Chapter 371 Louis Dreyfus surrendered
Exhaustion spread from my heart.
Staying up late for two consecutive weeks made Liam feel deeply powerless, as if even his thinking had become slow.
“How much money will I lose by closing my position?”
Hearing this, the trader couldn’t help but tremble, and cold sweat broke out on his forehead in the middle of winter.
Two minutes, or maybe five minutes, the trader gave the answer.
"The current position is about 210,000 lots. If we close the position now, the average loss per lot will be about more than 3,800 yuan, and the total loss will be about 800 million yuan."
Liam's full body portrait was taken. After exerting his strength, his spirit suddenly became sluggish and he almost fell to the ground.
Rick quickly supported him and asked: "How many goods in Ikam can be physically delivered?"
"Haha." Liam laughed miserably, "Only 5 Thousands of tons.”
"You're crazy!"
Rick finally understood why Liam was so out of control. 50,000 tons can only offset a loss of 50 million yuan at most.
This means that once the position is closed, Icam’s actual loss will reach 750 million yuan.
This is even higher than Louis Dreyfus’ losses!
“That’s why we have to fight for our lives!” Liam’s eyes were wild, like a crazy gambler, “You will help me, right? Rick, we still have at least 3 trading days. time, even entering the delivery month is not a bad idea.”
Entering the delivery month means that margins will increase significantly and financial pressure will increase.
Rick shook his head, "Louis Dreyfus won't take this risk, and you probably won't have the chance, Liam."
"What do you mean?" Liam He was stunned for a moment, his scarlet eyes fixed on the board.
Rick glanced at Liam. Louis Dreyfus could bear the current loss. This was also the first time that the China branch had operated 600,000-ton futures.
And there are no violations in the operation, just some marginalia, so he can still cope with his troubles.
But Liam was different.
I only have 50,000 tons of cotton on hand, but I dare to place more than 200,000 short orders in the futures market, which is equivalent to 1 million tons of cotton.
There must be some violations.
This poor risk management will bury Liam!
This man is hopeless.
With pity in his eyes, Rick said: "Wall Street has paid attention to the situation in China."
Liam was in disbelief, "What did you say?"
Rick shook his head. , "Do you think you need me to say it? Last week, Zheng Mian's position exploded to nearly 700,000 hands, and it exceeded 1 million hands in the past two days. Now the financial markets around the world are paying attention to China's movements."
"Ikham won't let you continue." Rick laughed at himself: "You should get a call soon."
"What are you going to do?"
< br>
After thinking for a while, Rick was about to answer when there was a knock on the door, and then the door was pushed open.
Several elites in suits and ties filed in, led by a somewhat stout white man with sharp eyes.
"Liam, I've taken over your job."
Liam was ready to answer the phone, but he didn't expect someone to show up directly in the trading room. He was a little He slumped down on the sofa slumped.
"What are you going to do, Blake?"
Blake ignored Liam, whose eyes were wandering and losing his mind. He looked sideways at Rick.
“There is no way around it.” Rick shook his head for the first time today. “Foreign banks have many restrictions in China.”
“And the exchanges and supervision have already been in place. There is no point in increasing the margin ratio and continuing to fight."
Blake asked the same question, "What is Louis Dreyfus going to do?"
There was silence in the trading room for a while. Smell, only the disk is still beating.
"We admit defeat." Rick said: "Negotiate with Jiahe and ask them to let us go."
Blake thought for a while, "There are still more than ten days before the delivery date. Now go to the market to buy cotton. Is it too late for delivery? "
"I tried it," Rick said helplessly: "The early cotton price was too low, China launched a purchasing and storage policy, and later Jiahe made large-scale purchases, and the market met the delivery standards. The cotton is gone."
Blake was surprised, "Are you not afraid of Jiahe's physical delivery?"
"Jiahe is really good at it, but it won't be easy to deal with afterward. "Rick forced a smile, "This is our only basis for negotiation."
It was quiet for a while.
“Let’s go together and beg it to let us go.”
Liam raised his head and wanted to say something, but dropped it weakly.
……
Zhejiang Province, Yongan Futures Trading Room.
"Fuck, why can't you get down?"
"Where's the main force? Come out and work!"
At this moment, Ge Guodong, assistant to the general manager, rushed in in a hurry.
