Chapter 366 Migrant workers return to their hometowns; cotton futures (please vote!!)
“Not only have there been more people in the city, but the countryside is also lively now.”
“You have to be lucky to have Jiahe. "
"Yes, fortunately there is Jiahe." Qin Lijun nodded in agreement, "In the past two months, the security pressure in some provinces has been great, with theft, robbery, fraud, family disputes, and all kinds of conflicts. Here we come.”
“For migrant workers, it’s okay to stay at home for a few days, but problems will arise if you stay idle for a long time.”
In just a few months, the impact of the financial crisis has been felt physically.
The decrease in export orders has led to a large number of migrant workers in the southeastern coastal areas going out of business, losing their jobs, and returning home.
Before the end of the year, the National Bureau of Statistics publicly stated that more than 70 million migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, which is a rare economic phenomenon in the past decade.
In ancient times, people who were employed in exile were called "goose households", which means that they are like wild geese that come and go forever;
In English, migrant workers are called "migrant workers". It means leaving one's hometown and migrating back and forth like a migratory bird.
This group is a vulnerable group in society. The financial crisis and unemployment wave have made them face unprecedented difficulties and tests.
Relevant departments have already issued notices, requiring all localities to prepare for reception and comfort.
The early return of migrant workers will undoubtedly add new pressure to the already severe local employment situation.
Long Province, as one of the major provinces exporting labor services to foreign countries, is also the same.
But Qin Lijun still wanted to come to Jiahe to drink tea with Guo Yang. Naturally, this problem in Jiuquan has been solved.
The root cause still has to fall on Jiahe.
From the beginning of the year to the end of the year, river cleaning and construction, ecological greening, water-saving drip irrigation and other projects in the Shule River Basin have not stopped, and each of them requires sufficient labor.
Manpower is also needed for the management, management and protection of saline-alkali land in the middle reaches of the Tuolai River and the Yanshan River Irrigation Area.
An energy forest project was launched at the end of the year.
There is a wave of unemployment along the coast, and there is a labor shortage in Jiuquan. Now that people are returning, it is just the right time.
In other cities and towns in the province, due to the sudden increase in manpower, they are also eager to speed up the implementation of energy forests.
“You can still work in winter!”
“The base contract in the township will be signed immediately, and the relevant departments that stop the trouble will come directly to arrest people.”
“Province Meteorological departments in Lihe and other places analyze and collect meteorological information at any time to avoid unnecessary losses caused by meteorological factors.”
“We must cooperate with the owner to win this winter construction battle”
Jiahe also hoped to retain this batch of manpower, and hit it off with the government, construction units, and supervision units, and the project progress suddenly accelerated in December.
Leveling the land, clearing the original low-efficiency crops, weeds and trees, irrigation ditches, river management, compost fermentation, laying of drip irrigation pipes...
In the Hexi Corridor and Longzhong area, rural areas all over the country It was still a busy scene. Under the leadership of the owner Jiahe Group, various construction units, villagers' organizations and cooperatives had high morale and fought hard against the wind and snow, setting off a climax of winter construction.
Every work in Jiuquan has basically been arranged, but Guo Yang cannot see Qin Lijun being so leisurely.
A public servant of the people must have the consciousness to serve the people.
"Leader, just letting farmers work is not a long-term solution." Guo Yang said: "The project will be completed one day."
Qin Lijun drank kenaf tea happily, "At that time, the economic situation should be Is it getting better?”
“Local development also needs people.”
“What do you want to do?”
“Skills are the capital of employment for migrant workers.” Yang smiled and said: "The city can organize more training."
"For example, training on agricultural machinery driving and maintenance, vegetable cultivation and processing, and various types of breeding."
"At the same time, the city will provide some preferential policies on land, taxation, and loans to mobilize migrant workers to return to their hometowns to start businesses. Enthusiasm."
Qin Lijun said: "You want people to do the cultivation of vines, right?"
"The leader still understands me." Guo Yang smiled, "But this is a good idea. The city also has great benefits.”
“I think you think I’m disturbing your work.”
Guo Yang smiled and said nothing.
Qin Lijun left cursing, but Guo Yang did not forget to remind him.
"Have you seen the experience of getting rich? You have to pull some successful cases to attract people."
"Busy about your business."
Guo Yang does have a lot of things. To be busy, the pace of energy forest and water-saving fallow projects has accelerated significantly recently, not only in the northwest, but also in the south.
