Chapter 349: An era that does not believe in tears; changes in rivers
On August 2, the USDA report came belatedly.
Chen Yanqiu, the international trade director of Jiahe Cereals and Oils, who has been paying attention to the trends in Laos and the United States, immediately relayed the news to Guo Yang and Gaode.
Last year, the total cereal production in the United States decreased by about 15%, but it was still about 390 million tons.
This year, this number has been reduced by about 5% again, with a total output of 370.5 million tons.
This number is actually within the expectations of industry analysts, and the fluctuation range is also within the normal range.
However, the USDA has significantly reduced the ending stocks of soybeans, corn, wheat and other cereals.
At the same time, it also gave its first estimate of the supply and demand pattern of Lao U.S. soybeans in 2008/2009, setting the tone of relatively tight supply and demand for Lao Wheat soybeans this year.
The decline in production is the main factor causing the reduction in ending stocks. Due to the impact of anti-GM weeds and red fire ants, USDA estimates that the annual U.S. soybean production will be 60 million tons, a decrease of 5% compared with last year. It has dropped by more than 20 million tons from the high point two years ago.
Corn is even more shocking, with output of only 220 million tons, a drop of more than 50 million tons compared with two years ago.
But what is even more intriguing is that while lowering its production forecast, the USDA also increased the demand for U.S. soybeans. The global energy shortage will not change the trend of rapid development of bioenergy, and it believes that the global export market is strong.
"Everyone with a discerning eye now knows that the economy is weak and demand is sluggish... This USDA report surprised most analysts!"
Undoubtedly, this report is bullish and is in line with the market today. The situation in which shorts have the upper hand is very different.
“Before this report, many people at home and abroad speculated that the USDA would increase the ending stocks of soybeans due to weak demand, but the result was the opposite. Genetically modified weeds and red imported fire ants in North American production areas are really so bad Awesome? ”
“It stands to reason that even if production is reduced, it is still the world’s major grain producing country, and domestic grain production is also increasing, which can completely offset the production reduction in the United States...”
Guo Yang interrupted Gaode's analysis and said: "Stop analyzing, anyway, this is good for Jiahe."
International grain prices remain high, and the price of imported soybeans is higher than that of domestic soybeans.
The balance of the price war has tilted towards Jiahe.
"I'm just wondering..."
"Maybe it's still a problem with weeds and fire ants." Guo Yang said, "I'm going back to Jiuquan, where will you go next?"
"Northeast, let's check the situation in the soybean producing areas."
Gaode asked: "The boss won't stay in the capital to watch the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games?"
"No, I don't have that intention. Chen Yanqiu, please follow me. The shipping company and shipping agency have only been looking at it for a few months."
"Aqiu can do things with confidence."
Guo Yang nodded and thought about it again. , said: "In addition, the layout of grain and oil processing in third- and fourth-tier cities will be accelerated. Yihai Kerry is faster than us in this regard."
"Well, that is the foundation laid by Yihai Cereals and Oils."
"There is also holding and investing in railway logistics."
"Yes."
"More efforts will be made in research and development. After prompting, overseas sales channels followed suit. "
"..."
…
USDA’s supply and demand report has aroused a lot of discussion at home and abroad.
Reflected on the market, CBOT futures prices rebounded strongly for a while, and then stopped, temporarily stagnant.
This is not good news for grain import and export traders targeting the Chinese market.
In the past two days, domestic traders and processing company owners who use imported soybeans as raw materials have looked sad.
At a real estate press conference in Yanjiao, a provocative reporter asked Shi Kerong a question.
"Mr. Shi, the operating rate of Huifu Cereals and Oils is less than 50%. Will you focus on the development of the real estate market in the future?"
"Can Huifu Cereals and Oils not be able to hold on? Will it? Will be completely discontinued."
"Will this brand disappear?"
Three consecutive questions made Shi Kerong, who was originally happy to sell the house, suddenly turn pale.
It stung him where it hurt.
If the brick factory was his first pot of gold, then Huifu Grain and Oil was where he really started.
Today’s situation is indeed extremely bad.
Zhiyuan is also in a difficult situation like Huifu. The oil and fat factory is severely under-operated, customers are lost, and the management lacks confidence.
