in-chief and the California Gang will end.
"As for BEC itself, there are two main people involved. One is Temir and her new generation behind Gru, and the other is Niusen.
I am more inclined to make peace with Temir , Mr. Barak, what do you think?”
Black Satan nodded, he was very rational, and so was Garcetti.
He hopes to use Garcetti to seek certain benefits for his faction, and when the situation becomes complicated, Garcetti does not want to get involved in trouble at all.
The only extra gain he expected was to gain control within the LAPD through the compromise with Mi'er, that's all.
How could Garcetti not understand what Lake was thinking?
As a faction leader, of course he must also consider the interests of his subordinates.
As a person, you can’t be too Tonks, otherwise you won’t be able to keep your ashes.
You think so, Gru?
“You are the mayor of San Luodu, and the center of the California Elephant Party is also in San Luoduo. You have to consider maintaining a long-term cooperative relationship with them and not be too rigid.”
< br>
What Black Satan said is very interesting. It really depends on how to understand it.
Anyway, Mayor Garcetti is pretty good at pretending to be stupid. He is also from an intelligence agency and has quite a lot of experience in fighting.
“Yes, you are right. Saint-Lo is the second largest city in the United States. I cannot seek one-party control regardless of the overall situation, but I still have to maintain some friendly ties with the California Elephant Party.< br>
The BEC coin investigation case is a good opportunity. Although it is not clear why Temir did not find the commander to interfere in the investigation, she has always had interests in it. ”
Politics and economics have always been. Regardless of family separation, Mr. Cheng and Mi'er have been operating against the wind until today. The political power they have gathered has a power that no one can ignore in California, at least in San Luodu.
The big picture, the friendly contacts, her interests, Garcetti made her position known to Barak.
Garcetti has always been a practical person, otherwise he would not have become the longest-serving mayor in the history of San Loduo.
Seeing him make such a pragmatic decision, Black Satan was not surprised, Barak said with a smile.
"I'm very happy that you thought of me immediately when you were in trouble - even though it didn't help you much, hahaha."
Black Satan stood up and accompanied Garcetti all the way. Send him to the gate.
"This makes me a little ashamed, Mr. Barak. If you need anything in Saint-Lo, please feel free to contact me!" The two hugged each other politely before parting, and then Barak stood at the door and watched Garcetti leave.
Seeing the mayor's car disappear, Black Satan took out a special satellite phone.
“Come see me.”
“In San Loto, Director Hut, don’t my words have any effect now?”
The former top leader of the United States is different from other countries. Although Mr. Barak is gone, the tea is not cold at all.
The abolition of reform is just a matter of reform and has nothing to do with his strength as a faction leader. How could his words not work?
Many people only know that Barak was born in the United States and grew up in Indonesia. His mother was an anthropologist who conducted research in Indonesia.
In fact, it is very likely that Barak’s mother is an agent of the U.S. secret service (special agent, intelligence) stationed in Indonesia - almost a well-known to well-known kind.
During his tenure, the United States' special intelligence system experienced a luxurious budget expansion, and its personnel and power reached the maximum after Hoover.
On the one hand, the support of the special intelligence department is on the one hand, and on the other hand, as a person with politically correct skin color, Barak has a decisive influence in the ethnic group in which politically correct skin color is the main body.
——
The complexity of the modern police system is beyond the understanding of many people. From the perspective of understanding, the actual situation and the understanding of ordinary people are completely different.
As far as the LAPD is concerned, the four major bureaus are considered the 'local powerful factions', and the general bureau directly under the Sheriff belongs to the 'central faction'. In addition to the local powerful factions and the central faction, the LAPD is also subject to multiple supervisions Horizontal management constraints of the department.
For example, in terms of finance, it is subject to the constraints of the Saint-Lô Metropolitan Council; in terms of compliance in police enforcement, it is subject to the conduct review committee entrusted by the city council, etc.
Since supervision is very strict, why does Gru still appear?
