Chapter 347 The future is long
“Boss, do you really want to do crude oil?”
For crude oil futures, Amap has long been looking forward to it and has been paying attention to it, but at this moment, his heart is filled with anger. hesitated.
“Hey, weren’t you and Yang Cheng always trying to get me to pay attention to crude oil futures? How come it’s the end and you backed down instead?”
“Shorting crude oil is different, the trading risks will be higher. "It's very big." Gaode hesitated very much and said: "Less than 4 years have passed since the Z aviation oil incident. The lessons are too profound..."
No matter how profound it is, the same thing will happen again in the future, Guo Yang couldn't help but mutter in his heart.
Zxing Crude Oil Treasure should be called this, right? He couldn't remember clearly, but it happened to be the epidemic at that time, and the financial news was in trouble again.
“I owed the bank 5 million yuan overnight.”
“The whole world ran away, except Z Bank...”
Various true and false news The screen was refreshed, and he also ate a lot of melons.
It's just that for aviation fuel and crude oil, one is short and the other is long, and the latter is obviously more outrageous.
In futures trading, long and short are not equal.
Generally speaking, short selling has two inherent disadvantages. One is the unequal returns.
For example, if the crude oil price rises 10% from 100, it will be 110, but if 110 falls 10%, it will only be 99.
The second is that you may be forced into a position by big funds.
Being forced into a position is also the biggest risk for Jiahe in crude oil futures trading.
When conducting grain futures trading, Jiahe Grain and Oil has already carried out part of the international grain trade.
During the short-selling period, grain was even more cautiously stored at or near futures delivery points such as Singapore.
When short selling comes to the stage of transaction settlement, Jiahe can also take out physical goods for delivery, and the grain is purchased at a low price, so the loss in delivery can be tolerated, and the trading is both conservative and flexible.
However, Jiahe is not engaged in crude oil trading. It is really forced to the delivery day and cannot produce the physical goods. Even if it goes in the right direction, it will eventually be forced to liquidate its position.
The aviation fuel incident in 2004... was short selling, and then the position was forced to be liquidated.
In fact, aviation oil can stop losses as long as it can deliver the contract in time at the beginning, but it chose to extend the contract to 2005 and 2006.
And the order volume of aviation fuel is very large, and every move is under the attention of opponents, and the account has been targeted by the public.
Powerful interests drive more and more opponents to go long in one direction, until the short side closes its aviation fuel position, which is already a bottomless pit.
The result is that since the beginning of 2004, Aviation Oil has been losing money, and then margin calls were made all the way.
At the end of October, the company was forced into a position due to the inability to make a margin call, and the book losses eventually turned into actual losses.
In November, we continued to encounter short positions.
On December 1, filed for bankruptcy protection.
During this period, Aviation Oil had countless opportunities to stop losses, but in the face of the actions of the international consortium, the parties involved may have taken the bait.
After recalling for a while, Guo Yang fell into deep thought.
Grain futures, as long as Jiahe is engaged in international grain trade, it will have to participate in this game.
But crude oil futures... don't have to.
There was a long silence.
Gaode mused: "The crude oil futures market is surrounded by experts. Without confidence and strength, no one dares to make big bets unilaterally, unless there is enough financial resources to defeat all opponents."
"I I never thought about placing a big bet on one side.”
Guo Yang glanced at him angrily, then made tea by himself, and waited for a cup of tea to be consumed before speaking again.
“The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States will soon be unbearable. The market supply and demand relationship will change. It will be a matter of time before crude oil plummets, but the timing is uncertain.”
“If crude oil plummets, The profits from developing bioenergy are not as good as expected, and international grain prices will certainly not be stable.”
“Short selling crude oil is just to share the risk. If the positions are all concentrated on corn, soybeans, wheat and other grains, the risk will be even greater. "High."
"Jiahe doesn't need to charge into the battle. Just build less positions and just treat it as an observation market. It's okay to beat the drowned dog after the trend changes."
