Chapter 392 The Influence of Agricultural Economics
Since "Hua Xia Xing Huo" was revised into "Agricultural Economics" this year, both printing and decoration, layout design, and article content have made great progress.
This has also made this high-end agricultural magazine loved by many big shots in the system and many agricultural capitals in society.
This is also the best way to understand changes in domestic and foreign agricultural policies and the development of agricultural enterprises.
Therefore, when the "Agricultural Economics", which was published only once a month, was mailed to major government departments, people were quickly ready to read it.
And these people were undoubtedly attracted by the cover for the first time.
[Has the era of energy crops arrived? ——
In a desperate move, can Jiahe Group’s bioenergy strategy enable it to catch up with the four major grain merchants? 】
Such a semi-question, combined with the photo of Jiahe's Gobi Oasis headquarters building, forest, seeds, and diesel on the cover, immediately attracted the attention of many people.
"Interesting, really interesting."
Someone expressed emotion, "I remember that it was just a few issues ago that an editor of Agricultural Economics published an article: The era of energy crops has not yet arrived."
"Is this going to be a slap in the face?"
But when they saw that the protagonist was Jiahe, they all kept silent.
Jiahe has invested heavily in the bioenergy forest industry, and it has long been known to everyone in the agricultural sector.
Although there are mixed reviews and criticisms, it is very controversial. Some experts and scholars have even directly questioned it publicly. They have published academic papers, university public lectures, industry reports, etc. to deny or question Jiahe's energy forest strategy, which wastes people, money, and damages land and water resources...
But none of this can stop Jiahe’s determination, and few places can refuse tens of billions of real investments.
That's really throwing money away.
Along with thinking, these people opened the title page of the book one after another.
“If Cargill is the world’s largest privately held company, then Jiahe is the largest privately held agricultural company in China.
After several years of rapid expansion, while competitors are vying for land around the world, Golden Harvest is betting on energy forests.
This strategic adjustment has caused a lot of criticism. For this reason, we specially invited Guo Yang, chairman of Jiahe Group, to write a manuscript and had a dialogue. ”
On the next page, Guo Yang appeared, with slightly dark skin and a smile on his lips.
"Actually, we have been doing well in end products, including milk, food, and the recently popular Jixiaobai."
Below, the figures of ‘Ji Xiaobai’ and ‘Yue Huo’ also appeared.
It would be perfect if Ning Gaoning is included.
The editor is a bit timid!
Then he introduced some developments of Jiahe and the dialogue with Nongjing.
How to view Guofang’s overseas mergers and acquisitions, how to face international competition, how to go global, etc.
Many people browsed it briefly and couldn't wait to find the chapter about energy forests.
They want to see how the head of Jiahe responds to the energy forest controversy, and also want to see why energy crops are rising.
Then I saw a more interesting title.
【The Rise of Energy Agriculture in the Northwest and Southwest
——
The Hongqi River Concept: A brief feasibility discussion on water diversion from the big bend of the Yarlung Zangbo River to the northwest Hetao area, the Hexi Corridor, and the Tarim Basin]
Those who read the book had mixed reactions, but they all caught their attention.
Northwest, southwest?
This is the focus of Jiahe’s current layout.
But where did the Hongqi River water diversion project come from?
The western route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is to divert water from the Yangtze River to the Yellow River, not to mention that it is far from the Tarim Basin.
The big bend of the Brahmaputra River?
Many people were whetted and started reading.
“In recent years, the price of lettuce seeds in the north has experienced a roller coaster ride, and many companies and farmers who entered the market at a high point were trapped.
Coincidentally, many provinces, autonomous regions, and petroleum and petrochemical companies in the southwest have rushed to land Jatropha energy forests, which has also caused many energy forest problems.
Therefore, a common voice has emerged in the industry and academia: my country does not yet have a stereotyped energy crop variety with a complete industrial chain.
At this stage, farmers should not participate.
However, here, on behalf of Jiahe Group, I would like to announce a message to you: the era of energy crops has arrived.
Based on this judgment, Jiahe will invest tens of billions of yuan in building energy forests in Long, Shaanxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Guangxi and other places within 3 to 5 years.
As of this year, more than 4 million acres of energy forest planting has been completed, and thousands of farmers, cooperatives, and enterprises have joined this ambitious plan..."
When seeing this, some people can't help but wonder what Jiahe efficiency is.
In just a short period of time, 4 million acres of energy forest have been planted, which is more than in the north and south combined in previous years.
This is the charm of throwing money!
