Chapter 466: Real estate “recovery” and reminder
After visiting Carrefour Supermarket and a theater of Changxing Film Company in Wanwan, Yang Wendong returned to Hong Kong.
Nowadays, Wanwan still has great restrictions on foreign investment in the service industry. Therefore, even if Changxing Group finds a way to get around it, it will not be able to achieve a large scale in the short term. At present, it can only be said to be a trial investment to understand the market. , plus training employees. When the market opens up in the future, I will further increase investment.
February has quickly arrived, and Hong Kong's real estate market has gradually shown an upward trend. House prices have gradually stopped falling, and many real estate developers have begun to try to acquire projects.
Zheng Zhijie also quickly reported the situation to Yang Wendong and asked: "Yang Sheng, do you think this is a sign of real estate recovery?"
"If we look at the data, it is possible." Yang Wendong flipped through the information in front of him and said with a smile: "Last year, housing prices fell by more than half, and in some places they even fell by nearly 2/3. The bubble at the previous peak has also fallen. Almost there.
In addition to real estate, Hong Kong's other economies are developing very well, especially industry and trade, which have increased by more than 15% year-on-year. In addition, the population has also increased a lot. These are very good data for real estate. ”
Small real estate companies look at the commercial value of a region, while large real estate companies look at the overall economic data and future development trends of a country or a city, etc.
Hong Kong's real estate is also deeply tied to the economy. This is the foundation for real estate to rise. Many major real estate developers predict the real estate crisis or recovery by looking at these data: population, average economy, industrial or service industry output, average wages, banks Interest and so on.
After Zheng Zhijie heard this, he asked happily: "So Yang Sheng, can we participate in real estate development again?"
Although Changxing Real Estate is not small in scale, it did not operate much last year and suffered heavy losses. Of course, this loss is compared to other internal subsidiaries. Compared with other real estate companies, Changxing Real Estate is already very good.
Yang Wendong shook his head and said: "It's not possible yet. I still need to wait and see for a while. You should just stand still and complete the two projects in Singapore. Don't worry about the others."
In fact, if you don't know the future, then the current data is really suitable to return to the real estate industry. Historically, Hong Kong's real estate industry also began to recover in early 1966. Until the middle of 1966, it increased by an average of about 10%. It is a sign of economic recovery and everyone is confident about the future.
It’s just that some things cannot be predicted economically. The most serious impact on real estate will always be ZZ or related threats. Once this situation occurs, housing prices will plummet directly.
Therefore, he would naturally not let Changxing Real Estate Company get involved at this point in time, and would rather keep the manpower and funds idle.
"Okay." Zheng Zhijie agreed.
In the Changxing Group, Yang Wendong's words are imperial edicts. Even if his subordinates have some questions, they will usually follow them, not only because he is the boss, but also because many previous results have shown that Yang Wendong is still correct.
Yang Wendong asked again: "Is the construction in Singapore going well?"
"Everything went well." Zheng Zhijie replied.
Yang Wendong nodded and said: "Okay, that's it. The real estate company is still the same as last year. I will notify you when the time is right."
"Okay Yang Sheng," Zheng Zhijie agreed.
Yang Wendong added: "In addition, you should observe Henderson Land and Li Jiacheng's Cheung Kong Holdings in the past six months to see if they have any plans to enter the market."
Although these people all succeeded in becoming one of the four major families in the 1980s, there should be some strong and weak in terms of ability. The real estate crisis before and after is also the most testing time. Yang Wendong also wants to know how they have operated in the past few years. How to successfully avoid huge risks and take the opportunity to hoard land on a large scale.
Whether it depends on strength or partly on luck will also determine who Yang Wendong will support in the future. After all, his resources are limited, and it is impossible to support so many top families in the future at the same time. Even HSBC will only support one at the same time. Just two people.
"Understood." Zheng Zhijie replied.
After Zheng Zhijie left, Yang Wendong took another look at the various buildings around him, thought about it seriously, and then rang the bell to call his assistant A Ying: "A Ying, make an appointment with He Shanheng from Hang Seng Bank and tell me that I will invite you recently. He eats.”
Aying agreed and said: "Okay, I will let you know when the time is determined."
Two days later, in a private room in the Four Seasons Hotel, several exquisite Huaiyang dishes were served one by one.
"He Sheng, please, this Huaiyang cuisine is the most suitable for entertaining guests." Yang Wendong said with a smile.
Among the many cuisines in the mainland, Huaiyang cuisine is the most suitable for state banquets, because it does not require spitting out bones, which is the biggest advantage. In fact, in terms of taste, all cuisines are not bad.
He Shanheng smiled and said: "Okay, thank you Yang Sheng."
"You're welcome." Yang Wendong also started to use his chopsticks. After the two exchanged greetings, Yang Wendong asked: "He Sheng, how has the operation of Hang Seng been in the past year?" "The current development is not bad." He Shanheng replied: "However, I followed Yang Sheng's suggestion and gradually gave up further expansion in Hong Kong, and instead focused on Singapore and some Southeast Asian countries."
"This idea is a good one, and there are limits to its further development in Hong Kong." Yang Wendong nodded and said: "There is also HSBC, a semi-central bank in the country, so there is no need to compete too much with them."
