Chapter 324: Pictures of a Good Harvest and Trouble on the Other Side
The tragic death of Wally Paulson made Duncan Malone heartbroken.
Although the main reason is that Paulson was too crazy. Not only did he not do hedging honestly, but he also used crazy leverage on long positions, and was eventually liquidated!
This time, AIG not only suffered heavy losses in futures trading, but also suffered a huge loss once the price of the large amount of corn he held fell due to the price drop!
After being depressed for several days, Duncan Malone cheered up with the comfort of Barnes, who also suffered heavy losses.
Review carefully.
I immediately noticed something fishy.
“Duggar Cone’s reaction was wrong!” Duncan Malone was sure, “It was wrong the day soybean futures plummeted.”
Barnes also said: “Callum It’s not normal. Recently, he has stopped asking about the import of Alfalfa No. 1, which was what he was most interested in before.”
The two quickly reached an agreement, “There is something wrong with the whole Monsanto!”
< br>
In the past half month, the futures market has been undergoing a death roll, but Monsanto seems to have suddenly disappeared.
Reminiscent of Callum’s invitation to the dance, Barnes looked fierce.
“Damn it, isn’t it really Monsanto’s fault?”
“I don’t know.” Duncan Malone shook his head and muttered: “Maybe it’s time to say hello to Monsanto.”< br>
AIG launched its relationship and fully investigated Monsanto’s movements.
…
On the road at the junction of Missouri and Illinois, a motorcade passed by.
Watching the Asian carp jumping several meters high in the river, Barnes and Duncan Malone felt a sense of disgust.
The Mississippi River has been taken over by this creature and has become the world of Asian carp.
Hate every American.
You can't eat it, you can't catch it all, and you put some chemicals in it. The native fish died, but it was still alive and well. The river ecology was seriously affected!
There was news a few days ago that a strong man participating in an archery hunt for Asian carp was slapped into the river by the tail of a fish weighing a hundred pounds.
The convoy finally stopped at a soybean farm.
According to the investigation, there are difficult weeds on this farm. Glyphosate cannot kill the weeds. If the dosage is increased, the soybean leaves will curl.
Due to weeds, this farm not only faces a significant reduction in production, but also spends a lot of money screening soybeans.
The farmer claimed that he was sowing Monsanto’s Roundup 2 seeds with glyphosate.
After the investigation, Monsanto tried to negotiate with the farmers, but failed to reach an agreement. Instead, it claimed that the farms may have purchased counterfeit drugs or used them improperly.
This is very suspicious.
After a while, the two met the farmer David, who told his tragic experience in tears.
“A month ago, there were a lot of weeds like this in the fields, and recently they are even more uncontrollable. There is still half a month to harvest. It would be great to have a harvest of 330 kilograms. , it is expected to reduce production by at least 15% or even 20%!”
"This kind of weed reproduces very quickly and is extremely difficult to clean. It also contains toxins. If animals eat it, it will cause lower blood pressure and nervous system abnormalities. It is extremely troublesome to sort and separate during harvesting."
15% reduction in yield? Even 20%!
Duncan Malone only noticed this number, and his heart froze!
If it spreads, or has already spread, it will definitely be a major blow to the actual soybean production this year.
What about the cornfield?
Several people found the weed in the fields.
Barnes from the pasture industry thought it looked familiar, "This seems to be Tribulus? But it looks a little weird."
"Is it difficult to deal with?"
"It's very difficult." Barnes said doubtfully: "But it stands to reason that glyphosate can at least kill the above-ground part of the plant."
With confusion, the two went to the corn farm again .
The corn and soybean producing areas to the north have basically not been harvested yet, and the group easily discovered that there are many such weeds in the corn fields.
The premonition in their hearts became stronger and stronger: Monsanto must have known about it for a long time!
They must know!
Why not announce it to the public?
No, in fact, the outside world has already had news, but it has not been taken seriously by the outside world, or it may have been deliberately downplayed.
The two recalled what they had discovered over the past few days.
They set out from New Orleans.
From south to north, the South is plagued by fire ants, which is well known across the United States.
This is also within the agency's forecast. This year's federal corn production will be reduced. This is one of the main reasons. The reaction in the market is the early rise in grain prices!
But the invasion and spread of fire ants has obviously accelerated!
