Chapter 2073
The Ministry of Security has been interrogating several people arrested in Danzhou for several months, using almost all means of coercion and inducement, but the information obtained from the criminal Xue Zheng and others is still extremely limited. It wasn't that Xue Zheng and others were so tough that the security department had nothing to do, but that these bounty killers knew very little about the situation, and they didn't know what their employer's real purpose was in arranging the attack. The contact between them and their employer had been actively cut off by the other party long ago, making it difficult for subsequent investigations to proceed.
The Ministry of Security has several inferences about the reasons behind the attempted attack, but there has always been a lack of clear evidence to support the argument. Although Li Zhen was grateful for the protective measures provided by Haihan, he was unwilling to talk about anything. suspect. After all, the people who will interact with Li Zhi's succession to the throne are either members of the royal family or high-ranking officials of the imperial court. Any statement he makes to Haihan may quickly trigger domestic political turmoil, so for him, he needs to take care of himself at the moment. His mouth is more important than tracing the mastermind behind the scenes.
In comparison, the military's investigation went much smoother, and several counterattacks and arrest operations overseas were also led by the military. Although He Xi is determined to continue to pursue the case about Li Xie, but due to limited conditions, it is difficult to achieve breakthrough progress in the short term.
He Xi coughed dryly and said: "As for the clues about North Korea, due to well-known reasons, Li Zhi is not very willing to provide us with more information, so it may be that the people behind the scenes who are planning this matter take the initiative to expose the clues before we can But now there are the most clues in the direction of Japan, and I think we should focus on investigating this direction first, and maybe we can also solve these cases that have not found answers before.”
"But neither the Ministry of Security nor the Military Intelligence Bureau has stationed intelligence personnel in Japan, how can this investigation be carried out?" Ning Qi immediately questioned He Xi's opinion: "If we send people to Japan now, how long will it take to achieve results? ”
Ning Qi's concerns were indeed true. Although there were unofficial trade exchanges between several overseas ports under Haihan's control and Japan, due to comprehensive considerations, the Haihan Intelligence Department did not invest manpower in the direction of Japan. After all, compared to Japan, whose trade scale is limited and far away from Haihan's homeland, it is a more correct choice to send a limited number of intelligence personnel in the direction of Ming Dynasty.
What Tao Donglai is worried about is a bigger problem: "If the Eighteen Shiba Yu Party colludes with the Hirado clan officials, then what we want to investigate may lead to a larger-scale armed conflict, or even War!”
For Haihan, who regards war as a daily routine, he is certainly not afraid of war with other countries, but the question is whether war can solve the problem and whether it can bring substantial benefits to Haihan.
Haihan's external expansion strategy at this stage is to control the coastline of the East Asian continent as much as possible, as well as some key waterways with strategic geographical locations, in order to achieve sea control. For this reason, the Haihan Society did not hesitate to launch wars to achieve its goals. In the past ten years, it has successfully established control over the long coastline from the Strait of Malacca in the south to the Liaodong Peninsula in the north, thus indirectly controlling the maritime trade in these areas.
As for areas far away from the mainland and not near important waterways, Haihan has never been focused on it. Even for a natural harbor with superior conditions like Manila Bay, if the Spaniards had not been determined to compete with Haihan, Haihan would have lost the sea. Han probably would not take the initiative to send troops across the entire South China Sea to attack the area.
Using war means to occupy these island areas far away from the mainland does not mean that the war is over. Haihan still has to send a large number of personnel to manage and guard it. The manpower and material resources invested after the war will still be very huge. In the short term, the long-term It would be less cost-effective to establish a colonial area near the coast of the mainland.
Japan is one of those places that Haihan is not very interested in. Hirado is 1,600 miles away from the nearest Dinghai Port in Zhoushan, and it is not on a major trade route. Japan has a mountainous terrain, and arable land and minerals are scarce resources, which are not very attractive to Haihan. Therefore, Haihan has always paid very limited attention to Japan. Even the intelligence agency believes that there is no way to It is necessary to serve as a key monitoring object.
