Chapter 192 Changes in the Global Chip Industry
There will always be Chinese people in the center of the world's semiconductor industry, but it has never been China's turn to be the center of the world's semiconductor industry.
This is what a certain semiconductor tycoon said at a private gathering. It is also reality, but this is the reality of the past.
China's backwardness in the semiconductor industry is caused by many factors. During the booming semiconductor development period in the 1980s and 1990s, China lacked experience in planning and developing high-tech industries, and international capital was very important in cultivating China's semiconductor industry. There is also little interest from the industry. In contrast, international capital obviously prefers Neon, 4V and Wanwan.
TSMC’s overtime culture is no worse than that of these major domestic Internet companies. They went to Americen’s Arizona to build a factory, which caused American’s local engineers to complain and post on social media. He said that TSMC asked him to sleep in the company and he has not had a holiday for a month.
Liu Deyin, the chairman of TSMC, is not used to this. He directly said that TSMC has only one culture. If you don't want to be on duty, don't come.
The labor groups in these areas within the Confucian cultural circle have a high natural tolerance and acceptance of volume culture, which gives them an indispensable advantage in technology-intensive industries such as semiconductors.
Hua was unable to become the center in the past because of technological gaps and historical evolution.
Now this situation has been fundamentally reversed.
Since the birth of topological semi-metal, although China has not yet become the center of the world's semiconductors in terms of production capacity, it has gradually become the center of the world in terms of advanced technology.
Five years ago, it would have been impossible for Tominaga Junji, who worked at the Neon Industrial Economic Research Institute, to give up his iron job and come to work in China.
Although Tominaga has offended Neon Semiconductor, this offense is unlikely to cause Tominaga to lose his iron job.
And he would make such a choice precisely because of the endless potential that China has shown in topological semi-metals.
In the new Shiyuan Technology, Chen Yuanguang plays more of a consultant role, while Liang Mengsong, who has fully proven his ability in the topological semi-metal chip battle, was appointed as chairman and CEO.
Tominaga is the co-CEO sent by Neon Fang.
After receiving advice from Chen Yuanguang, Fuyong continued to communicate with Liang Mengsong.
“Mr. Liang, we think we should focus on the transformation of Nikon’s ArF lithography machine. Although Nikon has already broken through the process to 5nm internally, it has also made breakthroughs in the field of EUV lithography machines.< br>
But after all, this technology has not been proven by the market, and its yield rate has not been verified by large-scale tape-out.
We should adopt a step-by-step approach to increase the output and process of the 7nm process. Then we’ll do EUV exploration,” Tominaga said.
Due to different light sources, there are many types of lithography machines. The limit range of ArF is 7nm, and the limit range of EUV can currently reach 3nm.
However, only ASML can achieve 3nm, and Nikon’s 5nm is still a laboratory product.
“I understand what you mean, this is indeed the safest way.
Because we use new materials, the 7nm process is enough for us, it means With the equivalent power consumption and computing power of 1nm silicon-based chips, we will definitely have no rivals in the current semiconductor market if we launch this type of equipment." Liang Mengsong first confirmed Tominaga's idea.
Then he continued: "Now we have a monopoly advantage relying on topological semi-metal. Only we can produce 1nm equivalent chips, which means that we can do it according to our cost and the desired profit. Carry out pricing.
I don’t know how long this time window can be, maybe three years, maybe five years, it could be longer or shorter
Because according to the news I got, under the leadership of Amerikan, they are uniting all scientific research institutions that can be combined to try to achieve a breakthrough in topological semimetals. We don’t have much time.
Only by giving full play to our advantages in this rare window of time, can we be able to respond when they can also make topological semimetals. "
Liang Mengsong finally concluded: "In the current time window, both mobile phone manufacturers and chip manufacturers will be willing to pay for our technology.
Even if Nikon’s EUV yield rate is only 70%, it’s not a big problem.
Tominaga-kun, you may not know much about the mobile phone industry. Do you know how much Qualcomm tax these mobile phone manufacturers in China have to pay? ”
Tominaga shook his head: "I don't know."
Liang Mengsong continued: "The Qualcomm tax is 120 to 150 US dollars, and they don't use Qualcomm chips, then the Qualcomm tax will be reduced to less than 50 US dollars.
For them, the benefits from self-research of chips can help us cover our costs.”
