Chapter 174 Yuan Guang, please tell me what to do
“First of all, I want to talk about why this is a technological revolution.
America has always been accustomed to exaggerating artificial intelligence in the media Intelligence is the technological singularity of the future. After this technological singularity is realized, there will be an irreparable gap between countries that have mastered artificial intelligence technology and those that have not.
At the same time, artificial intelligence will replace the labor force. It will also help developed countries with expensive labor to realize the return of manufacturing, which will in turn hit our country's manufacturing industry.
For this reason, while Amerikan has high hopes for artificial intelligence, it is also trying every means to crack down. Our artificial intelligence technology development is pursued in all aspects, and the chip is the core of their pursuit
This is the core logic of the strategy that Amerikan has built over the past few years. They need to rely on AI to maintain or even expand their technological advantages. They need to rely on AI to realize the return of manufacturing, and they need to get rid of their dependence on China's manufacturing industry. , to free the world from dependence on China's manufacturing industry.
And this is what we are afraid of, because to be honest, our natural resource endowments are not excellent. If we are forced to lose the global market, we will be in a very difficult situation.
So is their strategy feasible? Is the current stage of technological revolution, and is technological revolution as defined by Amerikan?
What I am going to say below are all based on my perspective and some of my own thoughts. I hope it can give you some reference. ”
Chen Yuanguang hesitated for a long time when choosing the topic, because the future is a parallel time and space, which is not completely consistent with modern time and space. This also prevents you from drawing warnings from key historical nodes. Of course, even if they are exactly the same, Chen Yuanguang still I won’t talk about this.
It is appropriate to limit the lecture content to the history of technological development.
With the transition from the steam age to the electric age, some science fiction writers have written that if humans had not discovered electricity, complex and cumbersome steam engines would have been developed, creating a steampunk era, but this would not be possible in the real world. It is impossible to happen.
Because of the observability of electricity, people will discover the advantages of electricity sooner or later. Entering the electrical age, the difference is only sooner or later.
The time required for technological development will vary, and choosing the right path will speed up the process. There will be differences in details, but the basic evolution process is the same.
“I agree with the idea that we are in the early stages of this technological revolution.
AI is not the only one that can accelerate the process of scientific research. Internet technology, modern transportation systems, communication systems, etc., have accelerated the exchanges between scientists, the sharing of knowledge, and reduced the cost of trial and error.
These have accelerated the process of scientific research, just because the problems of modern scientific research are becoming more and more difficult, and the problems are becoming more and more subdivided. Important problems that are easy for the public to understand have been solved by predecessors, and all kinds of problems attract people's attention. The existence of such things makes it difficult for scientists to break through the circle by relying on scientific research achievements.
Since the discovery of the Internet, people have made a lot of achievements in many fields. Our lives have been changed as never before, and the speed of this change is even accelerating.
Now we are in the early stages of this round of technological revolution. There is no problem with this, but I think the core of this round of technological revolution is not just artificial intelligence.
If the core of the first round of technological revolution is the steam engine, the second round is electric power, and the third round is computer technology, then the fourth round will obviously be more diversified.
It can also be seen from the technological development process that the core of the steam engine revolves around steam, which is nothing more than different manifestations of steam in different application scenarios. When steam is applied on a train, it is a steam train, when it is applied on a ship, it is a steam ship. When it is used on a textile, it is a steam ship. It is a steam loom.
As for electricity, its model is broader. In addition to electricity itself, there are also batteries, petrochemical industry, etc. It has more technological breakthroughs.
In the third round, there are more, chips, networks, software, etc., but in the fourth round, it is impossible to only have artificial intelligence technology.
America exaggerates the importance of artificial intelligence technology. In a sense, this is a strategic deception plan they have invariably constructed according to their own needs in the new era from Washington to Wall Street.
They deceived themselves first, but some entrepreneurs will inadvertently reveal some truth during interviews.
Breakthroughs in energy and basic materials are the cornerstones of AI breakthroughs. Breakthroughs in optical chip technology are not enough. Even if the computing power of Nvidia chips is increased by ten times, if the network connection between chips does not use lower-latency materials to interconnect, it will still not be able to achieve the advertised effect.
This process will be very long and requires a lot of supporting technologies to achieve breakthroughs. I think this is actually not the era of artificial intelligence, but the space age. People truly go out of the earth and utilize resources in space on a large scale.
Artificial Intelligence is just one important chapter. "
After Chen Yuanguang said these words, the big guys nodded frequently. Having top scientists make a conclusion will undoubtedly reassure them.
Everyone knows that Hua Guo and Amerikan are in There is a technical gap, and it is still a big gap
Everyone now understands better why Chen Yuanguang has been doing projects like space mining. This is the combination of his knowledge and action.
“Normal temperature superconductivity, robots, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, supercomputers, nuclear fusion, clean energy, etc., these will be key points. Americen may lead in some fields, but it is impossible Achieve leadership in all fields
Similarly, for us, we are currently in a leading position in room temperature superconductivity and clean energy, and have achieved a breakthrough in semiconductors to a certain extent. Topological semimetals are very important. Important technology, we can rely on this technology to force some foreign countries to come to us for cooperation.
Nikon, the previous leader in the field of lithography machines, is a neon company. They have been in private contact with us about this company. Neon companies are very eager to cooperate.
