Chapter 2406
How to weigh the pros and cons in complex international relations is a task that tests the vision and wisdom of policymakers. Although the travelers in Haihan have a seemingly cheating historical perspective, they will still face many difficult choices when the country they built is actually in it.
The development of Haihan cannot be separated from the resources and markets provided by the Ming Dynasty. Therefore, maintaining the stable rule of the Ming Dynasty at this stage so that it will not be replaced by barbarians or peasant armies outside the customs in the short term is of extremely important significance to Haihan. This This is also the consensus of the vast majority of time travellers. For this reason, Haihan spent a lot of money to open up the northern route, build military strongholds and colonial areas, and deployed the country's most powerful army on the northern border for a long time to directly form a military confrontation with the Manchu Qing Dynasty. The Ming Dynasty continues to live.
In addition to the huge financial investment, such military deployment also invisibly limits Haihan's expansion progress in other directions. Wang Tom's exploration trip this past winter has proved that the environment further north is not suitable for establishing a Haihan-style colonial trading port, and the difficulty of developing natural resources in alpine areas will be far greater than that in low latitudes. From the sea to the south and west, there are wider and more livable areas for Haihan to explore. What is lacking now is the investment of military power.
If the international situation in Northeast Asia can ease, then Haihan can transfer the idle elite troops to other directions to perform more valuable tasks. This will obviously be better than letting them guard two or three military strongholds in the north. Be more meaningful.
But from the standpoint of Daming and Yue Yongshou, they would not realize what impact the armistice in Liaodong would have on Haihan. Limited to the information he had, Yue Yongshou could at most imagine that Haihan would save a lot of military expenditures after the armistice, but he was unable to understand Haihan's review and weighing of international relations at a higher level.
It is of course impossible for Yue Yongshou to convince Qian Tiandun with just one word. All he can do now is just to plead with Qian Tiandun not to agree to the Manchu and Qing Dynasty's proposal, and try his best to delay the negotiation process between the Manchu and Haihan. , buying more time for Ming Dynasty to come up with some more attractive conditions.
But can Ming really make an offer that Haihan can't refuse? Yue Yongshou was actually not sure about this at all. He knew that the court's attitude towards Haihan was complicated and contradictory. He wanted to use the Haihan army to deal with the Manchus, but he was also unwilling to let Haihan continue to take advantage of the Ming Dynasty and encroach on the Ming Dynasty's land. The Ming Dynasty has always been very resistant to the conditions that Haihan wanted, such as trade, immigration, recognition of the ownership of disputed areas, etc. Even if the current situation is unfavorable, the court may not be willing to compromise with Haihan.
Yue Yongshou spent a lot of time and asked round and round for a long time, but Qian Tiandun did not mention a word about what conditions the Manchu envoys offered for the armistice and peace talks, which made him very difficult to deal with. If the Ming Dynasty could grasp the conditions for the Qing Dynasty to open up, then the Ming Dynasty could at least offer similar conditions to Haihan. In that case, Haihan would definitely side with the Ming Dynasty, taking into account the alliance relationship. But now the Haihan people are being mysterious and unwilling to disclose key information in the negotiation process with the Manchu Qing Dynasty. This makes Yue Yongshou how to report to the court.
But in any case, the Manchu envoys had now arrived in Jinzhou, and there could be no delay in this matter. Yue Yongshou said goodbye to Qian Tiandun and hurried back to the embassy to start drafting a memorial. This news must be sent back to the capital as quickly as possible, otherwise the Qing Dynasty and Haihan will be in talks, and the Ming Dynasty will probably not be able to make the trip even if it offers generous terms.
Of course, no matter whether Yue Yongshou used eight hundred miles to express or fly pigeons to deliver messages, the speed of delivering messages would definitely not be as fast as the telegraph system used by Haihan. This urgent message was already placed on the executive committee's meeting table on the day Qian Tiandun sent it from Jinzhou.
"This is roughly the situation. I hope everyone can speak freely and share their views on this matter." After Tao Donglai finished reading the content of the long telegram, he handed over the rest of the speech to others present. people.
Regarding Haihan's development strategy for the next period of time, Tao Donglai could not make a decision after receiving the telegram. He decided to follow normal procedures and notify Haihan senior officials currently in Sanya to immediately meet at Fort Victory to discuss countermeasures.
