Chapter 167 Self-developed Chip
“How do you evaluate the topological semi-metal and Ark chips at Huawei’s press conference?”
Compared with video, text output will have more information and emotions. There will be less rendering on it.
This has something to do with the tonality of the platform, as well as the form of expression.
“Thank you for the invitation. I read a question on Zhihu about China’s national destiny. A lot of answers in it were talking about how lucky China is and how good its national destiny is.
I actually don’t agree with most of the views. I have always believed that China’s good fortune is not the result of the good fortune of the country, but the result of the joint efforts of all people. Take joining the WTO as an example. Joining the WTO is not a privilege of China. On the contrary, China has to join the WTO in order to A lot of compromises were made.
Joining the WTO is not a charity from the West, it is a deal. The economic system headed by America wants to always have excess returns and has set a price for a deal with China. Old people on the Internet Some self-media outlets have ulterior motives and describe this as charity.
When I talk about joining the WTO, I don’t want to talk about whether it is a charity or a transaction, but I want to say that this seems to be an opportunity for the country. If it were not for our infrastructure, residents’ quality, business environment, etc. We are all prepared. Even if we join the WTO, we will not be able to usher in an economic boom.
Joining the WTO is also the result of China's huge economy being able to put it on the table for transactions after more than ten years of development. It is also the result of our efforts.
This kind of incident is not so much the fate of the country as it is the result of hard work.
As the economy takes off after joining the WTO, we must not ignore the sacrifices made by a large number of people in the process.
Therefore, in my opinion, the only thing that can be called the destiny of the country is the 911 World Trade Twin Towers incident in the millennium. This incident caused America to make a major strategic misjudgment and win ten goals for China. A period of peaceful development in the coming year.
This is an unmitigated destiny for me, and this technological breakthrough of topological semi-metal, in my opinion, is a blessing of national destiny no less than the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center.
Even to some extent, even more so than that time.
I won’t talk about normal temperature superconductivity. This takes time because it is a completely new technology and it takes a long time to mature. It cannot be plug-and-play in the existing economic system and successfully developed. The latter is more symbolic.
There is currently only news on the application side, and no specific products have been seen yet. I guess the research and development progress is limited. After all, this thing is a bit too high-end.
For products that are too high-end, it is difficult to see short-term effects.
As for topological semi-metal, it can be plug-and-play directly into the existing semiconductor system, directly replacing silicon with topological semi-metal, which means that a leap in computing power can be achieved at an extremely low cost.
The biggest advantage is that it no longer needs to be limited to a fixed area, and there is no need to try to make the transistor volume of the chip smaller or the transistor volume larger. The same effect can be achieved by stacking the number of transistors.
This results in a large number of technologies in the original system that can be used directly without much modification, which is completely different from quantum computers that completely subvert the original system.
The benefit it will bring to the future is that China's semiconductor industry chain will usher in a comprehensive upgrade around topological semi-metals. There are not only developed countries in the world, but also a large number of underdeveloped countries and developing countries with vast markets.
What's more, developed countries are not the only ones with Amerikan. There are also a large number of countries that cannot deal with Amerikan and will try their best to do business with us. Even die-hard guys may not be able to rebel.
Under such a premise, China's semiconductor industry will usher in a situation where it has technology, market and capital, and will have a period of explosive growth. On the contrary, I hope that Amerikan will not compromise and will not allow China's topological semi-metal to be exported.
Because of this, the technological upgrading around topological semi-metals will be completed by Chinese companies, and we will take the lead in the next generation semiconductor industry revolution.
Last year, the total output value of the global semiconductor industry was around US$533 billion, of which the output value in the mainland and Wanwan regions was around US$120 billion.
Wanwan relies on TSMC to do more high-end business, while the mainland is more engaged in mid- to low-end production capacity. Everyone knows that the profits of high-end production capacity far exceed that of mid-to-low-end production capacity.
With the development of AI, the global demand for chips will show explosive growth in the future. At present, only China can manufacture 1nm process chips in the world.
Therefore, relying on topological semi-metal, China will slowly encroach on its high-end market share. From a quarter of its output value, I predict that China Semiconductor’s global output value will increase in three years’ time. rises to 50%.
