Chapter 1406 Sir, times have changed (first update, please subscribe)
Is this the future?
In Silicon Valley, Boris Marin looked curiously at this place that did not seem very conspicuous.
As a Russian exchange student, he has been here for almost three years, and now he is about to end his study abroad career here.
The major that Marin studied was electrical engineering. What Marin didn’t know was that because of the flapping of butterfly wings, his fate also changed. Originally, he was supposed to be sent as an exchange student. Study abroad at the University of Pennsylvania.
In fact, throughout the Cold War, tens of thousands of Soviet students entered various universities in the United States through American cultural exchange programs, and the vast majority of the students studied so-called "science and engineering."
This is the most amazing thing - during the Cold War, Soviet college students went to study in the United States. Not only were all the expenses paid for by the U.S. government, but they also studied the science and engineering subjects that the Soviet Union most desired.
Rather than the "liberal arts" as some people imagine, in fact, if you use your brain a little bit, you will know what the use of Soviet people who came to the United States to study majors such as American literature, law, and art when they returned to the Soviet Union ?
It is impossible for the Soviet Union to send its best young people to study subjects that they regard as "useless". They are more willing to let those students study science and engineering, and what is even more surprising...the United States does not refuse at all.
But according to those Soviet students studying abroad - they didn't learn much, because the real knowledge is in the laboratory and in the enterprise.
Learning in school is just a foundation!
“Everything we need is here!”
Marin pointed to the buildings on both sides of the road and said:
“Their textbooks are not ahead of us. The leading technologies are all developed by companies here.”
“Obviously, we cannot enter these companies.”
Sergey glanced around and said:
“We can’t even enter high-level laboratories, and all we learn is the knowledge in textbooks.”
This is exactly what we learned. The situation they face is also the situation faced by their compatriots in the United States.
The university has opened its doors to them, but it does not mean that they have truly come into contact with the core of technology.
Those Russian exchange students studying in universities can become smart physicists, but they don’t know the technical details that only engineers know-the temperature at which certain chemicals need to be heated, or the photolithography process. How long should the glue be exposed for? Every step of the chipmaking process involves specialized knowledge that is rarely shared outside a specific company. This type of expertise is often not written down.
Soviet intelligence officers were perhaps among the best in the business, but the semiconductor production process required more detail and knowledge than even the most capable intelligence officers could glean.
“Despite this, we still learned a lot of knowledge that we couldn’t learn in the Soviet Union,”
Marin’s words made Sergey nodded in agreement, and then asked.
“So, what are we doing here now?”
“Buy!”
Marin said bluntly.
“We are here to purchase the integrated circuits we need.”
“Purchasing integrated circuits?”
Sergey looked at Marin with some confusion and asked.
“Is this our job too?”
"Of course!"
Marin nodded, and then said:
"There are many entrepreneurs here who need a variety of microprocessors. We can serve as their Buy those microprocessors here and take them home."
"Send them to the country. That means we have to imitate these process processors, right?”
“Yes, that’s right, because we are far behind them in microprocessors, and now we have to divide them several times, So find ways to reach their level and surpass them ”
Marin's explanation made Sergey frown, and then he said:
"But it is impossible for such imitations to surpass them. Boris, you have to know that what we buy The microprocessors they received were all developed at least a year or even two years ago, which means that even the most advanced microprocessors we buy on the market are actually lagging behind."
“So what? We used to be able to start from Western countries import their machines and then copy those machines, eventually producing machines that are no worse than theirs. Since we could do it in the past, we can do the same with microprocessors. We must believe in ourselves." Marin. Looking at Sergey saying in a serious tone:
"We have to believe that we can do it, and we will definitely be able to surpass them. After all, we have our advantages."
"Advantage! Maybe!"
Sergey said bluntly.
"But you overlooked one point - iteration! Microprocessors are different from any industry we have been exposed to in the past. In the age of machinery, it took several years, even ten years, to develop a machine, and it It can be used for more than ten years without falling behind, but they are two completely different concepts in microprocessors.
Have you forgotten? "Lee's Law"? The number of transistors that can be accommodated on an integrated circuit will double approximately every 18 to 24 months, and the performance will also double. This means that it will be completed every two years or so. Iterate!
If we just imitate, we will always be chasing after them! ”
Faced with Sergey's rhetorical question, Marin was silent for a while, and then said helplessly:
"I know, but so what? We always have to imitate first, and then we can surpass!" Okay, let’s buy the NS63 microprocessor first. Its performance is even better than the Athlon microprocessor. This is the best microprocessor currently. As long as we copy it as soon as possible, we can catch up quickly. Their level..."