Ning Qi was the first to speak: "We decided to send troops to Liaodong back then. After considering the historical development process, we decided to use military intervention to make the situation develop in a direction that is beneficial to our country. If we want to have a truce with the Manchus, then I think First, we must examine whether we have achieved our original goals. By the way, I would also like to remind everyone here that we had three goals at that time. One was to establish a ruling area in Liaodong as a strategic pivot in the Yellow and Bohai Sea areas of Northeast Asia; the other was to control Manchuria. The Qing carried out military strikes so that it could not divide its troops to invade the Ming Dynasty; the third was to obtain more benefits from the Ming Dynasty and North Korea on the condition of containing the Manchu Qing Dynasty. ”
"If we look at the current situation, we have basically achieved the goals we set at that time. We have controlled Jinzhou, restrained tens of thousands of Qing troops on the Liaodong Peninsula for a long time, and established alliances with both the Ming Dynasty and North Korea. Although Some details were not handled satisfactorily, but the whole process was relatively smooth.”
Listening to Ning Qi's analysis, everyone nodded slightly in agreement. It was roughly these people here who made the Liaodong strategy at Fort Victory, so when Ning Qi mentioned the resolution at that time, everyone still had a clear impression.
Yan Chujie said: "Although the goals set at the beginning have indeed been achieved, if we want to have a truce with the Manchus, the local situation may be repeated. The Manchus are not good men and women, and their purpose of trying to truce with our country is conceivable. And knowing is to free up your hands and feet to deal with Daming!”
Ning Qi said: "We certainly cannot sit back and watch the Ming Dynasty be invaded by the Manchus, but the actual situation is that our containment effect in Liaodong is gradually weakening as the Manchus grow stronger. In the past few months, the Manchus mobilized 100,000 The troops went south to invade the Ming Dynasty, but Liaodong still maintained sufficient troops to confront the Chinese army. This shows that we need to use some new means to contain the Manchu Qing Dynasty. "
Yan Chujie said: "If the Executive Committee can approve more military budgets, then of course we can send more troops to Liaodong, or increase the frequency of military operations in Liaodong, so that the Manchu Qing Dynasty will also have to invest in the Liaodong Peninsula. More resources to maintain the military balance. But I need to remind everyone that our country’s overseas military deployment is already relatively focused on the north and light on the south. Unless we can recruit and train organic troops in the north, Otherwise, the imbalance between the north and the south in the size of the garrison will further intensify.”
"Before investing more military spending in the north, I would also like to remind everyone to consider the input-output ratio." Schneider continued Yan Chujie's words: "As we all know, our country's investment in the north over the years has been beyond its means, especially in Jinzhou. In order to maintain local operations and maintain the stability of the Golden State Isthmus defense line, we spend millions on various expenditures there every year, and so far there is no sign that the income-expenditure gap has evened out.”
"Of course, I also know that the strategic significance of Jinzhou to our country cannot be simply measured by the local revenue and expenditure, but you need to know one thing. The Jinzhou area is currently the only area in our country that is in a state of war all year round. Therefore, the local The level of military expenditure is also much higher than that of other overseas ruling areas. If we can only maintain its containment effect on the Manchus by increasing the size of the garrison, then I am personally worried that Jinzhou will become a bottomless pit that cannot be filled! ”
Yan Chujie glanced at Schneider and responded calmly: "There is no need to complain so quickly, right? Besides, if the Haihan Army had not formed an effective containment in Jinzhou in recent years, Ming Dynasty's decline would have only been exposed. Faster and more thorough!" "I also think that increasing troops in Liaodong will not help solve the current problem. We should change our thinking, increase revenue and reduce expenditure, and consider ways to check and balance the Qing Dynasty from other directions." Bai Kesi suggested: "It is better for us to increase the number of troops. The intensity of arms exports to the Ming Dynasty allowed the Ming Dynasty to arm more firearms troops, so that they could cope with the military pressure exerted by the Manchus on their own. ”
Gu Kai, who was sitting next to him, immediately shook his head and objected: "I'm afraid this is not appropriate. This time the Qing army fought all the way to Shandong, it has exposed many problems in the Ming army's combat system. There are only so many troops that can really fight. There are several arms, and the person in charge has little influence in the Ming Dynasty. If we sell arms directly to the Ming Dynasty, they may not reach the hands of these people who are determined to kill the enemy.”
"We can try to trade directly with these people. Who are more reliable? I think Ning Qi can compile a detailed list based on historical data. As long as we establish a relationship with these high-ranking officials who lead troops, we can slowly move towards the Ming Dynasty. The main war faction exerts influence." Bai Kesi was prepared for this and immediately responded to Gu Kai's question.