What we will mainly eat is the output value of Wanwan and Gaoli. American may also relocate the semiconductor companies of Wanwan and Gaoli back to American in order to protect its domestic industry.
We had a huge semiconductor industry before, but these industries were more like a kind of obesity. Today it is still obesity, but topological semi-metal will make it stronger quickly like a powerful pill.
I am looking forward to seeing what will happen if we lose the semiconductor industry and the island-protecting sacred mountain TSMC. I just hope that the relevant parties will not give any favors! ”
There are many similar highly praised answers on Zhihu, for example:
“They are all fake. Chip breakthrough, Ark 100, and topological semi-metal are all fake. This is Huawei cooperates with relevant parties in strategic deception.
The Ark 100 is the Kirin chip with a different logo, so I hope you won’t compete with me for the Huawei Extraordinary Master Edition, which will be released in the second half of this year.
I was joking just now, I think the production capacity will be very limited, so the Extraordinary Master in the second half of the year will most likely be harder to grab than when the mate60 is released. Considering the 1nm chip, I guess it will be sold by scalpers. Go to heaven.
Alas, I don’t want to think about it anymore. I feel annoyed just thinking about it. If I didn’t buy it as soon as possible, I would definitely not be able to sleep.
Okay, back to the topic, I want to talk about how significant this matter is, how important it is to us, why the capital market reacted so violently, and why Big A, nicknamed the fraud market, can compete with The U.S. stock market went against it. The U.S. stock market plummeted, while the U.S. stock market rose sharply against the trend. The son even disowned his father.
Because I have been working at a securities firm and doing macro analysis, I can tell you clearly that for a long time in the past, we have mainly pursued four strategic goals:
< br>1. Withstand the economic pressure brought about by the current supply chain shift
2. Prevent the economic pressure caused by future confrontation
3. Increase the dependence of major economies on China
4. Maintain the development of artificial intelligence
Yes, it is very pragmatic and a very basic goal. Made in China 2025 did not mention it much. , a large number of policies are centered around the fact that we must survive, we must survive, and we cannot be kicked out of the current global economic cycle.
Before the God of Light appeared, no one could have imagined that we could exceed our strategic goals in such a short period of time.
The series of technological breakthroughs led by Guangshen, such as human hibernation, perovskite, and room temperature superconductivity, fully prove China’s independent innovation capabilities in the field of cutting-edge science and technology. To some extent, these technologies have The world is indispensable, that's why France came to China urgently, even if it offended Amerikan, it still had to give the European Space Agency's cargo transportation order to Guangjia Aerospace.
This year's large-scale global shipment of perovskite cells has brought about a significant increase in the profits of the photovoltaic industry. It can be said that the first point has been initially achieved, and the third point has been exceeded.
With the chip industry revolution brought about by topological semi-metal, we will take the lead in this industrial revolution. Combined with AI, this will be an opportunity no less than the Internet wave after the 1990s. Good expectations for the future formed from the top to the private sector can basically solve the second point.
Finally, the fourth point is that I hoped not to be pulled too far. Nvidia does not sell us the most advanced chips. We can use some less advanced chips. Huawei can produce them by itself. Ascend will be satisfied. , as long as we can maintain a situation of not falling behind.
Now with the blessing of 1nm process technology, the lagging behind in AI can soon be caught up. After all, China does not lack data and algorithms, it only lacks computing power. Therefore, all the strategic goals previously pursued have been achieved, and even exceeded.
Like leading the world in chip manufacturing, this is something that I couldn’t even imagine before.”
As for other manufacturers who watched this conference, they had mixed feelings. Don’t even think about the high-end market this year. It is 100% monopolized by Huawei.
Huawei has strong marketing capabilities and has such strong technical support.
Fortunately, the price of Extraordinary Master is good. It is not the market they are pursuing, so the impact is not that big for the time being.
The question everyone faces is whether to make their own chips.
Now that China can produce 1nm chips, should we do it ourselves? Self-developed chips have countless benefits. They do not have to pay Qualcomm tax and can maximize the advantages of software and hardware, which is a big marketing highlight.