Chairman Guo Baichun also mostly appears in other business sectors of his company and rarely shows up at the oil factory.
There are many companies like Huifu and Zhizhiyuan in coastal areas, and the cold of the financial crisis has enveloped them in advance.
The National Grain and Oil Information Center felt that the intensity of this cold wave was not enough, and adjusted the cold wind to the maximum.
Following USDA, the National Grain and Oils Information Center released this year’s soybean production forecast.
The total annual soybean production is expected to reach 44 million tons, compared with 30 million tons in the previous year.
The production has increased by more than 10 million tons for two consecutive years.
However, last year's increase in production was due to an increase in unit yields, while this year's increase is largely due to adjustments in the planting structure.
Last year, domestic corn production exceeded demand by 100 million tons. This year, a large number of farmers switched to soybeans.
The soybean sown area increased from 135 million acres last year to 205 million acres, a significant increase of 70 million acres.
On the contrary, yields increased only slightly.
As soon as this report, which was also deliberately awaited, was released, it almost announced the counterattack of domestic soybeans.
The annual soybean consumption is estimated at 51 to 52 million tons, with the self-sufficiency rate reaching 85%, an increase of 25 percentage points from last year's 60%.
In the first half of the year, domestic soybean imports from South America exceeded 7 million tons.
It is certain that domestic soybean supply will exceed demand in the second half of the year.
The rest is a price war.
However, Lao America does not want to lower prices, but the domestic market is full of confidence, which has almost announced the result in advance.
The editor-in-chief of "Grain and Oil Market News" summarized it in one sentence.
“The frost-free period of the edible oil market is over, and another era of not believing in tears has begun.”
……
North America.
USDA has a total of seven deputy ministers in charge of specific affairs, one executive deputy minister, and one minister.
Freya Carey is one of seven deputy ministers responsible for farm and overseas agricultural services.
There are three departments under his control: Farm Service Bureau, Overseas Agricultural Bureau, and Risk Management Bureau.
It can be said that in the past year or so, all the bad things that have happened in federal agriculture have to go through Freya Kelly.
“Yes, yes, minister, the subsidies for farmers this year will be in place in time.”
“What? We need to increase the aid?”
"What did the president promise to the voters? But there is no such budget. If you think about it again, there is no way!"
Hearing the busy tone on the phone, Freya Kelly couldn't help but spit out the fragrance.
“Fuck!”
“Fuck! These farmers know about the parades and troubles every day. Can the parades and troubles solve the weeds on the farms?”
USDA Why the delay in releasing the report?
It’s because the domestic situation is not good.
Not only did the total yield and yield drop again, but the massive spread of weeds also significantly increased production costs, which was the most fatal.
Roundup herbicide cannot kill the Tribulus terrestris variant, but if weeding is not carried out, the yield will drop significantly.
As for weeding, we can only use mechanical cultivating and other methods to weed. Compared with using herbicides, the cost rises sharply.
Faced with this dilemma, we can only increase subsidies for agricultural products in disguised form.
However, subsidies are not provided casually. They will not only be subject to pressure from the WTO, but also economic pressure.
In this case, the more food prices fall, the greater the pressure on federal agricultural products.
Not only exports, but also other countries’ agricultural products may have an impact on their own markets due to rising costs.
Although the total output of federal agricultural products has been affected, it is still one of the world's major food exporters.
While Freya Kelly was dazed, Hampton from the Farm Service Bureau hurried in.
"Hey, we are in trouble again. Alfalfa farmers in California and Arizona also broke out in violent demonstrations and protests."
"Cuscutus spreads in pastures, the quality of alfalfa declines, and there is no competitive advantage in the export market. Domestic sales It has also caused great harm to the animal husbandry industry..."
After listening for a while, before Freya Kelly could take a breath, Michael Hall from the Risk Management Agency walked in again.
“I also have bad news here. Scientists don’t have a good way to deal with super weeds and fire ants.”
“Shit!” Freya Kelly was angry. He cursed, "Isn't there any good news?"
Both subordinates were silent.
Where does the good news come from?
In the past six months, there has been only one piece of bad news worse than the last.
Flea Kelly also tried to mess things up, but it was the critical period of the general election, and any mistake at this time would be magnified infinitely.