“There is news that Louis Dreyfus and Icam have admitted defeat and are already looking for Jiahe agreement to deliver, and may close their positions soon.”
The exchanges in the trading room suddenly stopped. Stop.
The news was too shocking, like a bolt from the blue, but everyone knew that Ge Guodong would not joke about it at this time.
After a while, General Manager Zhu Dachang asked: "Confirmed?"
"Nine times out of ten." Ge Guodong said: "The news came from the exchange."
At this moment, someone pushed in the door again, and everyone in the room looked at it.
“Chairman!”
"Chairman, why are you here?"
"If I don't come, will you be in trouble?"
Chairman Huang glanced at everyone present one by one and made contact with them The person is somewhat guilty.
“Close the position.”
The businessmen who had invested were dissatisfied and shouted: “We have lost so much, how can we just close the position like this!”
"You can wait!"
Director Huang ignored him and walked towards the trading terminal equipment in the trading hall. The trader was still staring at the market.
“What’s there to see?”
“They let the water go and they didn’t force the position with all their strength. Why don’t they run away now and wait?”
“I really want to. Come on, you guys have already been sold out. Do you have any cash in hand?”
The speculative boss retorted: "Whoever is shorting actually buys spot goods, then why do we need futures?"
"That's all." Director Huang shook his head and said: "This week is The last chance, when we enter next month, no matter how much money is available, people will be afraid of pure speculation like you?” He said as if: "This is illegal manipulation of the market!"
"You know who violated the regulations." Chairman Huang said disdainfully: "Do you think others really can't eat millions of tons of cotton?"< br>
“Impossible, absolutely impossible.” The bosses collapsed collectively, “That’s billions or tens of billions of funds!”
"The exchange sent a letter to Jiahe, and Jiahe responded that it can issue warehouse receipts for 1 million tons or even 2 million tons at any time!"
"But can you come up with so much cargo for delivery?"
< br>When Chairman Huang said this, he couldn't help being shocked by this courage again.
Now there are not so many goods in the futures trading warehouse of the Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange.
Major factories are also rushing to grab goods on the market, and the cotton spot market has become very tight for a while!
"Now Jiahe controls the price at around 15,000, just to maintain the stability of the cotton market. Do you think you really want to let you go?"
"To tell you the truth, Jiahe really paid attention to Louis Dreyfus' negotiation with Jiahe. It’s Louis Dreyfus’s 600,000 tons of cotton.”
“Just take care of yourself.”
Chairman Huang turned his back and said to Ge Guodong and others: “Always pay attention to the risk and fail to add in time.” Margin, or failure to submit warehouse receipts, will be liquidated according to the rules."
With his instruction, the Zhejiang business representatives represented by Yongan Futures were completely unable to sit still.
"How much room do we still have to add to the position?"
"The risk level has exceeded 93%." The trader replied: "It has entered the warning line, and the current loss from closing the position is about 140 million."
Ge Guodong said indifferently: "There is not much time left for you."
…
For three consecutive days on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, both the bulls and the bears suddenly became quiet. .
Only over one million cotton positions remained, and the cotton futures market suddenly became turbulent.
It was not until after the market closed on Thursday night that multiple financial news media reported that the tip of the iceberg was finally revealed to the public.
Sohu Finance’s comments today: Fight against foreign capital! Cotton futures squeeze event, foreign investment suffered huge losses of one billion! ——
This is the first time we have successfully shorted foreign capital and won a big victory in the local futures market.
——
In recent years, with the full opening of my country's cotton market, major international cotton merchants such as Louis Dreyfus, Weill Brothers, Icam, and Cargill have all rushed to enter the domestic cotton market.
——
Public information shows that Louis Dreyfus’ cotton company in the United States was already the largest cotton supplier in the country. In 2003, its domestic sales exceeded US$1.6 billion.
——
Affected by the financial crisis, demand for cotton at home and abroad was sluggish. Louis Dreyfus took this opportunity to unite various institutions to significantly suppress domestic cotton prices and purchase a large amount of cotton at a low level.
——
However, their move was strongly attacked by the domestic upstart Jiahe Group.
——
Both bulls and shorts invested a total of billions of funds in a fierce cotton futures game.
——
In the end, Jiahe Group strongly defeated the multiple short sellers. As the party that failed in this squeeze, foreign investors such as Louis Dreyfus began to communicate with the bulls and asked for forgiveness.