Even if it is unfinished, the money invested by the company has really fallen into place.
When they saw once again that Jiahe judged the arrival of the era of energy crops based on the progress of energy tree varieties, these people were all used to it.
The seeds are Jiahe's strongest spear.
But no one can predict whether the bioenergy barrier can be broken this time. Except for Jiahe, not many people dare to take the risk.
"The dilemma in developing energy forests is water. At present, there are water-saving drip irrigation, water rights adjustment and distribution, crop rotation and fallow and other water-saving measures.
But the greatest potential is undoubtedly fallow. ”
The second subtitle appeared: Global Agricultural Resource Supply Potential and Challenges.
"From the perspective of land resources, there is still a lot of arable land in the world, with a total amount of more than 1.4 billion hectares. The area suitable for planting rice, wheat, corn, and soybeans each exceeds 1 billion hectares, with a production increase potential of 8-10%.
From the perspective of yield potential, scientific and technological progress such as breeding technology and cultivation technology are the main driving factors for increasing yields.
In the nearly 50 years since 1960, more than 80% of the increase in the production of the three major cereals has come from increases in unit yields. Therefore, the future increase in global food supply will mainly rely on the increase in yields brought about by scientific and technological progress. ”
“In recent years, due to high oil prices, the rapid development of bioenergy has been promoted, which has greatly increased the demand for corn, sugar, rapeseed, soybeans and other raw materials, changing the long-term global food surplus and low food prices.
If the food consumed by fuel ethanol was not taken into account, the global food supply and demand situation would not be so tight.
On the other hand, agricultural development is easier first and then more difficult, and the later the development, the higher the cost.
At the same time, planting costs are the bottom line for food prices, and increases in oil and other energy prices will push up food prices.
Finally, the driving force of the global economy has shifted to emerging economies represented by the BRICS countries. Global resource consumption has entered a new round of rapid growth, which has also shown a huge demand for agricultural products. The population of the BRICS countries alone has reached 3 billion.
How to meet the increasing consumption demand of these more than 3 billion people in the future has become a new challenge for global food security.
Based on the above points, I judge that the era of low global food prices will never return.
Add to this the increasing trend of ‘financialization’ of food, and production reductions caused by natural disasters and unexpected factors will lead to speculation.
For example, the fire ants and caltrops we are encountering across the ocean...
But competitors should not be too busy to rejoice. The grain and oil price war started by Jiahe Cereals and Oils in China will not end here, but will continue.
One is out of competition, and the other is the hope to speed up the adjustment of domestic planting structure.
The outside world can accuse Jiahe of wanting to seize both seeds and grain and oil.
However, the advancement of breeding technology has indeed brought about an agricultural revolution limited to the country. The past two years have also been a period of pain for the transformation of the domestic agricultural planting structure.
There is a corn surplus and soybeans are about to become self-sufficient.
In a few years, we may be able to look forward to a future where domestic grain production is in full surplus.
The exit is inevitable.
Or, let the land recuperate, store food in the land, and store food in technology. ”
For this country, no one dares to talk about food surplus.
The huge population base and limited arable land resources have made the whole world worry about whether China can feed such a large population in the past few decades.
But now, the year-on-year production increase data is indeed there.
Moreover, the increase is getting more and more exaggerated.
Now someone has completely torn away this veil. Everyone has a steelyard in their hearts to measure that food surplus is not far away.
From food surplus, it quickly evolved into the next topic: agriculture needs to recuperate.
"Even if there is no surplus of food, the land in the country should have recuperated long ago."
"Our country's cultivated land is affected by factors such as drought, floods, saline-alkali, and barrenness. Medium- and low-yield fields account for a large proportion, which has put great pressure on increasing grain yields. The contradiction between construction land and cultivated land is still prominent."
“The grain output in the Northeast accounts for 1/4 of the country. However, due to long-term high-intensity development and utilization, the cultivated land in the originally fertile black soil areas has experienced long-term overdraft. The black soil soil layer has become thinner and thinner, and the fertility has become increasingly thin. "Thin", the texture becomes more and more "hard"
"The southwest karst mountainous area centered on Guizhou Province covers an area of more than 500,000 square kilometers. It is the largest karst area in the world and a typical ecologically fragile area with the strongest karst development. At the same time, this area is also where my country's absolute poverty population is relatively concentrated. one of the regions
However, ‘ecological fragility-poverty-predatory development-environmental degradation-further poverty’ has caused the district to fall into a vicious cycle of poverty trap.
