Chapter 1407: Real friends are those who are stuck (second update, please subscribe)
From the beginning, they took a wrong path.
“Not only were they wrong from the beginning, but they were absolutely wrong.”
Nodding, Li Yian said:
“In fact, the Soviet Union has the world The top theoretical physicists in the world, including semiconductors. Now integrated circuits are only in their infancy. If they can calm down and devote their best scientists to research and development instead of copying, then it will not be impossible for them to catch up. Hope. But..."
When he said "but", Li Yian's tone contained a hint of helplessness, but more of a pity.
Why is there such a pity? The reason is that now our side is actually copying the technological path of the United States in another world.
From a technical perspective, you can see the end at a glance. Because before he traveled through time, there was a saying that Moore's Law was dead.
This is because the silicon process has reached its end. Transistors cannot be infinitely small. Quantum effects will occur when matter is as small as 5 nanometers or less.
So, under this situation, Li Yian hopes that the Russians can open up a new path. After all, during the Cold War era, Russia did open up some new paths when trying to overtake in corners.
For example, ternary computers and the like, those seemingly alternative paths may not be a possibility in the future.
But who would have thought that now Russia has chosen the simplest "copying strategy" with almost no possibility of overtaking in corners?
Although overtaking on curves does exist, the probability of overturning is greater. Moreover, this is a path that has long been proven to be doomed to failure.
This is simply... extremely stupid!
“They have chosen a path that is destined to fail. The more they catch up, the more they fall behind. This is almost unchangeable. In fact...”
Speaking of the situation in the Soviet Union, Li Yian said:
“For Russia, the best option is to settle down and conduct independent research. Now in terms of overall technology, they are probably only slightly behind the West.< br>
If they can calm down and make breakthroughs in fields such as materials science, they may make progress, and they may even open up a new path.”
If Russia can make breakthroughs in silicon manufacturing. It would be a good thing for the world to open up a new path.
And this is what Li Yian longs for. After all, the end of the silicon process can be seen at a glance.
"Open a new path?"
Although he is a layman in technology, Jia Wentao still heard what you meant.
"Your Excellency, do you mean to let the Russians try and make mistakes? To obtain new breakthroughs through trial and error?"
"Haha, some attempts always need someone to do it. "
Li Yian said directly.
"The technical route we adopted is only one of them, but can the Russians also open up another route? Only in this way can there be comparison in the future, and then we can choose the best one."
Just like Russia in another world Wasn’t the complete abandonment of tube miniaturization in the late 1960s due to trial and error?
Since they can try and make mistakes on the miniaturization of electron tubes, they can definitely try again on the transistor path.
Instead of copying without any new ideas, in the end American engineers even engraved a Russian taunt directly on the chip, "When you care enough to steal the best things, you will see this sentence".
As long as the product is strong and the words are strong, the sarcasm is so direct.
"Okay, let's not talk about this for now..."
After thinking about it, Li Yian said:
"Now, just force them back on track!"
" Forced back on track?”
Jia Wentao said:
"Your Excellency, do you mean to cut off their hands reaching out to Silicon Valley?"
"Yes, that is to cut off their hands, and from now on, impose a comprehensive embargo on them on the chip. , increasing the difficulty and cost for them to obtain chips!"
Li Yian thought for a moment and said.
"And" "If you get stuck... maybe you can get a windfall!"
What is Li Yian’s so-called “windfall”?
As an intelligence officer, Jia Wentao didn't understand, but as a physicist, Yuan Jialiu knew it very well.
"In other words, the next step is to force the Russians to conduct independent research through the embargo, right?"
The two chatted while playing chess:
< br>“Almost!”
Li Yian nodded and said:
"In terms of research system, although the Soviet scientific research system is rigid, they also have their advantages. They can concentrate their efforts on certain research. For example, they decide to To get a chip, just get one Semiconductor City is preparing to overwhelm us in terms of momentum.”
It not only built a Semiconductor City, but also built a group of professional agents-even if the United States implemented a technical blockade against the Soviet Union, the KGB spies still used it. The Western world is seeped like a sieve.
The KGB and Soviet scientists working together will definitely narrow the technological gap between the Soviet Union and the West quickly. On the surface, all the equipment that should be available can be built. Soviet engineers also confidently believed that it was only a matter of time before their country would catch up with the United States in the semiconductor industry.
