Chapter 370 Stop it!
That night, Guo Yang noticed an important reason for the rapid spread of the fire: drought.
This factor that has been ignored may be the biggest obstacle to energy forests this spring.
Early the next morning, Guo Yang came to Ning Xiaojing, "How long has it been since it rained in the north?"
"I'll check right away."
"Well, we need to check the areas of Wenguan Guan and Jatropha, and also notify the base below."
Ning Xiaojing was obviously unprepared, nodded, and turned around to make arrangements.
In the financial market in the morning, CF903 was still active, with prices jumping up and down. Guo Yang didn’t pay much attention to it. He put some slack this week, and next week will be the time to counterattack.
From the perspective of the short sellers, the main bulls are somewhat weak, perhaps due to the impact of the fire last night?
In short, the bears are a little eager to try.
When it was approaching 11 o'clock, Ning Xiaojing also brought over the latest weather data.
“Currently there has been no rainfall in Wuwei, central and eastern Longxi, and Longdong for two months, and there is a certain degree of drought.”
“There is a slight drought in Yun Province, and there is no drought in Guizhou for the time being. , the overall situation in the project area is still relatively good.”
“However, some wheat areas in North China, Mongolia and Shanxi provinces have been severely affected. The National Defense Administration launched a Level I drought emergency response 6 days ago, which was the first time in my country. Initiate level I drought emergency response. "
"In addition, in addition to wheat, the forest areas in the north are also severely affected by drought, but it has not spread to the northwest."
Guo Yang tapped his fingers on the table habitually, "Let all departments and bases come up with a charter to deal with drought."
"If the tree planting progress is delayed due to lack of water this spring, or large areas die, , the person in charge submitted his resignation report himself!”
Some droughts can be avoided with effective measures, so Guo Yang said something serious.
“Especially in the hot dry valley area in the southwest, where a river as big as the Jinsha River is right next to it, there must be a solution, and the same is true in Guizhou Province.”
After Ning Xiaojing left, Guo Yang suddenly thought of the eucalyptus trees in Guangxi Province again.
He has learned about Sufeng Eucalyptus during this time, and there is no saying on the Internet that eucalyptus is a 'dead tree'.
There is no argument that pumping large amounts of groundwater will damage the ecological environment.
The public lacks understanding of Sufeng Eucalyptus. In fact, its contribution to economic development cannot be denied.
Our country is a country with a shortage of timber resources. The supply of timber has been in short supply for a long time. Every year, we need to spend a lot of money to import a large amount of timber from abroad.
Eucalyptus Sufeng alleviates this problem to a certain extent.
However, fast-growing eucalyptus does have many disadvantages. Large-area eucalyptus planting will lead to the continuous degradation or even extinction of native species. Plant pumps are not blown out.
However, how did it become a household name in later generations?
Guo Yang thought of drought.
Climate-induced droughts have attracted widespread attention from society, and then attention has been paid to the existence of Eucalyptus fulvae.
This is a very reasonable explanation.
In my impression, the southwest region has indeed experienced droughts in recent years, and the neighboring Guangxi Province may also have experienced droughts.
“We have to be on guard!”
“Yun Province and Gui Province both belong to mountainous areas where large-scale tree planting has occurred, and the construction of water lifting projects and supporting facilities has been accelerated.”
"The drought is either this year or next year."
Guo Yang made a note in his notebook and planned to bring it up at the next meeting.
February is mainly about various preparations. On the one hand, I am busy preparing for spring plowing, and on the other hand, I am busy preparing for tree planting. There are really a lot of various things to do.
For three days, Guo Yang inspected seeds, agricultural machinery, pesticides, organic fertilizers, etc. in various places, and made timely adjustments if there were any problems.
On February 15, Luo Potassium’s general manager Zhou Weiliang and vice president Li Shoujiang both visited Jiahe.
Signed a deepening strategic cooperation agreement with Denong Agricultural Materials, and also had some exchanges on the second phase of water supply and production capacity improvement.
At the end of the exchange, Guo Yang hosted a banquet for Luo Potassium and his party in a small square on the Gobi Desert at night.
A group of people chatted around the campfire.
Zhou Weiliang said: "Looking back now, Denong's agricultural materials were the biggest winner in the potash fertilizer circulation market last year!"
"Some people hoarded them in the first half of the year, which led to everyone in the end. No need to eat.”
