Chapter 322: Soybeans have just ended, corn is here again (Thank you for your monthly votes)
China’s soybean consumption ranks second in the world, but its import volume is far ahead.
In 2006, China imported about 28 million tons of soybeans.
In 2007, the forecast data given by the two major professional organizations in the United States were around 30 million tons, accounting for 34% of global trade volume.
Soybean oil imports are forecast to be 2.8 million tons, accounting for 28% of global soybean oil trade volume.
Although such a trade status has no pricing power, international soybean prices are soaring now, and genetically modified soybeans no longer have a price advantage...
With the news of China's extraordinary increase in soybean production, the U.S. grain and oil market was temporarily in chaos. .
No matter what, let’s respect you first.
The Chicago soybean futures contract fell sharply.
The two major professional organizations, Informa Economic Company and "Oil World", were panicked.
Just last month, Informa Economics predicted China's annual soybean output to be 15.3 million tons.
"Oil World" gave 14.8 million tons.
And now China’s answer to the world is 30 million tons!
What kind of international joke is this?
It has doubled!
To describe it as a slap in the face is light, this is the output of riding on the face!
Those farmers and companies with long-term subscriptions have long scolded the two major institutions bloody!
“This is a sad fact. The inform that we rely on actually made such a stupid mistake. It’s twice as bad. My grandma even did better than them.”
"If I meet someone from "Oil World" right now, I will take out my gun and kill him!"
"Informa's President Hernan Mark was interviewed two days ago. They talked a lot about the tightening of global soybean supply, but the result was a big mess.”
This is the most embarrassing time for Hernan Mark and Srein Levine of "Oil World".
Your reputation is ruined!
Eighteen generations of ancestors were greeted cordially!
Moreover, until now, they have not even grasped the specific situation.
After Hernan and Slayin got angry in their offices, they organized manpower to investigate and contact them.
…
North America, AIG Financial Corporation.
This is also one of the dead bulls in the grain futures market today.
The sharp decline that day caused AIG to lose all the profits it had finally accumulated.
Then it fell again, causing AIG to start losing money.
This made Wally Paulson, who was in charge of grain futures trading at a financial company, extremely angry.
A phone call was made to Duncan Malone of the trading company.
"Look at the good things you have done. You are being played by that Chinese, like a stupid monkey with no wisdom at all."
On the other side, Duncan Malone frowned, but he still retained some sense.
“Fuck! What happened?”
"Fuck you! Aren't you going to buy Jiahe's grain? It's a good buy. You happened to buy it at the highest point. Now you're in a loss. If we lose, you don't want to take it easy." Paulson said fiercely.
After hanging up the phone, I saw the unstoppable decline and made the decision to stop the loss in time.
“Already lost money?”
Half an hour later, Duncan Malone, who understood the cause and effect of the incident, looked confused.
Grain trading, to be honest, is definitely not good for insurance companies like AIG.
However, the potential risks within the federation and the huge profits from commodity trading have brought AIG to this unfamiliar territory.
It was originally a substantial profit, then the profit disappeared, and now there is a loss. Duncan Malone can understand Paulson's mood.
Because not long ago, he also completed a spot transaction with Jiahe Cereals and Oils.
The two parties have conducted several transactions in recent times, and the transaction price has been rising steadily.
If you sell subsequently at the current futures market price, you will definitely lose money.
Duncan Malone remembered the last meeting. The Chinese man looked reluctant at that time.
"These yellow-skinned monkeys, damn them! If I had known, I would have taught them a lesson last time."
Besides, Barnes, who also suffered a loss, also looked uncomfortable. .
But anger does nothing.
Barnes said: "I have his phone number, Guo Yang, the boss of Jiahe! Come and call him."
"Why don't you fight?"
"TNND, the alfalfa seeds have just entered the harvest period, and Nitro still wants to buy his alfalfa No. 1 seeds! You don't have to worry about this, you can say whatever you want. "
Duncan Malone didn't think much about it. He also wanted to find a place to vent.
It took a long time before the call was connected.
After a cordial greeting, the two stopped when they heard there was no movement on the other side.
"Are you done?" Guo Yang was also a little angry. He was woken up in the middle of the night and was greeted like this. He felt unhappy for a long time.
“Do you know about grain futures?”
“Isn’t it normal to have ups and downs?”
“This is normal commercial trade. Sometimes, look for more Find your own reasons, have you worked hard? "
"If not, ask ADM, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus. Do you think they are yelling at you? Even Monsanto is better than you. Reason.”