——
According to sources, after many negotiations, cotton bulls and shorts finally reached a consensus. On the same day, representatives of the bulls reached an agreement with the Chinese representatives of Louis Dreyfus Company and decided to close their positions.
——
Both parties agreed that domestic and foreign investors such as Louis Dreyfus and Yongan Futures, which are short sellers, will pay certain compensation to the long sellers. The specific amount has not been announced to the public. According to the trading positions of cotton futures It seems that the amount of compensation should be no less than 1 billion yuan!
——
The reporter called the relevant personnel of Louis Dreyfus China regarding this matter, but the other party refused to respond to the matter.
——
Louis Dreyfus, as a giant that dominates the international market, unexpectedly suffered a big setback in the Chinese futures market!
——
Maybe I won’t dare to do it again!
Also receiving extensive attention from domestic cotton companies is a report from China Business News: Will the domestic cotton market’s disaster end in 2009?
——
Since the introduction of the quasi-tax, the inversion trend of cotton prices at home and abroad has expanded, and the high price difference in the cotton market has made downstream companies complain.
——
The textile industry is suffering from high cotton prices and sharp rises and falls. Against this background, more and more domestic textile companies plan to relocate their factories to Southeast Asia.
——
Although the policy wants to protect farmers most, the benefits for farmers are actually not much. In addition, the cost of cotton planting has increased significantly, and farmers' willingness to grow cotton has decreased.
——
However, this situation has gradually reversed in the past two years. Tianhe Seed Industry has significantly increased cotton yields by improving varieties, and at the same time vigorously promoted the industrialization, standardization and mechanization of cotton. The planting model has significantly reduced the unit cost of cotton, and the competitiveness of northwest cotton is no longer inferior to that of foreign countries.
——
Just recently, Jiahe Group successfully attacked the short sellers who wantonly suppressed cotton prices in domestic cotton futures! ——
Enable cotton futures to better play its pricing and value preservation functions, better serve the cotton industry chain, and serve the real economy.
In addition, the Futures Daily also carried the title [Domestic cotton futures are expected to become a global market benchmark].
——
U.S. cotton futures prices are considered to be the benchmark for global cotton prices. However, recently, its cotton export contract volume has continued to decline, and its pricing power has weakened.
——
With the gradual improvement of domestic cotton policies and the decline in output and costs, as a major producer and consumer of cotton, domestic cotton futures prices are expected to become a new weather vane!
…
Jiuquan.
"Boss, are we too merciful?"
On the phone, Yang Cheng was a little puzzled that Jiahe let the short sellers go like this.
This time it was clear that the short-sellers could be blown away directly, but in the end it was a bit anticlimactic and not satisfying enough.
Even though the profit this time was more than one billion yuan, Yang Cheng was unmoved by this profit after experiencing the storm of external market.
It’s a pity that the opportunity of the past two years may no longer exist.
Guo Yang smiled and said: "You are making people anxious. Aren't you afraid that others will ask you to fly on a clay plane?"
"What is a clay airplane?" Yang Cheng asked puzzledly.
"Just like fireworks, there was a loud bang, and then the whole hall was reduced to ashes. Think about your wife and children, do you still dare to force them to death now?"
Guo Yang's simulation was lifelike, but Yang Cheng on the other side was frightened.
When operating the outside market, because the time front is long and the market is large, Jiahe can escape unscathed.
In China, Louis Dreyfus and other foreign investors are still very abiding by the rules, but there are also domestic investors. The painful lessons of history have told us that these people can really do this kind of thing. Thinking about the children at home, Yang Cheng suddenly became frightened.
“Boss, can you also apply for Qianlong Company to be responsible for Weiguang’s security?”
“Of course, you can ask Luo Xiu or contact Qianlong directly. Boss Chen Chao."
Guo Yang thought for a while and then said: "We must also invest in domestic technology and the Internet and invest money."
"Okay."
In the recent investment list, there are many companies that are familiar to future generations, and the long-term returns will definitely be the same.
After coming back to his senses, Guo Yang reviewed the entire process of the cotton futures in his mind.
In fact, the biggest gain is not the income of 1.23 billion.
It is a declaration of sovereignty.
This is the largest intangible asset. Anyone who wants to develop cotton in China in the future will have to ask Jiahe Tong if he agrees.