After thinking about it, Freya Carey dialed the number of ADM President and CEO Patricia Wools.
Patricia Wools served as CEO of Chevron, a leading global energy company. After joining ADM, she was named one of the top ten most influential business women in the world.
Is the number one promoter of ADM’s bioenergy strategy.
Wools' brisk voice came, "Hey, Minister Kelly, is there any good news?"
"No, Wools." Kelly sighed: " The situation has not improved. I want to hear ADM’s thoughts.”
After pondering for a while, Wools said: “ADM’s investment in bioenergy will continue.”
Just gone?
Flea asked: "What about the sharp drop in crude oil prices?"
"Aren't there still federal energy subsidies?"
"..."
“What about ADM’s export trade in China?”
"Maybe you should ask Cargill and Bunge." Wools was silent for a while and said: "ADM has established close cooperation with China's largest grain and oil company. Grain production in the Chinese market has exploded. If the country does not introduce more effective subsidies, , ADM is nothing more than a change of investment direction."
Freya had a bad feeling, "What do you mean?"
"The Chinese market now not only has consumption potential, but also has strong consumption potential. production capacity, ADM is considering increasing investment in China."
Freya chuckled, "Okay, then I wish you good luck."
Wools's understatement made her laugh. Freya felt as if she had been punched in cotton.
On the other side, Wools hung up the phone and was not as relaxed as Freya imagined.
ADM is headquartered in North America and its main business is also in North America.
It is the largest soybean crushing and processing plant in the United States, the largest corn additive manufacturing plant, and the second largest flour mill.
The two consecutive years of federal production cuts have significantly affected ADM’s operating performance.
In particular, corn production has been reduced by 50 million tons in two years, which not only affects ADM's bioenergy strategy, but also directly cuts the export trade in half.
The surplus corn production in the United States is only a little over 100 million tons, and now it has been reduced by nearly half, which is really a headache.
As for investment in China... ADM has already invested a lot of money.
It’s just that the trading link was broken. ADM owns 13,000 railway cars, 2,250 barges and 1,200 container cars worldwide, but its acquisition channels in China are poor.
"Success is the national food, failure is the national food..."
Wools looked through the investments in China.
In cooperation with Guofang alone, ADM has invested hundreds of millions of dollars.
Guoliang, ADM, and Wilmar jointly invested in the establishment of Modu Fulinmen Food Co., Ltd.
Guofang has five major refined edible oil production bases.
Tinmen "Beihai", Shandong Province "Yellow Sea", Zhangjiagang "East China Sea", Pengcheng "Dongzhou", and the Guizhou Province "Dahai" under construction.
This coastal layout is for one-time procurement and unloading along the way, which turns into an advantage in procurement costs.
However, ADM only holds 20% to 30% of the shares in each base, but it has a strong say in procurement.
China's soybean processing industry is only one part of ADM's ability to realize profits from international trade.
Others, ADM’s shares in Yihai Group have been transferred, but ADM is still a shareholder of Wilmar International.
But it still focuses on trade...
Although it obviously has strong processing and R&D capabilities, there is only one wholly-owned premix company in China: Aidimeng Animal Health and Nutrition (Dalian).
But now the trade is almost unsustainable.
National grain prices are rebounding... The greater the price difference, the greater the rebound.
Yihai Kerry also has many shares in mainland China, but ADM only holds indirect shares.
After thinking for a while, Wools called her assistant, "Help me make an appointment with China National Grain Group."
The assistant asked: "In what name?"
"ADM agreed to contribute funds to continue cooperation." Wuersi thought for a while and then said: "Help me make an appointment with Guo Guangfeng from Wilmar."
< br>"OK." The assistant said again: "But do we really not respond to shareholders?"
Since the beginning of the year, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)'s performance in the stock market has been declining. , the market value has evaporated by tens of billions of dollars compared to its high point.
“Do you have any idea?”
Faced with Wuersi's glare, the assistant could only turn around and sneak away angrily.
After closing the door, you can still vaguely hear the banging on the table coming from the office.
This old woman has such a bad temper!
Alas, the third quarter report seems to be over!
……
Tuesday, August 5th.
With the Olympic Games approaching, delegations from various countries are arriving one after another, and the attention of the whole country is attracted to the capital.