Some corn, soybean, and cotton fields have been invaded horribly, and the production reduction must have exceeded agency predictions.
Now there are tough weeds appearing in the north.
Red fire ants moved from south to north, and weeds moved from north to south. The two soon realized the seriousness of the matter.
This is definitely not something that the Monsanto family can hide, who else? Dow Chemical? DuPont Pioneer?
The two of them don’t want to investigate anymore.
The important thing now is to find an authoritative organization to stand on!
At present, this information is enough to recover their losses in the futures market, and even make a profit.
…
When farmers encounter plant diseases, insect pests and weeds that cannot be solved, their first reaction is to contact an agrochemical service company.
The agrochemical service company will once again find a factory responsible for production and research and development.
Dow AgroSciences, headquartered in Ribo, Indiana, is one of them. Indiana and Illinois are close to each other and are also major agricultural production areas.
Dow AgroSciences is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Dow Chemical, the largest chemical company in the United States.
Dow AgroSciences is also one of the five leading pesticide multinational companies in the world. It has strong capabilities in herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, urban health chemicals, and even biotechnology.
Recently, a series of difficult problems have arisen for them.
The first is the red fire ant in the south. Existing pesticides are gradually losing their effectiveness and they are frantically attacking cities and territories.
Subsequently, difficult weeds appeared in Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, Iowa and other states.
For Leo Osei, chief technologist at Dow AgroSciences, things are serious, but also just tricky.
And the more problems there are, the more serious they become, which is good for them to some extent.
In the laboratory.
A researcher in a white coat walked over with the latest information.
"Professor Leo, we have the results. This is a new type of weed, similar to Tribulus terrestris, but some of its characteristics are completely enhanced, making it extremely dangerous."
The assistant's expression was full of emotion. of fear.
Leo took the document and looked at it, raising his eyebrows, "The concentration of alkaloids is so high?"
The assistant motioned to continue reading and said: "There are also some substances in this weed A variety of herbicide-resistant genes are encoded to block the interference of herbicides on their growth. "Multiple types?" Leo asked, and he looked quickly.
"At least 5 or more. In fact, it is very likely that none of the herbicides currently on the market will be effective against it, but the most resistant one is glyphosate. The EPSP synthase gene in glyphosate is expressed in plant ingredients. "
"How is this possible?"
However, no matter how much he didn't believe it, the cold genetic code in the experiment was recorded there.
The genes of several of the best-selling herbicides in North America are present in this weed... It's like a blend?
The assistant continued: "The growth cycle of this weed is very short. A large number of seeds can be born in more than a month, and it spreads very quickly."
"Following this trend, by next year, large areas of farmland in the Midwest will be filled with this weed."
The matter is serious, of course, not just for farmers and the federal Department of Agriculture.
It is a fatal blow to some companies.
The world’s concerns about genetically modified genes seem to have come true. In just a few years, weeds have developed such terrible resistance and can also cause environmental problems.
There are also fire ants, whose resistance evolution speed is also very reminiscent of others.
In addition to biological invasion, is this also caused by genetic modification?
After all, the frequency of chemical pesticide use in federal agricultural areas is extremely high, especially Monsanto’s Roundup glyphosate, which covers the entire United States.
It is hard not to worry. As genetic modification continues to develop, will similar animals and plants appear in the future?
If the research report in hand is released, although Dow AgroSciences will not be able to survive alone, Monsanto will undoubtedly be the most injured.
At the same time, things are two-sided. When problems and troubles arise, opportunities also arise.
…
Missouri, St. Louis, Monsanto.
President and Chief Operating Officer Brett Bigeman, held a meeting in the conference room of the headquarters.
As the world leader in GMO application technology, Monsanto is always at the forefront.
When people mention agricultural genetically modified technology, the first thing that comes to mind is Monsanto;
When people mention the dangers of genetically modified agricultural products, the first thing that comes to mind is Monsanto;
When people curse genetically modified technology, the first target is Monsanto.
But this has never stopped Monsanto’s development.
The application of biotechnology in crop breeding is one of Monsanto's masterpieces.
The disease resistance and yield of agricultural products using Monsanto's genetically modified technology have been significantly improved.
Monsanto’s technology is used in 90% of genetically modified crops grown around the world, and many of Monsanto’s products dominate the United States and the world.
