Chapter 2042
Tao Donglai frowned and said: "Wang Tom wants to use this as an excuse to start a war with the Qing army? What does he plan to do?"
Yan Chujie said: "Wang Tom's plan is to use the special operations group and the Navy's Northern Fleet as the main force to enter the Bohai Sea and attack the Qing army strongholds on the west coast of the Liaodong Peninsula. The main targets are the two acropolises of Gaizhou Guard and Fuzhou Guard. Through The military attack blocked Shenyang's channel for transporting supplies to the Liaodong front line. He also hoped to draw Ming Dynasty to send troops together in this operation, so that our troops would be well-known when entering the Bohai Sea and no longer have to worry about Ming Dynasty's attitude."
After hearing this, Tao Donglai slowly shook his head and said: "I don't think it's appropriate. Even if we defeat these two places, the current military strength in Liaodong is not enough to achieve long-term garrison. We have to recruit a large number of troops locally and expand the garrison." To increase the scale, we can only replenish the troops from the south, but that means there will be greater local military expenditures. Considering the current output of the Liaodong region, it will not be possible to obtain a larger territory. There is enough revenue to support the military expenditures required to maintain rule. This is actually a loss-making business for us.”
"What about attacking but not occupying? From a political point of view, if Ming Dynasty can be allowed to send troops to coordinate, maybe this is a good opportunity to show off its muscles to the Ming court." Seeing Tao Donglai's resolute attitude, Yan Chujie changed to another Persuasion from an angle.
Tao Donglai still shook his head and said: "Follow the previous practice and leave after fighting? But the Ming army may not be able to accept such a strategy. If they agree to send troops, they must be with the idea of regaining the lost territory. If they defeat the two acropolis After coming down, the Ming army may not be willing to withdraw honestly, and will most likely choose to station troops there. By then, the Ming army's stronghold will be on the choke point of the Liaodong Peninsula. Not only will it be a thorn in the side of the Qing army, it will also become a thorn in the side of the Qing army in the future. The stumbling block in front of us! When the Qing army wants to seize these two places, will we care or not?”
Regarding the situation on the Liaodong Peninsula and Haihan's local strategy, there are actually several different opinions among Haihan's senior officials. Not everyone supports a sustained military attack on the Qing Dynasty. Even Tao Donglai, who has always been supportive of the military's opinions, has reservations about whether he should continue to proactively carry out combat operations in Liaodong.
The military's position is of course that it hopes to arrange one or two major military operations in Liaodong every year. While honing the combat effectiveness of the troops, it can also consume the strength of the Qing army so that it cannot divide its troops to attack the Ming Dynasty, so as to achieve the goal of containing its military strength. Purpose. Of course, increasing the military's influence by supporting war with war, and gradually expanding the military as the war progresses, are also additional effects of such actions.
But every large-scale military operation means astronomical military expenditures and material consumption. Even for Haihan, who has strong war mobilization capabilities, launching a large-scale war in a distant overseas country is not easy. In addition to the impact that the war will have on the international situation, the Executive Committee must also consider very practical issues, such as the direct benefits that Haihan can obtain through the war. Money, land, property, population... various resources will be A calculated value used to measure whether it is worth going to war.
Among Haihan's many overseas ruling areas, Liaodong has actually been regarded as a "low-value area" by the executive committee. This is not entirely due to the lack of natural products in the local area, but because the comprehensive development costs and returns are not directly proportional. A large number of people need to be moved to the local area to achieve Haihan-style rapid development. But if a large population can be organized in the north, why bother moving to Liaodong where infrastructure is incomplete and war may break out at any time? Wouldn't it be better to move to a more peaceful ruling area in the south?
When the Haihan army crossed the sea from Shandong to attack Jinzhou, one of its main purposes was to contain the Qing army and give Ming a chance to breathe, and this effect has indeed been achieved. However, it is not necessary for Haihan to continue to increase troops in Liaodong to compete with the Qing army. Even if he wins, Haihan does not have enough troops and population in the local area to occupy more land. Economic gains directly from the war are also pitiful.