Guo Yang took a deep breath and said in a deep voice: "Perhaps I can give you a suggestion, it depends on whether you want to listen to it or not?"
"Fuck! What suggestion can restore our losses?" Duncan Malone said with a look on his face If you get angry, hang up the phone.
Barnes said quickly: "Listen to what he said."
Guo Yang whistled, making Duncan Malone grit his teeth in anger, and then heard the voice from the other party. .
“Stop the loss in time.”
"Fuck you! Stop the loss? Do you know how much of a loss that is?" Duncan Malone was furious.
Guo Yang Youyou said: "Say hello to Monsanto for me."
"Shit! Don't ask yourself..."
But the phone has been hung up.
Duncan Malone and Barnes looked at each other, and they could see the confusion in each other's eyes, Monsanto?
"What should we do now?"
Barnes thought for a while and said: "I'll call Callum, he was the one who invited me in."
Duncan Malone He nodded and said: "Yes, yes, Guo also said just now that Monsanto is very calm. I have reason to suspect that Monsanto set up a trap for us!"
"Fuck! It's really possible!"
A few moments.
Barnes dialed Callum's number and then yelled in an angry and gloomy tone.
“Fuck! This soybean crash has caused us heavy losses, and Monsanto will give us an explanation!”
His response was also a greeting with a very high content of Fa.
Callum works in Monsanto’s grass seed division, but soybeans are one of Monsanto’s specialties, and he understands the situation.
However, he still found his colleague, Dujia Cone from the futures department.
"China's soybean production has increased, and super-high-yield soybean seeds have appeared. The most uncomfortable one is definitely Monsanto!"
Barnes laughed: "Super-high-yield soybean seeds? Isn't that what Monsanto is best at? You have already obtained it. China’s GMO certificate, so it is said that Roundup No. 2 has entered the Chinese market..."
Dujia Cone interrupted angrily.
"Fuck! Give up your random speculation, China has never allowed Roundup soybean seeds to enter the market."
"What's going on?"
"Monsanto is also one of the biggest victims. All the costs we paid in China in the early stage were in vain! In Chicago, Monsanto also paid the price."
"So in North America this year..."
< br>"Idiot, fuck..."
Duggar Cone hung up the phone violently.
One thing he did not say, and did not dare to say, was that there were a large number of weeds in the soybean fields in Illinois.
This weed, like genetically modified soybeans, is resistant to the effects of glyphosate!
There are even vague rumors that the agrochemical service company increased the dosage of glyphosate in order to control weeds. As a result, the weeds were fine, and the soybeans took the lead in curling their leaves and shrinking.
Who is genetically modified?
The sky has fallen for Monsanto!
How long can I keep this news secret?
In contrast, Monsanto gritted its teeth and swallowed the little fluctuation in the futures market.
……
Cargill’s global CEO Albert also led a group of people to analyze the impact of China’s increase in soybean production.
Cargill will be heartbroken by the fluctuations in the futures market, but it will not pay special attention to it and will just make timely adjustments.
What he cares about is the stability of the global industrial chain.
Because the development of corn fuel ethanol has driven up corn prices, corn has occupied part of the soybean planting area.
Therefore, according to the judgment of inform and "Oil World", the supply of global soybeans is tightening.
This is also a situation created by the tacit understanding of several major grain merchants. The next two years will be the time for a bumper harvest.
At this critical time point, China, the main terminal market of the global industrial chain, has experienced huge changes.
In the conference room, the heated discussion was still going on.
"Let's have another soybean war. If you can defeat him the first time, you can defeat him the second time!"
"Fight with the head? There is no price advantage this time."
"Then Just lower the price to a cost they can’t accept, just like last time!”
“Oh, it’s difficult!” The speaker shook his head, “China is not just increasing its planting area this time, the key is The substantial increase in unit yield has also reduced the production cost of soybeans per ton. Now it is difficult to judge who has the lower production cost.”
“It is difficult to win a price war for a while. It might hurt both sides!”
The more we discussed, the more frightened I became.
You don’t have to worry about the increase in sown area. The increase in cultivated land makes people frown, but the increase in yield makes people feel that something is wrong!
Because seed promotion has a process.
Once a breakthrough seed is obtained, the average soybean yield in this country will increase rapidly within 3 to 5 years.
The more growth, the higher the efficiency and the lower the cost. The only remaining advantage of American soybeans may be scale...
