Chapter 321 Golden Beans in the Salt-alkali Land (Please vote for me!)
Jiuquan.
Guo Yang had just finished exercising when he saw the message from Shen Zhi.
The estimated yield per mu of Zepu’s soybean base is also over 500 kilograms.
The soybean yield per unit area in various regions in the country varies greatly. From a national perspective, the average yield per mu during this period was only 210 to 230 kilograms.
There are three main soybean producing areas in China: spring soybeans in Northeast China, summer soybeans in the Huanghuai River Basin, and summer soybeans in the south of the Yangtze River Basin.
Northeast China has the highest yield. It is relatively easy to produce more than 400 kilograms per mu in high-yielding fertile land.
In Shandong Province, in good years, the average weight per mu has been more than 350 kilograms, which is much higher than the domestic average.
But compared with foreign soybean yields, the output of domestic non-GMO soybeans does lag far behind.
In particular, Monsanto Roundup 2 has begun to be promoted and will continue to maintain a high growth rate in yield per unit area in the next few years.
(PS: Yield comparison: kg/hectare)
…
After taking a shower, Guo Yang summarized the information sent by Shen Zhi onto the computer.
Including Jinta, there are a total of 1 million acres of saline-alkali soybean base, with a total output of 250,000 to 300,000 tons.
Compared with this year’s approximately 30 million tons of imported soybeans, the estimated total consumption of 49 million tons is still a drop in the bucket.
But this is only for the Jiahe Saline-alkali Land.
In June last year, Jiahe spent 6 billion yuan to enter the grain and oil field with high profile and made large-scale acquisitions.
At the same time, several typical high-oil and high-yield soybean planting bases have been established in the northwest, northeast, Huanghuaihai, and southwest.
This part mainly adopts the contract farming model.
Excluding the situation where farmers break the contract, there is at least nearly 10 million acres of contract area.
In these bases, most of the seeds are Tiandou No. 1, and a small amount of Tiandou No. 7 and Tiandou No. 8 (soybean seeds in coastal areas) are sown.
Based on a yield of 480 kilograms per mu, in total, Jiahe controls soybean production of about 2.65 to 2.75 million tons.
When Jiahe Grain, Oil and Soybean Processing is operating at full capacity, the daily production capacity is about 20,000 tons, which is more than four months of processing capacity.
However, in the two main production areas of Northeast China and Huanghuaihai, the sowing area of Tiandou No. 1 this year cannot be underestimated.
It’s just that this year there was drought and waterlogging again, plus the land grab for Tianyu No. 1.
The outside world is generally not very optimistic about the soybean production in these two producing areas.
As the main production area in Sanjiang Plain, Heilongjiang Province, 20 million acres of soybeans have been affected by drought, and some dead seedlings have appeared.
There are endless data on production reductions of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, etc.
This has been reflected in the futures market in advance.
However, Guo Yang still has expectations for Tiandou No. 1. The yield per mu is 480 kilograms. Even if the yield is reduced by half, it will still be 240 kilograms.
Still exceeded media expectations.
Thinking of this, Guo Yang dialed Xue Liqiang's phone number.
“Mr. ”
"..." Xue Liqiang paused and said in a low tone: "Soybeans in Black Province have been severely affected by drought this year, and the sown area has also decreased by 6.1 million acres compared with last year, falling to 52.9 million acres."
A series of The pessimistic data are no different from outside predictions.
Guo Yang asked without changing his expression: "What is the estimated total output?"
At the same time, he also looked at the total output of Black Province last year on the computer: 6.72 million tons.
According to the expectations of most outside institutions, the soybean output in Black Province this year is only about 4.9 to 5 million tons, with an average yield of less than 200 kilograms per mu.
Xue Liqiang said: "Alas, the estimated total output is only a little over 8 million tons."
"It's not bad." Guo Yang said lightly.
“It’s just okay? Are you not surprised at all? Or do you mean you don’t know last year’s output?” Xue Liqiang said in surprise:
“Last year’s total output was only more than 6 million tons. However, the production has increased by more than 1 million tons compared with last year! It is an increase in production!”
