Chapter 194 All companies want to make peace except TSMC
The fact they cannot say is that if they continue to play under the original system, the federation will be destroyed, and the consequences of the hollowing out of the manufacturing industry will be terrible enough now. If we continue to divide labor with China like this, the Federation will face the trend of hollowing out high-end technology within twenty years.
Without manufacturing and high-end technology, it is impossible for the Federation to continue to maintain its position in finance and public opinion.
The current overseas version of Douyin can reduce the control of public opinion by a large amount by relying on the advantages of the algorithm. If China hollows out high-end technology, the federation will be reduced to this in the future. The same status as Da Mao.
It is more likely that it is not as good as Da Mao, because Da Mao is geographically located there. He has straddled the Eurasian continent, which is much better than the federation on the edge of the world island.
Therefore, the Federation cannot accept this reality.
Many geopolitical masters have been born in the history of the Federation, from Brzezinski to Kissinger to Huntington. No one knows how to solve the current dilemma.
The federal congressmen don’t even know.
“Dear gentlemen, I have never said that if we cooperate with China, we will not advance our own topological semi-metal technology.
Cooperating with China is just helplessness under the current situation. This move does not mean that our own internal research and development will stop
And the more we understand about topological semi-metal materials, the more parameters we have, and the deeper our cooperation, the better we can reverse engineer this technology.
Instead of defining it based on a few words from engineers who have participated in the project, as is the case now.
This is an unreasonable approach. There should be a healthy competition between us and China, at least in the field of semiconductors. The measures taken by Washington in the past have fully proved that we cannot restrict China.
Then the direction should be changed now. You should look for a new direction, instead of running wildly in the wrong direction like now, knowing full well that there is a dead end ahead, but you still have to hit it. "Frank said everything from the bottom of his heart.
"Frank, you can't let us compromise with China just because Intel's interests are harmed.
The method you proposed also has a lot of problems. If you can't cooperate with China, your motivation to develop new materials is 100, but once you can cooperate with China, your motivation will not even be 30. "The congressman said.
Frank raised his eyebrows: "Your views are entirely based on your own assumptions.
Even if what you say is true, we will continue to take action, just like to this day, Intel will give part of its orders to Nikon in order to avoid being kidnapped by ASML.
Intel has always used US dollars to ensure supply chain redundancy, and our supply chain will always have Plan B.
Even if the federation allows us to cooperate with China, we will invest resources in the topological semi-metal project. ”
Frank gave an example, "I think in the past six years, companies in the federal government and even in developed countries have understood one thing, that is, we cannot be kidnapped by one party.
Our supply chain needs to fully consider Redundancy requires multiple sources.
Apple is handing over more and more mobile phone assembly to Asan, and Apple’s industrial chain is shifting.
TSMC is moving its production lines to Neon. With the federal transfer, Samsung is also reducing China’s share.
This is no problem. We are also trying our best to cooperate with the federal strategy.
Similarly, because of this strategy, Intel's market in China continues to shrink. China is undergoing comprehensive de-federalization from the government to state-owned enterprises.
Whether it is Intel's processor or Microsoft's operating system, China is looking for domestic alternatives.
While China is losing foreign investment, we are also losing the Chinese market.
The balance has been broken. The federal technology products will have no advantages or even disadvantages in the face of topological semi-metals. This will cause the market for China's technology products to not only be limited to China. They will be able to promote their products. To the whole world.
Just like what China did with its smartphones in the past, sell their technology products around the world.
Taking smartphones as an example, I believe you are familiar with Huawei's smartphones equipped with 1nm chips, which have better performance than Apple.
From the perspective of computing power, it can be equipped with some large local AI models. Huawei has also stated that it will release large AI models to the latest Hongmeng OS as soon as possible.
It will also become the first AI phone in the true sense. It is also better than Apple in terms of heat dissipation and power consumption. If it sells at the same price as Apple and uses large AI models to circumvent the restrictions of Google components, Apple's overseas market will not be completely lost, but at least it will be seriously affected, right?
Then the Federation loses the Chinese market, and Chinese enterprises gain the Chinese market. They not only gain the Chinese market, but also the markets of other countries around the world.
If before, I would think this was a reasonable loss, but now the balance has been broken, gentlemen, do you understand?
Just like we have to import China's perovskite battery technology to keep Tesla competitive in the global market, we now have to import China's topological semi-metal products to make our technology products more competitive in the global market. Stay competitive. ”
Before Frank came to attend this special hearing, he made a lot of preparations to try to get the lawmakers to change their minds.
Liu Deyin saw that the situation was not good, because from silicon-based to topological semi-metal, This is equivalent to completely changing the track. Almost all the patents accumulated by TSMC in the past will be invalidated.
TSMC has already won in the advanced process. In the 3nm field, Intel cannot catch up, and Samsung's yield rate is not as good as that of Samsung. TSMC.
Once you change the track, you have to start again.
Moreover, chip foundry is only one part of their many businesses for Samsung and Intel, and it can even be said that it is not the most important part.
Samsung Electronics’ mobile phone business is the most important. If they do not cooperate with China, they will visibly lose the global market, which is unacceptable to them.
For Intel, chip foundry is even less important, because they have already lost, and their own 3nm chips can be found by TSMC.
So they can compromise with China, cooperate with China, and start over means that everyone is back on the same starting line and starting the race, which is a good thing.
For TSMC, chip foundry is all they have, and their original advantages are gone. Now they have moved their advanced manufacturing processes to the federal government, which is really going to kill them.