Due to the snowstorm, Denong emptied all the potassium fertilizer it had stocked before the snowstorm last year, and there was no supply until Luo potassium was put into production at the end of the year.
So, he is not aware of the changes in the potash fertilizer market in the second half of last year.
Guo Yang smiled and said: "The circulation link is definitely not as profitable as the production link."
"It's hard to describe in one word." Zhou Weiliang said: "Last year's market could be described as a mid-air twist followed by a high-level dive."
"No. After receiving the goods from Denong, the price of imported potash fertilizer has risen to 7,000 yuan/ton, and the price of domestic potash fertilizer has been 4,700 yuan/ton.”
“Many circulation companies are reluctant to sell and do not put the goods on the market in time.”
"As market demand weakens in the second half of the year, there is a serious backlog. The current domestic potash fertilizer inventory reaches more than 6 million tons."
"Imported white potash is now 4,000 yuan/ton, and domestic potassium fertilizer is about 2,700 yuan/ton, but it is still expensive and unmarketable."
Guo Yang looked at Yuan Wenwu who was accompanying him, who was still eating. Barbecue, suddenly felt a lot of eyes on him.
Yuan Wenwu was a little dumbfounded. He just ate a few bites of meat and everyone stared at him.
Racking his brains, Yuan Wenwu said: "Denong did not sell much potassium fertilizer in the second half of the year. Most of them were organic fertilizers and nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers. The main reason was that there was no supply of potassium fertilizer."
Of course, also It has something to do with the fact that the market is ruined and Denong is unwilling to buy large quantities of goods.
Guo Yang took the words with a smile, "It's good now. With Luo Ka's support, Denong can reach a higher level."
Zhou Weiliang smiled helplessly and stopped holding back, " In fact, Jiahe’s potassium salt development in Laos does not need to be so urgent.”
“The existing production capacity, coupled with imports, will definitely exceed demand in the next few years, and Laos does not have a cost advantage.”
Guo Yang also knew the other party's worries.
“It’s still early for Laos’ potassium salt production to be officially put into production, and the market may not necessarily be directed towards the domestic market, which will certainly not affect the cooperation with Luo Potassium.”
"I hope so." Zhou Weiliang said leisurely: "Actually, Zhejiang Agricultural Materials has also contacted Luo Ka before."
Yuan Wenwu's heart froze, and the barbecue that was about to enter his mouth no longer smelled good.
Guo Yang knew about this. After all, Jiahe was the second shareholder of Luo Potassium, and there was no chance for Zhejiang Province’s agricultural supplies.
But since Zhou Weiliang mentioned it, it means that Luo Ka is very concerned about Jiahe's investment in Laos.
After thinking about it, Guo Yang smiled and said: "Mr. Zhou, the demand for potassium fertilizer will be huge in the future. Luo Potassium is a gold mine with daily profits. Opening mines in Laos is also a response to the country's call."
"Haha, of course it is."
Li Shoujiang on the side also said: "Mr. Guo, we have to start greening Jiahe in Lop Nur Town. Jiahe is preparing to plant trees in the Milan River Basin."
"Don't worry, Mr. Li, I will return you a Lop Nur oasis in a few years."
Suddenly, the atmosphere became better.
At least for a few years, there will be no conflicts between the two parties.
…
The next day, Monday.
Guo Yang asked Denong about its total fertilizer sales last year, which was more than 2.2 million tons.
There is still a long way to go before reaching the 3 million tons target for the first echelon.
“Damn, Yuan Wenwu ate so much barbecue last night, how could he eat it?”
Thinking about Yuan Wenwu's eating appearance last night, Guo Yang was a little angry and didn't know to leave the roasted lamb chops to him.
“However, the sales volume of organic fertilizers is quite good.”
“This year’s production target of 20 million tons will definitely meet internal demand.”
Looking for a while Guo Yang paid attention to CF903 again.
Last week Jiahe released the water, CF903 fell from 14105 to 12930, a drop of 1175 points, of which the main decline came before Wednesday.
On Thursday and Friday, Jiahe took action again, keeping the price at around 13,000.
If you are cautious and choose to close your position and stop loss at this time, you will avoid the subsequent rise.
However, it may be that after a weekend of fermentation, short sellers have raised funds again, causing the market's bearish sentiment to remain unabated.
Continue to decline after opening.
However, Guo Yang knew that this situation would not last any longer.
Around ten o'clock, the trading team composed of Weiguang and Jiahe Cereals and Oils began to attack and bought a large number of CF903 contracts.