“This is an increase in production, the area has decreased by more than 6 million acres, and it has been affected by drought. Don’t you have any fluctuations in your heart?”
Guo Yang smiled and said: "Isn't this what it should be? You had great expectations for Tiandou No. 1 at the beginning. And the number is almost the same as I estimated. I still know how many seeds have been sold to the Northeast."
"There is nothing to be excited about. After calculation, the average yield per mu in the entire Black Province has just reached 300 kilograms, which is the same as that in the Americas. The situation of soybean imports has not changed."
Xue Liqiang was silent.
Do you have to compare with foreign countries?
Is it better than last year?
a long time.
"Are there enough seeds produced this year? Nongken will introduce Tiandou No. 1 on a large scale next year."
Guo Yang looked at the statistics on the computer. Tiandou No. 1 is in black The proportion of sowing in the province is already quite large.
23.8 million acres, accounting for 45%.
Jiusan Grain and Oil and Nongken are not trying their best. You must know that Nongken also has a soybean seed company.
Every extra cent Tiandou takes is equivalent to the meat of the seed company under its umbrella.
45%.
That's enough.
And just like Tianyu No. 1, the variety is too single, which is not necessarily a good thing.
Guo Yang muttered: "The proportion of Tiandou No. 1 is enough, and then we can focus on Tiandou No. 8."
"Tian Dou No. 8?"
"Yes, it was a variety that was only released in the middle of last year and was trial-planted this year. It is also suitable for the Northeast region. The yield is higher, but the effect of improving salinity and alkali is one level lower."
“That’s enough, that’s enough.” Plant?”
“No, just push it. If Tianhe says it can produce high yield, it will definitely produce high yield.”
Guo Yang smiled and asked: "8 million tons, how many people know this estimated data?"
"Very few."
"Okay, congratulations."< br>
“Same joy.”
Maybe the counterattack will start from here?
Guo Yang thought.
Last year, due to the promotion of Tiandou No. 1, domestic soybean production barely stabilized at around 17 million tons, making history turn around.
This year alone, Black Province produced 8 million tons.
This was achieved even though the average yield per mu was reduced by more than 30 kilograms due to drought.
The data in Jilin Province is difficult to verify.
However, the data from Heilongjiang Province are roughly consistent with Tianhe's seed sales data, so Jilin Province is not much different.
This year the soybean sowing area in Jilin Province is 7.5 million acres, a decrease of 1.35 million acres compared with the previous year.
The province’s yield per mu is also calculated as 300 kilograms, which is 1.125 million tons.
Including 600,000 tons from Liao Province.
The entire Northeast production area is 9.7 million tons.
The Huang-Huai-Hai summer soybean area is no less generous, with a total of 9 million tons.
In other production areas, the influence of the Tiandou series is not that great, but there are still some sales.
Especially there are coastal saline-alkali lands.
Last year, Alfalfa No. 1 improved more than 8 million acres of saline-alkali land, and Tiandou No. 1 improved about more than 1 million acres.
The effect is remarkable.
This year, Tiandou No. 1 has a sufficient supply of seeds, filling the space left by Alfalfa No. 1.
The area of saline-alkali land sown is about 10 million acres.
This is more than 2 million tons again.
After calculation, the soybean area nationwide this year should be stable, still around 135 million acres.
After a series of estimates, Guo Yang came up with an approximate production figure.
28 to 30 million tons!
Compared with last year, production increased by more than 60%.
This is an extremely scary number.
Even if someone sends this statistic out, it is hard for people to believe it.
It will definitely lead to all kinds of doubts.
Moreover, few institutions can accurately predict this year's soybean production estimate, because the emergence of Tianhe has broken the inherent rules.
Even if the National Bureau of Statistics comes, it may not be as fast and accurate as Tianhe’s estimate.
......
Guo Yang made himself a cup of kenaf tea, his thoughts still rolling.