The third and fourth 100,000 acres in Guangxi Province have already entered the transfer process, and have been continuously paid into the special account.
New progress has also been made in Chuxiong and Panxi, Yunnan Province.
Quan Wang also acquired 20,000 acres of forest land in Panxi as a base for neem trees.
As for Jatropha, due to Chuxiong’s proactive invitation, there is no mess left in the local area. Jiahe Biochemical has transferred to Chuxiong.
The local area also has ecological afforestation tasks. In the past, economic forests such as walnuts and chestnuts were planted.
But maybe because they haven’t experienced too many investment routines, the local villagers easily accepted Jatropha.
Afforestation in the mountainous areas of the Chuxiong Valley is progressing extremely smoothly, and the feedback from Jiahe Biochemical is also very interesting.
“Local farmers think that anyway, they have a big boss to take over, and they still have money to get, so they are very motivated to plant trees.”
“If there are farmers in Chuxiong everywhere who are so easy to communicate with, Jiahe’s How much faster can the energy forest project be?”
“The folk customs are simple!”
Quanwang’s employees interrupted at this time, “How can we not be honest?”
“The farmers who grow pyrethrum in Honghe and Yuxi have paid in vain for several years in a row, and they owe tens of millions of yuan.”
“The person in charge was only beaten once, but the factory can still produce normally, and the equipment is still there.”
“After King Quan took over, the farmers happily planted pyrethrum again. They made a fortune last year, and farmers in Luxi are enthusiastic about planting this year, with output and area hitting new highs. "
Yun Province will be a holy land for bosses from all over the country to invest in agricultural planting in the future.
However, it has not yet been developed. The first person to develop the potential of fruit cultivation in Yunnan Province was a boss in Wenling, Zhejiang Province.
“Chasing the sun and growing watermelons” is used to describe the enthusiasm of Zhejiang growers who leave their hometowns and work tirelessly.
When watermelons were in recession, the boss of Zhejiang Province developed grapes and achieved amazing results in Summer Black and Sunshine Rose.
The two pyrethrum processing companies, Honghe Senju and Yuxi Subcritical, acquired by Quanwang, have also turned losses into profits this year.
The benefits are good and the quality has improved. Quanwang also increased the purchase price of dried pyrethrum flowers.
As early as when he took over, Quan Wang promised to raise the price for every 10 percentage point increase in the active ingredients of pyrethrum.
Originally, the purchase prices of first-, second- and third-grade dried flowers per kilogram were 11 yuan, 9 yuan and 7 yuan.
Now it has become 15 yuan, 13 yuan, 11 yuan.
The first price increase brought huge profits to the growers in Luxi and Yuxi.
Investing in agriculture in Yun Province, apart from the rising land rent in the future, all the troubles encountered at the grassroots level can be easily solved.
However, the process of introducing Jiahe Jatropha in Chuxiong was not without its hidden worries.
Jiahe’s team described one of its leaders as follows: The investment promotion style is very fanatical. Even at the meeting, they were still smoking water pipes.
Guo Yang carefully read the proposal for expanding the jatropha planting area in Chuxiong for a while in his office.
The basic conditions for afforestation are relatively poor.
Afforestation in hot and dry river valleys was once regarded as a "forbidden zone" by forestry circles at home and abroad.
‘Trees are planted every year without seeing the trees, and forests are planted every year without seeing the trees. '
"You can see the Jinsha River standing on the hill, but you can't reach it or use it, so the river just flows away."
"Lack of water, soil, high temperature Dry and hot, with high mountains and steep slopes.”
This is the current situation of afforestation in dry and hot valleys such as the Jinsha River, but Jatropha is more suitable for these areas.
Not to mention the variety from the seed store.
Technical problems can definitely be solved through exploration. Farmers are very enthusiastic about the part of the forest land currently being tested.
The people here are so stubborn. They plant every year and die every year, but they still plant because there are always trees that can survive.
The only concern comes from the official level.
Guo Yang thought this was not a big trouble. After thinking for a while, he signed and approved the first phase of 1 million acres.
This small area is just a drop in the bucket for Chuxiong as a whole.
Chuxiong’s forestry land area is 31 million acres, but in fact many river valleys are still bare at this time.
This one million acres is equivalent to a demonstration. In the future, when the benefits are good, it will drive more planting areas.
However, this is still far from Guo Yang's purpose.
Guo Yang can only speculate on the route of water diversion from the Hongqi River since there is no relevant information available yet.