At present, Jiahe has built a jatropha planting base in the area, but it is still a drop in the bucket. ”
"Hunan Province is a major agricultural province, with the largest rice planting area in the country. It is also the hometown of non-ferrous metals. Heavy metal pollution in cultivated land is serious, especially in major agricultural products such as grains, where heavy metals exceed standards..."
“In the inland northwest, drought and water shortages have seriously affected agricultural production activities and are also the main constraints on Jiahe’s bioenergy strategy..."
Seeing this, some people have given up hope that Jiahe Cereals and Oils will cancel the price war.
The price war is not only a weapon used by Jiahe Cereals and Oils to penetrate into the heart of its opponents, but also promotes forced fallow farming.
There is no shortage of land in the northwest, and certainly no shortage of low-yield fields such as sandy land and saline-alkali land.
If the price is pushed to the limit, medium- and high-yield fields that produce more than 1,500 kilograms of grain can be accepted, but low-yield fields that only produce a few hundred kilograms can only be forced to withdraw, or join Jiahe's energy forest plan.
What's more, domestic food prices have always been higher than abroad.
Considering many aspects, it is impossible for Jiahe to end the price war in a short time, and it has not revealed how many years it will last. Some grain and oil companies are already thinking about countermeasures.
However, some officials have noticed the problem. Passive fallow farming can also be abandoned, which are two different things.
So this article means that Jiahe wants the state to promote large-scale fallowing.
Not only has the short-term water use problem of the Northwest Energy Forest been solved, the Jiahe Dunhuang West Lake Project will also benefit.
Does the upper management have this motivation?
The Ministry of Agriculture already revealed signs when it inspected Jiuquan, and the state supports this matter.
"Hide grain in granaries and store grain in people" no longer adapts to the new situation.
The saying "Hide food in technology, hide food in land" comes from the ancient Chinese agricultural classic "Yu Gong" and has been remembered by many people.
"Farmland rotation and fallow are sustainable food production ideas."
"It is not only conducive to conserving soil fertility and maintaining the ecology, but also conducive to balancing the contradiction between food supply and demand and stabilizing farmers' income. It serves multiple purposes."
"This will be a step that will benefit the future."
"Jiahe will indeed benefit from it, at least the first phase of the energy forest project can be implemented smoothly.
But once Jiahe succeeds, the fallow water resources will not be able to meet the needs of energy forests.
At this time, we had to come up with a bold idea - the Hongqi River water diversion project. ”
"Under the influence of multiple factors, my country has formed a clear contrast between southeastern and southern China, which has abundant precipitation and humid climate, while northwest China has scarce precipitation and arid climate.
In response to this imbalance in terrain characteristics and water resources allocation, the ancients lamented, "When will hundreds of rivers reach the sea from the east and return to the west?"
In recent years, reservoirs and power stations across the country such as Sanmenxia and the Yangtze Three Gorges, as well as large-scale water diversion projects such as the East and Middle Lines of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, have been built to alleviate the demand for water and electricity in some areas.
The Hongqi River concept is also based on the imbalance of water resources. It is intended to transfer water from the rich areas in southwest my country to the arid areas in the northwest.
The purpose of the following content is also to explore a realistic, feasible, scientific and reasonable water diversion route in the west..."
At this time, the people holding the Agricultural Economics magazine were in trance, motionless like statues.
Only his occasionally frowning brows and unblinking eyes proved that he was just fascinated.
Water is collected near Big Bend and flows into the Nu River;
Crossing the Hengduan Mountains at the parallel flow of three rivers, borrowing the Nujiang River channel and then entering the Lancang River through a tunnel, borrowing the Lancang River River channel and then entering the Jinsha River through a tunnel;
Using a combination of tunnels, open channels and reservoirs to bypass the Shaluli Mountains and reach the Yalong River...
The total distance is more than 6,000 kilometers, and the total annual water transfer volume is expected to reach 60 billion cubic meters.
In addition to the Hongqi River, the manuscript also mentions the Pinglu Canal in Guangxi Province. Once connected, the entire southwest and northwest will be more closely connected.
There are also pictures and some information.
The whole concept is quite long, but trying to explain a huge water conservancy project is a fool's errand.
However, several key points are explained.
The first is economic support. The national economy is developing rapidly. If the energy forests in the northwest and southwest can really rise, they can be developed and make profits at the same time.
Planting trees can also extend the timeline, which is the best economic support.
It may even happen that the cost has been recovered before the project is completed. Secondly, there are technical conditions. After the construction of super projects such as the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the Three Gorges Project, and the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, some experience has been accumulated, but a long period of investigation, demonstration, and research are still needed.