The total domestic soybean consumption this year is expected to be 49 million tons. Based on last year's output of 17 million tons, 32 million tons will need to be imported.
Taking into account factors such as inventories and production reduction expectations, general institutions estimate that imports this year will be more than 30 million tons.
But now the actual production may have reached 30 million tons, and the gap is only 19 million tons.
11 million tons less than agency estimates.
Guo Yang is analyzing the possible impact, which is related to Jiahe Grain and Oil’s strategy in the futures market.
The conclusion is that it is of greater practical significance and can significantly boost the domestic soybean industry and public confidence.
You know, according to historical trajectory, by 2020, my country's total soybean consumption has reached 120 million tons a year, but domestic production is only 19.6 million tons, and 83% relies on imports.
Now is the time when people’s confidence is being depressed, and they will be numb in the future.
Although production has increased, in the futures market, the bullish trend will not change in the face of the trillions of dollars pouring in from the subprime mortgage and financial markets.
Not to mention the constant global disasters this year.
Grain production is decreasing everywhere.
So it is still very stable to go long.
But what about next year?
China’s soybean production has increased sharply this year, bucking the trend. Will it be allowed to increase sharply next year?
The institutions must think so.
Guo Yang is thinking about how to take advantage of the information gap in his hands. Information about the reverse growth of domestic soybeans this year can temporarily suppress prices.
Jiahe Cereals and Oils can do T on a small scale, and then take the opportunity to add positions and go long.
But the further you go, the greater the pressure will be to predict growth next year, and institutions may be bearish in advance.
But there is another variable factor in North America: red fire ants and caltrops.
The increase in domestic soybean production and the decrease in North American soybean production are offset by an increase and a decrease.
So, it is quite safe to be bullish.
After writing down various analyses, data, and nodes one by one, Guo Yang fell into a deep sleep.
He slept very comfortably. When he was outside the office, he couldn't wait to communicate with Gaode about increasing soybean production.
He figured out that since it could not affect the general trend, it would be better to release it early to boost national confidence.
By the way, let’s suppress futures prices.
Jiahe Grain and Oil follows the trend and makes a T, and subsequent funds will have better entry opportunities.
You may not be able to hide it if you hold it in your hand, and it will feel uncomfortable to hold it in your heart.
When he heard the estimated output of domestic soybeans, Gaode was so shocked that he lost his temper for a moment.
"How much? 30 million tons?"
"Yes, the error will not be too big." Guo Yang smiled, and sure enough, he felt much more comfortable saying it.
Gaode pursed his lips tightly. The impact was too great. Suddenly, the soybean self-sufficiency rate increased from 30% to 60%.
The impact is too widespread.
“Should I be prepared to go short?”
Guo Yang smiled and said nothing.
Gothe took a sip of tea, took a moment, thought, and tried to calm down.
The background is global financial risks. El Niño has led to a general reduction in global soybean production this year.
Last year, global production was 228 million tons, which was expected to be reduced by about 6%, that is, 13.68 million tons.
The increase in domestic soybean production is 3000-1700=13 million tons, almost turning global decline into increase.
Gaode’s heart is hot!
But the cold numbers also made him regain his composure. This number has a great impact, but it will also bring many opportunities to Jiahe Cereals and Oils, depending on how it is operated.
Does the boss look confident?
Gaode watched quietly.
Guo Yang smiled and said: "The news will be released in the next two days. Jiahe Grain and Oil can sell part of it in advance and then buy it back at a low price. The remaining funds can also take the opportunity to enter the market."
"Are you still bullish in the long term?"
"Yes." Guo Yang thought for a while and revealed some information: "There may be variables in the soybean production in the United States."
Gothe was stunned for a moment. Is there a change in America? That is the world's largest soybean-producing area.
"Okay, I'll follow and set off."
"Call me when you're ready."
......
Gold nine and silver ten.
The harvest season is gradually entering everywhere.
In some southern areas where rice matures early, harvesting of rice begins in July.