The starting point of water diversion is the big bend of the Brahmaputra River, which is undoubtedly near MT County.
The big bend - Nujiang - Lancang River - Jinsha River, as long as water can be transferred to the Jinsha River, the remaining sections can be completely handled with the future domestic infrastructure capacity.
As for the water diversion hub on the Jinsha River, the best location should be Tiger Leaping Gorge, located in DQ Prefecture, the capital of Shangri-La.
It’s not too far away from Chuxiong, and it’s not too close either. You can barely plant jatropha trees.
But several other water transfer hubs are at higher altitudes and the warm and hot conditions are not so good.
We can only find another way to cultivate cold-resistant Jatropha species. In addition, the biggest controversy near such a large project is ecological protection.
For example, although the Tiger Leaping Gorge Hydropower Station has passed the planning, it has been in a state of pending construction for a long time.
The biggest obstacle is the opposition from environmentalists and national environmental protection authorities.
There is not much that Jiahe can do. First, develop bioenergy to make the development of Hongqi River valuable, and the second is ecological protection.
As for the construction, we still have to rely on infrastructure maniacs, or are there any plants that can help dig tunnels?
After thinking wildly in the office for a while, Guo Yang wrote down some varieties he intended to cultivate before going home from get off work.
It was cold in winter and it was impossible to exercise outdoors, so Guo Yang had someone renovate a gym in the villa.
Aside from being a bit boring, there are no other flaws.
I played games for a while in the evening. Because I was not willing to spend money, my account was already up, but the more I played, the less interesting I became.
Early the next morning, when I went to the company to have breakfast, I happened to see Guan Cheng. I remembered the nearest cotton market and sat there.
“How is the cotton picker?”
Guan Cheng moved the plate aside and said with a smile: "A total of 120 units have been delivered this year."
Machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang Province has just started, and this number is already close to one-third of the market in Xinjiang Province One, but that's not what Guo Yang cares about.
“I know that, but what about the performance in production?”
“There is still a gap between John Deere and John Deere, but it is better than Guizhou Airlines. Guizhou Airlines’ delivery volume cannot compare with ours. Deere’s It is too expensive, and Fengkai’s market competitiveness is very strong.”
“This year’s machine-picked cotton area should be close to 1 million acres, with an average of more than 8,000 acres per machine.”
Guo Yang praised: "The failure rate should not be high."
"Yes, each machine is estimated to harvest more than 4 million kilograms." Guan Cheng said: "This data should be the highest in Xinjiang. Other cotton fields There is no such high yield. ”
Machine-picked cotton is a complex system: modeled planting management-mechanized picking and transportation-technical processing and production.
It also involves machine-picked cotton varieties. Fengkai developed and produced 30 units last year, and cooperated with the Corps to harvest more than 100,000 acres of cotton fields and completed the finalization of the cotton picking machine.
Quantitative production will be achieved this year.
This speed is roughly the same as that of Guizhou Airlines, but Guizhou Airlines only delivered 100 units in batches this year.
In any case, the dominance of foreign products in the domestic cotton picking machine market has been broken, ending the history of relying entirely on imports.
Guo Yang knew that Dil Tiantuo was so angry that his teeth were itching, but just like the various difficulties faced by Chinese vegetables exported to island countries, if you want to make other people's money, you must have your own advantages.
And Deere’s current advantage is only more mature technology.
However, the price is too high. Fengkai's cotton picker is priced at 880,000 yuan per unit, while Deere's is at least 1.5 million yuan.
The huge price gap is enough to smooth out the immaturity of the technology.
Fengkai also has a unique advantage, high-yielding Tianmian 20 seeds - suitable for machine-picked planting mode - tailor-made cotton picking machines.
The production of Tianmian in the past two years is proof.
Guihang also has an interest-alignment mechanism. Among its shareholders are a certain division of the Corps and the Shihezi government. It was born with sales.
Only foreign companies such as Deere and Case had all the profits taken away by him.
I chatted with Guan Cheng for a while while eating. After returning to the office, Guo Yang also became concerned about this year's cotton.
Except for the exciting domestic cotton pickers, this year’s cotton market is not wonderful.
It is also due to the impact of the financial crisis that international cotton consumption has decreased. At the same time, the decline in oil has also made chemical fiber products more substitutable, and the demand for cotton is very weak.
In addition, there is great pressure on imports.
Guo Yang asked the secretarial team to compile a report on the recent situation in the cotton spinning market.
