Chapter 361 Single-digit number of failures
As soon as Musk’s tweet was sent out, Amerikan netizens quickly responded and questioned whether Musk’s SpaceX can still complete such a task.
“Elon, it is more realistic to let the starship go to Mars first.”
“SpaceX should consider landing on the moon before the damn Chinese, rather than orbiting the moon space station . ”
“Elon, let’s be realistic, we have seen too many delays in your plan.”
Musk’s ambitions about the lunar space station are all filled with doubts from Amerikan netizens.
This is mainly because after the successful execution of the Starship recyclable mission, Musk and NASA plan to not only complete sending cargo to the moon in 2026, but also launch the first starship to Mars. ship.
However, the people of America who were full of expectations until 2027 did not see this scene happen.
Musk naturally would not admit that this was because of SpaceX. He pushed the problem to NASA: "The starship technology is mature enough, and we can go to the moon or Mars long ago.
But because NASA’s orbital propellant warehouse has not been completed, SpaceX is unable to send starships to more distant destinations as planned.”
Who doesn’t know how to blame others? It’s not SpaceX, it’s NASA.
Such an answer can fool netizens, but there is no way to fool the congressmen in Washington.
Although none of the gentlemen are professionals, everyone is still shocked by the rapid progress of China's aerospace industry and how Amerikan wants to catch up and take the lead in the moon landing race.
After all, the Lunar Space Station is not a moon landing. As long as Amerikan can complete the manned moon landing before China, Amerikan will still win.
“Elon, can’t Starship go to the moon?” a congressman asked at a special hearing on Capitol Hill.
Sometimes everyone doesn't want to know the answer, but just wants to confirm that they are not lagging behind China in the space race, and want to use this fact to give themselves some inner comfort.
Just like the American supporters on the Simplified Chinese Internet need to rely on the achievements of SpaceX to prove that American is still far ahead of other countries in high-end manufacturing and is at the top of the blue star, they need It's about winning, not about how interested I am in aerospace.
“With the thrust of a starship, it is completely possible to go to Mars or the moon, but it has no way to come back.
The reason why a starship is a starship is that it is the largest The advantage is that it can return to the earth, which helps reduce the overall cost.
As a 5,000-ton rocket, if the starship is a disposable rocket, its cost will be too expensive. >
In the original plan, we needed to use an orbital propellant warehouse in low Earth orbit to refuel it.
After refueling, go to the moon, and then launch back to the moon again.
NASA has always told us that the orbital propellant warehouse will be completed soon, but we have never been able to see the actual completion time of this project. ”
The orbital propellant warehouse plan, which has been officially promoted since 2010, still has frequent problems until 2027, so much so that after comparing SpaceX and NASA, people wonder whether SpaceX is too good or NASA is not.
“After using up most of the fuel, the starship will have no way to return without replenishing fuel. "Musk said.
NASA Administrator Nielsen immediately said: "There are many technical problems that are difficult to solve at present.
We have completed many docking tests in low-Earth orbit, but the main problem is the low-temperature propellant The problem of gradual evaporation in space has not yet been solved. However, we will send the starship to the moon as soon as possible after solving this problem. And we are jointly responsible for the low-temperature propellant storage plan with SpaceX. .”
Nielsen finally added, don’t pass the blame on me, this is not NASA’s only project.
Speaking of the cryogenic propellant project, this is a project with a very long history, dating back to the 1960s.
In 1969, NASA proposed a plan called the Space Transportation System. This plan hoped to develop a reusable manned spacecraft to continue traveling to the moon or even Mars.
The entire plan includes a space station in a low-Earth orbit of more than 400 kilometers, which can accommodate 6 to 12 people, and a space station in lunar orbit that can accommodate 50 to 100 people, as well as to help humans travel to and from the earth, Space station, lunar space station and spacecraft on the moon.
The spacecraft adopts a modular design. Combining multiple units together or using multi-section propulsion can handle large-scale transportation tasks. The spacecraft will be supported by propellant depots in low Earth orbit and lunar orbit.