But in Jiangsu Province, sea rice is still in a critical period of growth, and the green seedlings are very strong and swaying in the wind.
However, sea rice is only one of the protagonists.
In comparison, alfalfa and soybeans are even more impressive.
Tiandou No. 1 was planted on the land with mild to moderate saline-alkali, and alfalfa was grown on the land with moderate to severe saline-alkali.
Over the course of a year, the salt in the ground has been ‘eaten’ to an extent, and the income is still quite high.
On a certain farmland in Yancheng, village cadre Zhang Yong was walking on a field road while answering the phone.
“It’s gone, gone, gone at all. All the salinity-alkali land that can be transferred has been contracted. It’s useless for you to ask anyone.”
“Reclamation? You have to get approval. Documentation procedures come. ”
"I can't be accommodating."
Zhang Yong pulled open the soybean leaves with his hand, revealing the plump pods below. They were bulging and it looked like they would be harvested soon.
At this moment, a car stopped beside him, revealing a 'little pretty face'.
The ‘little pretty face’ is a researcher from a securities institution named Zhang Jin. He handed over a cigarette in a familiar manner.
“Fellow, how do these soybeans look?”
"It's good." Zhang Yong smiled, took Hua Zi and started smoking.
“How many kilograms can be harvested from one acre?”
Zhang Yong thought for a while and said, “It’s not easy to estimate. There should be four to five hundred kilograms.”
< br>Zhang Jin was trembling with fright.
“So high?”
"This kind of seed is good." Zhang Yong said with a smile: "In the past years, in the good land around here, as long as people were diligent, it was easy to give birth to three or four hundred pounds."
Zhang Jin said suspiciously: " It's not far from the coastline. It's all saline-alkali land. How can we still have this kind of production? "
"Young man, do you know how to farm?" Zhang Yong took a puff of his cigarette and said: "Saline-alkali land is now a hot commodity, and even if there are bosses who want to contract it, it is gone."
"???" Zhang Jin looked confused. This is only the second year of coastal saline-alkali land improvement, so there is no land left?
“If you can make money, you must not be robbed by others.” Zhang Yong said: “What is left now are some more difficult tidal flats and ponds, which can only be reclaimed.”
"There are still some that are located within the ecological protection red line and wetlands and cannot be developed and utilized."
"How profitable is it?"
With this question, researcher Zhang Jin carried out a survey in the surrounding area Investigate more deeply.
The largest area is alfalfa, followed by soybeans, and finally rice.
But there is no doubt that each of them can be said to have outstanding benefits in the planting industry.
In particular, the salt-eating properties of alfalfa and Tendou No. 1 allow the soil to be improved, which is extremely attractive to farmers and cooperatives.
This is a long-term deal.
After it was determined that they could make money, the coastal saline-alkali land with development value was contracted in advance.
During the investigation, what shocked him was that estimates of soybean production were generally above 400 kilograms.
How many saline-alkali lands are planted with soybeans?
Zhang Jin couldn't calculate it, but he could speculate that by looking at local statistics, he could get a rough figure.
There are not many researchers like him who go deep into the fields, and even fewer target coastal saline-alkali lands.
More people are focusing on the main production areas.
After returning to the company, Zhang Jin sent his investigation results to his supervisor Qiu Ying.
Qiu Ying just looked at it briefly, then frowned unconsciously, and then frowned deeper and deeper.
"The soybean sowing area in Jiangsu Province is 4.7 million acres? Zhang Jin, you are definitely not mistaken. This area has increased by nearly 1.5 million acres compared with last year! Are you crazy, or are the farmers crazy?"
"Also The estimated total output is over one million tons. How did you get it?"
Zhang Jin said: "A lot of soybeans are planted on the coastal saline-alkali land in Suzhou, and the increased area and output are both. From here.”
“Farmers are reluctant to plant soybeans in various places because of poor returns. Even if it is saline-alkali land, the cost of cultivating it is not low. Can soybeans be profitable?”