There are overwhelming complaints from cotton spinning enterprises.
“The quality of cotton in our country is poor, there are many problems, and it cannot fully meet domestic production needs, which has increased the burden on enterprises and is very unfair to the textile industry!”
“Slippery The quasi-tax is cutting the meat of cotton spinning enterprises!”
“Cotton prices in Jiangsu Province have plummeted—the purchase price of seed cotton is less than 2.5 yuan/jin”
"Cotton farmers are unwilling to sell, and it is difficult to sell cotton, while cotton companies are unwilling and afraid to harvest."
"In 2008, the price of agricultural inputs rose sharply, and the actual income of cotton farmers was not even enough to cover the cost."
Cotton farmers are sad, cotton spinning companies are both troubled and extremely angry, and the sliding tax has seriously affected the import of cotton.
Sliding tariff is a tariff system specially designed for cotton imports, with tax rates fluctuating between 5% and 40%.
High-quality cotton has a high price and the tax is low; low-grade cotton has a low price and the tax is high.
Guo Yang paid special attention to the current price of imported cotton. The CIF price of 1% tariff is 10,065 yuan/ton, which is 1,570 yuan lower than the domestic cotton price.
But with the sliding tax, the import cost for cotton spinning companies will be 300 yuan higher.
It is equivalent to cotton spinning companies paying an extra 1,870 yuan in tax when buying imported cotton.
Then we have to participate in international competition...
It can be said that the sliding tax has been resisted by cotton spinning enterprises from the moment it came out.
But it’s useless. For the safety of cotton production, there must be a sliding scale tax, and in order to keep cotton spinning companies competitive, the tax rate is also being adjusted.
But in this year’s environment, no matter how we adjust, cotton farmers and the textile industry will have a hard time.
Perhaps the only good news is that North American cotton production is reduced, otherwise the international cotton price may be 1,000 yuan lower.
Although cotton prices have been falling, the basic pattern of domestic cotton production insufficient to meet demand remains unchanged.
North American production is reduced, but Asan’s cotton is still strong.
But seeing the trend of cotton futures prices on the Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange falling and never turning back, Guo Yang couldn't help but frown.
“This is too many empty orders!”
Jiahe Grain and Oil’s secretary who is stationed next to Guo Yang is named Jiang Wen, who is in his thirties. He said: “It’s a little unusual. This situation is still going down!"
Guo Yang asked: "Is the State Reserve buying cotton?"
"It was started at the beginning of the month." Jiang. Wen said: "We are also buying cotton."
"How much did you collect?"
"More than two hundred thousand tons."
"Not much."
Jiang Wen thought that one hundred thousand tons was not too small, and They are all made from Xinjiang province cotton and are inherently more expensive.
“The purchasing department has spent more than one billion to purchase cotton from cotton farmers, but the decline cannot be stopped.”
Guo Yang looked at the price again. The futures price was 2.5 yuan, and the spot price in Jiangsu Province, Henan Province and other places may be even lower.
It has already fallen below the cost price.
This is not normal.
“Who is the main force in short selling?” Guo Yang stared at Jiang Wen, “Don’t tell me I don’t know.”
Before the sliding quasi-tax came out, domestic cotton futures prices often rose and fell sharply. Most of the main force came from Zhejiang merchants, Guo Yang did the same this time in the past, but he guessed wrong.
"The main force is a few foreign investors." Jiang Wen said: "The largest number of empty orders comes from 0153, which is the seat of Louis Dreyfus."
"Louis Dreyfus has also been the main purchaser of domestic cotton in the past two years. They With low-interest loans provided by foreign banks, at least hundreds of thousands of tons of cotton have been purchased in Xinjiang Province, Hubei Province, Jiangsu Province, Henan Province and other places this year. "
"All of them can be used for delivery at the Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange. Cotton.”
Guo Yang raised his eyebrows, shorting futures at high levels and buying spot at low levels, the same old routine.
“Can’t foreign capital only purchase lint cotton, but not seed cotton?”
"Foreign capital provides funds, and the enterprises active in the acquisition market are Wenzhou merchants." Jiang Wen quickly said:
"The main influence is also the international price, and the purchasing department believes that there is still room for decline."
It is declining. It is estimated that not many people will grow cotton next year. Whether it is seed sales or cotton spinning processing, what is needed is a stable market.
Only speculators will like the turbulent market. After thinking for a moment, Guo Yang made a decision.