Qualcomm tax is unavoidable, it’s just the difference between paying more and paying less, because you pay more. As long as it involves communications business, you have to pay patent fees to Qualcomm, even if you don't use Qualcomm's chips.
Tominaga said: "What if the yield rate is not even 70%?"
"Then increase the yield rate and we can bear part of the losses."
Shiyuan is developing photolithography machines for topological semi-metals, and domestic chip manufacturers in China are allocating part of their production capacity To transform these production lines into topological semi-metals.
Huawei’s Extraordinary Master, which was previously limited to 20,000 units per day, has ramped up its production capacity after the fourth quarter, and the number of 80,000 units per day has been enough to meet the market supply.
Other mobile phone manufacturers have launched self-developed chip projects, and the fastest among them is OPPO. After all, they have the foundation of Zheku before, and they are expected to be able to tape-out in the first quarter of next year.
Xiaomi ranks second. Although Pengpai is difficult to produce, it has experience in making SoC.
Domestic manufacturers have launched topological semi-metal production capacity one after another, and the most important ones are Qualcomm and Apple.
Once Chinese mobile phone manufacturers no longer use Qualcomm chips, their revenue will drop by at least two-thirds.
Qualcomm head An Meng said directly in an interview with Columbia TV's "60minutes" program:
"You are right, China's chip technology breakthrough will have a huge impact on Qualcomm." Serious consequences are unacceptable to us. We must prevent such a nightmare from happening."
However, when the host asked him: "What should Qualcomm do to prevent such a future?"
An Meng did not shy away from it: "I think Amerikan should unite with its allies, and mobile phones equipped with China's self-developed chips should not be allowed to be imported into these countries."
An Meng's words are clear. It means that we can no longer win in business competition, so we have to use external tactics.
“Oh, I think this would be a good idea, but what if our allies don’t accept it? It doesn’t look like our European allies are going to listen to us on this matter.” Host. people asked.
The host does not think there is anything wrong with An Meng's words. The Chinese Internet has always admired Amerikan's business spirit, but within them it is full of the law of the jungle where the jungle prevails.
When I have an advantage, free competition, market economy, open door, and private property protection are my creeds, and they are my Holy Grail to defeat my opponents. But when I have no advantage, these are bullshit, mine. Will is the rule.
From executives to the media, Amerikan’s behavior makes this clear.
“This is a matter for Washington. They must find a way. Once all Chinese mobile phones are equipped with 1nm domestically produced chips, they will be sold to the world. This will be fatal to America’s economy. The impact is not limited to Qualcomm.
Can you imagine how Apple can compete with Chinese mobile phones with better performance, richer functions and cheaper prices?
Can you imagine how Intel and Nvidia would compete with cheaper, better-performing Chinese chips?
If left unchecked, the best of Silicon Valley will be destroyed in the foreseeable future. ”
Since the listing of Huawei’s Extraordinary Master, Qualcomm’s stock price has fallen by half.
Originally affected by the positive impact of smart cars, smart cars use a large number of Qualcomm chips, and Qualcomm occupies a leading position in this market With its dominant position and the recovery of the mobile phone market, Qualcomm has come out of the trough, its stock price has fully doubled, and its market value has reached 200 billion US dollars.
The emergence of Extraordinary Master has given Qualcomm a boost. In a fatal blow, the stock price that took a year to double fell back. The capital market even believed that the stock price was overvalued.
Take the 2023 financial report as an example, which contributed the most revenue to Qualcomm. The region is China, which has contributed a total of 22 billion US dollars in revenue. Once Chinese companies no longer purchase Qualcomm chips, their revenue will plummet to one-third of the original value.
Comments from the Wall Street Journal directly pointed out this matter:
“When Qualcomm’s stock price returned to $100, I know many people said that Wall Street overestimated the impact of China’s chip technology breakthrough on Qualcomm. , Qualcomm can still occupy a place in the Chinese market
I know the people who say this are because they are Qualcomm investors, and they cannot accept the reality that their stocks have been cut in half in just one month. , However, the reality is that if Washington does not intervene, Qualcomm will lose the entire Chinese market faster than expected.
There is no need to question China’s production capacity and China’s will to develop the chip industry. We need to question whether China has finally seized such a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Will they give up? Are people with such thoughts too underestimated the will of a country that can become the world's second largest economy in just thirty years? .