After studying for so many days, it is impossible to retreat.
Guo Yang has long understood the risks and will not rush into it, but he does not want to miss this opportunity.
Gaode nodded reassuringly and sipped the tea in a rather elegant manner. As long as he did not place a large bet unilaterally, with Jiahe's strong cash reserves, it would be too difficult to get out of the position.
“The tea brewed by the boss is still delicious.”
“You are poor.” Guo Yang thought for a while and asked: “DaCom and ZhengCom are now actively trading. How is it?”
"Soybean No. 1 and corn contracts are both on the rise." Gaode mused: "But it will take a long time for bargaining power."
Guo Yang smiled: "It is a good thing that the trading volume is active. "
Gaode said: "The United States has increased subsidies for soybeans and corn in disguise. It seems that it is not giving up on the domestic market."
"Everyone will give up." Guo Yangqing. He smiled and said: "But his own domestic production situation has not been solved yet. Relying solely on South American production capacity, his influence is not as good as before."
"This corner still needs to be pried bit by bit."< br>
In the short term, CBOT (Chicago Mercantile Exchange)’s position as the traditional agricultural product pricing center remains difficult to shake.
The development time of Dalian Commodity Exchange and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange for more than ten years cannot catch up with the accumulation of hundreds of years.
Only one thing is that China’s capital and financial accounts have not been liberalized, and the futures market has not yet allowed foreign investors to enter, so the upper limit has been locked.
As for the financial system, Jiahe has not thought about reaching out for the time being.
The current solution is to start from production, reduce dependence on foreign imports, and at least ensure domestic pricing power.
At the same time, Guo Yang was convinced of the destructive power of caltrops and red fire ants, and Lao Mei was not able to control them so quickly.
The next few years will be the peak of destruction.
Its status as a major grain-producing country will definitely weaken, and CBOT's pricing power as an international pricing center will naturally weaken accordingly.
Before the emergence of the futures market, the pricing of international commodities was mainly based on the supply and demand relationship between buyers and sellers.
After the futures market matures, it is no longer limited to buyers and sellers, but reflects the whole society's price expectations for commodities.
Pricing power is to influence prices in a direction that is beneficial to oneself.
Just like domestic soybean processing companies importing soybeans, they generally price them at CBOT through international grain merchants.
As a result, international grain merchants can easily grasp the marked and unmarked positions of domestic buyers, giving overseas funds a natural advantage to force positions.
At the same time, international grain traders have monopolized the global soybean trade.
These grain merchants generally have strong research teams and data collection and compilation capabilities, as well as complete data collection systems and a long history of data collection and compilation.
International grain merchants have collected very comprehensive and detailed information on the growth, yield, output, export, who imports soybeans in North and South America, how much each imports, and the export situation at each port.
There is a serious 'information asymmetry' between domestic buyers and these international grain merchants.
Jiahe’s previous success in stealing chickens also took advantage of information asymmetry, such as domestic production increases beyond expectations and production areas in North America suddenly decreased.
It is almost impossible to have this kind of opportunity again.
Guo Yang and Gaode spent the whole morning talking about crude oil futures, grain production, processing and trade, and edible oil price wars.
These three have a strong correlation in the near future, and strategies for the next six months will be formulated based on this.
Crude oil futures are the weather vane.
Crude oil prices fall - bioenergy demand decreases - grain prices fall;
Domestic planting structure improves - contradictions between domestic procurement and imports - North American production cuts, costs increase...
< br>Various factors are intertwined.
A price war is definitely going to happen, not only for edible oils, but also for soybean meal and concentrated phospholipids!
This is the best time to seize market share and change the import situation.
Force coastal manufacturers to establish domestic soybean purchasing channels. If you insist on purchasing imported soybeans, you will go bankrupt!
……
July 6th.
Weiguang Company and Jiahe Cereals and Oils began to cooperate in establishing short positions in crude oil. Although they were cautious, the rising trend of crude oil did not change.