When Jiahe attacked, the short sellers who were full of momentum one second seemed to smell bloodshed the next moment.
…
Magic City.
The same diving board after the opening made Liam look confident.
"Look, Rick, the market is firmly under our control. Jiahe is just a paper tiger. How can it compare to us in terms of capital."
Rick was also in a good mood. He dropped more than 1,000 yuan in a week, and he didn't even look decent. The resistance of Louis Dreyfus significantly reduced its floating losses.
Rick said: "Jiahe is still very strong and controls the upstream and downstream of China's soybean industry chain. It may be because of too frequent expansion, which has led to financial constraints."
This week, in order to be safe, , Rick collected a lot of information about Jiahe.
The more you learn, the more surprised you become.
Seeds, pasture, dairy, agricultural machinery, pesticides, chemical fertilizers, grain and oil, feed...
The complete agricultural industry chain is no less than that of any major international grain merchant, or even more complete, because among the grain merchants only Jiahe There are farm machinery.
The reason why Louis Dreyfus is determined to continue short selling is because Jiahe has made too many foreign investments recently.
At the same time, Jiahe also purchased hundreds of thousands of tons of cotton on the market at high prices, which consumed at least two to three billion in cash.
Liam was a little disdainful, "Then he is a fat tiger raised in captivity."
"The rapid expansion in the past two years and frequent large investments have not only drained his funds, but also made him bloated, like a fat sheep waiting to be slaughtered."
Rick smiled, "So we Only then can we enjoy this feast."
"This is natural," Liam said, "But I am also curious about how Louis Dreyfus and other grain merchants fell into Jiahe's hands before."
“His boss doesn’t look very smart, and some investments are hard to understand.”
Rick said: “Who knows, I’m only in charge of cotton.”
"Deserts, wetlands, rivers, bioenergy." Liam continued to mock: "Maybe international environmental organizations should give him an award."
"Champion of the Earth?"
"Of course, Jiahe But after paying tens of billions of yuan for this, why not?"
"Hahaha..."
"Fuck!"
"Boss! No, something happened on the board!"
Two urgent calls made Rick and Liam's laughter stop abruptly, and their eyes quickly returned to the board.
I saw that a time-sharing Yang line has been hung up.
In just a few seconds, the number of contracts purchased was still rising at an alarming rate.
A huge number of buy contracts emerged, and short positions were eliminated in seconds. In a few minutes, CF903 was pulled from a sharp drop to hitting the daily limit.
And all are large orders of 500 lots!
At the current price, one order is 500*12900=6.45 million yuan.
And not only CF903, but also other contracts have experienced changes!
Every time you place an order, you are subject to the upper limit of 500 lots, and the posture is like a hungry tiger pouncing on food.
“Quick, open a short order!” “Open a short order!”
The two immediately issued the order without hesitation. In fact, the trader had already taken action when there was any abnormal movement on the market.
But the opponent’s tactics are too fierce!
Even though LDC and ICAM traders are constantly selling in the market, there may even be other shorts selling.
But this time the bulls are coming fiercely, no matter how many orders you have, swallow them all in one go!
Not even a second of hesitation.
“Continue to open short orders!”
Liam’s right hand was propped on the desk, his left hand had been clenched into a fist nervously, and sweat was unknowingly soaked in his palm.
He looked at Rick, who was also staring at the board.
For nearly two hours, the trading volume of multiple cotton futures contracts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has been rising rapidly.
100,000 lots!
200,000 lots!
500,000 lots!
One million lots!
Even though they are used to big winds and waves, the trader, Rick, Liam and others were all dumbfounded!
Profits in the past week have once again retraced sharply in an instant.
“Jiahe takes action again?”
“Do they still have money?”
“Fuck! How is that possible!”
As of midday, the transaction was completed The volume reached 1.2 million lots, a huge amount of more than 1.5 billion, the closing price rose sharply, and CF903 was firmly sealed at the daily limit.
Medium and long-term contracts such as CF905, CF907, CF909, CF911 and even CF101 also couldn't bear the loneliness and rose sharply one by one.
The long-short battle in cotton futures is like a dazzling beacon in this sluggish market, attracting the attention of countless people.
Many people are staring at this anxious situation.
From the current point of view, the bulls are well prepared and have the advantage, but the bears are not without resistance.
Some financial media are already paying attention to who are the main players on both the long and short sides. In China, it is not difficult for these people to check.