In the next few years, the market share of this important terminal market in the global industrial chain will become higher and higher.
“Actually, there is no need to be so panicked.”
The voice of a grain analyst echoed in the silent conference room.
In an instant, everyone looked over.
Albert also motioned for him to continue.
The analyst nodded and said: "China is a rapidly developing market. This year's soybean consumption is expected to be 49 million tons, but by 2010, our forecast data is no less than 60 million tons, and it will maintain a rapid growth trend. , by 2016, the consumption will exceed 100 million tons.”
“If China’s soybean yield is 400 kilograms per unit, it will require 500 million acres of land.”
“To produce 500 kilograms per unit, 400 million tons will be needed. Hundreds of millions of acres of land.”
“A yield of 600 jins per unit requires 333 million acres.”
“A yield of 700 jins per unit requires 285 million acres.”
"The yield per unit area is 800 kilograms, 250 million acres..."
As the analysts spit out cold data one after another, everyone gradually calmed down.
Nothing is more useful than data speaking.
Even this year, China’s soybean self-sufficiency rate has reached 60%, but it is still the world’s largest soybean importer.
Consumption is growing rapidly.
But yields cannot grow without limit in the short term.
Even if China has reached the threshold of 400 kilograms of yield per unit area and caught up with the United States, what about the land?
Someone said: "There are authoritative reports that China has added more than 40 million acres of cultivated land in the past two years, and it is expected that there will be an increase of tens of millions of acres next year. After the coastal reclamation is completed in the next few years, there may be tens of millions more acres. The increase in acres..."
This is another basin of cold water.
The analyst said calmly: "There are about 105 million saline-alkali lands in China's coastal areas. Excluding wetlands and ecological land, it is regarded as an increase of 80 million acres of cultivated land."
"If all these 80 million acres are planted with soybeans, it will only be 215 million acres. The yield per mu is 400 kilograms, and the total output is 43 million tons. The yield per mu is 500 kilograms, and the total output is 53.75 million tons..."
"Okay, Don't forget it, the overall trend will not change." Albert interrupted.
“In any case, China’s soybean increase production and becoming resistant are not good news for us.”
“Continue to close short positions?” futures analysts asked, after , Cargill reacted immediately as soon as the bad news came out.
“No need.” Albert said: “It’s just over 10 million tons more. The market has almost finished digesting the bad news.” After the meeting, Albert dialed the number of a certain director. Telephone.
The rest of the grain merchants also had mixed reactions. Some chose to resist hard, and some chose to avoid the edge temporarily.
But they quickly stabilized their position. After all, it is a large company that has been around for a hundred years. The risks are controllable and the pricing power is still firmly in hand.
It’s just that this time the opponent is more resistant to beating.
…
September 13th.
After falling for three consecutive trading days, Informa Economics and Oil World urgently released the latest supply and demand report.
Still maintaining the previous judgment, global soybean supply is tightening.
In the previous judgment, the production prospects of soybeans in the United States and Brazil were lowered, which offset the increase in soybean production in Argentina.
But this time, although the data given by the two agencies were slightly biased, they both tacitly lowered the soybean production of the United States and Brazil again.
United States: 74 million tons - 72.5 million tons.
Brazil: 61 million tons - 59.7 million tons.
Brazil has suffered from the impact of climate, and in the United States, red fire ants are spreading again. At the same time, soybean fields are also affected by stubborn weeds.
In addition, "Oil World" also judged that global soybean consumption is still much higher than production.
At noon that day, a spokesperson for the Federal Ministry of Agriculture also claimed: “In order to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, European and American countries are actively developing biofuel industries, using soybean oil as raw material for biodiesel. Production is increasing year by year.”
"In the long term, the rapid development of biodiesel will significantly expand the consumption of soybean oil."
At the same time, federal leader Bush will sign a new energy bill in December.
After several consecutive fires, the Chicago Board of Trade soybean contract quickly stopped its decline and began to rebound rapidly.
…
September 15th.
Looking at the rapidly rebounding market, Guo Yang was wondering, should we continue?
Jiahe Cereals and Oils and Weiguang Company completed a large amount of capital entry at low levels during these trading days.
A rough estimate.
At the beginning of the year, 3 billion funds entered the market. In the middle of the year, the 3 billion reserved as reserve funds were gradually completed.
At that time, the leverage was 4.5, and the funds mobilized were 27 billion yuan. In the past six months, the accumulated floating profit was nearly 20%.