Looking at the success of Kirin, leading manufacturers have launched projects one after another. Xiaomi has Pengpai, VIVO is a self-developed imaging chip, and OPPO has Zheku.
OPPO is in the most pain now, because they canceled the company before Zheku tape-out in May last year, the team was disbanded, and only the core architecture team was retained.
Originally, if Zheku had not been disbanded, he could have started working directly now. Unfortunately, now that Zheku is gone, it would take at least half a year to build a new team and push the chip to the tape-out stage. .
“Our current question is whether we should develop self-developed chips?” OPPO executives held an emergency online meeting after the press conference, and all executives attended the meeting.
Everyone is deeply shocked. Huawei has gone to 1nm. Will they still play?
The lack of production capacity this year will not affect their market, but what about next year? What about the year after next?
“I just consulted Mi Yujie, and he said that they expect to complete 1nm chip tape-out in 2028, which means that it will take until 2029 to advance the process to 1nm.
< br>When we attended the International Electronic Components Conference last year, TSMC said that it would not be possible until 2030 to advance the process to 1nm. "
Mi Yujie is a senior executive in charge of R&D at TSMC. Because of this, OPPO said. Zheku once wanted to take the chip to TSMC for tape-out, so he was very familiar with TSMC's executives.
"This year Huawei's 1nm chip is limited by production capacity and new technology. It will only appear on the highest-end Extraordinary Master. What about next year? What about the year after that?
When both the mate series and p series are equipped with 1nm chips, we How can we sell high-end models?
What’s even more frightening is that their mid-range NOVA series all use self-developed chips and use 3nm process to achieve differentiation. What should we do?
When that day comes, we will lose most of the market.”
New technology will bring the biggest shock to mobile phone manufacturers, almost a dimensionality reduction blow.
The executive who said this simply couldn't imagine the nova series of 3nm process chips, and OPPO's most high-end find only uses this process.
“Before the meeting, Qualcomm came to us and said that they would do everything possible to promote cooperation with China. Even if all high-end production capacity is handed over to SMIC, they will still cooperate with China. " Another executive said.
This is Qualcomm’s rhetoric to appease these partners.
Everyone is developing their own chips, so do we still need to collect Qualcomm tax?
Although you can still collect taxes by relying on communication patents, the taxes are much lower than those of the Snapdragon series.
"Haha, this requires Washington to negotiate with Yanjing, and it is not something Qualcomm can decide.
And even if Qualcomm can come in, their priority is very low. For us, we can wait this year, next year You can wait, but you can’t wait for the next year.
Even if it just loses the high-end market, it will be fatal for OPPO.”
“Yes, we must develop our own chips. "What if I'm banned from Amerikan?"
If we develop our own chips instead of Qualcomm, and then get put on Americen's blacklist, will we lose overseas markets like Huawei? "
"No, we will not lose the overseas market, we will only lose the Amerikan market.
As long as there are no problems with new technology production capacity and yield, then we no longer need Qualcomm or TSMC.
It doesn’t matter even if TSMC doesn’t OEM for us and Qualcomm doesn’t sell chips to us.
What is more important is that what is lost is the Amerikan market, and what is gained is other markets around the world.
With the blessing of new technologies, Samsung has no power to compete with us in overseas markets. If we have the blessing of 1nm, even if it is Apple, we can take away its market share. "
"Yes, we only have the option of self-research now, and we have to do it quickly.
Because other manufacturers will make such a decision, SMIC’s production capacity is limited, and we need to grab the production capacity of topological semi-metal chips. The faster, the more advantageous it will be. ”
Almost all OPPO executives want to understand one thing, that is, the only way is self-research.
Losing the American market is not a big deal, but losing the Chinese market is a big deal. Move the bones.
It would be even more fatal if Huawei could enter foreign markets.
Not to mention that Honor, as the son of a deep state-owned enterprise, will definitely choose to develop it on his own. Honor and Huawei are enough to swallow up the entire market.
Self-research still has some problems. It was disbanded last year and the team was re-established this year. It was a bit embarrassing in public opinion. It will cost more to get people back.
But these are not problems that can be solved.
"Let's do it this way, Liu Jun. I need to trouble you to organize the bureau again."
(End of this chapter)