Of course, from a national perspective, in the long run, foreign investment will not make waves.
Foreign capital has been able to make waves in recent years simply because supervision is unfamiliar with cotton futures.
In Guo Yang’s memory, after Louis Dreyfus became familiar with its domestic operating methods, it was also attacked by various funds from Jiangsu and Zhejiang.
In the end, we also left the market with a huge loss.
However, one thing that is worthy of praise is that foreign capital has always acknowledged losses in the country.
To his surprise, Yongan Futures, the representative of Zheshang Capital, also chose to agree to admit defeat.
Guo Yang has a certain understanding of Yongan, the famous 930 Yongan soybean meal squeeze incident!
The incident occurred in 2012 in the previous life, but at that time Guo Yang only learned about the Yongan incident after coming into contact with futures in 2014.
It is also a long-short squeeze, but the long position is Yongan Futures.
And the method is extremely cruel.
That's not a squeeze, that's a direct squeeze. Countless small businesses' savings were wiped out, and it was a complete slaughterhouse.
In fact, the short sellers have already died in the grave before, but the main bulls do not even want to let go of the grave.
After the market closed, two retail investors who had been suffering for a long time met in a business department of Yongan and exploded... Several people finally settled in Yongan.
Afterwards, the head of the National Grain Group, who was still vigorously proposing the entire industry chain strategy, was dismissed from his post.
The rest were also running and catching.
The reason why Guo Yang let the short sellers go is that he also had the idea of leaving a thin line as a human being.
In addition, Louis Dreyfus is really useful!
Domestic cotton futures trading has just started, and the activity is too low.
Many cotton companies don't even know how to hedge, and only use futures as a profit-making tool, but they have fallen into trouble.
Foreign capital such as Louis Dreyfus can not only activate the market, but also make domestic cotton futures trading rapidly progress.
If we want to compete for the position of the U.S. cotton trend vane, domestic cotton futures cannot do without foreign investment.
In addition, Jiahe is not mature in the cotton trade. If it does deliver the 600,000 tons of cotton, it can only store it for a long time and digest it slowly.
It is better to agree on compensation and let Louis Dreyfus handle it on its own.
After sorting it out, Guo Yang believed that there was nothing wrong with the method chosen by Jiahe.
Benefits have been maximized.
A stable market is not only beneficial to cotton farmers and cotton companies, but also extremely beneficial to Tianhe’s cotton seed sales.
…
Tianhe Seed Industry’s small meeting.
Guo Yang listened to Qu Yang’s report.
"Now that the whole Xinjiang knows about Tianmian 20, farmers are very enthusiastic about purchasing. Cotton seed sales have increased significantly in the past half month."
"The price of 50 yuan/kg is 36 yuan more than the average price of conventional cotton seeds on the market. Yuan/kg is much higher, but seeds are still in short supply.”
It takes about 1.5 kilograms of cotton to grow per acre, and the current price is about 75 yuan per acre.
The price is not cheap, but it is not too outrageous and provides good value for money. The efficiency of cotton planting has been significantly improved by cotton farmers.
Guo Yang asked again: “What about subsidies for improved seeds?”
"The subsidy is 15 yuan per acre, and this time it is directly paid to farmers, which is good for Tianhe."
Qu Yang said with a smile: "I hope this year's new varieties can open up the Huanghuai and Yangtze Rivers The cotton seed market in the river basin area. "
"That's not easy."
Guo Yang knew the situation of the new variety and only cultivated it this month. "It is a hybrid seed and the cost of seed production is very high. "High."
"It's also expensive. I have great confidence in Tianhe Academy of Sciences." Qu Yang said with a smile:
"Tianhe also has a seed production base of 200,000 acres, and the seed production cost will be lower."
"Just have confidence."
Generally speaking, the seed production cost of hybrid cotton It is 8 to 10 times higher than conventional cotton, and the price is also more expensive.
For example, the E miscellaneous cotton and Hua miscellaneous cotton series are basically more than 200 yuan/kg.
The advantages of hybrid cotton are also obvious, including high yield, good quality and strong disease resistance.
However, it is difficult to promote it because it is too expensive. Currently, there are only a few trial plantings in Xinjiang, and the sowing area does not exceed 2,000 acres.