Guo Yang has returned to Jiuquan in a low-key manner for two days. In addition to still maintaining a high level of attention to Jiahe Cereals and Oils, he also shared some energy in handling the business of other branches.
Every day is basically spent in meetings, listening to reports, and issuing work instructions.
I just resumed exercising in the evening.
During the Olympic Games, the people's enthusiasm for sports is also high. In the ecological park by the river, there is an endless stream of people playing and exercising.
Beside the river and in the park, the rich and diverse vegetation attracts many citizens to stop.
The water of Tuolai River is even more crystal clear, like a bright mirror, with picturesque reflections, and the houses on both sides of the river are well-proportioned.
Whether it is pedestrians who stop to watch or the waterbirds that occasionally pass by the river, they are all affected by this peaceful scene. The whole environment is full of tranquility and harmony.
“The environment of Tuolai River has changed really fast in the past two years, and even the depth of the river has increased a lot.”
"That's right, even if you don't ask how much you spent, the housing prices in the communities around Binhe are rising faster now!"
"I heard that Jiahe has made a lot of efforts."
"Hey, this is all caused by Jiahe. Jiuquan plans to build a global headquarters economy around Jiahe. This environment must be improved."
"That's right, so that when foreigners come in the future, they won't be embarrassed. , I heard from my daughter that foreigners are very particular about these things. The Rhine and Seine rivers are said to be very clean."
Guo Yang, who was resting aside, couldn't help showing a strange expression when he heard this. .
Both rivers are extremely polluted.
The Seine River is also known as the Ganges River in Europe. It is full of humanistic feelings, but it is extremely embarrassing when it comes to the natural environment.
Not to mention compared with the Beida River after treatment, even the Beida River before treatment was far cleaner than the Seine River.
However, at this time, Chinese people still don’t understand Europe and the United States, and they still use filters to view various things.
That’s why there is such a grand Olympic Games.
After exercising for a while, Guo Yang strolled home. Along the way, he met many employees who greeted him.
Some of the first batch of employees assigned to housing in Jiahe Village have already moved in. The community is close to the river and they are enjoying the benefits brought by watershed management.
Guo Yang has seen the photos of the work group’s report.
Both sides of the steep canyon of Jingtieshan Mountain in the upper reaches are sprayed with cold-resistant grasses such as needlegrass, ice wolfgrass, and purple arrow pea.
Plants such as Hanhai kenaf and sea buckthorn also grow on both sides of the river.
Most of the main stream of the Tuolai River is the Gobi Desert. In addition to the land for long-term planning, both sides of the river are basically Jiahe's "Gobi Agricultural Zone".
The landscape dominated by sea buckthorn and Hanhai kenaf has lit up the entire Gobi.
The trees, shrubs and grass communities on the shore block the windy sand on the Gobi Desert, creating a more suitable microclimate environment.
The hygrophytic plant community growing along the waterfront can adapt to the fluctuations of the water surface and ensure the ecological base of the river in both dry and wet seasons.
Below the normal water level are particularly important aquatic plants, which are part of the river biological community and play a role in water purification.
The three of them develop and evolve together. The longer the time, the better the overall environment of Tuolai River.
Then attract animal communities to thrive here, thereby promoting the development of the entire river habitat, and ultimately achieving the fundamental goal of water ecological environment management.
In the section of the river that passes through the city, the natural restoration capabilities of the riverside green space are also strengthened through the creation of waterfront wetland ecological landscapes.
The governance plan is okay.
The only surprising thing is that the natural ecological restoration ability of the river is so fast.
But this place is closer to Jiayuguan. In terms of ecological environment management, Jiayuguan is just a few streets behind Jiuquan.
Even if there is Jiahe in Jiuquan, it cannot change this ending.
Jiayuguan can also take advantage of Jiahe.
"It's fast enough, it's fast enough. If we don't compare with Jiayuguan, we are just a bunch of lunatics, as if we can't be happy unless we press the Jiuquan."
The next day, Guo Yang When he and Qin Lijun inspected the ecological management results of Beidahe, Qin Lijun was very satisfied with the current situation.
"Hey, Boss Guo, you have been traveling all over the country for the past six months. I don't know how satisfied the citizens are with Beidahe now. There is an endless stream of people walking along Binhe Road every day."
