Chapter 1402 Problem Study
Hu Changfeng looked a little heavy, because China is also at a critical juncture of "sub-micron process technology development" similar to Taiwan. How to prevent what happened in Taiwan? Happening in China, this is a serious issue.
From the experience introduced by Kwon Wu-hyun, huge investment is the primary condition for DRAM chip manufacturing. However, China and Taiwan also lack independent core technologies, so they also need to rely on purchasing technology licenses and process equipment. To achieve production capacity.
If this is the case, the difficulty is not insurmountable. First of all, Project 809 has introduced sub-micron wafer fabs. Although it has delayed more than a year, the danger is just at this point. superior.
The financial problem is not a big problem. The wafer fab is already there, and the only thing left is the money to purchase the technology license, which saves half of it.
What's more, the country's situation is different from other countries in the world. Great men have said that our superiority is to concentrate our efforts on big things. For a company, even Huahong and Clover can be replaced by billions of dollars. Overwhelmed, but with the support and support of the state, gritting one's teeth is not a big problem.
What's more, Jinhai already has the production capacity of 64MDRAM chips. Although the process is high, the technology is rough, and the cost is not low, the first step of "does it have it?" has been solved. The basic technology The power is already there.
But according to Moore's Law, component deployment can double in eighteen months. In theory, Jinhai's DRAM will no longer be advanced in another year.
In other words, if the production capacity is insufficient, the sales volume is insufficient, and the money earned cannot be used to update the wafer production process and new chip manufacturing process within 18 to 24 months, then even if it temporarily achieves technological leadership, it will eventually be In a year or two, it will be unable to keep up with the international advanced level due to lack of stamina, and in the end it will be all in vain.
The reality is so grim. Why Lenovo does not dare to take the path of research and development is not because it is based on comprehensive considerations based on its own ability, strength, and most importantly, courage.
Hu Changfeng could really describe his gratitude to Zhou Zhi at this moment. Huahong currently has the ability to attract hundreds of millions of dollars a month, which is the prerequisite for him to have enough time to consider these things.
What if we set up one or two production lines? What is most advanced now will become backward in two years. No matter how much money is spent, the industry will still collapse in the end. How can I explain to the country? Are I considered a national sinner?
The current situation is at least much better than when Project 809 was founded...
Zhou Zhi is also thinking, but from a different perspective than Hu Changfeng.
At present, those countries that have the advantage of being the first to move have not yet implemented all kinds of shameless strangleholds and sanctions on the latecomers, but if they don’t take advantage of the opportunity in the next few years, they will bite the bullet of those first movers. As for technology, once the gap between one's own production capabilities and that of others becomes an industrial generation gap, then the only choice is to let others control it.
If you want to pursue it then, the price you have to pay will be much higher than today.
If you think about it further, even if you can't catch up with others, when Moore's Law develops to a certain extent, it will produce another effect - the slowdown effect.
The so-called Moore's Law slowdown effect is that after the chip manufacturing process develops to a certain level, due to the approach to the process limit, phenomena such as charge drift between devices can no longer be avoided, causing the process to continue to shrink. It has become extremely difficult and development is approaching a bottleneck.
This phenomenon will be very obvious on chips with a relatively simple structure such as DRAM.
Zhou Zhi’s plan is to grit their teeth and chase them all the way. Even if they are latecomers, as long as they are not pulled too far behind and persist until the slowdown period of Moore’s Law for DRAM chips arrives, they will win. Because by that time, the advantages of top-level DRAM compared with secondary DRAM are no longer obvious, and the proportion of secondary chips in various application environments around the world will expand to the point where profit margins cannot be eaten up by top-level chips. situation.
When the profit earned by sub-grade chips is even higher than that of top-grade chips, this industry will be completely over.
With a huge market base of more than one billion people, you will win even if you don’t overtake, not to mention that there is no chance of overtaking at all?
The biggest risk, the one that needs to be avoided the most, is still the situation I experienced in my last life, which was being thrown away from generational differences and then being manipulated by others.
Is there such an opportunity in this life?
While thinking about it, Kwon Wu-hyun changed his tone and explained Samsung's investment in China.
There is no doubt that Samsung’s most important investment in China now is the Jinhai 64M DRAM production line.
However, due to distrust of domestic wafer production lines, Samsung’s first batch of DRAM still uses its own domestic wafers. This is also Samsung’s quality requirement for its own products, making Samsung’s DRAM, regardless of In terms of component size, single-chip data capacity, response speed, temperature control, energy saving and other aspects of performance, it is ahead of other brands in the world.
Therefore, Samsung Group hopes that Huahong and Clover can authorize Hong'an Digital to design a new generation of WinClover players. Even Samsung Electronics' R&D team can participate in joint design. It is believed that the new DRAM player will be used The machine can be smaller in size and larger in capacity, making it more popular in the market.
Zhou Zhi knew it was time for him to speak, raised his hand and said: "Dear President Quan, although your group's current DRAM has excellent performance, the price is also high. After weighing the pros and cons, we We have just adopted the Toshiba brand which has slightly lower performance but obvious price advantage.”
"If we use Samsung's DRAM, it would not be a wise move before the cost-effectiveness is established."
Seeing that Quan Wuxuan wanted to speak, Zhou Zhi quickly raised his hand, and then continued: "Of course, we also We have been actively seeking opportunities to cooperate with excellent component suppliers like Samsung. A real inspection and analysis revealed that Jinhai's DRAM factory can actually reduce costs."
Quan Wuxuan couldn't help but smile: "Mr. Zhou, Ms. Zhang has already reported this plan to the company before. After research by our expert team, we found that using wafers produced in your country can meet the needs in terms of process parameters. , but in many other performance aspects, it is difficult to meet our basic requirements. The result is that the complete frequency of the product drops sharply. This additional loss is something we Samsung cannot afford.”
“This conclusion. , I believe Miss Zhang has conveyed it to you, there is no need for us to continue the discussion now, right?”
"Dear President Quan." Zhou Zhi continued to insist: "Although we, Clover, are a scratch company, we have a corporate culture called 'how to ask three questions'. Every time we receive a question or complaint, Clover will The grass will ask why three times, step by step, until the real root of the problem is found.”
"After receiving your reply, we asked the first reason, that is why our domestic wafers cannot meet the raw material needs of your Jinhai factory?"
(End of this chapter)
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