So as soon as the position was opened, losses occurred.
However, now that the direction has been decided, the traders responsible for the transaction still maintain the speed of opening positions at a regular pace of 5 minutes for each hand and 10 minutes for each hand.
On July 10, the price of crude oil exceeded US$145/barrel, and Jiahe already held a short position of 1,000 lots at this time.
One lot of 1,000 barrels is equivalent to US$145,000, and the average purchase price of Jiahe is US$142/barrel.
After all, in less than 5 days, approximately US$145 million was invested and a loss of approximately US$3 million was achieved.
A short order of 1 million barrels can also attract some attention on the market, but it will never attract siege. Instead, it may be regarded as bait or a test.
However, unexpectedly, more short orders appeared on the market.
Even if Guo Yang is not a professional, he can feel that the upward momentum has come to an end and fluctuates slightly, but he just can't go up.
The short sellers in the market are all as eager to try as he is, but no one dares to jump ahead and can only slowly accumulate short orders bit by bit.
Guo Yang is not in a hurry. Jiahe just wants to get a piece of the market, so let's take it slow and stalemate.
At the same time, in the domestic edible oil market, the price war is still tense, and some small brands have fallen into the corner where no one cares.
In the first few months of this year, soybean and soybean oil futures prices rose almost every day by 200 to 300 yuan/ton, and sometimes even rose by more than 1,000 yuan a day.
With the skyrocketing futures prices, everyone feels that the prices of soybeans and soybean oil will continue to rise, so many manufacturers are hoarding soybeans regardless of cost.
Jiahe Cereals and Oils took advantage of the trend, but then withdrew and started a edible oil price war.
Processing companies began to suffer losses, and then the losses increased.
Some companies that hoard soybeans at high prices are currently losing hundreds of yuan per ton.
…
Guangdong Province, Jiahe Cereals and Oils Dongguan Mayong Factory.
Factory director Lu An has received calls from the group boss in the past two days, asking him to investigate the situation at the nearby grain and oil processing plant.
The last time I met my boss, he came to check the transportation status of the tanker truck out of nowhere.
After so long, the Mayong factory has only made a profit for a short time, and most of the rest of the time it has been a loss.
He has suffered heavy losses recently, but he is very excited.
Because the opponent is also having a hard time.
He has worked in the soybean processing industry in Guangdong Province for many years and is very familiar with the operation of soybean processing plants here.
There was only one oil factory with a processing capacity of 2,000 tons in the Mayong area of Dongguan at the beginning of the century, but in the past few years there have been 10, and there are 13 registered factories in Guangdong Province.
We are all in the same circle and are rivals in the market, but at the information level, peers often communicate with each other.
It’s just that he was the one who was ridiculed the most in the past.
Except for Jiahe, soybeans in Guangdong Province are purchased internationally. In addition to price reasons, logistics is also an important factor.
If you want to transport soybeans from Heilongjiang Province to Guangdong Province, you need to transfer them by train to Dalian and then transfer them by sea to the port of Guangdong Province. The total transportation fee is more than 450 yuan to 500 yuan/t, and the import is 350 yuan. ~500 yuan/t.
In addition, Black Province’s railway capacity is insufficient.
Jiahe also has a soybean base in the southwest, but at this time, the railway transportation capacity from Guangdong Province to the hinterland of the southwest is insufficient...
The soybean purchasing department of other companies, that is, futures trading Department is the most important department of the company. A large amount of the company's funds and profits and losses depend on procurement.
The logistics department can only be ranked second.
As for the Jiahe Dongguan factory, the logistics department is the most important, and the purchasing department ranks second, because logistics determines whether the factory can produce normally... This is unique in Guangdong Province or the country.
In short, Jiahe’s insistence on processing domestic non-GMO soybeans in Dongguan is a very stupid thing in the industry.
