Chapter 193 The seemingly reasonable suggestion is actually a trap
The plan proposed by Liu Deyin is simple, but very effective.
“The semiconductor industry is a very typical technology, labor and enterprise-intensive industry. China currently has a slight advantage in technology, even though they have many shortcomings, such as semiconductor equipment, semiconductor materials, chip production processes, Engineer team, etc.
They cannot compare with the world's leading level in these aspects.
But they have the biggest advantage of topological semi-metal, which is enough to make their products more popular. The consumer side offsets all disadvantages
For the Federation, if China's chips are allowed to expand production capacity and occupy the market, China will quickly catch up in its shortcomings. By that time, even if we conquer topological semi-metal technology, we will not be able to limit the development of China's semiconductor industry. . ”
I have to say that Liang Mengsong once worked at TSMC, and he and Liu Deyin have similar ideas.
What Liu Deyin thought was that it would be over if China caught up in other aspects, and Liang Mengsong thought. What’s more, it will be over if TSMC catches up in the topological semi-metal field. The two sides have different positions, but the key points they think about are exactly the same.
“So for the federation, we need to restrict the production of Chinese chips. scale, limiting their market and slowing down their ability to catch up.
This is the most urgent matter at the moment. ”
In Liu Deyin's view, it is too late to hold this hearing.
Although the Federal Congress has always been very fast on issues related to China, the federal market restrictions alone are far from enough. China's chips themselves do not expect to be sold to the federation.
More important are the markets outside the Federation, especially Europe.
As a developed country, Europe is a market that cannot be ignored.
It can also be seen from the data that last year, Europe was the only region where the share of chip sales increased globally. Chip sales in the Americas fell by 5% and Neon fell by 3%.
Europe rose 4%.
Now Europe has made it clear that it is not going to end. Anyway, it does not have much semiconductor industry. ASML, which was finally cultivated, is being coveted by Amerikan and is trying every means to poach it.
The congressmen here are all old guys. They are no strangers to everything that happened back then. They may not have been congressmen at that time, but they were also working in Washington. It is possible that they drafted the agreement at that time.
They considered Neon's behavior a betrayal.
“Which companies are cooperating with China?” A certain congressman could not hide the anger in his voice. This was a performance and his true inner emotion.
In their view, Neon is the object of whatever they want. The suicide drama is already excessive enough, and cooperation with Chinese companies in the semiconductor field is even more excessive.
As for Germany, to be honest, for the Federation, Germany has a higher degree of autonomy than Neon. This is not because Germany is more powerful, but because Germany has a killing move that they are afraid of.
The Federation is not worried that Neon will really come together with China. This is unrealistic, but they are worried that Germany, Mao and France will really come together. Even if it is just deep economic integration, this is enough. Make them afraid.
“There are too many neon companies such as Nikon, Canon, Fuji, and Hitachi, and German companies such as Zeiss, Siemens, Volkswagen, etc. In the field of new chips, these companies are either already cooperating with China or preparing to do so. China cooperates," Liu Deyin said.
The CEOs of Intel and Texas Instruments looked at him sideways because they did not expect Liu Deyin to be so cruel.
Everyone has heard more or less about the cooperation between these companies and China, but because there are no federal restrictions, they don't want to mention it.
In the process of globalization of the chip industry, Koryo and 4v have obtained most of the advanced production capacity, the Federation has obtained the upstream patent authorization, and Neon has obtained the raw material production capacity. Everyone performs their own duties, and Europe is just The losers in this process.
ASML is just a beautiful accident.
“Sorry, I would like to mention that the federation has never blocked the cooperation between these companies and China.
The federation only does not allow the export of lithography machines with processes below 14nm to China. , or specifically restrict ASML from providing services to China
But there have never been restrictions in other areas. The previous restrictions were only on semiconductor devices.
There have always been rumors that the federal government will restrict the export of advanced process raw materials to China, but this has always been just a rumor. Therefore, Neon has been exporting raw materials including photoresist to China.
As for the joint research and development of topological semi-metal chips, there has never been any regulation that imposes restrictions. "The president of Intel said.
The federation has been unable to reach an agreement because the technology giants led by Intel, Nvidia and Apple really want to reach an agreement with China and hope to join forces with China in the field of topological semi-metals Research and development.