They consider themselves to be figures like Bruno and Copernicus, who insist on the truth but are incomprehensible and even cursed by the ignorant and superstitious traditional conservative forces.
Even in the face of doubt, resistance, and slander, we are still on the right path.
Everyone believes in a better future.
However,
When Brett, the always determined CEO, told them that Monsanto was facing huge troubles and even a life-or-death crisis, most of them were confused.
“What happened?”
“Is today April Fool’s Day?”
“Our herbicides and seeds are selling like hotcakes, so why is there a life and death crisis? ”
Brett motioned for everyone to be quiet.
Then he looked at the R&D directors of Monsanto's three major seed companies, Dika, Asgro, and Monsoy.
Dika Seed Company, responsible for the development and production of crop varieties in the federal Midwest agricultural production area;
Asgro, responsible for North and South America;
Monsoy , Brazil’s largest soybean seed producer;
These three people all know something about the situation.
After hesitating for a moment, Garcia, the technical director of Dika Seed Company who was most familiar with the situation, finally spoke up and said:
“In the central and western regions of our country, a weed was discovered that grows widely in soybean and corn fields. Inside, this weed is highly resistant to Roundup herbicide ”
“It is stronger than our carefully cultivated Roundup second-generation soybean seeds, and we have not yet found a way to deal with it. ”< br>
“This weed is a mutation of Tribulus terrestris.”
“It is currently spreading rapidly in the Midwest. Once infected, crop yields will be greatly reduced.”
< br>
Following Garcia's voice, the faces of Monsanto's senior executives who came to the meeting became solemn.
I quickly realized the seriousness of the matter.
Roundup glyphosate herbicide was born more than 40 years ago and has long since expired. It is currently being produced in countries around the world.
Especially in China, the output is the highest.
But this does not prevent it from still being an important business for Monsanto, and it is even more beneficial when paired with Roundup Ready seeds.
Seeds and herbicides are Monsanto’s main revenue streams.
In 2007, the sown area of Roundup Ready series soybean varieties in the federation reached 435 million acres, accounting for 95% of the federal soybean planting area.
The sown area of Roundup Ready II transgenic corn this year also exceeded 194 million acres, accounting for 40% of the federal corn sown area.
Genetically modified seeds are the foundation for Monsanto’s successful transformation.
If glyphosate cannot kill weeds, not only will farmers not buy their herbicides, they may even throw away the seeds.
You may also face the danger of extremely strong public opinion!
How do weeds mutate?
It must be genetically modified!
Quantitative changes lead to qualitative changes. In just ten years, it has caused plant mutations and ecological and environmental crises.
What next?
This weed will become the best weapon in the hands of GMO opponents.
To describe it as a life and death crisis is not an exaggeration.
Quiet!
The silence is terrifying!
“Don’t be too frustrated.”
Brett broke the silence and said: "The biotechnology department is working hard to uncover the genes of this weed."
"Monsanto's agricultural biotechnology is the world's leading, and others cannot be ahead of us. Give a solution."
Someone asked: "How long will it take?"
"At least 1 to 2 years, maybe longer." Brett said: "And it should be hidden soon. I can’t stand it anymore.”
“There are more and more farms troubled by weeds, and harvesting has begun, and there will be more and more negative news.”
"This requires everyone to work together, on the one hand to strengthen new product research, and on the other hand to be prepared to deal with the storm."
"These two years will be the most difficult two years for Monsanto."
After the meeting, everyone in the group was silent, preparing to face the sudden storm!
And Brett separately found the futures trading department to prepare for the market reversal.
…
Similar to Dow AgroSciences and Monsanto, DuPont Pioneer Hi-Breds and DuPont Plant Protection also noticed anomalies.
Weeds in the northern Great Plains and fire ants in the south are getting out of control. As soon as the latest research report came out, DuPont realized the seriousness of the matter.
Furthermore, in DuPont’s investigation and analysis, the damage caused by red fire ants is obviously more serious, and its damage to the soil is stronger!
But DuPont also chose to keep it secret for the time being. No one wants to take the initiative to get involved in this kind of thing.
They also know that problems can never be hidden.
The farmer knows something is wrong. Although he doesn’t know the cause yet, when things get bigger and bigger, it will definitely explode.