But it’s just a thought. After all, the copy path is wrong!
"As long as they are willing, they will invest a lot of resources and conduct new research. Now they have made some progress by imitating our chips, but the path is always wrong. After all, integrated circuit iteration is here, remember Is it Lee's Law? Chip performance doubles every two years.
Even if Soviet scientists try their best, this replication model is doomed to chip technology. To be one generation behind, as chip performance continues to increase, the gap represented by "one generation behind" will still get wider and wider.
The gap now is two years, and in ten years it will be five or twenty years. It will be ten years later..."
This is exactly why the Soviet Union later realized that the "copying strategy" failed - copying American chips not only failed to reduce the distance, but even increased it.
In the 1980s, the CIA conducted a study on Soviet microprocessors and compared the chips produced by the Soviet Union with those of Intel and Motorola. They were surprised to find that - it cannot be said that they are almost the same, because they are exactly the same. The replica was such that the CIA staff couldn't tell it apart. Technically speaking, the Soviet Union was five years behind the United States.
By the time the Soviet Union collapsed, its technology lagged behind the United States for ten years!
After its disintegration, even the CIA said in astonishment - in fact, there was no need to go to great lengths to impose an embargo on the Soviet Union. The more they copied it, the more they fell behind.
The bigger crisis is that many of the so-called "successfully copied" products were just copied in the laboratory. The Soviet Union did not obtain the corresponding production technology. When it was promoted on a large scale, it still encountered problems. A series of problems such as low yield rate and substandard quality make the products expensive and difficult to use.
Developers and producers cannot obtain positive or negative feedback from the market, so naturally they do not know the direction of improvement and lack the motivation to improve. Therefore, the Soviet Union's achievements through reverse engineering were never translated into forward research.
“Zhiyuan, you are helping them correct their mistakes!”
Yuan Jialiu made a move and said:
“From this perspective, it is better to export chips to them. This will stifle their independent research capabilities!”
“This is indeed true. It is helpful to the Soviet Union’s independent research, but it is for a longer-term goal..."
Li Yian said while playing chess:
"How to say it? ? The Soviet Union’s research system determines that they generally have a mentality of “overtaking in corners”. If they fall behind us in the silicon process, they will find another way and try to make breakthroughs in other fields such as germanium and gallium - in progress When developing this kind of technology, they had a very simple mentality. If this thing could be developed and overtaken in a corner, wouldn't all the chips that are showing off in the Western world become scraps?
Therefore, their scientists will choose "curved paths", and some of these paths may be helpful to our research. After all, this vision would have led the Soviet Union to invest a lot of money and manpower in this research and development. "
In fact, in the early 1980s, the Soviet Union also realized the failure of the "copying strategy", so it also tried to "overtake around the corner" through innovation in materials science. But unfortunately, at that time, the Soviet Union There is no money and no time for trial and error.
The Soviet Union came to an end within a few years, and to a certain extent, the development of human science and technology was missing a branch. When Moore's Law came to an end in the 21st century, some research institutions were re-established in the Soviet Union. research direction, but the investment of one research institute and the investment of several scientists Trial and error, it is comparable to the investment of a country!
This is also the fundamental reason why, in the 21st century, no substantial breakthrough has been made in this field - because no company has the ability. Mobilize the best chemists, materials scientists, and electronics scientists to work together Conduct "research" in a certain field.
But the Soviet Union could. In fact, before the collapse of the Soviet Union, they did make certain progress in the field of materials. Even scholars from Tokyo University had a period in the early 21st century. I have been working in this direction for several years.
However, this is not the case, it is just the personal behavior of a few scholars. The situation cannot be fundamentally reversed.
Holding the chess piece in his hand, Yuan Jialiu said:
"This...if we do this, will the risk be too great? What if they really succeed? That way, it would be really bad. Overtaking at a corner!"
This is a new threat, even greater than the threat of their "copying". After all, "copying" will always follow behind and eat dust. The kind that can never keep up.
Who can guarantee "overtaking on a curve"?
"Well..."
After a moment of silence, Li Yian said:
"If they can really come up with a new path, it will be a blessing to all mankind, but even if they Even if you do it, you won’t be able to surpass us! You may even go bankrupt faster!”
(End of this chapter)