"But selling large quantities of weapons to the Ming army may become a hidden danger that threatens our country's interests in the future." Gu Kai still does not agree with the idea of arming the Ming army to check and balance the Qing Dynasty.
"I'm afraid it is imperative to sell weapons and equipment to Ming Dynasty." Tao Donglai interjected: "Please ask Minister He to tell you the latest news."
He Xi, who was sitting in the back row, said: "According to the intelligence collected by the Ministry of Security and the Military Intelligence Bureau in the fighting areas in Shandong, the Qing troops attacking Jinan Prefecture this time have already included organic musketeers and artillery units. Its combat effectiveness seems to be still higher than that of the Ming army. We have reason to believe that the ordnance manufacturing technology mastered by the Spanish has flowed into Liaodong through the Japanese Hirado clan, and achieved a certain scale of mass production in the Manchu Qing Dynasty. But regarding the firearms troops. At present, we do not have more detailed information about the establishment scale and the production capacity of related weapons and equipment, pending further investigation.”
After listening to He Xi's words, Gu Kai understood what Tao Donglai just said: "This means that if we do not provide weapons and equipment to the Ming Dynasty, the gap in the combat effectiveness of the Ming army will also widen?"
Tao Donglai nodded slightly and said: "That's exactly it. If we don't intervene at all, maybe in two or three years, the Ming army will be completely unable to defeat the Qing army on the frontal battlefield."
In fact, at this time, it was only about five years before the Qing army entered the pass and captured the capital to replace the Ming Dynasty. However, the butterfly effect caused by the appearance of Haihan in this time and space allowed the Manchu and Qing Dynasties to master the manufacturing technology of advanced weapons. Perhaps the Manchu Qing Dynasty will be launched earlier than in history.
"Off topic, let's discuss the issues that need to be dealt with in Jinzhou first." Ning Qi tried hard to bring the topic back to its original track: "Should we accept the Manchu Qing's request for peace talks?"
Tao Donglai said: "Actually, this is also related to what we just discussed. The two are not contradictory. If we accept the armistice plan proposed by the Manchu Qing, it means that we may have to give up the containment of Liaodong and the Ming Dynasty. Direct military intervention. In order for Ming Dynasty to protect itself in this situation, it may only be possible to upgrade the Ming army’s weapons.”
Ning Qi asked: "Then can we ask the Manchu Qing Dynasty to enter an armistice state with our country while also entering a state of armistice with the Ming Dynasty? If necessary, we can also involve North Korea as part of the armistice conditions."
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Tao Donglai frowned slightly and said: "You can try, but the hope is slim. The Manchu Qing Dynasty must have seen through this invasion of Shandong that we are in harmony with the Ming Dynasty, and thought there was an opportunity to take advantage of it, so they proposed to us again. demand for an armistice and peace talks.”
In the year before the Manchu Qing Dynasty, Huang Taiji personally led an army of 100,000, preparing to cross the Yalu River to conquer North Korea. However, before crossing the river, Haihan began to send armed warships on the Yalu River to prevent the Qing army from crossing the river, and then directly sent troops to intervene. During the war, they blocked the main force of the Qing army on the banks of the Datong River, and later drove the Qing army all the way to the north bank of the Yalu River before withdrawing their troops. In this invasion of the Ming Dynasty, the Qing army broke into Shandong and even crossed the Yellow River to capture Jinan Prefecture, but there was no trace of the Haihan army.
Comparing the performance of the Haihan army on the Korean battlefield the year before last, there are only two possibilities. One is that the Ming Dynasty refused to let Haihan send troops to help out of suspicion, and would rather be beaten to pieces than to let Haihan intervene; the other is that although the Ming Dynasty Asked Haihan for help, but due to failure to negotiate certain conditions, Haihan finally chose to stand aside.
But no matter which case it is, there is no doubt that there is a huge gap between the two countries, and the military alliance declared on the surface has not been fulfilled. Since Haihan did not intervene in the fight like this, from the standpoint of the Manchus, it was natural to try to see if Haihan could stop his actions in Liaodong, so as to relieve his worries about future attacks on the Ming Dynasty.
If Haihan wants to bring Ming or North Korea into the armistice negotiations and make the Manchu and Qing Dynasties promise to enter a state of armistice with these two countries at the same time, this is tantamount to letting the Manchu and Qing Dynasties tie their own hands. If such conditions can be negotiated, then the only party that will suffer a loss among the negotiating parties is Manqing.
(End of chapter)