However, this time difference is enough for some people to maximize their interests.
——
While the undercurrent in North America is surging, the land in the East is ushering in a picture of a good harvest.
Grains of soybeans and corn are being returned to warehouses one after another, and the harvest is as expected. News about high and ultra-high yields that break out from time to time is even more popular.
But in fact, the industry is not that easy. How to digest excess production capacity has become a new problem.
Compared to the slight decline in soybean prices, the pressure on the corn market is significantly greater.
Even if large corn processing companies such as Jiahe, Guograin, Guofang, and Yufeng Industrial make full efforts to purchase and reserve corn, they cannot stop the surge in output.
The office of a farm in Yumen.
Chen Yanqiu, director of international grain trade of Jiahe Cereals and Oils, was sitting on the sofa, sipping tea and expressing his doubts.
“The price of domestic corn is falling faster than that of foreign countries. The profit from the price difference and export tax rebate is okay, but if we don’t take action quickly and the price difference shrinks, the profit will become lower and lower, or even a loss.”
This is his judgment based on the current situation.
As the corn harvest progresses, subsequent prices will be under increasing pressure.
For grain trade at this time, the turnover rate must be fast enough to be profitable and also be able to alleviate the domestic surplus pressure.
However, the boss suddenly slowed down exports.
He was very puzzled.
Guo Yang did not intend to tell him the reason, just like Gaode and others did not know why they wanted to speed up the establishment of long positions.
“The price of domestic corn is too low, which is not conducive to social stability. Well, some people are angry at Tianhe.”
“Is the boss optimistic about the market price? He thinks the price is high. Room for growth.”
"Yeah." Guo Yang said with a smile: "The price of crude oil is too high. In theory, as long as the price of crude oil is above 50 US dollars per barrel, bioenergy has prospects. At this price, bioenergy can be considered lucrative."
For Chen Yanqiu, this reason is too far-fetched.
But he knew that the boss must have his reasons. The huge success in futures made him choose to trust unconditionally.
Guo Yang said: "If you have time, you can go to the northwest. Many scenic spots are beautiful during this period."
"Yes." Chen Yanqiu said with a smile: "I plan to go to Xinjiang Province Look at the cotton.”
Guo Yang calmed down and said: "That's fine."
During this period, cotton harvesting has gradually entered the harvest period, but cotton is mainly picked by hand, which is usually picked once a week at this time.
Machine-picked cotton still has to wait until it is fully mature, and picking is usually started around the beginning of winter.
Farms growing Tianmian 20 also ushered in a bumper harvest. Compared with last year, the high yield this year is more stable, and 500 kilograms is the entry standard.
However, compared with last year, the price has dropped slightly, and overall supply and demand are still in excess.
However, in cotton, most farmers can still make money.
Far less tragic than the corn market.
Corn farmers have a love-hate relationship with Tianhe Seed Industry, which can bring extremely high yields, but the profits are not as good as last year.
Farmers who have not sown seeds or bought Tianhe seeds are more resentful.
As for other seed companies, as well as dealers and agricultural input trading companies, during this wave of decline, strong hostility towards Tianhe Seed Industry broke out.
First, he had been bullied by Tianhe for a long time and struggled to survive in the seed industry. Now he finally got the opportunity, but he couldn't let it out.
Secondly, there is a serious oversupply of corn and it is not profitable, which will definitely affect the seed market next year. I couldn't eat meat in the first place, but now the amount of soup in the bowl has become less. How can I not hate it.
However, Tianhe has kept a low profile recently, trying not to be caught in trouble or lose money to avoid disasters.
At the same time, a group of people who spread rumors and slanders were also arrested to serve as a warning to others.
In addition to seed companies, Tianhe also has to deal with the ‘concern’ from the grain and oil industry.
No one thought that the end of the rising trend of edible oils might come from seed companies!
First, soybean prices fell and then rose, and then corn prices plummeted again, driving soybean prices down again.
This has also attracted great attention in the grain and oil industry.
Guo Guangfeng, chairman of Wilmar International and Yihai Kerry Group, said helplessly at a press conference on investment inspections.
“The sharp drop in corn prices not only hurt farmers, but also caused invisible problems to grain and oil processing companies.”
The reporter asked: "Isn't the decline in raw materials a good thing? Some time ago, edible oil processing plants raised prices one after another because of high costs."