Today, Lu An, who was labeled as ‘stupid’, organized a short meeting with the purchasing department. "Within three days, I will ask for the recent soybean shipments from several other soybean processing plants in Guangdong Province."
"Previous data shows that Zhiyuan every two They need to order three ships per month, and Uni-Cargill has one ship per month, but they are expanding and acquiring, and the information is already out of date.” Please inquire specifically for shipping booking information. ”
"Daily processing capacity, incoming shipments, and approximate order time, these data must be verified and updated."
Meng Ruofei, the manager of the purchasing department, and other employees used to have international purchasing experience, but in the past two years, they have switched to With in-house procurement, work is much easier.
But I was also labeled as an alien in the industry, and I felt suffocated for a long time.
Hearing Lu An's arrangement, his heart froze. Meng Ruofei asked: "Boss, are you going to take action on soybean meal?"
Lu An glared at him, "Don't ask around. , don’t talk nonsense when you go out.”
"Oh~~"
Meng Ruofei let out a long oh, feeling like he understood everything. He rolled his eyes and had an idea instantly.
"Boss, you said that when we went to inquire, you deliberately released news that our factory would also change its business thinking and purchase soybeans from overseas. How about it?"
Hearing this, other buyers Instead, he laughed.
“Get out of here, do whatever you want, I don’t care.”
Lu An waved and walked out of the conference room, but kept muttering in his heart that Meng Ruofei had quite an idea and his guess was quite accurate.
The price has increased so much in the early stage, the other 12 stores should have stocked up!
In the conference room, Meng Ruofei assigned specific tasks to the buyers.
There are a total of 12 registered soybean processing factories, but in fact, after several turmoils, Meng Ruofei knows that there are only 4 factions in the factories that are still producing.
Dongguan Zhonggu Fat and Oil from Guofang;
Unify Cargill Dongguan, Cargill (Dongguan), Cargill (Yangjiang); Zhanjiang Huanong acquired by Cargill...
Nantian oil meal held by Yihai Kerry;
Zhizhi, which cooperated with Louis Dreyfus Yuan grease.
So the investigation task is actually not heavy. The oil plant recruits people and will not recruit people from surrounding oil plants. However, the first three factions are involved in acquisitions, and there are people in the purchasing department who came from them.
Only Zhizhiyuan was built in the past two years, and Meng Ruofei left this most difficult bone to himself.
After everyone had left, Meng Ruofei began to sort out Zhi Zhiyuan's information, first calling familiar buyers and futures traders.
But these people still have some professional ethics. After deliberately asking about them, I got nothing from them until they got off work.
Meng Ruofei clicked on Gen Huazi and flipped through information related to Zhi Zhiyuan in the office.
"TMD, if I don't kill you, I won't believe in Meng." Meng Ruofei held a newspaper in his hand, which contained an interview report by Guo Baichun, chairman of Zhizhiyuan.
“Jiahe is a company with no bottom line and ignores the interests of farmers. The ultimate victim of the price war is the soybean farmers.”
Meng Ruofei was so angry that his teeth were itching as he read the article full of condemnations.
Suddenly, the photo of the dock in the newspaper lit up his eyes. Zhiyuan Company was in Pengcheng, and Pengcheng's ocean-going soybean ships usually unloaded at Huangpu Port.
The newspaper looked like it was a self-built berth, obviously not Huangpu Port.
This is easy to verify. Just make a phone call and you will get a definite answer.
Zhizhiyuan has put into operation a new factory with a daily processing capacity of 5,000 tons in the past two years.
However, it was impossible to select a site at the port, so it was finally built next to the Hongqili Waterway in Nansha District, Pengcheng, with a self-built 3,000t/d berth.
The ocean-going soybean ship arrives at Pengcheng Huangpu Port and is then transferred to its own terminal.
The newspaper should be the barge ship.
The publication date is July 5th.
The barge ship is less than 3,000 tons, and the ocean ship is 60,000 to 70,000 tons. It needs to be barged more than 20 times. The port warehouse can store it for 20 days for free...