It is precisely based on this consideration that the Executive Committee's long-term strategy for Liaodong Jinzhou tends to be conservative. Most people believe that maintaining the current military confrontation situation is an ideal state. This can not only maintain a relatively stable social environment in Jinzhou, contribute to local infrastructure development and construction, but also save unnecessary military expenditures. It can also achieve the strategic purpose of continuing to contain the Qing army.
As for pulling Ming to send troops, taking this opportunity to show off his strength, etc., in Tao Dong's opinion, such a purpose is not necessary, and the expected benefits will not be much better. If not handled well, it may become his own. Looking for troublesome situations. In the eyes of the Ming Dynasty, there was not much difference between Haihan and the Qing Dynasty in nature. They were both enemies who used force to occupy the Ming Dynasty's territory. To put it bluntly, even if Haihan sent troops to destroy the entire Qing Dynasty, he would not necessarily win the respect and trust of the Ming Dynasty. On the contrary, he might be regarded as the biggest threat.
"I think Wang Tom's plan should be discussed later when the relevant investigation has more detailed results. Now I just want to know when the mastermind behind the planning and implementation of this series of things will be caught!" Tao Donglai didn't want to say anything anymore. I continue to debate with Yan Chujie on this topic. There are too many problems with this plan. Even if it is submitted by the military to the Executive Committee for discussion, it will be difficult to pass. There is no need to convince the other party at this time.
What really worries the executive committee is the shooting case, which has been under investigation for almost two months. Although investigations carried out in various places have made varying degrees of progress, the final answer has still not been solved, and the Executive Committee can hardly be said to be satisfied with the performance of the intelligence department.
Yan Chujie coughed dryly and said: "Actually, we have gradually narrowed down the scope of the suspect's activities through investigation. I think the truth will come out soon."
He Xi also added: "We have a lot of clues, but it takes time to conduct follow-up investigations overseas. Mr. Tao, this is not the era we came from. Skynet can be called everywhere, and you can be contacted with just a phone call. Overseas. It often takes many times more time and energy for our people to verify a piece of information, and considering that we may alert the snake and cannot take investigation actions in a big way, it is difficult to investigate the case any faster.”
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He Xi's complaint is also true. In fact, outside the Sanya base camp, the number of personnel in the Haihan Intelligence Department is very limited. An overseas administrative area with a staff of more than ten or twenty people is already a high-level area. Even In a place like Liaodong, which is classified as a war zone, the Ministry of Security and the Military Intelligence Bureau combined have less than forty people. These places cannot be like the investigation work that Zhang Qianzhi presided over in Hainan Island. A single order can mobilize hundreds of people to rush to a certain place for reinforcements, or blockade a certain place for large-scale investigation.
The shortcomings caused by the lack of professionals are obvious. Similar to gun cases that occur in various places, the range of information that intelligence personnel can obtain when conducting investigations is relatively narrow, making the investigation work very difficult.
When Gong Shiqi and Ji Yuanqing went to Yangzhou to investigate the salt merchants, neither the Military Intelligence Bureau nor the Ministry of Security had permanent personnel there, so many key information could not be obtained in advance, and the entire action plan seriously lacked detailed arrangements. This also caused them to be in danger locally and had to go through a bloody battle all night before escaping from Yangzhou.
When Manila sent investigators to Cebu, it lacked enough professionals and had to use a group of Hispanic and local indigenous intelligence agents who had just entered the intelligence system. Although the subsequent investigation progress seems to be pretty good, these gains seem to be due more to the luck of the intelligence agent Jose than to the excellence of their investigative skills. Even in Hainan Island, where the investigation is proceeding relatively smoothly, in order to investigate some of the clues obtained from the prisoners' confessions, they still need to rely on intelligence personnel stationed overseas for verification. The opponent obviously has a strong counter-reconnaissance awareness, and many clues that may reveal his whereabouts and identity have been cut off in advance. This also makes the intelligence department's investigation ideas encounter many difficulties.
Of course, as an official in charge of security intelligence affairs, He Xi definitely cannot give reasons such as "because the enemy is too cunning" at such a meeting. The reason can only be attributed to the fact that the investigation work is limited by objective conditions. This is barely a reason. Justifiable reasons.
