Chapter 1151 Conspiracy vs. Conspiracy
In fact, after listening to the news just now, Chang Haonan's mood can almost be expressed in one sentence.
Thanks to the American veteran for the assist! ! !
Agriculture, even if it develops into the 21st century, cannot completely get rid of its dependence on nature.
Therefore, it is normal for the international grain market to experience price fluctuations due to the impact of climate and disasters.
However, this "natural disaster" only accurately covered the main soybean and corn producing areas, and did not even affect wheat. It was really too obedient.
Soybeans and corn happen to be the two crops that China imports the most and is most dependent on foreign countries.
It is not difficult to guess that this should be the starting move of a combo.
The purpose is to use a sophisticated futures trading to fully grasp the non-staple agricultural product market that China promised to open when it joined the WTO.
Although it is not possible to grasp the lifeline of China, it is definitely a seven-inch hit.
Quite a vicious strategy.
But it must be admitted that it is very effective.
It is a steady and steady conspiracy.
Due to the triple debuff of insufficient production + insufficient reserves + open market, even if the Americans reveal every step in advance, it will be difficult for China to resist.
But from another perspective, the other party's actions will also completely expose the fundamental problem of China's lack of arable land.
This will undoubtedly prompt the swinging balance in the minds of decision-makers to tilt violently in the direction of Chang Haonan.
When he thought of this, the curvature of the corners of Chang Haonan's mouth could not be suppressed at all...
Ding Zhongli, who was next to him, was also keenly aware of the change in Chang Haonan's expression.
“Academician Chang?”
He tentatively called out.
"Oh, it's nothing."
Chang Haonan quickly suppressed his smile, but the uncontrollable joy could still be heard in his tone:
"Let's continue... Where did we just talk about? ”
Actually, Ding Zhongli had already made some guesses at that moment.
Of course, he has not read the script in advance and is not a financial practitioner, so he cannot guess the subsequent actions of the Americans in the futures market.
But judging from the trend, it is a certainty that China will transform into a net food importer in 2004.
The price increase of international agricultural product futures stuck at the current node is obviously not good for China.
In this case, Chang Haonan’s first reaction after hearing the news was to be happy...
Combined with the experimental field in western Mongolia Province...
< br>It undoubtedly shows that the other party has once again made the right bet on the research direction.
Thinking of this, he smacked his lips with emotion, and said in his heart:
"No wonder I'm making rapid progress..."
However, seeing that Chang Haonan didn't seem to want to dwell too much on this matter , he also changed the topic and used this excuse to talk about his old profession:
“I just talked about climate change... Actually, Mr. Chang, the extreme climate mentioned in the news just now has a high probability. It doesn’t exist at all.”
Although Chang Haonan thinks so too, he still wants to hear real expert opinions.
Then he asked with some curiosity:
"How do you say it?"
However, the other party did not give any meteorological or geological explanation, but directly started the conversation. Transfer:
“The Americans are probably trying to use this incident to put pressure on us and force our country to make concessions in the next phase of climate agreement negotiations.”
I have to say, Because his own interests were related to farmland, Chang Haonan did not consider the problem from other perspectives.
Now that Ding Zhongli suddenly said this, I think it makes sense -
Even if it is not the main purpose, it can be incidental.
“But hasn’t the Kyoto Protocol been signed a long time ago?”
Chang Haonan has a rough idea of the disputes between countries on emission issues, but it is obviously impossible to communicate with professionals like Ding Zhongli compared to.
“The Kyoto Protocol is essentially closer to a supplement to the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Most of its provisions are not mandatory and the content is relatively rough.”
The latter explained:
“In particular, when the treaty was signed in 1997, because we were classified as developing countries, we were not required to make any commitment to reduce emissions...”
"However, my country's rapid development in recent years has made some developed countries feel threatened. Therefore, on the one hand, they are increasing their efforts to exaggerate the serious consequences of climate change. On the other hand, they are also promoting internationally that we have entered the so-called 'precision'. Developed countries' ranks should shoulder the responsibility of reducing emissions together with them..." Chang Haonan was mentally prepared for a long time, but when he heard this, he still couldn't help blurting out:
"That's nonsense!"
China's development speed in this timeline is indeed faster than that of the previous generation, but in 2003, the per capita GDP was only 16,000 yuan, equivalent to a level of just over 2,000 US dollars.