One noon is enough.
The bulls are led by Jiahe Cereals and Oils, and the bears are led by Louis Dreyfus, Icam, and Zheshang.
1 vs. 3, still have the upper hand.
This is certainly good news for cotton farmers who are paying attention to this war, and it is also good news for short sellers who believe that domestic cotton prices have been deliberately suppressed.
In the trading room, Liam punched the sofa angrily, "Damn it!"
"It would be abnormal if Jiahe just closed the position and stopped the loss." On the contrary, Rick, who was dragged into the situation, calmed down first.
“Liam, how much capital and room does Ikam still have to add?”
Liam also knew that he was a little out of control, so he took a few deep breaths and said, “At most, I can add more. A deposit of more than 200 million.”
“It’s a bit small!”
“No way, I was fighting alone last week.” Liam asked as calmly as possible: “Look now. Yours, Rick, I know LDC has the bank’s backing.”
Rick mused: "Louis Dreyfus can add about 1.2 billion."
"That's enough." Ickham said: "As long as the market sentiment is suppressed, Jiahe will not be able to succeed."
The price range of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures is plus or minus 4%. The initial margin is 5% of the contract value, but the margin is not static.
The exchange will adjust the margin ratio based on market price fluctuations, contract period, exchange regulations and other factors.
Sometimes in order to prevent short squeezes, exchanges will specifically increase the margin ratio, which will put increasing financial pressure on both long and short parties.
After entering the delivery month, in order to ensure smooth delivery, the margin ratio will be increased to 50%.
So, the closer to the delivery date, the closer the prices of futures and spot will be.
Today, with less than ten trading days until the delivery month, the CF903 margin ratio has been increased to 20%.
Meaning that the maximum leverage is only 5 times.
CF905 has also increased to 12%, and only the margin ratio for medium and forward contracts is lower.
The confrontation between the two sides mainly focused on contracts 903, 905, and 907.
After some analysis, Liam said: "So, Jiahe is one to many, and we have the financial advantage."
Rick frowned, and reason told him that he could not increase his position any more. Measured, the current spot can no longer hedge risks.
But there is still a maximum of 1.5 billion in funds that have not been disbursed.
To surrender like this and leave with a loss, he must be unwilling to accept it. This will nail him to the pillar of shame.
After hesitating, he nodded.
He also didn’t believe how much money Jiahe could still spend.
In the afternoon, cotton futures remain the focus.
Some financial media were ready to write articles, and the facts did not disappoint them.
The confrontation between long and short was still fierce in the afternoon, but the bulls still had the advantage, and CF903 was still blocked
Multiple contracts hit their daily limits, with a daily volume of more than 2.5 million lots, exceeding more than 30 billion yuan in a single day.
The financial media are excited!
How dazzling this is in today’s sluggish financial market!
Especially among the two sides fighting, one is one of the four major grain merchants who are one of the most famous in the world.
National enterprises are fighting against foreign capital, some financial media have shouted such slogans.
But the short-selling forces used their mouthpieces to speak down on Jiahe.
“Louis Dreyfus + Icam + Zhejiang merchants + multiple investment institutions have joined forces, how strong is the financial strength?”
“In the past few years, Louis Dreyfus has already I am accustomed to domestic trading habits and have benefited a lot in the past two years.”
“It is reported that Louis Dreyfus has domestic foreign banks providing low-interest loans.”
“On the contrary. , In the past few years, Jiahe has frequently made large investments, its cash flow is not promising, and the prospects of the industries it invests in are also unclear.”
…
At night, when Guo Yang saw such news, he couldn’t help but mourn for the stubborn short seller.
Jiahe does not need a loan.
Just the amount of cash in hand is enough to make people question their life.
Guo Yang doesn’t fight without any certainty, so for this cotton operation, he approved a total quota of 20 billion for Jiahe Cereals, Oils and Shiguang.
Half of it was prepared for the purchase of cotton, and only a quarter was spent.
The other half of futures, plus leverage, is equivalent to hundreds of billions of funds, and the remaining funds in spot can still be supported at any time.
What matters is a horizontal push and crushing!
One characteristic of futures is to kill your opponent!
The profit from futures is to kill the opponent, so when the price goes up like crazy, there is no need to talk about short selling.
After Monday's test, the two sides continued to fight fiercely in the following week.
But the ending is the same every day.