Although the Dutch East India Company was very concerned about its trade relations with Japan, Haihan was not very interested in the limited trade volume that Japan currently opened to foreign merchants, and had no intention of actively asking Japan to expand the scale of trade. In other words, Japan is not attractive to Haihan now. If the case currently under investigation leads to a war, it will be difficult for Haihan to gain economic benefits by defeating the opponent.
Yan Chujie immediately understood what Tao Donglai meant: "You are worried that things will get worse and worse. In the end, we can only use war to solve the problem, but this is not the best result for us."< br>
Tao Donglai said: "That's it. If it involves war, then we must carefully consider the expected goals and the actual possible results, and find a solution with the highest cost performance."
"Mr. Tao, I'm afraid this matter will not be solved as easily as you hope." He Xi immediately expressed his opinion: "The remnants of Shibazhi can be sheltered in Japan, after all, it is due to interests. Whether it is military strength or economy The benefits they can bring to the Hirado Domain are definitely much greater than ours. If I were the head of the Matsuura clan, I might also choose this group of people as partners. I know you want to do so through peaceful means. The Matsuura family gave up their protection and support for this group of people, but I don’t think we can offer enough benefits to buy them off.”
Yan Chujie also expressed support for He Xi: "We still don't know the extent of Matsuura's participation in this series of events. In this case, trying to negotiate with them to solve the problem is actually exposing their shortcomings and letting the other party take control." Take the initiative. I think it is still necessary to express your attitude to the other party by exerting military pressure. The other party may not be able to listen to you if you say good things. Lao Tao, don't forget that this is a place that has begun to close itself off. Their people in power. If you don’t necessarily know the grievances between our country and Shibazhi, you may misjudge your own situation.”
Even Ning Qi, who has always opposed the use of war to resolve disputes, believes that the current situation is actually not optimistic: "The other side has mass-produced muskets, trained soldiers, and even people who have escaped the net and have fought against us before. , how can we easily choose to compromise with us? Although I do not advocate taking the initiative to go to war, we do have to make corresponding preparations first. If the other party realizes that our branches deployed in various places have been destroyed, they may take risks and take some more measures. Extreme means.”
"What do you think of the God of Wealth?" Tao Donglai was noncommittal to everyone's opinions and looked at Schneider, who had not expressed his opinion. As the helmsman of Haihan Finance, Schneider's opinions often represent whether military operations can obtain sufficient military budget support. Therefore, although it is the military that has the final say on whether to fight a war, Schneider's opinions also have an impact on the military's decision-making. extremely important meaning.
Schneider sat up straight and glanced at everyone present, with a hint of excitement in his tone: "Gentlemen, do you know about the black ship incident in history? I think Ning Qi should know about it, right?" Ning Qi just said He nodded but didn't respond, his mind quickly thinking about Schneider's purpose in mentioning the Black Ship incident.
In July 1853, Matthew Perry, commander of the U.S. East India Fleet, led four black warships to Edo and used force to threaten the Tokugawa Shogunate to open trade. At that time, although Masahiro Abe persuaded Perry to retreat on the pretext that he needed the emperor's approval before accepting the American request, Perry once again led the fleet to Edo at the beginning of the next year, and the number of warships increased to seven. This armed fleet swaggered deeply into Edo Bay and did not stop until it arrived near Yokohama. Under the nose of the shogunate, it made a tough stance of starting a war without opening a country.
In the end, the shogunate chose to compromise and signed the "Japan-US Goodwill Treaty" with the Americans in Yokohama, thus ending the more than two hundred years of isolation. After that, Britain, Russia, the Netherlands and other countries followed suit and made demands for trade with Japan and signed similar treaties with it. Affected by this, the shogunate system established by Tokugawa Ieyasu in the seventeenth century quickly collapsed. Movements to respect the king and resist the barbarians and overthrow the shogunate continued one after another. Finally, the Tokugawa shogunate was driven off the stage of history in 1868.
