Chapter 164 Mirage
“No one could have guessed how far-reaching the impact Huawei’s press conference held this spring would have on the global situation. Now all the reports in the media are rampant, no matter how exaggerated its impact is. Later, the real world trend became weaker.”
When the New York Times summarized the changes in the world situation in the past year at the end of 2026, it still remembered the press conference two years ago.
Of course, what Washington regrets even more is that it did not kill Chen Yuanguang at MIT earlier. Chen Yuanguang had too many opportunities during his doctoral studies at Amerikan, and they failed to seize them even once.
At that time, no one knew that a rising academic star could deal a fatal blow to Amerikan in the future.
"The federal strategy is essentially bankrupt
Last Saturday, Huawei announced at its press conference that it would manufacture 1 chip ahead of TSMC. After the news was announced, it caused an unprecedented tsunami on Wall Street and even the global capital market.
Many senior practitioners in the capital market believe that the impact of this tsunami is likely to be more profound than the virus that swept the world in March 2020, and it is likely to profoundly change the present and the future. < br>
People have always believed that Amerikan, as the world's leading technology superpower, has been abusing its power in the high-tech field and taking arbitrary repressive measures to maintain its monopoly in the technology field.
< br>You must know that although ASML is not allowed to sell the most advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, China is still one of ASML's important revenue sources. In the first three quarters of 2023 alone, the entire Chinese market purchased 80 lithography units from AMSL machine.
Amerikan's various actions are venting its uneasiness about the changing pattern of the world. Compared with Neon, China, which has a more complete industrial chain and a broader internal market, is obviously a more difficult competitor to deal with.
The emergence of Wright Chen has accelerated this process. If the room-temperature superconducting technology released last year announced the shakedown of Amerikan’s technological leadership, then the topological semimetal released two days ago It declared the complete bankruptcy of the Chip Alliance.
Just last year, this term’s White House proposed the so-called “Chip 4 Alliance”. These 4 alliances include the world’s four major semiconductor production regions: Americen, Neon, Korea and China.
What is funny is that China, which is considered to be lagging behind in the semiconductor field, took the lead in breaking through and achieved overtake in the semiconductor manufacturing process. Under such a premise, not only is the technological leadership shaken, but more importantly, is the Chip 4 alliance still strong?
The alliance strategy has essentially gone bankrupt. This White House needs to face up to this failure and find a way. Perhaps more importantly, it is to contain Dr. Wright. American needs scientists like Dr. Wright to emerge before we can reverse the situation. The current decline. ”
If you open Americen's magazine these days, you will see overwhelming news about chips. People from all walks of life have come out to interpret the impact of this incident. Technology has never been so important.
The plummeting capital market has had a very direct impact on every federal citizen, because according to federal data, more than 50% of American households hold stocks, a proportion that far exceeds that of China. .
This topic has attracted so much attention in America, let alone in China.
First, Big A surged. On the first working day after Huawei’s press conference, the Shanghai Composite Index soared by 4%. All semiconductor-related stocks were at least 7 points. Noah Fund, which is famous for holding semiconductors It can rise by 10 points.
It is quite rare for a fund to rise ten points in one day.
The fund's previous fund manager was named Cai. Due to his heavy position in semiconductors, the fund's market value fluctuated wildly with the semiconductor market. For a long time in the past, the semiconductor market was not very good. He was also nicknamed Caigou by netizens. It is even rarer to be criticized as a star fund manager.
After Cai Gou resigned last year, he was accused of accepting bribes. This is not uncommon, because there are not a few fund managers who have been accused of bribery.
Netizens on Xueqiu joked: "The vegetable dog still hasn't persisted. If he persisted to this day, the Christians would give him the nickname of the God of Vegetables."
And Lin Qinghua ran to Shenhai to go fishing with Chen Qingzhi. Because the real estate industry was in recession, the Lin family's company was shrinking across the board. During this period, he encountered financial problems and asked Lin A to use her Guangjia Technology shares as a pledge to solve the problem.
Since then, Lin Qinghua has gradually retreated to the second line. If he can't get up or get down, it's better to lie flat.
He occasionally went to Shenhai to find Chen Qingzhi. Chen Qingzhi had no friends in the first place, so he naturally welcomed Lin Qinghua to have more contact with him.
Lin Qinghua also has a good impression of Chen Qingzhi, who gives him the feeling of being a fair-weather friend when he was young, "Old Chen, when will Yuan Guang return to Shenhai?
