Chapter 279 A real man never looks back at the blackboard
Gao Zhendong, who had been writing furiously, closed his pen and paper, cleared his throat, and set a tone: "Generally speaking, I think President Xiang There is nothing wrong with their accelerated testing method. "
It is impossible to set the tone unless someone has enough status in the relevant matters, because no one cares, and no matter how much you say, it can only be done. Personal opinion, on the contrary, even if it is a personal opinion, it can also be a tone.
Everyone is happy. After all, in general, despite their doubts, they still hope to promote the industrial production of urea as early as possible. Even if rice is harvested one season earlier, that's how much food it will be.
So when Gao Zhendong said these real words, everyone felt relieved. If someone with authority has spoken, there is hope.
Gao Zhendong first talked about the situation of the material itself: "As a researcher, I know very well about this material. The loss rate of its performance with corrosion is basically linear. Within the controllable range, there is no sharp deterioration of performance. situation, so its overall lifespan is predictable.”
With Gao Zhendong’s words, everyone was half relieved.
“Whether it is theory, metallography, or measured data, this has been proven.”
This is very important. Some materials or systems have mutation points, that is, when their performance Or when a certain characteristic parameter is lost to a certain extent, some characteristic parameters will drop off a cliff or change drastically.
This is more difficult to do because the mutation point is not static.
Gao Zhendong first made this point clear and gave everyone the first reassurance, and then talked about his second point of view. This point of view is more abstract because at this time, it does not exist yet.
"In addition, I have also done an analysis on the reliability and availability of the entire Xiangzong system, and the conclusion is that it is basically reliable, as long as there are no problems in the design, manufacturing, and construction."
This is a rather mysterious statement. Everyone is curious about how Gao Zhendong analyzed and came to this conclusion, including even Hu Suo from the Institute of Chemistry and Mr. Xiang himself.
We have the data ourselves, but we can’t analyze it. How did you analyze it?
But no one said this, for the same reason. He is a researcher of urea steel, and maybe he still has technologies and secrets that others don't know about.
The technology used by Gao Zhendong to analyze is indeed unknown to others, but it has nothing to do with urea steel, but is based on the perspective of cybernetics.
“While everyone was speaking just now, I modeled and analyzed the corrosion life of the entire production line based on my work experience and commonly used analysis methods, and based on the data reported to the general manager, and the conclusion is that it is completely consistent with Requirements.”
Everyone was in awe when they heard his words, modeling analysis
Don’t talk about that era, even in Gao Zhendong’s previous life, once it comes to mathematical modeling After analysis, everyone’s first reaction is still: “Holy shit, this is advanced.”
In the field of science and engineering, mathematics naturally stands at the top of the pyramid. There is no way around it.
However, some people still have some doubts. This person is none other than Mr. Xiang himself.
Because he knows the data in his report best, he understands very well that the amount of data in the report is far from enough to support a model and reach the point where it can be analyzed and predicted.
He is also eager to speed up the pace of industrial production of urea, but if it comes at the expense of Gao Zhendong's credibility, he feels it is still inappropriate. Director Gao has sacrificed too much.
So he said very euphemistically: "Director Gao, because the time is short, we don't have much data, and there is no good regularity."
He did not say that Gao Zhendong was considered worthy. No, the reason was actively attributed to the lack of time and poor data quality.
Gao Zhendong understood what he meant and said with a smile: "This method is quite special and does not have high requirements on the amount of data. I call it gray system theory."
As soon as these words came out, everyone was shocked.
Gao Zhendong’s words are really amazing, completely subverting existing theories and intuitions.
It’s not that others are ignorant, but that Gao Zhendong’s words are really too advanced.
Cybernetics, which is somewhat similar to gray system theory, should be traced back to fuzzy control theory, but when was fuzzy control theory born? It was in 1965.
In other words, it will take several years for a theory that is understandable and somewhat similar to appear, not to mention that gray system theory was actually only born in our country in the 1980s.
And the fuzzy control theory, in fact, the object of its research is still based on white systems, that is, systems with completely clear information. Correspondingly, a system whose information is completely unknown is a "black system". A related concept, "black box", is often mentioned in informatization.
The gray system, as the name suggests, is in the middle between the two. Some information is known and some information is unknown. The main research object is the uncertainty system of "small sample and poor information". Gao Zhendong saw that everyone had an expression of "Let me see how you are bragging", so he had to introduce the gray system theory first.