CF903 is no surprise, hitting the limit continuously, and other contracts are still following the same script, rising all the way.
The shocking changes caused investors to flee in panic, and many people’s assets were wiped out instantly.
The bulls are crushing again!
Long capital, which had been suppressed for a long time, followed suit and ignited the entire market.
The world has been suffering from short positions for a long time!
In just one week, the cotton market sentiment quickly turned from bear to bull.
——
Last week, Zhengzhou cotton futures traded 14.72 million lots, the highest weekly trading volume in history. Positions increased by 98,000 lots to 693,000 lots, setting a record high. After a sharp drop in cotton prices, market funds changed, indicating the huge differences between the long and short parties on the market.
In just one week, the market was full of blood and devastation. Compared with the pace of women with small feet in the stock market, the futures market was really a heroic act of killing people.
The above is from Sina Finance report - "Short-term funds bargain hunting and domestic cotton futures stage a long-short war."
——
According to the reporter’s understanding, the US cotton production announced in USDA’s monthly global cotton supply and demand report has been reduced for four consecutive months. The main reason for the decline in output is that the yield of old American upland cotton has declined, and the quality has also been affected.
At the same time, domestic manufacturers are in a buying mood, and they are seizing cotton from cotton farmers at high prices.
——
Affected by this, cotton futures prices continue to rise both internally and externally, and cotton farmers are no longer reluctant to sell and are actively preparing for planting.
The above comes from financial news reports.
After reading a few news articles, Guo Yang felt a little sad and prepared to wash up and go to bed.
Suddenly, I saw an advertisement on the Sina homepage - Altai Passionate Fishing Competition, who will win the tens of millions of grand prizes throughout the year?
Good guy!
Guo Yang was stunned. If Sina could receive Jiahe's advertisement, it would be promising.
Shouldn’t NetEase and Tencent be linked to this?
Guo Yang clicked in and took a look. At a glance, he could see the clear and ethereal photos of Xiangyang Lake, and there was also a picture of a meter-sized pike caught with a lure.
Then the text introduces the entire event in detail.
The general meaning is that it will last throughout the year, with various large-scale fishing competitions continuing, and domestic and foreign masters will be invited.
Mainly fishing with lures.
The most attractive thing is the bonus of the event, the highest reaching 5 million.
The smallest prize is 500,000, and it is also the most recent, hand-pole ice fishing, on 3.1 days.
“Not bad.”
Guo Yang commented, "This is the first competition and it is ice fishing. It should not attract too many experts. You can try it."
For two days on the weekend, Guo Yang and Luo Xiu drove to the countryside. .
While driving, you can enjoy the scenery at the foothills of the Qilian Mountains and learn about the preparations for river management in various places.
And the next week.
The domestic cotton futures market is still active, the short sellers are making their final struggle, and the cotton futures market has lost the momentum of last week's surge.
Even as some long speculators closed their positions and took profits, it quickly fell back to around 15,300.
Because next month is the delivery month.
Accounts that are not qualified for delivery will be forcibly liquidated!
The bulls are closing their positions with a smile, and the shorts are closing their positions with tears.
But there are also those who grit their teeth and hold on.
Rick and Liam also got into a dispute, and not all the funds in Louis Dreyfus' hands were used up.
Liam's eyes were red from staying up late. Staying up late for a long time made his face haggard and his voice almost hoarse.
“There is still time, why should we stop trading?”
“Why, Rick!”
Rick is helpless, no matter what happens to Louis Dreyfus in the current situation No matter how you choose, you can't avoid huge losses.
The previous low was hit to 10,500, and now it is 15,300, with a maximum loss of 4,800 yuan per lot.
Louis Dreyfus' current position is close to 300,000 lots, with a loss of at least one billion.
Even if Louis Dreyfus has 600,000 tons of cotton in stock, and the average purchase price is 2.5 yuan/jin, there will be a floating profit of more than 600 million yuan based on the current futures price, but the loss after hedging is nearly 500 million yuan.
And Ikam will only be worse, and those short speculators will be equally miserable.
One mistake will lead to eternal hatred!
"There's no point in struggling anymore, Liam."
"Look at this market, it is clear that the market sentiment is high, but it cannot go up. It has pulled back a little, but it has always been hovering on this line. ”
“I would rather sacrifice more profits than let the price go out of control. I just want stability. The opponent’s funds are unfathomable.”
“No chance.” >"Stop it, Liam!"
(End of this chapter)