The whole plan looks very familiar. It can be said that SpaceX is now reviving NASA's aborted plan fifty years ago and implementing it with 21st century technology.
One of the most critical technologies is propellant. Fossil fuel propellant has an upper limit. From a cost perspective, there is no way to increase it indefinitely. This requires something to add propellant to it midway.
In NASA's design, it is an orbital cryogenic propellant warehouse.
The docking itself is not difficult. A complete technical plan was proposed in 10 years. For example, China also conducted a satellite-to-satellite in-orbit refueling test in 2016.
But its difficulty lies in the evaporation of the propellant. As mentioned earlier, the propellant is at low temperature. The low-temperature propellant will evaporate at a slow rate, and the less propellant left, the slower it will evaporate.
This is the problem that's stuck NASA.
“Nielsen, my opinion is that we don’t need to wait until the cryogenic propellant warehouse is perfect before launching it, but launch it first. Even if there is a risk of evaporation, it will not affect our use of it to go to the moon and back. "Musk said.
Musk's principle is always to adopt radical solutions, and he never worries about failure.
If the risk of propellant evaporation is not considered, then this technical principle is equivalent to multiple starships cooperating to go to the moon.
It is equivalent to the starship traveling part of the journey, then starship B refueling starship A, starship B returning to the earth, and starship A continuing to the moon.
This set of technical routes is absolutely achievable, but why has NASA not adopted it before and instead kept delaying the decision?
The essential reason is that there is money for delayed tickets. SpaceX relies on orders from NASA, and NASA relies on federal grants. Continuous delays, coupled with the unsmooth progress of the publicity aerospace project and the huge threat posed by Tokyo University in the aerospace field, this combination is a surefire way to ask for money from the lords in Congress.
After all, millions of water workers depend on their food and clothing.
In April 2021, NASA launched a supplier tender for the lunar landing vehicle, and the project was handed over to Musk's SpaceX, while Blue Origin was unsuccessful.
The cryogenic propellant warehouse is an important part of the plan proposed by SpaceX. Blue Origin chose to protest to the federation, believing that the space propellant in the starship's technical plan has not been verified at all and is completely fantasy.
Blue Origin believes that SpaceX relied on fantasy to obtain this order, which seriously violated the principle of fair competition. It said that their technical solution had only undergone rigorous demonstration and asked the federal court to suspend the contract between NASA and SpaceX.
Blue Origin’s lawsuit delayed the entire plan for half a year.
Even though Blue Origin directly sued NASA, in order to appease Blue Origin, NASA still handed over the order of the lunar return module to Blue Origin.
If it is really for aerospace development, NASA should give all orders to SpaceX instead of finding ways to support SpaceX's competitors.
“Nelson, are we mature enough to go to the moon now?”
“If we just discuss going to the moon, our technology is mature.
But if you want to build a system that can travel back and forth between the moon and the earth on a regular basis, there are still a few technical difficulties that need to be overcome. Nelson murmured: "We should be committed to building a normal round-trip system between the earth and the moon at one time." "
"No, Nelson, it is more important for China and China to strive for first place in the return to the moon project. "A congressman said.
Musk added: "If we can communicate with Guangjia Aerospace and use Guangjia to complete the addition of low-temperature propellant, I think the entire cost will be lower.
We can consider cooperating with the Guangjia. This is a good opportunity to observe the internal structure of their port section. ”
Musk’s proposal was immediately opposed by the congressmen, and everyone’s almost subconscious reaction was that it would not work.
"If the technology has matured, then we do not need to cooperate with Guangjia Space. This is indirectly helping Guangjia prove that their port is a hub in the journey between the earth and the moon.
Although we have now allowed Guangjia Space Entering the Amerikan market, but Guangjia Aerospace is still our main competitor, and we should not provide assistance to them in this regard." The quick-responsive congressman has found a valid reason for rejection.
Spurred by the smooth entry of Guangjia into orbit, Washington has reached the goal of landing on the moon at all costs this year.