Qiu Ying still had some doubts, but her tone softened a lot.
She was still impressed by the news last year that 10 million acres of cultivated land were added to the coastal saline-alkali land.
This year the situation is even more intense.
But even if it is a saline-alkali land, it seems that pasture is the main force for improvement!
Zhang Jin said: "Tianhe's soybean seeds are quite special. They are salt-tolerant and salt-resistant, and the yield is very high. The farmers who inquired estimated the yield at 400 to 500 kilograms."
"Well..." Qiu Ying pondered for a while and said: "If it is true, this will be of great reference value."
In the next few days, Qiu Ying and Zhang Jin retrieved data from other regions and further confirmed this judgment.
There are variables in this year’s soybean production.
Not only Jiangsu Province, but also Shandong, Hebei, Tianjin, Liaoning and other provinces have a lot of saline-alkali soil soybeans.
And not only the sown area, but also the soybean production in various places has become confusing.
How many soybeans are there on the coastal saline-alkali land? How much production has been reduced in Northeast China and Huanghuaihai? Or maybe the plants died, but the yield per mu increased compared to last year?
The securities institution couldn't figure it out, so fortunately it used the researcher's guessed data.
Then it was reported truthfully.
And it soon attracted widespread attention in the securities market.
At the beginning, most people were skeptical.
After all, Jiangsu Province alone has increased the soybean area by 1.5 million acres, and the total output has also increased significantly by hundreds of thousands of tons, crossing the million-ton mark for the first time.
No matter how you look at this data, it is a bit incredible.
But if you pay a little attention, you will notice that there are many more reports about saline-alkali lands in various places this year.
“Agricultural deserts turn into fertile fields, and saline-alkali lands hope for a bumper harvest—Dongying, Shandong Province, deeply taps the soybean planting potential in saline-alkali lands and actively develops and introduces new salt-alkali tolerant varieties, turning “agricultural deserts” into “ecological granaries.” ”
“The Yellow River Delta paints an ecological picture, and high-quality forage turns the salt-alkali whiteness into pastoral green. ”
“Cultivation of saline-alkali land, intensive cultivation of soybean fields...”
"In the dry saline-alkali land northwest of Jinta, golden soybeans roll like waves, and heavy pods hang all over the branches - Long Province Daily."
Lu Province, Su Province, Hebei Province, Liaoning Province Province, Zhejiang Province...as long as the districts and counties involved in saline-alkali land improvement have published reports, this is a political achievement that can be demonstrated.
Every report mentions the increase in cultivated land, the transformation of deserts into fertile fields, and the transformation of low-yield fields into high-yield fields.
Unlike last year, which was entirely focused on the coast, this year even the saline-alkali land in the northwest made a sound.
There are also relevant reports in Xinjiang Province and Long Province.
Suddenly, those who paid attention to this matter suddenly discovered that for more than half a year, there seemed to be salt-alkali land everywhere around them.
In these reports, in addition to high-quality forage, there is also another frequently mentioned variety: Tiandou No. 1.
It is also a salt-tolerant variety.
It is also owned by Tianhe Seed Industry.
How much more farmland will be added this year? Besides alfalfa, how much is soybean?
…
Jiuquan.
Guo Yang also paid attention to the information on the grain and oil market, and couldn't help but sigh, there are still keen institutions.
Fortunately, we made early preparations.
At this time, it was already September 10th, and spring soybean harvesting had already begun in some areas.
The two main production areas of Huanghuaihai and Northeast China are also preparing to start harvesting.
Gaode has also been away for eight or nine days.
During this period, the two communicated every day. Nowadays, the positions and funds that need to be adjusted are almost ready at home and abroad.
No need to worry anymore, Guo Yang immediately asked Fu Qiuyan to cooperate with Tianhe's people to increase relevant publicity efforts.
The next day.
"Grain and Oil Market News" temporarily published an article: Sleeping saline-alkali land has become a new granary, and soybean production is expected to increase by more than 10 million tons.
