Chapter 563: It’s always fun to overtake (first update, please subscribe)
Actually, except that Li Yian is a capitalist.
Nanyang and Russia are highly similar, at least in terms of industry.
Most of Russia's industries were established in the 1930s, or were rebuilt after the war according to the standards of the 1930s. Russia's rapid economic growth in the 1950s was due to these factories and mines.
The same is true for Nanyang's industry, although it relies on German expert engineers to establish a modern industrial system. But they are essentially the technical standards of the 1930s.
Of course, the situation in European and American countries is not much better. In order to speed up reconstruction after the war, various countries also chose the mature industrial structure before the war and carried out repeated construction.
These outdated industrial structures are not only inefficient, but also consume a lot of energy and pollute the environment. Therefore, by the 1960s, they would all face the same problems - on the one hand, there were changes in the relationship between supply and demand. With the recovery of German industrial production capacity, market supply in various countries exceeded demand, and market competition became increasingly fierce. On the one hand, there is the backward industrial structure, which brings high production costs.
Originally, these problems were not obvious, but in the end, an oil crisis intensified all the problems. As a result, Western countries ushered in the nightmarish 1970s, which was actually a period of painful industrial transformation.
The problems they will face will also be faced by Nanyang in the future. It is for this reason that Li Yian needs to make arrangements in advance.
However, Paul’s explanation not only failed to make Zuo Xiaohan understand, but made him even more confused, he said.
"Is there a problem with this? According to our estimates, according to the current economic development speed, our demand for these products will only increase. Taking steel as an example, our steel production needs to reach at least 20 million tons to meet Basic demand, which is why we proposed 20 million tons. "
As the director of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, Zuo Xiaohan naturally knows what the basis for the "Second Fourth Plan" is, and it is based on the speed of economic development. Manufacturing, of course, also adds some "speed value", which is the speed value of accelerating development.
Li Yian added on the side.
“20 million tons is too little. In the long run, it may be 100 million tons!”
100 million tons of steel!
The United States has not reached this level yet.
However, in Li Yian's view, this is the inevitable future development. After all, Japan's steel production later exceeded 100 million tons, and it has maintained this production for a long time. According to the normal development rate, Nanyang's steel output will definitely reach or even exceed this figure.
Although he thought this number was too incredible, Zuo Xiaohan still said,
"In this case, are there any problems with the implementation of the plan?"
"No problem. But the core problem is that it is still "path dependence","
Paul said.
“Actually, I didn’t quite understand it at the beginning, but your explanation made me understand the truth. With the successful precedent of the “1st 4th Plan”, we only need to follow the “2nd 4th Plan” "Just make a bigger plan. In fact, it's It is the accumulation and expansion of production capacity. But this expansion of production capacity always has an end. When it reaches the critical point of the market, economic development will fall into some kind of stagnation, and this stagnation will often lead to economic crises. ”
Russia is a lesson. In the 1960s, the development of old industries centered on steel and machinery manufacturing reached a critical point. Like the West, Russia also faced the same problem. After all, no country's economy was as focused on heavy industry as the Soviet Union. So Russia also launched corresponding reforms, namely the "Kosygin Reforms", which according to Russian officials: improved planning and strengthened economic incentives. It is an attempt to carry out economic reform through the introduction of market regulation.
Well, it can be understood as Russia’s attempt at a market economy. The results of the reform are also very obvious. Activate the market, expand fiscal revenue, and restore vitality to the Russian economy. Of course, it was also attacked by domestic conservatives.
While the two sides were still arguing, the outbreak of the oil crisis pushed up world oil prices, bringing overwhelming wealth to Russia, an oil exporter.
All the original social and economic problems were resolved with the influx of oil and foreign exchange. As a result, Russia entered the so-called most glorious 1970s. During that period, Russia expanded in various ways around the world, and even thought that it was about to surpass the United States and become the world's most powerful country. At that time, they were proud.
Spurred by the oil crisis, factories in the West closed down one after another, and a large number of workers became unemployed. While the society was in a state of gloom, it also meant that the large-scale "chimney industry" developed since the end of the 18th century also disappeared. At the end. After the pain passed, new industries that were more efficient, more energy-saving and material-saving were born, and knowledge-intensive industries emerged as the times require. Without the injection of petrodollars, it took the Western economy more than ten years to gradually bottom out and slowly begin another wave of economic prosperity.