That’s 5.4 billion yuan! Compared with the original capital of 6 billion yuan, the profit reached 90%!
But this time,
first adjusted the position to go short, and then backhand to go long, taking the opportunity to adjust the leverage to about 6 times, which is about 6/4.5*270=36 billion.
Then the floating profit of 5.4 billion yuan began to add positions again, 54*6=32.4 billion yuan!
After selling grain, 12.4 billion yuan was recovered. This time, only about 3 billion yuan was made. 6 times leverage is about 18 billion yuan.
The total is 86.4 billion yuan!
The Chicago soybean futures contract's rapid stop of decline is closely related to Jiahe's large-scale entry into the market.
In the past few trading days, Chicago soybean futures trading has been very active. The daily trading volume has reached 16.7 billion US dollars, and even exceeded 20 billion US dollars at the peak.
The actual new investment in Jiahe this time is 864-270 = 59.4 billion yuan, which is approximately 7.92 billion U.S. dollars. The daily new investment is approximately 2 billion U.S. dollars.
Minimize outside attention.
In the past few trading days, the fluctuation range of the decline and rebound was close to 16%, giving Jiahe a lot of room for operation.
The account return rate reached 11.7%, and the floating profit on the book was approximately 10.1 billion yuan.
Compared with the original capital of 30+30+54+30=14.4 billion yuan, the net income in a few trading days reached 70.1%!
As for the 12.4 billion yuan of funds raised from selling grain and recycling, about 9.4 billion yuan has not yet had time to enter the market.
But even this made Gao De, Yang Cheng and others frightened.
"Boss, do you want to close the position?"
Guo Yang hears this every day, but how can he close the position before the good show begins?
This time the book floating profit is 10.1 billion yuan more, the risks of each account have plummeted, and you can continue to make profits!
There is still 9.4 billion left from selling grain. Can I use it to buy spot goods?
This is indeed the way to go, because the spot price is also bullish in the future, and you will not lose money when buying grain.
But for one thing, large-scale harvesting of soybeans, corn, and rice has not yet begun, and there is still a month or two left.
And there is an unexpected factor.
Corn!
Corn production will also increase this year!
Guo Yang’s original idea was to hold back the Tianyu No. 1 seed sales data in his hand and wait for the international grain merchants to deliver a fatal blow.
However, things have changed now.
Because of soybeans, international grain merchants and domestic institutions have increased their research on production areas.
It just so happens that spring corn has also entered the harvest season.
It is very likely that they will meet together.
Farmers sowing spring corn in some production areas, such as the Huanghuaihai production area, have already sent out good news of a bumper harvest.
There are many local reports.
The reported yields are not low, basically around 3,000 kilograms per mu.
Especially in Quancheng, which suffered heavy rains this summer, some places can still produce more than 2,000 kilograms.
What’s more, some farmers in the northwest region who tried to grow Tianyu No. 8 silage corn reported super-high yield data of more than 4,000 kilograms per mu.
It’s hard not to be noticed in this situation.
It would be better to simply use it to increase corn production and make some fuss in the corn futures market.
The actual sown area of Tianyu No. 1 is more than 200 million acres.
Increase production by more than 60 million tons.
Even bolder, more than 70 million tons is not impossible.
Coupled with the fact that many soybeans and other crops have been replanted with corn, the area in Heilongjiang Province alone is 6.1 million acres, and Jilin Province also has more than 1 million acres.
Including Huanghuaihai and other producing areas, the country's corn sown area this year is 420 million acres, an increase of more than 16 million acres compared with last year.
This is even 10 million tons.
Total production is expected to increase by 70 to 80 million tons, reaching more than 246 million to 2.56 tons.
You know, due to the substantial increase in corn production in China last year, there was a surplus of 20 to 30 million tons.
As a result, the development reform did not ultimately halt the development of domestic corn bioenergy.
This year's total demand is also several million tons higher than the original time and space, reaching 145 million tons.
But there is still a surplus of 101 to 111 million tons.
In the same way, if the corn yield per unit area increases and the unit cost decreases, the domestic corn price will definitely drop significantly.
At this time, export has the advantage, and its impact on the international market is far greater than that of soybeans.
Guo Yang was playing with the newly harvested corn cobs in his hand, pacing back and forth in the office, thinking over and over again.
If there are no other variables, the food crisis led by the four major grain merchants may come to nothing next summer.
But there are variables!
Still in North America!
Red fire ants and caltrops.