He Xi then introduced the progress of the investigation work in various places. As of now, the local investigation work in Hainan Island has actually come to an end. All those who can be arrested have been arrested, and seventy-seven clues of the investigation have been found. It's almost eighty-eight. The current work being done at the headquarters of the Ministry of Security is to summarize, organize, and compare the clues investigated from various places to find out the timeline and general context of the contacts between the mastermind and all parties.
In both places in the north, the investigation work came to an end through fighting. Although some clues were obtained from this, subsequent verification was difficult because the intention had been exposed. However, the good thing is that the combat operations in these two places have basically achieved the effect of eliminating potential threats. In Yangzhou and Liaodong, a musketeer team that has not yet fully formed combat capabilities was destroyed. The process was much better than that of the Ministry of Security in Danzhou. The group that captured Xue Zheng was much more dangerous.
The place where valuable clues were actually obtained was in Manila, which was the last to enter this joint investigation operation. The fledgling intelligence agents relied on their invincible luck to obtain some very critical intelligence in Cebu - such as another batch of weapons and equipment that will be shipped from Cebu to somewhere overseas in the near future.
Although it is impossible to confirm where the weapons will be transported, the news sent back from Cebu indicates that the weapons will be transported by a cargo ship under the name of a Han merchant. This means that if Haihan can intercept this ship, not only can he confirm the route of smuggling weapons, but he is also likely to discover the real mastermind behind the scenes.
However, this is beyond the capabilities of the Ministry of Security, and the navy must be dispatched to complete this task. He Xi handed over the conversation to Yan Chujie, who explained the current arrangements made by the military.
Yan Chujie said: “After receiving the report from Manila, the Ministry of National Defense has notified the local navy to monitor the channel between Luzon and Mindoro, which is the main channel from Cebu north to the mainland coast. Once a suspicious ship is found passing through the sea area, the navy will take decisive action.”
Tao Donglai raised his hand and said: "I have two questions. One is the probability that the opponent will pass through this strait, and the other is the local geographical environment and whether the opponent's ship can be detected in time."
Yan Chujie said: "Of course there are many routes to the north. It is impossible for us to monitor all sea areas and can only choose the most likely route. It's hard to say how likely it is, but according to our understanding, there used to be between Cebu and Manila. All ships will choose this route with the closest sea conditions and the best conditions. As for the local environment, the narrowest part of the strait is less than ten nautical miles, and there is a Verde Island in the middle that divides the channel into two. It is enough to send a few more ships. Of course, this can only be used to monitor the waterway during the day. If the opponent chooses to pass through the strait at night, there is a possibility of missing the target. ”
"Then do we have other means to make up for this loophole as much as possible?" Tao Donglai asked.
Yan Chujie paused for a moment before replying: "Without having more information, we can only judge based on known intelligence that the destination of this batch of weapons should be one of Yangzhou and Liaodong. So the national defense The Ministry has also issued orders to the East China Sea Fleet and the Northern Fleet, requiring them to inspect suspected ships entering these two waters in the near future. But this is definitely more difficult than monitoring a strait, and I believe everyone can understand the reason."
Compared with straits with a width of less than ten nautical miles, it is extremely difficult to rely on ships to monitor the long mainland coastline in real time at sea. Therefore, Yan Chujie cannot give any guarantee to the executive committee. He can only say that this is a cover-up method, and the effect will probably depend on God's arrangements.
Although it sounds like the military has taken almost all feasible measures, in fact it still depends largely on luck. A sailboat with a displacement of less than 100 tons is a very small target on the vast sea, let alone Haihan. and failed to grasp its route, departure time and destination in advance. If the opponent's cargo ship successfully leaves the South China Sea, then Haihan's attempt to find the opponent will be like finding a needle in a haystack.
"It seems that what we have to compete with our opponents this time is not only patience, but also luck!" Tao Donglai's expression and tone were as calm as ever: "But I believe that no matter who is behind the trouble, they can give The troubles we create are only temporary. No matter how deeply these monsters are hidden, they will eventually show up!"
(End of chapter)