The out-of-control regulation and the effective Schrödinger state, the complexity of the US police issue can be generally seen from the political slogans of both candidates for leadership - taking both sides of the 2024 election as an example, both parties clearly have complete differences on the US police issue. Opposite position.
Back to the humorous question. These two candidates with completely opposite political views both say that they are just. So how should the problem of American police be solved?
Fortunately, the United States is big enough. Perhaps, when things get out of hand, the great United States can accommodate two great commanders.
However, none of this has anything to do with Burns.
As Lake's hand-picked stormtrooper, the senior police inspector is now the chief of the LAPD's narcotics division.
Of course Lake and Burns don't have the courage to take action against drug lords. All they can do is attack the street distributors. How to deal with drug lords is the job of the special intelligence department.
Compared to fighting drug lords, the purpose of Burns' existence is to let Lake master some kind of deterrence against the White Road gangsters - but that doesn't mean he knows how to use it.
Sheriff Lake’s thoughtfulness in the BEC case shows that he prefers to solve Gru’s remnants with clever tactics rather than direct confrontation. After all, the complexity of internal conflicts is something that no leader can circumvent. The hurdle.
"Mr. Burns, I'm sorry to bother you so late, but our confidential informant has received an urgent tip.
A truck carrying hundreds of kilograms of ice will arrive in Saint-Loto tonight to distribute the goods. Because it is so sudden, we have no time to prepare any plans.
I wonder if it would be convenient for you to come over and provide on-site guidance? "
The caller was one of Burns' men. Mr. Inspector comforted his wife who was woken up with his hands and preached to the other end of the phone.
"Is the informant's information reliable? ? "
"Of course it is reliable. This informant has given accurate information the first two times, but his information fee is a bit expensive."
Burns was slightly excited, and he quickly gave instructions.
"Expense is not a problem, I will be there soon!"
Being a dog for the leader can ensure the stability of power, and it is easier to get opportunities for promotion in the future.
But when you are a US police officer, you always have to convince your subordinates. If your professional skills are not good enough, you will really be treated like a sabi by those US police officers with only high school education.
No matter how high your position is, if you have no merit, the people below will treat you like a stick.
Therefore, Burns attaches great importance to the informant's intelligence.
Under the command of the police inspector who was calm in the face of danger and had complete strategies, the anti-narcotics department of the LAPD General Administration cooperated with the Highway Patrol Department in a perfect 'tough battle'.
The driver of a large truck transporting goods is a tough guy. When faced with an interception by the highway patrol, he would just point his AK at the police car and swipe at it.
However, under the command of Inspector Burns, the police officers heroically shot the murderer to death on the spot!
Even large trucks carrying goods were overturned by the police.
Without it, the SWT directly under the LAPD is equipped with police armored vehicles, which are big guys weighing several tons.
On a certain section of Highway 10, the TV news helicopter was making huge noise in the sky, and the siren of the police car also heightened the tense atmosphere.
Not content to stand outside the cordon and take pictures of the overturned truck, the reporters tried to get closer to the law enforcement scene, but were stopped by the police.
The reporters in the movie can mindlessly hold up their press cards and take pictures, but in fact they can't do it at all.
The police officers also have reasonable reasons for this - we will release the body camera images after the incident. It is better for you to wait for the news instead of causing confusion for us.
Although the police officers dare not offend the media, the media can only accept this rule obediently.
"Go and open the car, and search other places as well. The cab, bumper, inside of the tires, and the floor must be searched carefully. Why haven't the police dogs come yet?"
Surrounded by us Behind a group of police officers, Inspector Burns put his hands on his hips and issued orders calmly.
"SIR, the people on duty tonight from the anti-drug police dog team are handling a case. We have urgently notified other team members and will be there soon!"
Burns nodded seriously and looked. Watching the police officer in the distance open the door of the truck container.
But the strange thing is that after the police officer opened the door, he seemed to find something special and closed it immediately.
Inspector Burns was a little confused about this.
(End of this chapter)