Lee Jae-yong, the head of Samsung Electronics, nodded and said: "Yes, we are also in contact with China, hoping to cooperate on topological semi-metal, a new material.
This is a purely commercial behavior. As a company spanning multiple fields, it is impossible for us to ignore such an advantageous material. If there are federal restrictions, we will definitely comply with them. ”
In their view, Liu Deyin is too bad. The blue ocean market of topological semi-metal chips will definitely be a market of hundreds of billions of dollars in the future, and even hundreds of billions.< br>
A large number of segmented leaders will be born in the upstream and downstream, and there will be a lot of opportunities. TSMC's own ecological niche is occupied by SMIC, and it wants to prevent all companies from crowding into this ecological niche.
Liu Deyin’s logic is that if I can’t get in, then everyone shouldn’t go. Let’s form an alliance, play by ourselves, and let the federation give this alliance protection.
However, from the perspective of other semiconductor companies, it is most direct and effective to participate in China's coattails. Once they can use China's topological semi-metal materials, it can bring a huge stimulating effect to the market.
“I think Mark’s statement is inappropriate. The restrictions on China’s semiconductor industry are based on the premise that they have no advantages. Now that they have achieved a breakthrough, we will restrict them and then divide them in the global market. Two camps, giving up the other camp to China?
This is too extreme," said Frank, Intel's chairman.
Mark is Liu Deyin’s English name.
The local Anglo-Saxons feel that 4v is too extreme on the Chinese issue, which is a bit deliberate.
"It is true that we can, like EUV lithography, take the lead from Oak Ridge National Laboratory and unite giants in the semiconductor field to form a joint R&D alliance.
The question is when will this be done? EUV lithography It took ten years from project establishment to formal production.
The topological semi-metal process will not be simpler than EUV. If it takes longer than ten years, do we have to wait ten years?
The Chinese people’s process has already exceeded 1nm in performance. Where will they be by then?
Who here dares to bet? Who dares to give our Mr. Chinese Light in Yanjing another ten years? "
Frank feels that Liu Deyin's opinion sounds valid, but is completely unfeasible in practice.
"I just said that under ideal circumstances, China occupies about half of the market, and we occupy half. market.
However, China has never minded sharing technology with its allies. What if they share topological semimetal-related technologies with Europe?
When we are about to succeed in research and development, will they package these technologies and trade them with Europe?
We will only be left with the local market. We have invested huge amounts of money, and all we will get is the federal local market. Who will be responsible for this situation at that time?
Mark or everyone here? "Frank is not polite.
"What we need to do now is to incorporate China into the chip system and regard them as one of the semiconductor raw material manufacturers, no different from Neon.
Neon produces photoresist, chemical polishing materials, packaging materials, copper, etc. Huaguo produces topological semi-metallic films that have the same function as silicon wafers.
Even if their thin films are more expensive than silicon wafers, no matter how expensive the premium is, it should be cheaper than giving half of the market share to China, right? ”
After listening to Frank's opinion, the congressmen present all began to nod their heads, feeling that Liu Deyin's opinion was like sending someone's head to China.
"Mr. Yeri, your suggestions are very good. I only have one question, and that is how to persuade China to cooperate?
What should I do if they are unwilling to cooperate?" A certain congressman asked.
Frank said: "There are many ways to let China cooperate.
I believe there are still many weapons in the federal arsenal that can be used. I believe everyone here is in this regard. Elite.
And if China does not accept cooperation, then we can make them lose the entire market on the grounds of monopoly.
We need to play with them within the rules of the game instead of running outside the rules of the game. Outside the rules of the game, we also need to spend more effort and consume more credits to convince our allies.
This is not a good thing. "Frank is sincere.
Twenty years ago, Frank's proposal would have been approved without any doubt. Everyone knows the benefits of cooperation.
From a rational point of view, Frank's proposal is very Reasonable and very feasible.
Cooperating with the Federation in the field of topological semi-metals will benefit China in the short term, but will be detrimental in the long term.
But now is 2024, an era of confrontation, and congressmen have lost their minds, or dare not show their rational side on China issues.
(End of this chapter)