The most pessimistic future is that Qualcomm will not only lose the Chinese market, they may lose the global market.
Chinese mobile phone manufacturers have begun to develop their own chips, using self-developed chips to drive Samsung out of the global market. Only Apple and Chinese domestic brands are left in the global market share. Qualcomm chips will have no room for survival.
Once this becomes a reality, Qualcomm will not be able to support a market value of US$100 billion. ”
This hearing held inside Capitol Hill was different from the last time. Not only the CEOs of Intel and Texas Instruments were invited, but also the CEOs of semiconductor technology giants were invited.
Before Former Intel CEO Pat, who participated in the hearing and vowed that it was impossible for the Chinese to conquer topological semi-metal technology in a short time, was not qualified to participate in this hearing.
Providing wrong intelligence for the federal strategic decision-making. This resulted in a major misjudgment and a prefix was added to his title of CEO
But he is still on Intel's board of directors, just not CEO.
In the conference room on Capitol Hill, the tall floor-to-ceiling windows can clearly see Washington’s landmark building, the Washington Monument.
In the conference room, the classical solid wood decoration and the chandeliers with complicated patterns are full of history, but no one is paying attention to these at the moment.
Many people came, and people from all walks of life gathered together. China’s breakthroughs in semiconductors were not only unacceptable to Washington, but also uncomfortable for these semiconductor companies.
Because everyone’s business will be affected.
The director of the Federal Semiconductor Industry Committee opened the meeting by saying:
"Gentlemen, you are all elites in the federal semiconductor industry. Our strategy in semiconductors has made a major mistake.
China is in After achieving breakthroughs in basic materials, we took the lead in reaching 1nm in advanced processes. This is also the first time that the Federation has been surpassed in semiconductor technology.
We need your constructive opinions.”
Room-temperature superconductivity has made the federation nervous, but there are currently no signs of large-scale application of room-temperature superconductivity, and its scientific significance is greater than its industrial significance.
Topological semi-metals are different, which will have a fatal impact on the federal technology industry. After the advantages of technology are broken, the authority in the financial field may no longer be able to control it.
TSMC Chairman Liu Deyin is wearing a dark suit, a delicate tie, and his hair is meticulously combed. As an outsider, he takes this hearing very seriously.
If Washington cannot be persuaded to take measures, TSMC will face internal and external troubles, and it is really not far from death.
He was sitting on the conference table, with some TSMC executives behind him, and they were all listening quietly.
Qin Yongpei heard that the host of the meeting said that you are the elites of the Federation, and he couldn't help but cursed in his heart, we are not, we came to the Federation out of desperation.
"We are currently uniting all the forces that can be combined to promote the research of topological semimetals.
China is the first to achieve a breakthrough, which is a good thing for us in a sense."
Liu Deyin After he finished speaking, some federal members at the conference table began to whisper among themselves. Everyone did not understand that what he said was a good thing.
Liu Deyin did not panic: "Before the official application of topological semimetals, the academic community has always had different opinions about future semiconductor materials.
Now, Chinese companies have helped us After choosing the right route, we just need to develop along the right route
I think with the joint efforts of the world's advanced semiconductor forces, it won't take long for us to catch up.
But before catching up, we need to have sufficient measures in place to prevent the federal semiconductor industry from losing its current market share.
We need to have a stable revenue and profit to support us in investing resources in research and development.
I think it is most appropriate to impose restrictions on China’s semiconductor industry.
This kind of restriction needs to be sufficiently targeted. It cannot be like the past, where Chinese products can be exported to the whole world after being transferred to Mexico or Annan.
In addition, certain financial support is needed for semiconductor companies to help them increase their investment in research and development. ”
Everyone understood what Liu Deyin meant by the last sentence.
Two years ago, the federal government used high subsidies to attract TSMC to build factories in the federal government, and TSMC invested US$40 billion.< br>
The total amount of high subsidies is more than 50 billion US dollars, Intel takes 32%, Micron takes 21%, Texas Instruments takes 14%, and TSMC takes less than 7%? >This is pure humiliation, let alone a biological son, not even an adopted son.
And this 7% subsidy will have to be paid back later. Liu Deyin also expressed his dissatisfaction with this matter calmly.
(End of this chapter)