If possible, it would be best to send astronauts to the moon this year.
As for the Orion spacecraft not yet mature enough, then use the Dragon spacecraft to send astronauts up.
At least the outside world cannot be allowed to think that Amerikan has fallen behind China in technological competition.
In the long technical competition between Amerikan and China, China has been the perennial pursuer, and people have enough tolerance for it.
In other words, except for the people of China, the people and capital of other countries are tolerant enough. Even if you can't be first, but can be second, they will think you are awesome.
But Amerikan cannot do that. Amerikan's backwardness means that its past technological leadership has been shaken, and it means that the trinity of technology, military and finance is declining.
In the past, China's technological leadership was only focused on single-point breakthroughs, which has had such a serious impact on Amerikan.
This year, not only did Guangjia Aerospace launch Guangjia, but Huaguo Aerospace also built a space station on the moon. American could not accept that it could clearly be ahead, but deliberately fell behind because of the conservative bureaucracy.
Faced with the success of the Guangjia, there was also extensive discussion on Twitter, Musk’s base camp.
“Essentially, NASA is working on new large-scale space projects (reusable first stage, reusable super-heavy launch vehicle, reusable spacecraft, low-orbit satellite internet constellation ) All the great successes in these are due to one company, namely SpaceX
Like Orbital Sciences and Boeing got the same NASA contract as SpaceX to launch cargo and crew to the International Space Station, but both. The rockets developed by this company are only useful for NASA contracts, and they have almost no commercial potential for self-sustainment.
Boeing even made a famous joke that it could not bring down the crew members of the International Space Station. < br>
Huaguo Aerospace is similar. Their large-scale projects all come from one company, Guangjia Aerospace.
One thing that Huaguo Aerospace is smarter than NASA is that they will not give orders to organizations other than Guangjia Aerospace, while NASA always tries to find ways to give orders to Boeing, Orbital Sciences and Blue Origin.
How can we have more SpaceX and less Boeing/Orbital Sciences when NASA does contracts? Should more consideration be given to the potential for business spin-offs?
These large defense contractors have never been able to exceed expectations. For example, Boeing often makes people feel astonished. They are Boeing, how could they make such low-level mistakes?
I think the essential gap between us and China is that NASA’s funds are wasted on these inefficient contractors. ”
"You are right. This can be clearly reflected in the commercial space station project. Small startups have energy and passion that large companies cannot have.
Blue Origin only knows to emphasize to everyone Our technology comes from Guangjia Aerospace. We are Guangjia Aerospace’s only partner in Amerikan. We are full of potential. They bought a space station room from Guangjia Aerospace and promoted it on the official website. But damn NASA will really give them expensive orders for deep space research and development projects because they have rooms on the Guangjia.
A large number of members of Kilometer Aerospace come from NASA, and they have a large number of engineers who have participated in the International Space Station project. Just because NASA will choose to give them the space station order without hesitation, they are completely waiting for NASA's order to survive.
On the contrary, like Vast, they hope to develop the smallest one without any NASA funds. The space station module is dedicated to building space camping cabins and working with SpaceX to realize the lowest-cost space tourism project. Their entire team is full of passion.”
“What NASA should do if it wants to become great again is to put everything together. All projects are given to SpaceX, allowing SpaceX to continue to expand. Even if NASA bureaucrats do nothing, the cost is lower than if they work.”
"When I saw the Guangjia go to space 320,000 kilometers away, I should be as shocked as my Chinese classmates three years ago when they saw the starship return and be caught by a pair of 'chopsticks'."
"Wright, like Musk, are both people favored by God. I never thought that launching a rocket could be as easy as drinking water. If it fails once, we will try it again. If it succeeds, their redundancy number of failures is single digits." , which was unimaginable before the birth of SpaceX and Light Armor Aerospace.
I have always suspected that they have similar high-precision simulation software internally, and the results run in the simulation software are consistent with reality.”
(End of this chapter)