Although the Hong Kong market is very strong, it is still the era of British Hong Kong. HSBC controls special rights such as money printing and foreign exchange. At the same time, it is a commercial bank and has a good relationship with the Hong Kong government. Competing with such an enterprise is simply not worth the gain. Even if you can compete with HSBC fiercely due to your incredible ability, if you don't play with the rules of the business world and politics with you, it will be a waste of time.
Rather than asking for trouble, it is better to find a way out of Hong Kong. It will be a vast market. Even if there is competition from the outside, as long as it is not very big in one place, other local banking giants will generally not care
"Yes, I was thinking about surpassing HSBC before, but I really lost my zz thinking and almost caused Hang Seng to go bankrupt." He Shanheng said with emotion.
Yang Wendong said with a smile: "It's not too late to understand now. From now on, we can just focus on the overseas market. In fact, even HSBC will probably try to enter the overseas market in the future, especially now that communication technology is getting stronger and stronger, and the previous branch communication problems , are becoming more and more perfect now.”
Many bank frauds are actually committed by exploiting loopholes in the non-sharing of data between different branches; however, after the emergence of the Internet, these frauds are basically relatively rare.
"I hope so. It's also very difficult to do business overseas." He Shanheng said: "Everything has to start again. Even in Chinese areas, there are OCBC Bank or other banks locally. We want to attract deposits, which is very difficult. .”
Yang Wendong smiled and said: "There is nothing I can do about it, but if my business covers Hang Seng branches in the future, I can cooperate a little bit, but except for Singapore, I probably won't invest on a large scale elsewhere."
Singapore is a gathering place for Chinese people, and it was well-known in previous lives. I know a little about it, so I dare to invest heavily. Forget about other Southeast Asian countries, at most, we can build some supermarkets, cinemas, etc., or a few properties, etc.
"That's enough." He Shanheng nodded and asked: "Yang Sheng, don't you know why you asked me out?"
Yang Wendong said: "He Sheng, Hong Kong real estate has been recovering recently. You should know it, right?"
"Yes, I know." He Shanheng said: "Several real estate companies have started internal discussions with us, hoping that we will lend money. Does Yang Sheng also want to raise funds from me? But you are the major shareholder, and it is no longer allowed by law. .”
Since the Liao Chong Hing Bank incident, the Hong Kong government has prohibited banks from lending to their directors and major shareholders. Although the Hong Kong government has not paid much attention to this matter after two years, the laws and regulations are still there. If it is illegal, it is illegal. If Hong Kong If the government really pursues the case, the banks and shareholder companies will not be able to live with it.
Yang Wendong shook his head and said: "No, I want to tell you that I am still cautious about the real estate market for the time being. I respect your choice as to what you do here, but I also hope you will be more cautious."
Although he is the major shareholder of Hang Seng Bank, Yang Wendong basically does not interfere with He Shanheng's management. This is his strength, and he often needs to cooperate with HSBC, Standard Chartered, Citigroup and even East Asia to maximize the use of their funds. Develop yourself, but if you are too involved in Hang Seng’s affairs, it will inevitably give other banks ideas.
But it doesn’t matter, it’s necessary, to remind you. Historically, Hang Seng belonged to HSBC at this time. How did it get through 1966 and 1967? Yang Wendong doesn’t know. Now Hang Seng is still a Chinese-owned bank, and He Shanheng still has the final say. He couldn't guarantee whether He Shanheng would make a mistake.
If it were other investments, even if the real estate company of Lee Shau Kee and Li Ka-shing had problems and went bankrupt in 1967, Yang Wendong would never care. But Hang Seng is a bank. If it really lends too much now, problems will arise in 1967 and it will be run on. , then Yang Wendong is in a very embarrassing position. To save or not to save?
So it’s better to give it a reminder now to avoid having to clean up the mess later, although it’s unlikely.
After hearing this, He Shanheng was surprised and said: "Yang Sheng is still not optimistic about the real estate market? Could it be that it is just a rebound from the decline period?"
"It's possible." Yang Wendong smiled and said: "I have no evidence, but I just feel that the real estate market has not fully recovered."
This kind of thing is all based on guesswork and cannot be confirmed with data. Buffett and Soros do not have this ability. They rely on experience and have succeeded many times, but sometimes they fail.
"So what Yang Sheng means is that he doesn't want me to continue borrowing money from the real estate market?" He Shanheng asked.
Yang Wendong nodded and said: "Yes, try not to participate in the residential or for-sale market, focus on industry, or you can lend money to companies that invest in self-owned office buildings, but don't invest too much."
When the real estate crisis hit in 1967, his first target was large office buildings, whether in Central or anywhere. Moreover, in this era, the locations of high-rise office buildings worthy of being built were not bad.
If Hang Seng Bank can cooperate with itself in lending to some of these companies, then if the other party is not operating well and is forced to sell the property, after taking over, it can guarantee Hang Seng's risks to a certain extent. However, it still cannot be too much, because the housing prices in 1967 were knee-high. Even if your ankle is cut off, even if the property is auctioned, the bank may not be able to recover all the accounts.
He Shanheng nodded and said: "Okay, I'll go back and think about it. Since Yang Sheng is not optimistic about the real estate market, I will definitely be more cautious."
Not to mention that the other party is a shareholder of Hang Seng, even with Yang Wendong's current achievements in Hong Kong, no one dares to ignore his views.
Yang Wendong said: "Okay, at the next board meeting, I hope to get the result of He Sheng's decision."
PS: Asking for a monthly ticket
(End of chapter)