"Hiss...hoo..."
Smoke filled the air, and Meng Ruofei seemed to know why Guo Baichun was so angry.
From South America to my country, it takes 3 months from the time the deposit contract takes effect until the soybeans are collected and delivered to the port, and the shipping time is 20 to 45 days.
The goods that Zhi Zhiyuan transported were bought four months ago, that is, three months ago by pressing the button.
At that time, the price was about 5,300~5,500 yuan/t.
As Jiahe engaged in a price war, soybean oil prices plummeted, and Zhizhiyuan was also at a loss at the time of the interview.
What we need to check now is how many ship orders Zhizhiyuan has placed in the past few months, and whether there is any possibility of placing orders...
After thinking about it, Meng Ruofei found the direction. .
The next day, I made an appointment with colleagues from the logistics department and went straight to the dock warehouse and found Jiang Dongcai, the director of the port branch.
Tobacco, wine, tea and water fees are free of charge.
"Manager Jiang, we in Jiahe may need to order a few ships of South American soybeans, and we may have to trouble you for loading, unloading, and warehousing at the port."
Jiang Dongcai held his tongue and said, "Don't say that these are not available. Tell me what's going on, your acting skills are a bit poor."
Meng Ruofei smiled and said, "Hey, Manager Jiang has a sharp eye, and he really can't hide anything from you."
" Isn't that nonsense?" Jiang Dongcai said disdainfully: "Your factory is in Mayong, and you come to Huangpu Port to unload the goods?"
Meng Ruofei was not embarrassed at all, "Then I'll tell you the truth. , I would like to know about Xia Zhiyuan’s ordering pattern in the past few months.”
Jiang Dongcai raised his eyebrows, and Meng Ruofei ordered Huazi at the right time.
"Manager Jiang, this matter is nothing to you."
Jiang Dongcai took a bite of the bar and said with a smile: "It's easy to talk about, but you have to help me get it done later. Order your sand sea cistanche."
Meng Ruofei was stunned. Has the news reached Pengcheng?
"No problem, I will see Manager Jiang off for you in the afternoon."
"Just call me Brother Dongcai."
"Okay, Brother Dongcai, where did you know about Shahai Cistanche?"
Jiang Dongcai smiled and said: "A few coals Traders praise it very much. In Guangdong, all coal is imported. The coal used in your crushing plant is also imported from abroad."
Meng Ruofei had to sigh, the circle of coal bosses is really vast. .
After a lot of trouble, Meng Ruofei successfully obtained the data he wanted, and it was not difficult to make further assumptions.
After Zhizhiyuan expanded its production capacity, its daily processing capacity increased from 2,800 tons to 7,800 tons.
The market was very good at the beginning of the year. I ordered 4 shipments in March, 3 shipments in April, 4 shipments in May, and 3 shipments in June. Even in July, I still ordered 4 shipments...< br>
Basically maintain the scale of 7 ships every two months.
When Lu An knew this data, he couldn't help but shook his head, "It doesn't seem to be a big deal to let Guo Baichun curse a few times."
Meng Ruofei sighed: "Zhi Zhiyuan is too stubborn. , other small factories know to limit production and stop production, but it is better for him to bite the bullet and produce at full capacity for the sake of market share.”
"Soybean meal has been rising in the past few months, and has only recently begun to fall. It's just that soybean oil has fallen sharply, and hedging has been done. Zhizhiyuan's strength can indeed support it."
Lu An analyzed it. , said: "But once the capital chain is broken, the result is hard to say."
"What about the other companies?"
"They are all similar." Meng Ruofei said: "Maintain normal purchase. Frequency, they are betting that our logistics and production costs are higher than theirs.”
Lu An: “This is a fact.”
"Can we hold on in Guangdong Province?"
"Are you still used to losing money?" Lu An smiled nonchalantly, "No matter how much we lose, as long as we can play the role of chess pieces, it will be a good loss. .”