"I saw it yesterday. "Guo Yang said with a smile: "However, the few pieces of land left by the city near Nanbinhe West Road have not been developed and are still deserted."
"Jinyu Park is slightly better, but there is only one nearby. Blank."
"..."
After thinking for a while, Qin Lijun cried out in pain.
"The pieces of land south of Binhe West Road are reserved for building resettlement housing, but the city's finances cannot transfer it. It will have to be delayed for a few years. This is a long-term plan."
Guo Yang said: "Can Can’t we find a way to cover it with green? It’s not pleasant to look at the deserted desert.”
“Where does the money come from?”
“This is also part of the watershed management.” br>“What does this have to do with anything.”
Guo Yang said plausibly: "Look, in addition to the melting of ice and snow and atmospheric precipitation, groundwater is also an important part of the main supply of Tuolai River runoff."
"Especially in late winter and early spring, the river is partially frozen , groundwater is the main source of supply, and surface ecology is very important at this time."
Qin Lijun: "This is the reason, but there is no money."
"Sewage treatment plant. , Beida River management, two parks, water-saving fallow subsidies in the Shule River Basin, and other infrastructure projects, the city has been hollowed out this year. "
"What about next year?" Guo Yang said: "It's actually not complicated. Just dig a shallow trench and sprinkle the seeds."
"What about giving it to Alfalfa?"
"Don't you have no money?"
"I owe it first." Qin Lijun said, "Are you still afraid that I won't pay you the money I owe?"
>
“…”
Guo Yang silently, if it were fifteen years later, I would be really afraid that you wouldn’t pay the money you owed.
"Okay, let's not dig trenches, just sow some seeds."
Qin Lijun: "..."
Qin Lijun didn't want to get entangled in this issue, so he changed the subject and asked Jiahe Cereals and Oils, which has frequently appeared in financial news during this period.
Nothing else, just out of curiosity.
After all, such a huge competition, coupled with the expected decline in the global economy, even Jiuquan is feeling the chill, and more migrant workers are returning home early.
Guo Yang briefly talked about Jiahe's strategy and the domestic competition situation.
Except for Yihai Kerry, which has a preemptive layout in third- and fourth-tier cities, Guo Yang tactically defied other opponents one by one.
"Leader, the advantage lies with me."
"What you have to consider now is to get more railway planning, and then try to start construction as early as possible and complete it as soon as possible."
Qin Lijun also I really started thinking about it.
In fact, Guo Yang is not so relaxed on the surface. There is still a little pressure.
Strategically, we have the upper hand, but execution is also very important.
International grain merchants are not stupid. The way to export to China is broken, but importing from China and then exporting to other parts of the world is also a way.
And these international grain merchants, except ADM and Marubeni, others such as Cargill, Louis Dreyfus, and Bunge all have a certain foundation in China.
For example, Louis Dreyfus, which is good at trade, sells corn from the northeast and northwest to the south and southwest. It is also the largest cotton exporter to China.
In the past, domestic export business of wheat, rice, sugar and livestock products mainly cooperated with Louis Dreyfus.
In addition, Louis Dreyfus's oil processing capabilities along the coast are also not weak.
There is trading, processing, and all kinds of businesses. Louis Dreyfus is like a catfish.
Even the organic soybeans and soy products of Jiahe and Jiusan are sold to Europe through Louis Dreyfus.
Cargill is no less generous.
In addition to its main fields of grain export and oil processing, Cargill also has certain competitiveness in animal nutrition, commonly known as feed.
However, Cargill has only been doing B2B, and its feed competitor is New Hope, with a market share of less than 1%.
After analysis, these grain merchants have been interrupted from export trade, but their processing capabilities are still there.
As long as we concentrate on processing domestic soybeans and invest in domestic logistics, purchasing and storage trade, we can still survive.
There is only ADM, the national grain needs to be betrayed, the export trade has been lost, and physical investment is seriously insufficient...it is also the number one player in bioenergy investment in Laos and the United States.
Guo Yang watched the price of crude oil futures drop to $115, pleased with both ADM's plight and the gains on the futures.
At the same time, I can’t help but worry about whether the coal boss will betray him.
(End of this chapter)