Schneider said: "The Americans used force to open Japan's door in the 19th century and forced Japan to open up trade, and gained many benefits from it. If we have a ready excuse for war, then maybe we can also follow the example of the Americans in history. This approach will bring an end to Japan’s isolation two hundred years in advance!”
When everyone heard it, it turned out that Schneider's ambition was the greatest. The goal of the Ministry of Security is to find out the truth, and the goal of the military is to eliminate the Eighteen Chi Yu Party, but Schneider wants to use this as an opportunity to persuade the military to send a large number of troops to Japan to prevent a situation that would have happened two centuries later. Advance to the present moment to make Haihan the biggest beneficiary.
Ning Qi shook his head and expressed his objection: "When the Black Ship Incident occurred, Japan's domestic situation and international environment were completely different from now. It was difficult to achieve the desired results in the same way. Although the Americans achieved their goals without losing any blood, But this does not mean that the threat of force we use now will have the same effect.”
When the Black Ship Incident occurred, the shogunate's rule in Japan was actually no longer strong enough. It was precisely because it was worried that defeat would trigger a series of vicious domestic reactions that the shogunate chose to bully the United States before starting a war. People compromise. The current leader of the Tokugawa shogunate, the third-generation shogun Tokugawa Iemitsu, is the leading figure in vigorously promoting the policy of seclusion. The purpose of this national policy is to strengthen the shogunate's domestic rule and reduce the influence from the outside world. . If other countries threatened the shogunate with force during this period, Ningqi did not think that those in power would choose to compromise because they were afraid of starting a war.
Tao Donglai asked: "In your opinion, under the premise that an armed conflict may break out, how should we deal with the current situation is the best solution?"
Ningqi thought for a while and then replied: "Control the scale and area of the war as much as possible. Even if there is a war, our war target will not be the Tokugawa Shogunate, but a local vassal state like the Hirado Domain. This can effectively reduce the shogunate's involvement in the conflict. possibility.”
"Hirado and Nagasaki are currently Japan's only two foreign trade ports. If we go to war with the Hirado clan, the shogunate will not stand idly by, right?" Yan Chujie asked.
Ningzaki explained: "Actually, Nagasaki is a port directly controlled by the shogunate. Only a small part of the benefits gained by the Hirado clan from international trade was given to the shogunate. Therefore, in the original history, the shogunate forcibly The purpose of moving the Dutch business office from Hirado to Nagasaki is to allow this part of the foreign trade income to go into the pockets of the shogunate. If Hirado is in chaos, the shogunate may be happy to watch it. ”
"It turns out that there is still such internal competition!" Yan Chujie sighed: "To put it this way, as long as the shogunate does not intervene, it will actually be much easier to start a war against Hirado."
As far as the military is concerned, no matter how much money the Hirado clan can make, it is still just a local vassal state. The number of troops it can use is only 18,000. As for the surface armed ships, it cannot be compared with Haihan. As for a trading port like Hirado Port, as long as its entry and exit channels are blocked, the local trade volume will inevitably plummet. At that time, no matter whether it is negotiation, war, or fighting and talking, Haihan will More chips are available.
Yan Chujie was previously worried that it would be difficult to control the scale of the war after it started. If this war, which was originally insignificant, turned into a large-scale war between the two countries, it would not mean much to Haihan even if he won. But if the Tokugawa shogunate can be kept out of the matter and not participate in the conflict between Kaihan and the Eighteen Shiba Party, then the difficulty of Kaihan Army's actions will be much lower.
Of course, the difficulty of an operation is only relative. Any overseas military operation can never be as simple as a meeting of senior officials of the Executive Committee. Especially for a combat method like the Haihan Army, which relies heavily on logistical supplies, the cost of preparing for a war is often several times that of traditional war methods. Even if you are sure of victory, you still need to carefully calculate the pros and cons before starting the war.
"Tom Wang is still in North Korea. I will send him a telegram later and ask him to arrange early reconnaissance preparations so that the navy in the north can prepare early." Yan Chujie is an action man. Since he has enough to take action against Hirado If possible, he planned to have the naval forces prepare in advance.
(End of chapter)