Details the temporary changes in domestic soybean production.
“The output of the two main soybean-producing areas in Northeast China and Huanghuaihai has not decreased but has increased. Even with a significant reduction in sown area, they have achieved substantial growth against the trend.”
“Jinta, Ze Soybeans in the arid areas of northwest China have had a good harvest, with a yield of nearly 600 kilograms per mu, and salt-alkali tolerant soybeans have once again broken the high-yield record. "
"Jiahe has quietly deployed in the southern summer soybean area in the Yangtze River Basin, with nearly 10 million acres of contract farming. .”
"It is estimated that the total soybean production in the country in 2007 is very likely to exceed 30 million tons of soybeans. How to be self-sufficient in soybeans, the emergence of new salt-alkali tolerant soybean strains, gives the perfect answer!"
Following, Other media also reported on it one after another, and some professional websites even directly reproduced it.
Titles are usually simple and direct.
Total soybean production exceeds 30 million tons!
Exceptionally eye-catching.
As time went by, Tianhe and officials from various places accepted interviews one after another, talking about saline-alkali land improvement and Tiandou No. 1.
“Breeding is both a science and an art - It was July, and in the soybean breeding base of Tianhe Seed Industry in Jiaxiang, Shandong Province, young scientific researchers were wearing straw hats and hunched over. , working hard in the soybean base to detassel and pollinate - to develop salt-alkali tolerant and high-yield soybeans, aiming for the next high-yield record. "
"This is not the first victory of Tiandou No. 1, it has become a prairie fire. As a result, soybean saline-alkali lands in Northeast China, Huanghuaihai Sea, Hexi Corridor, and Xinjiang Province have become fertile fields for soybeans.” Alkaline genes are used to cultivate new soybean varieties with high and stable yields, suitable for large-scale production, and high comprehensive benefits.”
“Tiandou No. 1 does not have the highest yield. We also have Tiandou No. 7 and Tiandou No. 8. , and Tiandou 6 in the high-altitude cold area..."
"The use of marginal land such as saline-alkali lands and deserts is the best way to expand planting area."
The situation is getting worse.
The news channel also published a special report: How to turn saline-alkali land into fertile farmland?
A reporter also asked the spokesperson of the Ministry of Agriculture: "How much coastal saline-alkali land has been turned into cultivated land this year?"
"More than 30 million acres, the specific details will have to wait for this year's project acceptance results. ”
"I heard that there are no more saline-alkali lands in Binhai?"
"Some of the land was contracted only in the past two months and will not be improved until next year. The rest are large tidal flats and ponds, which will take three or four years to unify. Reclamation planning and transformation, and some wetlands and ecological reserves cannot be used for agricultural development.”
The spokesperson only gave an approximate number, but it is shocking enough.
Last year it was 10 million acres, this year it is 30 million acres, an increase of more than 40 million acres of cultivated land in two years!
This is a great event!
Media from all walks of life rushed to tell each other, and local TV stations conducted interviews in the fields every day.
Saline-alkali land has appeared frequently in the "Getting Rich" column recently.
"High-yielding soybeans are growing in the saline-alkali land of the Yellow River Delta."
"Wang E was under tremendous pressure and changed 1,200 acres of water-consuming rice to soybeans in one go. When harvested, up to 500 kilograms The yield surprised this big grower. You must know that in 2006, the average soybean yield per mu in my country was only more than 220 kilograms.” Thousands.”
Audiences are also happy to watch these programs.
How easy it is to grow food!
This output and income are eye-catching to see.
In this situation, the whole society is inexplicably filled with joy.
And this also caused an uproar in the grain and oil market.
A wake-up call for the current hot soybean market, both the November 1 soybean contract and the forward contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange saw a sharp correction.
Even the No. 2 soybean contract, which has a profound impact on the global market, has also seen a chain reaction.
The Chicago Board of Trade in North America was also affected.
Soybean futures have experienced huge fluctuations for several consecutive days.
(End of this chapter)