Gao Zhendong spent more than ten minutes briefly introducing the gray system theory, and finally concluded: "The advantage of this method is that the sample size is small and the regular distribution of the sample is not required. , the calculation workload is small, the qualitative and quantitative analysis results are consistent, and can be used for near, medium and long-term predictions, and the prediction accuracy is relatively high.”
However, this theory is too advanced and is extremely abstract for everyone now. Only a few people understand it at all.
"Director Gao, do you mean that you can predict the results out of thin air?"
Gao Zhendong shook his head: "It's not out of thin air. It still needs data support, but the requirements for data are relatively low. . And there are certain requirements for the evaluation objects and evaluation types, and the prediction methods are also limited.” Listen to ghost stories.
Gao Zhendong briefly introduced the five prediction methods of gray system theory, and then said: "To Mr. Xiang and his colleagues, this problem happens to be the simplest and most commonly used among them due to the stability of the corrosion degradation rate of the material. In the category of 'sequence prediction', the GM (1, 1) prediction model can be directly established for prediction. ”
Simple? Director Gao, are you redefining "simple"? Most people secretly complained about Gao Zhendong.
In fact, in the future, gray system theory will be widely used in the evaluation of military equipment. This is why Gao Zhendong dared to use it boldly. As for why he knew, it was because at the request of his instructor, He checked a lot of papers.
Seeing that everyone was still half-understanding, Gao Zhendong simply walked to the blackboard, took the chalk, and listed the partial differential equations of the GM (1, 1) model using the data in the report to the general manager. Start calculating on the spot.
While calculating, he also said to Mr. Xiang: "Mr. Xiang, I believe that after you finalize the report of this meeting, you should have some follow-up monitoring data, right?"
Everyone As soon as I heard it, I knew what he was going to do. It is better to compare the results directly. If they are right, it means that this method has a certain foundation.
What everyone wants is not 100%, but to have certain theoretical and evidence support. Just push the confidence level of things to a certain limit. If you have to be 100% sure of everything, then there is no need to do anything.
Gao Zhendong’s method is also a good proof.
As for Gao Zhendong, Mr. Xiang and their subordinates colluding, no one has ever thought about it. It’s not like that. They are all prominent figures in their respective systems and cannot commit the crime.
Although time is tight, fortunately, the calculation amount of this method itself is not large, and the amount of data they have is not large. In addition, Gao Zhendong’s enhanced brain is very easy to use, so the calculation speed is not high. slow.
A person in the conference room just watched Gao Zhendong write quickly on the blackboard.
The data were listed one by one on the blackboard. Finally, Gao Zhendong fitted a curve on the blackboard based on the predicted data.
After drawing the last stroke of the final curve and adding units to the coordinate system, Gao Zhendong threw away the chalk, turned to the leader of the chemical institute and said: "Boss, you can ask Mr. Xiang to get their follow-up Comparing the monitoring data with this curve, it should be not far off.”
Then he returned to his seat without looking back, his movements were smooth and extremely confident.
A real man never looks back at the blackboard.
The reason why Gao Zhendong has this confidence is that this matter to Mr. Xiang and others is relatively simple, and the corrosion rate of the core elements is linear. Gao Zhendong really didn't believe that using such good conditions and using theories that had been verified and widely used in the future would not produce a beautiful result.
Seeing Gao Zhendong's confident and free movements, everyone almost believed what he said before they verified it, mainly because he pretended to be too smooth.
This point of Gao Zhendong comes from the teachings of his previous mentor. The mentor’s original words are: “When you are doing defenses and reports, once you go on stage, don’t worry about the quality of your report or paper, because it has already been You can't change it. You have to show your momentum, the kind of momentum where you think you are right even when you are wrong. Make your report openly and confidently, and don't be timid and hesitant. This will give others a better impression of you. , the chance of passing is also higher.”
Thanks to his mentor, Gao Zhendong didn’t learn how to improve the quality of reports in his previous life, but he first learned how to write when making reports.
However, no matter how smooth he pretends to be, verification still needs to be verified.
Mr. Xiang took out the follow-up monitoring data. Although these data were not included in the report materials due to time issues, he still brought them as supplementary materials, thinking that they might be useful, so they were used.
(End of this chapter)