“Open long orders, and we accept short orders from foreign investors.”
"Ah?"
"How much courage do you think foreign investors have to continue to open short orders?" Guo Yang sneered: "Force them to deliver physical goods."
"Jiahe can't eat hundreds of thousands of tons of cotton. "
With billions of funds and investment in futures, ordinary companies really don't have this ability.
Jiahe has the financial capacity, but the risks involved are not small. If the fundamentals continue to deteriorate and prices continue to fall, they will face large losses.
Guo Yang didn't have this psychological burden.
Everything has its value. If it falls below the cost price, sooner or later the value will return.
Moreover, there is obviously a problem with TMD now. Cotton in Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Hubei and other places is generally grown on saline-alkali soil because rice and corn cannot be grown.
But soybeans can be grown, and alfalfa can improve saline-alkali soil!
This year, the country's cotton sown area has dropped significantly, enough to offset the increase in Xinjiang Province's output.
These people are just scared out of their wits!
Jiahe wants to squeeze out foreign capital.
I will make a profit if you close the position. You have to deliver the physical goods. Maybe I will pay you some labor fees. Thank you for your hard work in purchasing.
In the next two days,
Jiahe Cereals and Oils borrowed a sum of funds from the headquarters for this cotton operation.
The cotton trading volume of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased rapidly, and the futures price also immediately rose, but it reached a stalemate at 2.8 yuan/jin.
The main foreign short sellers, represented by Louis Dreyfus, began to invest more funds. Jiahe was not in a hurry. Stabilizing the price at a nearby level was victory.
2.8 yuan/jin is already higher than the average production cost of cotton farmers of 2.7 yuan.
In fact, in this year of general losses, there are still cotton farmers who can make stable profits.
As long as the output is high and the quality is good, the cost will naturally be lower.
This is the case with Zou Qing of the Corps.
Now, he has become accustomed to rotating cotton with alfalfa or soybeans, which has great benefits.
This year, he once again had a bumper harvest.
Most cotton farmers in other areas of Xinjiang are losing money, but he can still make a profit, which makes him extremely proud.
“Do you know what technology is?”
"This is called technology, this is strength."
People who know the inside story will say with disdain: "Isn't it just that the seeds are selected well?"
Unfortunately, 20 Tianmian It is suitable for the northwest region, and the area of Xinjiang this year is only 25 million acres.
Even if the national area is greatly reduced, there are still 80 million acres.
The increase in production brought by Tianmian is not enough to fill this gap, and genetically modified insect-resistant cotton from Monsanto and Genesis still dominates.
Compared with the two, Tianmian 20 has the advantage of high yield and disease resistance, but it is not as good as transgenic in dealing with bollworm.
So, Tianmian promotion is not without its opponents.
Furthermore, Xinjiang Province is too big and sparsely populated. There are often unethical seed companies renting other people's high-yield fields to hold on-site meetings.
Some cotton farmers are also willing to cooperate, which not only makes more money, but also reduces competitors.
As a result, the promotion of Tianmian was extremely slow.
Sometimes the seeds are delivered to cotton farmers, but they have to buy counterfeit goods.
…
Wilmar and ADM are planning big moves, Louis Dreyfus suddenly appears again, and Cargill is also rumored to acquire Provimi.
Guo Yang was not able to enjoy this New Year's Day holiday.
Instead, discuss with the Jiahe Cereals and Oils team how Jiahe should respond next.
"ADM originally held Wilmar's shares. We can't stop them from merging or in-depth cooperation." Gaode mused: "We can only start from the outside."
"Domestic public opinion pressure can be used."
This is an old method. If two major international grain merchants merge, it will look really huge.
“But this is not enough.”
Guo Yang said: “You can start from the government. The pressure for soybean acquisition is so great, it is normal to give some subsidies to the acquiring companies, and this subsidy is only for domestic capital. .”
Everyone's eyes lit up.
“This is a good way to support national soybean processing enterprises!”
“Isn’t it going to merge? It can also encourage mergers and reorganizations between domestic capitals, while foreign capitals have to make domestic acquisitions and mergers. Follow the rules strictly."
"Don't think too far." Guo Yang said with a smile: "Is there any other way?"
After a moment of silence,
< br>
"You can go to Southeast Asia to acquire or develop oil palm plantations." Chen Yanqiu said.
Southeast Asia is definitely better than Congo, and Jiahe also has palm tree varieties.
The key is to steal a home!
(End of this chapter)