"I think compromise with China is a bubble that sounds beautiful." Liu Deyin said.
Before he could finish speaking, Frank interrupted directly: "Mark, of course you don't want to cooperate with China. For you, TSMC's interests are greater than the interests of the Federation."
Liu Deyin immediately turned dark: "Frank, you are slandering me."
The host of the hearing stood up and said: "Both of you, please do not make personal attacks, let alone question your respective positions."
In addition to representatives from semiconductor companies, there were also representatives from some leading federal financial institutions, such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock, who all sent people.
Su Dewei, CEO of Goldman Sachs, interjected: "All congressmen are experts in the field of geopolitics.
I don't want to talk about whether cooperation with China will affect the geopolitical balance because I lack expertise in this matter. degree. I hope to talk about this issue from a financial perspective. What I am sure of is that once we cooperate with China, it will have a huge stimulating effect on the US stock market, and there is no need for the Federal Reserve to use monetary policy to stimulate the stock market. < br>
The benefits of this incident alone are enough to get the stock market back on track.
Just like after March 2020, the US stock market has experienced a beautiful long sun. The same line.
The most important thing in the capital market is the story. Today, the market is tired of telling the story of AI. Although everyone is saying that AI will change the world, its change in the world has not yet come.
Text-based artificial intelligence is amazing enough, but it also produces aesthetic fatigue. In the face of China's technological breakthroughs, it is not enough to generate sufficient interest.
China's semiconductor industry has a better story and better expectations than the federal artificial intelligence industry.
So the Chinese stock market is rising and Nasdaq is falling.
And if we cooperate with China and our technology companies can also use topological semi-metal technology, our story will be much more imaginative.
Just like after Tesla's Cybertruck announced that it was equipped with perovskite battery technology, their market value increased by more than 100 billion U.S. dollars even if they have not yet sold a Cybertruck equipped with perovskite battery technology.
Intel can launch 1nm chips, Apple mobile phones can launch 1nm chips, Nvidia can launch graphics cards with 1nm process, and AI computing power has been greatly improved.
Including AI, there are better stories to tell.
Originally it took until 2030 for us to advance the process to 1nm, but now we have done it, which means that we have reached the original level in five years.
What’s more important is that the problem that everyone was originally worried about, after reaching 1nm, this is the limit of the process, and it no longer exists now.
1nm is because China's technology is not enough, so it is 1nm. It can actually be smaller.
What a great improvement this will bring to the global semiconductor industry, AI industry, and consumer electronics. How much room for imagination is this?
In these fields, the Federation has a large number of high-quality enterprises and advantages. If we do not cooperate with China, it means that we will give up all these imagination spaces to China in the future.
And when we cooperate with China, it all belongs to us.
Members of Congress, think about your stocks. Once we cooperate with China, your losses will be quickly wiped out and you will achieve substantial profits. ”
Goldman Sachs can do anything for profit, and there is no lower limit. Their bottom line can always be lower than you estimate.
Maybe this is not a problem for Goldman Sachs, but a problem for all financial institutions.
Because CITIC in China does no better than Goldman Sachs in the process of sponsoring listed companies, and CITIC is still a state-owned enterprise.
After the hearing, Liu Deyin felt very cold, because every one of the business representatives who participated wanted to make peace with Hua Guo.
In his view, this kind of cooperation is peacemaking.
Once the federation agrees, this means that these companies will continue to cooperate with China, and the speed of topological semi-metals replacing silicon will once again leap forward.
As for Hua not agreeing, they have never thought about this possibility.
Because in their view, although China has gained some advantages in technological breakthroughs, this is not enough to change its international division of labor. China is still a producer country, and the Federation is still a consumer country.
The Federation can not follow the rules of the game, but China cannot.
Standing at the door of the Parliament Building, Liu Deyin felt like he heard a bell ringing.
"Old Qin, did you hear any sound?"
Qin Yongpei asked doubtfully: "Are you referring to the human voice?"
Liu Deyin shook his head: "No, maybe I heard it wrong. "
He felt deeply uneasy. This would not be the death knell for TSMC.
After the federal hearing, although Washington has not yet given a final conclusion, major technology giants have begun to increase investment in China.
Technology giants such as Intel and Nvidia, which have state-owned branches in China, have increased their investment, expanded their manpower, and plan to do something big.
“We hope to obtain part of the production capacity of topological semi-metal chips.” Intel’s business people have already begun to take action to try to lock in SMIC’s future production capacity.
Intel has always cooperated with SMIC, and some of the foundry orders for mid- to low-end chips are handed over to SMIC.
Mainly for two purposes, SMIC foundry is cheaper, and they do not want to support TSMC.
TSMC is Intel’s direct competitor in advanced manufacturing processes.
There is no other way to find TSMC as an OEM. Intel's chip manufacturing team is really not strong enough.
“Can you cooperate with us?” SMIC’s business manager also felt strange, “Doesn’t the federation not allow federal companies to cooperate with Chinese companies on topological semi-metal chips?”
"I don't know. Maybe the policy will change soon. The order from the federal headquarters allows us to start contacting first.
We are already making preliminary preparations here.
< br>For engineers like HiSilicon who have experience in topological semi-metal chip design, when we go to recruit them, we directly offer them twice the salary,” Intel’s business manager replied.
This time is the best time for Chinese semiconductor practitioners, and it is even more exciting than the time in 2018 and 2019.
In 2018, the chip tide returned to the chip tide. In fact, very few companies could survive more than four months, and most of them cheated money and subsidies.
It’s completely different now.
(End of this chapter)