Guo Guangfeng said: "It's too sudden."
Countless people He curled his lips, meaning that Yihai Jiali must still have a lot of food in stock!
The reporter asked: "Currently, the sales of corn in the production areas are seriously unsalable. Will Yihai Kerry assume its social responsibility and increase the purchase of corn?"
"I suggest you ask Jiahe about this matter. This is the instigator, why have they slowed down their corn purchases recently?”
"Does this mean that Yihai will not vigorously purchase corn at this time?"
Guo Guangfeng did not answer, but many people are guessing that it must be the case. It is not a wise move to purchase during a downward trend.
“When will the price of Arowana be reduced?”
Guo Guangfeng did not give an answer to this question, which cast a shadow over the investment conference that day.
Compared with Yihai's coercion, Luhua's chairman Sun Mengquan is much more direct.
"Luhua peanut oil will not reduce its price! The price of peanut raw materials is high, and there is no room for price reduction."
"Luhua is a high-end edible oil brand. We have confidence in our products. For peanut breeding research, Luhua Luhua is also very interested and hopes to cooperate with a powerful seed company like Tianhe. "
"Corn farmers have suffered heavy losses. Luhua will appropriately purchase and store corn and develop and produce corn oil products."< br>
In addition to Guo Guangfeng and Sun Mengquan, industry leaders such as Anbotai of Cargill China, Shi Kerong of Huifu Cereals and Oils, and Ning Gaoning of National Grain have all expressed their opinions on different occasions.
Some people accuse Jiahe of disrupting the market; some say they will cut prices;
Some people also promised to increase acquisition efforts and maintain market stability.
But they all undoubtedly mentioned Jiahe, believing that Jiahe was the culprit for the slow-selling corn, and deliberately concealed the sales of induced Tianyu, leaving everyone unprepared.
Bunge China CEO Yang Tairen even directly attacked Jiahe Cereals and Oils.
“Jiahe has completely violated the purpose of serving farmers. The unsaleable corn alone will cost Chinese farmers hundreds of billions of yuan this year!”
“As for Jiahe, in the After making crazy profits in the futures market, we are still waiting on the sidelines in the purchase and processing of corn, trying to obtain more profits.”
"Science cannot be kidnapped by greed. Jiahe's insatiable behavior is pushing countless farmers into the abyss."
Unlike the Internet industry bosses who frequently make headlines together, most of the grain and oil leaders He is low-key, rarely appears in the camera, and is always a king without seeing the king.
Now, they all expressed their opinions on the same matter.
This scene is extremely rare.
The impact is also extraordinary.
The pressure on Jiahe is also tremendous.
In particular, Jiahe’s factory has also slowed down its purchase of corn, which seems to have sent a signal to the industry.
Jiahe is not optimistic about the future of corn.
This has also caused other processing companies to slow down their acquisitions, fearing that Jiahe will release some unexpected news.
When he saw such an analysis, Guo Yang, who had been invisible in the countryside, couldn't help but smile.
"Every move is really being watched, but I guessed the wrong way. Jiahe has slowed down its acquisitions because the warehouse has been filled with grain."
"But the pressure is indeed increasing."
Not long ago, Bureau Nie called and asked why Jiahe had suspended acquisitions. Is it because the export was in trouble?
Guo Yang could only deal with it vaguely, and told Jiahe that the warehouse was full of grain and he had tried his best.
This is not a long-term solution.
Since the output has greatly exceeded expectations, even if the price is low enough, most farmers are not reluctant to sell.
Because the slower the move, the lower the price may be.
Especially for Tianyu growers, they will contact Jiahe’s factory to purchase as soon as the mature season comes. They are afraid that if it is too late, their existing profits will also be lost.
This is already panic selling.
But Guo Yang knew that the price should be over.
In fact, the more Jiahe stocks at this time, the more it will earn after the price rebounds.
However, the warehouse is already full, so there is no need to speed up exports. It will only make it easier for foreign traders.
Jiahe will not publicly declare that the warehouse is full of grain. What if others also increase their purchases, wouldn't that be a proper enemy?
It is better to store it in the hands of farmers.
Farmers who can withstand this wave of psychological pressure will also reap huge rewards after the rebound.
Can't bear it?