Lithography machines are still far away from China’s ability to produce 28nm in China.
And if we cooperate with Neon's Nikon, we can quickly break through the topological semi-metal process to 5nm. If the 5nm topological semi-metal is equivalent to silicon, it is equivalent to the process directly breaking through 1nm. We can use smaller The unit pm is used to describe it. It’s hard to say exactly how many pm is equivalent to that, because the Western countries that are doing silicon don’t dare to think about what kind of intensity the chip computing power will be after reaching pm.
These are our advantages because it is difficult for us to achieve breakthroughs in all areas.
As mentioned earlier, there are more and more subdivisions of modern science, and the work of scientists is becoming more and more specific.
There are so many subdivided fields and resources are limited. Today, if you want to do self-research and breakthroughs in all fields, it is too difficult, almost impossible.
America can’t do it, and we can’t do it either.
We may be able to do it in the future, but we can't do it now.
Essentially speaking, this is also determined by productivity. Productivity determines how many percent of our people can be trained into scientific researchers at most. This number is very limited, which in turn determines how much we invest in research and development. resources are limited. The scientific researchers here can be researchers from universities, research institutes, academic organizations, or enterprises. In many cases, the scientific researchers of enterprises will be more effective.
So, if we want to achieve advantages in this round of technological revolution, we need to invest resources in the research and development of key technologies.
Rely on key technology research and development breakthroughs to control the development of the entire industry chain. ”
Chen Yuanguang felt it was necessary to give some examples to illustrate this idea.
“Let’s talk about lithography machines. I feel that everyone should be most familiar with lithography machines.”
Everyone here is smiling. It is obvious that lithography machines have been used for a long time in the past. They all go to neican frequently.
For example, the Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, which was urgently established that year, was also a rumored big fund. Big bosses were very impressed. It raised more than 100 billion in the first phase and nearly 3000 yuan in the second phase. billion, the two phases combined exceeded 400 billion, and the social capital indirectly mobilized exceeded one trillion.
What’s more important is that most of the fund’s early executives have joined.
A certain big shot mentioned this as a typical case.
“If we go back to the millennium and we have a chance to do it all over again, it is almost unrealistic for the entire industry chain to develop lithography machines.
Like Zeiss and Cymer The former makes lenses and the latter makes light sources. It is impossible to buy them.
But we can choose to control the most critical technology, such as the light source.
Control the entire supply chain. If we can't do it, then focus our resources on the light source. This will ensure that other countries cannot build lithography machines without us.
And Americen can make companies in other countries compromise, ask them to cooperate, listen to them, and relocate the companies to Americen itself.
But they can't ask us like this.
In a large number of fields, resources should be concentrated to research key technologies and then be applied on a large scale to achieve overtaking in the technical field.
Now perovskite has achieved results, because perovskite is a very hot field. After we took the lead in achieving large-scale industrialization, foreign photovoltaic companies did not give up research on perovskite cells.
They even achieved some breakthroughs in industrial mass production, but it was useless because their technology was not as good as ours, both in terms of yield rate and photoelectric conversion efficiency.
To put it simply, due to the technological gap, investing 100 yuan in foreign self-developed perovskite will only generate 1 yuan in profit, while using Chinese technology, investing 100 yuan in it can generate 6 yuan in profit.
This gap is still increasing with the distribution of mass production in China, which forces foreign companies to give up.
With our mastery of perovskite technology, we have taken the initiative in the photovoltaic industry. American had to give the green light to China’s perovskite technology and let us urgently import it.
This is the benefit of mastering key technologies. We can be deeply embedded in the global industry after the future technological revolution. Even because our technology is a key technology, we can get a bigger piece of the pie.
My lecture ends here. Thank you for taking the time. The following is a question and answer session. You are welcome to ask questions. ”
After Chen Yuanguang finished speaking, there was warm applause, and the big guys were very proud of him.
"Yuan Guang, you said it very well. We are all old. Although many of us are from science and engineering backgrounds, we certainly cannot compare with you in terms of understanding of cutting-edge technology.
So I still have some questions to ask you.
That is the key technological breakthrough you just mentioned. According to my understanding, the more critical the technology, the more difficult it is to develop. "
"Generally speaking, that's the case." Chen Yuanguang nodded.
"According to my understanding, the current scientific research environment is actually based on thesis theory. Only those who have papers can be evaluated for professors and various titles. If scholars do similar cutting-edge research on key technologies, they will naturally have less access to material conditions. Weaker than other colleagues who do simpler problems
He may have no results in his life, but his ability is stronger than other scholars, and other scholars who do easy topics have better material conditions than these scholars. More abundant.
In other words, our current scientific research evaluation system is not suitable for solving key issues.
There will also be problems if we get rid of the thesis-based evaluation system. , then how to judge who is more capable? Can we only rely on famous experts in the same field to make a conclusion about who is stronger and who is weaker?
Then the former is the imperial examination system, and the latter is the examination system? Xiaolian, the former is certainly problematic, and the latter is even more inappropriate. It is enough to be criticized by young scholars.
What should we do to achieve the purpose you describe and avoid the dilemma of subjectivity in the evaluation system? ”
Chen Yuanguang felt a little confused by the question. He didn’t even personally deal with corporate management. This kind of problem involving the entire management system was a bit too difficult for him.
Now it’s really difficult. to “Ah, me? ”.
(End of this chapter)