…
On July 11, crude oil futures prices reached a record high of $147.27 per barrel.
On July 12, it fell slightly.
On July 13, it continued to fall.
At this time, the soybean import information collected by Jiahe from various places was summarized on Guo Yang’s desk.
Who imports, how much each imports, and the inventory status of each port are listed one by one.
Maybe the situation was better at the beginning of the year and the import pace of large-scale processing companies has not changed, so this matter makes sense.
After looking at the situation for a while, Guo Yang called Gaode and said, "Soybean meal can also be started slowly."
"Yes!" Gao De said loudly.
As soybean meal remained at a high level for a period of time at the beginning of the year and the prices of livestock and poultry end products were low, the breeding industry could only "shrink".
Therefore, the domestic soybean meal market sales did not increase in July, which is the peak season.
The demand for soybean meal is at a low level, and oil and fat factories are in a relatively passive situation, so price reductions are justified.
Jiahe Cereals and Oils seemed to be a catalyst, sounding the clarion call for a major reversal in the international market.
On July 3, soybean meal was quoted at 4,700-4,860 yuan/t in various provinces and cities across the country;
On July 13, the quoted price was 4,600-4,720 yuan/t; within 10 days, the price dropped by about 100-140 yuan/ton.
On the next day, July 14, the quotations for Jiahe Grain and Oil dropped by 100 yuan/ton.
On July 15, it fell by 100 yuan again, reaching 4,400 yuan to 4,500 yuan/t.
On July 16, it dropped by 100 yuan again.
When the market reverses, oil and fat factories are already relatively passive, while feed factories are "daughter-in-laws who have been married for many years", so they can hold the currency to buy and choose the best for use.
What is excellence?
The price and quality are naturally excellent.
During the period when soybean meal was at a high level, feed mills and the animal husbandry industry sought alternatives in many ways. One was fish meal, and the other was high-protein grass meal from alfalfa.
Choosing Jiahe is an easy decision to make.
Jiahe's oil and fat factory even put out a slogan: In the same area, there is no soybean meal that can be cheaper than mine.
Easy oil price reduction promotions in major supermarkets are also coming one after another.
Everyone at Jiahe Cereals and Oils seems to have gone back to the days when they lost 900 yuan from processing a ton of domestic soybeans.
It’s just that the mentality is completely different.
The last time I was beaten passively, watching others eat meat;
This time, he took the initiative to be beaten and even dragged others along with him. Others would even suffer more losses than Jiahe.
For manufacturers who have experienced this kind of loss for the first time, it seems like they are being cut with a dull knife.
By July 16, the reporter visited and found that all small oil plants with a daily crushing capacity of several hundred tons had basically stopped production.
However, small oil factories are more flexible. They made money last year, so they can stop doing it for 2 to 3 years. They can close their doors and wait until the environment improves before doing it.
In order to maintain market share, large oil companies must continue to produce.
Processing plants in Guangdong and Shandong provinces complained in the media that they suffered losses of more than 400 yuan per ton of soybeans processed.
The people at Jiahe Grain and Oil Factory were stunned again after seeing it. We didn’t seem to have lost so much.
However, the speech of Zuo Qing, the technical director of Zhizhiyuan, made people feel difficult to deal with.
“This year’s soybean oil market will clean up the entire industry. No matter farmers, traders, or oil mills, no one will be spared losses.”
“In By the end of the year or next year, more oil mills and traders who import soybeans will collapse, the industry concentration will further increase, and group operations will become more obvious.”
Like Zhiyuan, oil plants controlled by Cargill, Bunge, and Louis Dreyfus also appear confident in facing difficulties.
When Lu An and Meng Ruofei saw this, their hearts froze, but they soon looked at each other and smiled.
After experiencing a loss of 900 yuan or more per ton processed, looking at this again, I can only say that the future is long.
(End of this chapter)