The damage caused by these two animals and plants this year should not be small, but the peak period will definitely be next year.
Corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton in the Midwestern United States will all be affected.
Food crises will still come.
There are just a few more fluctuations in the middle.
Currently, he should be the only one in the world who can predict this news accurately, right?
Done!
The situation has reached this point.
The nights are long and the dreams are many. The longer the time drags on, the harder it will be to grasp the future!
With the decision made, Guo Yang took action.
First, Gaode and Yang Cheng were given instructions: short domestic and international corn futures.
After estimating the time difference, Guo Yang called Lin and Bureau Nie one after another when the Chicago market opened.
The focus was on the actual yield of corn, and Jiahe’s operation direction was briefly discussed.
Given the situation in China and North America, international grain merchants and capital probably have no intention of coming to China.
Then take the initiative.
……
Beijing.
After receiving the news, Bureau Lin and Director Nie met immediately.
“It’s not easy!”
“246 million tons, this output is only 30 million tons lower than the United States!” Bureau Nie laughed and said: “I have never been so rich. It’s a battle!”
Lin Bu said worriedly: “You are rich, but I just feel a pain in my forehead. I don’t know how much corn will be unsaleable this year!”< br>
“What’s so difficult about this? The price of crude oil is soaring and it’s much more exciting to process it into bioenergy.”
"Building factories and expanding production capacity will take time!" Lin Bu said: "The main reason is that it was too sudden and the futures market is unstable..."
"Every gain must come with a loss. If you have this opportunity, Not bad.”
“Yes, but it’s a pity that corn feed cannot completely replace soybean feed, otherwise this time it will be over once and for all.”
“Hey, if you keep selling at a low price, there will be fewer farmers next year. Planting corn and many kinds of soybeans." Director Nie raised his eyebrows: "If you say this, if the international grain merchants didn't come to cause trouble, we would still suffer heavy losses!"
After chatting for a while, Lin Bu said. After getting down to business, "Jiahe wants to take the initiative. What do you think about this?"
Bureau Nie's lips raised high and he smiled and said: "As I said, I have never fought such a rich battle, so I'll be done with it."
…
September 16th.
Dashi, Information Department.
Manager Zhang Xingbao came to the office as usual, made a cup of tea, and took away today's newspaper.
In the past few days, the most popular thing has been the substantial increase in domestic soybean production.
As a person like him who is used to seeing big scenes, he can't help but feel secretly frightened.
More than 10 million tons...
While shaking his head, he read the newspaper.
“Poof…”
Before he could take a sip of tea, he spat it out.
He rubbed his eyes, looked at it again, and made sure he saw it correctly.
The bright red headline - National corn output is 256 million tons! A sudden increase of 80 million tons! The cumulative production increase in two years is 112 million tons! ! !
"Which newspaper is not good enough..."
Before he could finish his sentence, he saw several familiar big characters of "Grain and Oil Market News".
This is the only authoritative major newspaper in the domestic grain and oil system.
Issued nationwide, it is highly professional and has a large amount of information. Almost all grain and oil companies and financial institutions will order this newspaper.
If he doesn’t join the mainstream...there will be no authoritative grain and oil media in China.
There is no doubt about the authenticity.
Zhang Xinbao was a little confused for a moment.
80 million tons?
Cumulative production increase of 112 million tons?
These two figures... are tantamount to dropping a bombshell in the calm lake water!
How is this possible!
Even if it is the "Grain and Oil Market News", it is not necessarily and impossible not to make mistakes.
But with Zhang Xinbao's in-depth reading, he learned in detail the source of increased corn production.
Tianyu No. 1 has a sowing area of more than 200 million acres. Even if there are droughts and floods, the average yield can still be stable at more than 2,500 kilograms!
The sown area has also increased by 16 million acres.
Tianhe’s new variety of silage corn, Tianyu No. 8, has set a super-high yield record of more than 4,100 kilograms per mu by farmers!
Isn’t this silage corn? How come you can still collect so many sticks?
The day's front page headline of the Grain and Oil Market News attracted everyone's attention as soon as it came out.
There is no more terrible bad news than this. The price of corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange plummeted.
Countless funds were liquidated directly, and corpses were everywhere in the market. Because it was so tragic, traders defined this day as the 9.16 Corn Disaster Day.
At this time, the afternoon trading of the Chicago Board of Trade had already ended, and there was less than an hour before the opening of the night session.
But for information transmission, it is enough.
(End of this chapter)