The cost of seeds per acre is nearly 300 yuan. Cotton farmers will not be tempted without absolute benefits.
Although Guo Yang is also very confident in the newly cultivated hybrid cotton varieties, it will take at least three to five years to really popularize them.
Cotton, corn, soybeans, rapeseed, vegetables... Tianhe products are still the mainstream in the market.
After talking about business, Guo Yang said to Qu Yang: "You can keep an eye on the headquarters for two more days."
"The boss is going on a business trip?"
Guo Yang pretended to be embarrassed and said: "Hey, isn't there an ice fishing competition in Xiangyang Lake? I have to let me go there to suppress the situation."
"Um...Boss, your acting is a bit fake."
"Is it so obvious?"
It is true that he has been busy during this period, but Guo Yang really wants to take a rest. It seems that he has passed We need to find a CEO in two years.
"You just have to put a smile on your face." Qu Yang joked: "Two days is enough. I have to go to the market to check the situation in two days."
"Two days are enough."< br>
……
Xinjiang Province, Tianhe Seed Industry Wusu Agricultural Service Department.
There are several pickup trucks and trucks parked on the cement square outside the house, and under the shed, several strong men are carrying bags of cotton seeds.
The small room in the service department was also crowded with people, all queuing up to order cotton seeds.
The young girl Wen Hong sitting at the front desk looked up and said, "Don't crowd, line up and come one by one."
Someone replied: "Are there enough seeds? "
"Who told you not to come earlier? Some people ordered the seeds in August and September last year," Wen Hong said, "You are not in a hurry at all."
"That was not the case before. Don’t you know, Tianhe’s name was only known during this long-short cotton futures war.”
"Hey, I only learned about Tianmian after paying attention to cotton futures."
"Mainly because I was too angry. Jiahe raised the price of cotton abruptly, otherwise my cotton might not have been sold yet."< br>
“No.”
“Increasing production and increasing income is the last word.”
Listening to a group of people chatting, Wen Hong was already used to it. There have been so many people like this recently. Yes.
She was almost numb from the money she collected.
Every day is monotonous and boring, and the tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of yuan in seed money can no longer stimulate her excitement threshold at all.
…
At the end of February, Jiaozuo, Henan Province.
On a certain riverbank, green wheat stretches as far as the eye can see, and the farmland is full of busy figures.
When spring comes, all things grow, and it is the right time to irrigate.
Spring irrigation is the "first water" the land drinks after winter, and is crucial to the stable and high yield of wheat.
“This water came in time!”
Jin Kaiqiang from the Rich Farmers Cooperative breathed a sigh of relief, turned around and said to the young man beside him: “Thank you, Yu Xiao, I’m sorry to bother you during this time. "
"Win-win cooperation," said Yu Yu, "Does Mr. Jin plan to plant soybeans or corn next season?"
The land area managed by rich farmers is close to 7,000 acres, and they are absolutely large growers.
It is also a key customer of Tianhe.
Actually, spring irrigation should have started in early February, but it has not rained in the north for several months.
The fire during the Lantern Festival made Jiahe notice the drought in the north.
One of Tianhe's plans is to assist farmers with spring irrigation. They can also run around, study and judge the water situation, and inspect water leakage points.
The salesman in charge of the rich farmer cooperative, Yu Yu, even helped mobilize a small excavator to clear the channels...
Jin Kaiqiang thought about it and said, "Yu Yu, what do you recommend planting?"
"Soybeans." Yu Yu thought for a moment and said, "Your land is a little hardened. Change the soil."
"Okay, you have the final say, then plant soybeans."
>In previous years, Jin Kaiqiang would have decided not to plant soybeans because the yield would be too low. However, he has been working with Tianhe for a long time and knows the name of the Tiandou series.
Coupled with the downturn in corn prices last year... after thinking about it, soybeans are indeed suitable, and the seeds are cheaper.
You are a conscientious person and do not recommend blindly.
“Let’s get 25 tons of soybean seeds first.” Jin Kaiqiang said: “Cash on delivery, I don’t take credit.”
“Great, Mr. Jin.”
Le Yu laughed, this order is only 290,000 yuan, so easy!
This is how it is to work at Tianhe. In fact, there is not much pressure on performance, and the bosses are very considerate. If you want to make money, then you should go to the market more.
Trading in the market will always yield rewards.
(End of this chapter)