Sometimes the planting industry is so cruel.
At this time, Guo Yang still preferred the unruly demeanor of the farmers in the past few years. He would not sell if he said he would not sell, but I was reluctant to sell!
I won’t sell it even if the sky falls!
Instead of the scared look now.
…
Jiuquan Shangba.
Guo Yang observed the grain and oil processing factory here through the car window. There were several grain trucks lined up outside the factory gate.
But more and more farmers come to ask, when will the turn come?
Nowadays, although Jiahe’s processing plant is operating at full capacity, there are too many farmers who come to contact them every day, and most of them are notified to queue up.
The longer the queue, the tighter the string hanging in Guo Yang's heart became.
After watching outside the door for a while, Guo Yang asked Luo Xiu to drive into the factory. When he entered the factory, he saw the factory director Liao Hongxin surrounded by several large growers who came.
Liao Hongxin also noticed the boss's car, and his eyes indicated that he should leave quickly, but Guo Yang asked Luo Xiu to stop.
It doesn’t matter if you haven’t met him, but running away from him when you see him is not an option.
After getting off the bus, the big business owners were still noisy.
"Director Liao, when will it be my turn? The price is falling day by day, I'm so worried!"
"Director Liao, my family is just waiting to sell grain for the pot."
"Since we have cooperated with Tianhe for so many years, and we buy our seeds from Tianhe every year, Director Liao, just harvest my grain!"
"Why do you harvest Tianbao Cooperative's seeds first? You look down on our Shenghui Planting Cooperative, don’t you? I’ll sue you!”
Seeing Liao Hongxin rushing forward, Zhang Quan of Shenghui Corn Planting Cooperative shouted.
Suddenly, a voice came from behind.
"Who do you want to complain about? Tell me!"
Liao Hongxin also broke away at this time and said hello: "Chairman, why are you here?"
Several big growers were stunned, feeling a little scared. This was a big shot.
Jiahe is not as friendly to the people as it appears. The tragic situation of some surrounding farmers and companies that participated in the deck is still vivid in our minds.
Only Zhang Quan from Shenghui Cooperative still said with some dissatisfaction: "I just want to file a complaint against him!"
"Just because others are in front of you?"
"Isn't that enough?" Zhang Quan said angrily: "The price of food has dropped so fast now. If you don't sell it, you will lose money."
"Yes, big boss, Jiahe is a big company, you just do it, we all They are professional grain growers, and they only rely on the income from selling grains throughout the year."
Guo Yang looked at these people, and there were actually not many professional grain growers in Jiuquan.
The factory in Jiahe mainly processes sunflower, cottonseed, wheat, and corn. Although the production capacity is not high, the queue will not be long.
In the final analysis, it was widespread publicity in society that caused temporary selling panic.
After thinking about it, Guo Yang smiled and said: "Director Liao is helping you. Food prices will rise in the future."
"Rise? How?"
“There are reports of corn surplus across the country this year, with a surplus of 80 million tons! Even foreign countries have been affected, how can this increase?”
"Yes, if I can sell it quickly, I would rather admit a loss than sell it."
Guo Yang looked surprised and said, "You really want to sell it at a loss?"
How many people showed their faces? hesitate.
"In previous years, prices were low, and you all knew how to sell grain. But this year, the harvest has just begun, and you are all selling grain in a swarm. You are all crowded together. Can the price be high?"
"What if it happens? What should I do if I get caught?" Zhang Quan suddenly asked: "Will Jiahe buy everything like last year?"
At this moment, the phone in Guo Yang's pocket rang. It was Gao De. After answering the phone, Guo Yang couldn't help but laugh.
"If you really want to sell grain today, Jiahe will also collect it, but don't regret it."
Zhang Quan and others asked suspiciously: "Really?"
"Go back!" Seeing that several people were about to change their faces, Guo Yang laughed again: "The price of food is going to rise soon! You will really regret selling it!"
The mood of several big households suddenly changed. .
I got a call and said it was going to go up?
But Jiahe’s boss shouldn’t be able to deceive them, it’s only a few bucks!
Then wait two more days?
After several big players left, Guo Yang became more and more relaxed.
Farmers don’t have to face such a depressed market, Jiahe can still make the last profit!
Something finally happened in North America!
(End of this chapter)