This time the semiconductor technology has been realized Breakthrough, I want to have a good chat with him. We have all come from that era, and it is clear that only when the country is strong will everyone’s life be easier.
I have always felt that the country is like a ship, and everyone has a better life. They are all passengers on the boat. If the boat capsizes, no one will end well.
Even those who can jump out of the boat and escape will be knocked over by other boats. Da Mao is the best example. ”
After the 2022 war began, the fate of the big-haired tycoons in Europe and the United States left a deep impression on the Chinese tycoons. Abramovich was forced to sell Chelsea and the money from the cryptocurrency exchange was confiscated, which made them feel even more miserable.
For the rich in China, running away is easy. As long as you can make up your mind and throw away half of your wealth, you can still run away.
Just looking at it now, even if they go to the so-called neutral country, they can't be neutral.
For this reason, most wealthy people choose to run in name only but not in reality. In other words, they have foreign nationality, have an extra layer of skin on their bodies, and their industries and themselves remain in China.
Chen Qingzhi focused all his attention on the water in front of him. He said without raising his head: "Now Yuan Guang is a thorn in Amerikan's side. He should just stay in Mianyang.
I have told him, including the Chinese side, that he should not run around and stay in Mianyang is the safest place. "
Lin Qinghua then reacted, "You are right, the hinterland of Mianyang is definitely much safer than Shenhai.
Not to mention that the American embassy in Shu was withdrawn, and their influence there was even weaker. "
In 20 years, due to some indescribable reasons, Amerikan's only consulate in the southwest region was withdrawn. After that, their influence in the southwest region was greatly reduced.
" Yuan Guang has no shortcomings as a person. The only shortcoming is that he is too capable. If he is too capable, he will poke a hole in the sky.
The past few days have been an eye-opener. The global capital markets are all falling, and only Big A has broken out of the unique trend here.
The U.S. stock market is the most dazzling brand and the biggest weakness of the United States. Once the U.S. stock market collapses, it means that their global dominance system is almost over.
Yuan Guang is giving the old beauty a hard job one after another. "Lin Qinghua said with emotion.
Chen Qingzhi was very calm: "Whether it is the U.S. stock market or other capital markets, various media will create an illusion for users, trying to tell the public that the stock market is a voting machine. Why is the U.S. stock market? Keep going up? Because Amerikan has a future.
Why does Big A keep falling? Because the economic environment in China is sluggish. This view is both right and wrong, that is, Big A has never been able to reflect China's economic situation.
What's more important is that in the long run, the capital market is not a voting machine, but a weighing machine. Income is the most important. This is also the most critical point in Buffett's investment philosophy.
In the past, the high-quality companies in the U.S. stock market were greater than the high-quality companies in Big A, which were greater than the garbage companies in the U.S. stock market.
Now with the breakthrough of chip technology, high-quality companies in Big A may be larger than high-quality companies in the US stock market, and Big A will naturally face repricing.
The only thing that makes me a little regretful is that the northbound funds did not sell, and the northbound funds did not flow out in large amounts, but inflowed in large amounts. If they also sold, then they would not be able to enjoy the dividends of China's technological breakthroughs. Northbound funds The pricing power of funds will also be falsified once. ”
After Chen Qingzhi finished speaking, Lin Qinghua was shocked. He didn't expect that this old man who he thought could only eat, drink and have fun had such a deep understanding of the stock market and could even talk about US stocks.
"Brother, I didn't expect you to know so much about the stock market?"
Lin Qinghua often asked Lin Jia for information about Chen Qingzhi, knowing that the guy in front of him had the best time in his life. In addition to fishing, I also play cards, so the insights just mentioned are not something that a gamer can understand.
Although taxi drivers everywhere are good at talking about international politics, it is still very skillful to be able to metaphorize Buffett's investment philosophy so cleverly and apply it appropriately at this moment. .
In Lin Qinghua's view, with this ability, it is more than enough to become a stock commentator on the financial channel.
After all, what commentators need most is to be able to cite classics and the history of the capital market at their fingertips, so that they can easily think of a similar point in time in the past. It doesn’t matter whether you are trying to find a way out of trouble or not. You are just a commentator and you don’t need to do actual operations. .
“I have been playing Big A for many years before, and the tuition I paid for Big A was several million at least. Later I bought an index fund on the US stock market and I realized how easy it is to make money.