< br>...
"...A large number of microelectronics factories have been built in Zelenograd City. In their laboratories, the best scientists are copying our microprocessors! Therefore, judging from the existing information, they should be setting up to surpass us in the field of integrated circuits through imitation strategies!”
Sitting in front of your Excellency, Jia Wentao reported respectfully:
“So, I think it is necessary to cut off their access to integrated circuits. This can not only show our attitude to them, issue warnings, and warn them of their actions in Kenya, but also prevent the outflow of technology and prevent them from copying our technology products. . ”
What do Russians value more?
It must be the chips from Silicon Valley. Compared with Kenya, the chips from Silicon Valley are more important to the Russians. Their military, civilian and other fields are inseparable from the chips here. Therefore, in Jia Wentao’s view, This is the best way to fight back against the Russians!
"They want to achieve transcendence through imitation? That is simply wishful thinking! It is a daydream!"
Putting the report on the table, Li Yian sneered:
"Moscow's thinking is still stuck in the era of the mechanical industry half a century ago. Unfortunately, they don't know that times have changed. Imitation will not only not change their backwardness, but will even make them fall further and further behind. !”
“More and more backward?”
Although Jia Wentao was a little surprised, But he didn't speak. After all, your Excellency has said it - the Russians are still stuck half a century ago!
"Integrated circuits are different from any other industry in human history. Its iteration speed is too fast, too fast So that others can’t copy it!”
Thinking of the rapid development of chip performance, Li Yian said:
"The performance of integrated circuits will be iterated every two years, but in fact, the most advanced microprocessors were already lagging behind when they first came on the market. There are already more advanced products in the laboratory, which The launch only solves production problems such as yield rate.
Faced with such a level of upgrading, it is too late for others to copy it. They can polish off the surface of the microprocessor and use a microscope to magnify it. Then they copied it one to one, but so what? By the time they completed the imitation in the laboratory and handed it over to the factory for manufacturing, a new product had already been launched here, and their product was already lagging behind before it was produced... ”
In another world, the Soviets did the same thing. They purchased chips through the civilian market and used spies to buy them from Silicon Valley. They even directly stole the chips and then shipped them back to the country for copying.
Even if the Soviets managed to copy a certain chip design, semiconductor technology was evolving rapidly due to Moore's Law.
Even if the Soviets succeeded in copying a design, acquiring materials and machinery, and copying the production process, it would take a long time. And American companies like Texas Instruments and Fairchild release new designs with more transistors every year.
After semiconductor technology began to take off, the size and energy consumption of transistors were shrinking, and the computing power that a square centimeter of silicon could carry almost doubled every two years. Copying outdated designs was a completely hopeless strategy.
The effect of the Soviet Union's exhausting pursuit and replication is like an ox cart chasing a car. Let alone catching up, in the end you can’t even see the taillights.
“Moreover, their copying strategy is fundamentally flawed. We are currently learning and researching mass production of chips, and in the semiconductor industry, the key to mass production is reliability, this is what Soviet scientists Unaware gaps.
The entire semiconductor industry in the Soviet Union operated like a defense contractor—secret, top-down, military system-oriented, supplying orders according to orders, with little room for creativity. And against the army Over-reliance on business customers has also prevented them from ushering in the booming consumer market like the United States, Europe and us.
In fact, the civilian semiconductor market has provided funds for the professionalization of the semiconductor supply chain. They have specialized companies in various fields from ultra-pure silicon wafers to lithography machines. But the Soviet Union has almost no consumer market and has no ability to reinvest. This is the most fundamental gap and the reason for their failure." br>
Of course, the reasons for the failure were various. Soviet semiconductor facilities, for example, often used less precise machines and less pure materials, resulting in extremely unreliable production processes.
Also, the Soviet Union lacked international supply chains. American companies in Silicon Valley cooperate with technology companies in other Western countries to form an efficient global division of labor. Japan dominates the production of memory chips, the United States produces microprocessors, Dutch company ASML provides photolithography machines, and workers in Southeast Asia complete most of the final assembly work.
Companies in the United States, Japan and Europe each compete for a share in this division of labor, but they can also share a huge civilian market to share costs.
The superposition of problems such as these eventually led to the Soviet Union's overall backwardness in the field of semiconductors.
When Li Yian fell into memories, Jia Wentao said:
"Your Excellency, can it be understood that it was the copying strategy that caused the Soviet Union to lag behind us in transistor technology for several years from the beginning, and there was no hope of catching up?
In other words... from the beginning They took the wrong path."
(End of Chapter)