For comparison, even next door South Korea, which is generally considered to be the lower limit of developed countries, has a per capita GDP of nearly 15,000 US dollars.
To classify China at this point in time as "quasi-developed" is to tell lies with open eyes and no shame at all.
Of course, I am excited.
Chang Haonan is not going to lose his mind because of this little thing.
After calming down a little, he turned to ask:
“But the Kyoto Protocol is an old document that was signed seven years ago, and no matter how many revisions are made, the content cannot change... "
Seeing Chang Haonan's reaction, Ding Zhongli secretly breathed a sigh of relief, and then nodded:
"Actually, using the contents of the Kyoto Protocol as an excuse should just divert our attention. It’s just a means of force.”
“I personally speculate that their real purpose is to exert pressure in the fourth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to be launched at the end of this year, thereby promoting the next climate agreement. Limit our country...or even limit the greenhouse gas emissions of all developing countries in one step..."
After saying this, perhaps because he was worried that Chang Haonan would not realize the seriousness of the matter, he just paused for a moment and continued:
"To tell you the truth, my old profession is in geological research. I am very aware of the various catastrophic extreme climates that the earth has experienced in the past hundreds of millions of years... Therefore, I am not opposed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but in the foreseeable future, modern human civilization can only be based on fossil energy. Basically, to put it more bluntly, emission rights are development rights, so the prerequisite for emission reduction is to ensure fairness.”
“We are a country with a population of 1.2 billion, even if the total emissions obtained are the same as those of the United States. , which is equivalent to only a quarter of their per capita emission rights, not counting the stocks that developed countries have unscrupulously emitted in the past 150 years..."
Ding Zhongli turned around and looked directly at Looking at Chang Haonan, who is half a head taller than him:
"Academician Chang... If their conspiracy succeeds, it will be equivalent to locking the upper limit of our development..."
"So, what Director Ding means is that you want me to express my support for you on this matter?"
Chang Haonan asked directly.
Ding Zhongli was stunned for a moment when his purpose was revealed, but then he regained his composure:
“That’s right.”
“You and I are both technical. Personnel alone cannot play a role in international political situations like the IPCC, so the decision-makers must be made aware of the seriousness of the situation in order to show the tough attitude we should have at critical moments, but... only Our Institute of Geology and Geophysics still lacks influence, but if you, Academician Chang, can join us, you may be able to change the views of our superiors.”
It should be said that there is nothing wrong with Ding Zhongli's entire idea.
This is why he insisted on adding the content that "global warming trends are beneficial to our country to a certain extent" in the assessment report.
Because this is the confidence to flip the table during the negotiation process.
As long as you are not afraid of overturning the table, even if you cannot achieve true fairness in emission rights, you can at least achieve relatively favorable conditions.
However, after Chang Haonan lowered his head and thought deeply, he did not immediately give a positive answer, but asked:
"Why can't we be more direct?"
"Huh?"
Ding Zhongli obviously did not expect that the other party would give such a reply.
“What I mean is, of course we must dare to lift the table, but we cannot use lifting the table as the only means.”
Chang Haonan continued:
"It is like nuclear weapons. It is indeed the strongest trump card. However, it is impossible to directly face nuclear threats in any situation. At most, it can only guarantee that the country will not be subjugated and the species will be exterminated... We also need to build conventional military forces such as imaginary hostility and so on. Only with strength can you ensure that you don't suffer in details and trivial matters."
Although Ding Zhongli is not from a military background, this explanation is easy to understand and not difficult to understand:
"You mean, in. Take the initiative in the IPCC's fourth assessment?"
Chang Haonan nodded:
"Frankly speaking, I don't believe that developed countries...especially the United States, will really do it. Reduce carbon emissions as promised ”
"As you just said, the IPCC's assessment work is absolutely dominated by developed countries... Doesn't that mean that they are both athletes and referees, and whoever ranks the most will rank as much as they want?"< br>
It can be said that he has seen too many similar things.
"Then what you said is indeed correct..."
Hearing this, Ding Zhongli sighed helplessly:
"Although we also have room to argue with our arguments, But at best, they can only use domestic ground monitoring data to refute it. As for the situation abroad... they can say whatever they want.”
But Chang Haonan became excited instead:
“So, if we can find evidence to expose this during the fourth evaluation process, wouldn’t it be equivalent to providing our superiors with a conventional weapon other than turning the table? ?”
(End of this chapter)