< br>Later I carefully studied the U.S. stock market. This kind of passive investment was so stable. Even after such a tragic decline in 20 years, it quickly rose back. I had a suspicion, is the U.S. stock market really so invincible?
Obviously not. In my opinion, the U.S. stock market is an artificial price distortion cycle. They are trapped in a group liquidity illusion.
This is a fascinating phenomenon that penetrates into the financial market. phenomenon, creating a deceptive sense of security for investors and traders
It's like a mirage in the desert, a dazzling oasis that evaporates in an instant when you look closely. ”
Lin Qinghua was shocked. When he had a meal with an economics professor from Zhejiang University, the other party also said a similar point of view.
Lin Qinghua knew that he only needed to do it at this time. What a compliment: "Brother, how do you say this? ”
Chen Qingzhi said: “Let’s talk about the price distortion cycle first.
U.S. stocks are increasingly focused on leading companies, such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, etc. The S&P 500 is an index weighted by large stocks. The more money investors invest in indexation, the stock prices of leading companies will rise faster than other stocks in the market, and they will rise in the S&P 500 index. Taking an ever-increasing share, it creates a cycle that really distorts prices.
About 10 stocks are holding the other 490 stocks together from crashing.
To be honest, this trick should be almost unplayable. The impact of Huaguo Chip’s breakthrough is likely to completely burst this bubble. "
Chen Qingzhi continued: "The illusion of fluidity is even more interesting.
Everyone knows that the Federal Reserve plays a key role in shaping liquidity conditions. When they did quantitative easing, they injected a lot of money into the financial system. This flood of liquidity can reassure investors that the market is sound and stable.
After the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program injected a large amount of liquidity into the market. Investors view this as a safety net, but it masks underlying risks.
Because the difference between the highest price a buyer is willing to pay and the lowest price a seller is willing to accept reveals market liquidity. Narrow spreads indicate ample liquidity, while wide spreads indicate scarcity.
A stock with a small trading volume has a large bid-ask spread. A sudden surge in sell orders can trigger panic and undermine the illusion of liquidity.
Quantitative trading firms thrive on the illusion of liquidity. Their algorithm exploits small price differences, assuming liquidity is always available. However, during market declines, there is a high chance that liquidity will suddenly disappear, causing a flash crash.
This week’s plunge in U.S. stocks and the plunge in U.S. stocks in 20 years have traces, but the flash crash of the Dow Jones Index in May 2010 caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to plummet nearly 1,000 points in a few minutes. . Quantitative trading accelerates chaos.
So in fact this is a mirage created by Amerikan, the Federal Reserve, and their global public opinion system.
If you study it in depth, you will find the truth concealed by many illusions.
The Federal Reserve injected large amounts of money into the market to provide ample liquidity. Interest rates are low and money flows freely. Investors get drunk on cash and think they can always find a buyer or seller.
Yet this illusion rests on shaky foundations. The supply of liquidity is not unlimited. It depends on the confidence, trust and delicate dance of market participants. When panic strikes, liquidity evaporates faster than rain evaporates.
If the 2008 financial crisis revealed that the fragility of this illusion was just a dance that twisted its feet, then today's plunge in US stocks is a loss of confidence among global investors. The dance can be danced again, and confidence can Repair? "
At the end, Chen Qingzhi's expression suddenly became ferocious and then calmed down again: "I have been looking forward to this day for a long time.
What makes me even happier is that the illusion of fluidity was torn open by my son’s own hands. ”
As a person born in the 1970s, I have too many bad memories when I was weak in the past. These memories have been accumulated in my mind. Time can make it forget, but when the memory is triggered, I want to watch it. The desire to see the collapse of the US imperial system has become stronger than ever.
The people born in the 1940s in the White House stared at Jeffrey angrily: "Start war! It's time for the Federation to take action. We need a victory to tell the world that our throne is unbreakable! ”
Jeffrey is very helpless. As the White House Director, he is very clear about the current financial situation. If we continue to hit the U.S. debt, we will really go bankrupt. Will anyone really pay for it if we hit the U.S. debt again?
It’s okay to win, but what if we don’t win? The thought flashed through his mind: “Boss, should we ask the think tanks for another round of opinions? ”
"I say war! Take action, sir." The other party's tone was firmer than ever.
(End of this chapter)