At the same time, Russia, which still followed the "smoke stack industry" model of the 1930s, saw its good days come to an end after the best decade, and eventually the empire collapsed.
This is also the reason why Li Yian directly intervened in the planning of the "Second Fourth Plan".
Zuo Xiaohan said puzzledly.
"Now...isn't it too far to say this? As you said, the demand for steel alone in the future will be 100 million tons, and we don't even have one-tenth of it now, right?" Worry!"
Li Yian said.
"What we have to consider is the long-term future, Xiaohan, as far as steel companies are concerned, is there any difference between Donghai Steel and Dongning Steel? In terms of technology?"
" This..."
Facing your Excellency's inquiry, Zuo Xiaohan said after thinking for a moment.
“Except that the main body of the equipment is domestically produced and some equipment is imported from Europe, the United States and other countries, there is not much difference in essence!”
“Yeah, that’s the problem!”
Li Yian stood up and said,
“From the perspective of plan implementation, in order to speed up and ensure the progress of the plan, we often tend to choose the mature industrial structure before the war, that is, the 1930s and 1940s. Although there were occasional technological innovations in the industrial structure at the beginning of the year, the overall industrial structure was far behind the times. It is already the 1950s, but we are using the industrial structure of the 1930s to carry out a new round of industry. Construction, such repeated construction, does not see any problems now, but what about the future? ”
Facing your Excellency's rhetorical question, Zuo Xiaohan said.
"This...but the new technology is not mature now. We can't stop eating because of choking. Isn't the most important thing now, development?"
Isn't the most important thing now, development? Haven't you always said that the most important thing is development?
"Yes, it is development, but it depends on how it develops and finds a balance between good and fast,"
Li Yian said while opening the draft plan.
“Compared with the construction through direct investment in industry in the First Fourth Plan, the core of the Second Fourth Plan is industrial policy-guided development.”
“Industrial policy-guided development?”
"Yes, through official funding, companies are encouraged to conduct innovative technological research and apply new technologies to industrial expansion, instead of duplicating construction within the old industrial structure, which may sacrifice some economic development speed. But in the long run, it is beneficial to economic development. Of course, we also need to formulate a series of industrial policies to promote industrial development. "
Manufacturing industry policies will guide and promote economic development and have success in another world. Based on the experience, Japan can be regarded as the country that likes to engage in industrial policy the most in the world. In the early 1950s, Japan put forward the goals of equipment modernization and export development, and specially established a "Heavy Machinery Equipment Technical Consulting Agency" to guide the export of complete sets of equipment. In the following ten years, Japan successively promulgated the ‘Machinery Industry Promotion Act’, the ‘Electronics Industry Promotion Act’, the ‘Light Machinery Export Promotion Act’, and the ‘Provisional Measures Act for the Promotion of Complete Equipment Exports’.
Every era will put forward ideas for industrial development within 10 years. In the 1980s, it was clearly stated that Japan's catch-up modernization has been completed, that it must replace trade with technology and intensify creative knowledge as its The development direction of industrial structure. In fact, it was also a decision made in the face of the end of the "chimney industry" model. Life was not easy in the 1970s either, with years of negative economic growth.
With these lessons learned, Li Yian certainly knows what to pursue.
“We are not just implementing a catch-up modernization national development strategy, we must also catch up, seize the opportunity of technological change, take advantage of the lead, seize the development of science and technology, and realize the ""
In fact, not to mention Russia, even European and American countries also have serious "path dependence", and they still follow the "path dependence". It is moving in the direction of "chimney industry", fully developing traditional heavy industrial sectors such as steel, machinery, and metals, while being insensitive to modern high technologies such as microelectronics, new materials, and bioengineering technologies. So everyone was in "labor pain" from the mid-to-late 1960s to the 1970s.
As long as the old industry disappears, there will be no way for new industries to arise. The West's ability to emerge from the pain is entirely a manifestation of the self-regulation of the market economy, which is the so-called "creative destruction."
However, in this process, Russia, which had a large amount of petrodollars injected into it, was immersed in the buying and selling mode, thus missing out on opportunities for development, and ultimately the technological gap with the United States widened further and further.
Because of his understanding of this period of history, Li Yian proposed to seize the development of science and technology, not to avoid the pain, but to... take advantage of the start and achieve overtaking in corners.
From the 1950s to the 1970s, this was a period of twenty years of development opportunities.
Watching closely behind the European and American buttocks and looking at the taillights to catch up... Is it cool to overtake directly?
(End of this chapter)