Then there is ecological protection...
Each one was explained one by one. After reading all the discussions, some people were excited about it, while others were frightened and angry.
The scale of the Hongqi River project is unprecedented.
Moreover, it is an idea proposed by the enterprise, bioenergy - crop rotation and fallow - Hongqi River Project - bioenergy. This is a big game of chess.
The biggest highlight of this issue of the journal is this manuscript. Other articles compiled by Agricultural Economics also focus on energy crops.
Therefore, the ideas about the bioenergy forest and the Hongqi River project quickly swept through the entire agricultural system.
This is destined to be a mixed idea.
……
Jiuquan.
Guo Yang has been staying in Jiuquan since he learned that the new issue of "Agricultural Classic" was released.
These days, he goes to bed early and gets up early every day.
After exercising in the morning, I came to the headquarters building on time, turned on the computer, drank tea, looked at the scenery of the Gobi Oasis, and then started my morning work.
Wait until the afternoon, go around the various departments of the company, show your face, and chat with the employees.
Another harvest season is coming, all work is being carried out in an orderly manner, and he has not interfered too much in grassroots management.
Instead, some of the energy is allocated to the formulation and adjustment of the company's personnel and organizational structure, corporate culture, rules and regulations, etc.
Then at 5:30 every day, the working teams of NIO Tianjian and Weibo were called to hold video conferences in turn to adjust and improve various details.
This morning, after sorting out documents and other information, Guo Yang decided to go for a walk in the countryside.
However, the off-road vehicle just drove out of the building and before entering the main road, there were bursts of piercing horns.
Luo Xiu glanced at it, "Boss, it seems to be the car led by Qin Lijun."
Guo Yang also saw a black Passat next to an official car, "Stop for a moment."
The Passat quickly stopped side by side, and Qin Lijun stuck his head out of the car window, "Mr. Guo, why is your phone turned off?"
Guo Yang said: "There are too many phone calls."
"..." Qin Lijun: "I read the article in the Agricultural Classics, and it was very bold."
Guo Yang raised his eyebrows, "That's what you came here to say?"
"The leader asked me to tell you that the province will fully support Jiahe's bioenergy strategy." Qin Lijun smiled: "At least fallow, the province has already planned to implement it in the entire Hexi Corridor."
Guo Yang smiled and said, "The energy forest can definitely be achieved. Not only can it be achieved, but the benefits it can create will exceed everyone's imagination."
"Where are you going to the countryside? I'll go with you." When he said this, Qin Lijun had already got out of the car.
Guo Yang said with a smile: "Wander around as you like, wherever you go. If you plan the route in advance, the people below will definitely make it look beautiful."
"I feel like you're sarcastic." Qin Lijun got in the car, "It's been a while since I went to the countryside with you."
"The leaders above won't ask me again who is in the south, right?"
"Hahaha, no, no," Qin Lijun said: "As soon as this article came out, Jiahe and the Hexi Corridor were already tied together."
"Just let the bullets fly for a while."
Guo Yang thought of Weibo and Huinong.com. After fermentation within the system, perhaps they could also attract some interested people.
…
Huaxia Water Conservancy and Hydropower Research Institute.
Wang Hao, director of the Institute of Water Resources, professor-level senior engineer, and academician of the Academy of Engineering, couldn't help but pat the table after reading the idea about the Hongqi River.
"I swear that I will face the ninety thousand heavens and look westward at Zuogong Liu eight thousand!" Wang Hao sighed with emotion: "The idea is very bold!"
Zhao Yong, deputy director of the Institute of Water Resources, said: "It's too bold."
Wang Hao asked: "Do you think you have missed the mark?"
"Huh?" Zhao Yong thought for a moment in surprise. The director's words were very meaningful. "This is just an idea without any scientific evidence."
"Isn't that what we do?" Wang Hao smiled and said, "Okay, can we organize a team to conduct inspections a few times, and then we can make a preliminary judgment."
Zhao Yong said: "The east and middle routes of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project have not yet been completed. It is inappropriate to push this now."
"It's not us who are pushing, it's Jiahe who is pushing." Wang Hao teased: "We are just doing it casually, not to mention we can't say when it will be implemented."
Zhao Yong nodded slowly, he somewhat understood Wang Hao's intention.
"I'm interested in this project, so let me contact the experts to make a demonstration." Wang Hao added, "Let's see if we can get some funding from Jiahe."
Zhao Yong said: "I'll ask about this."
…
Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Institute of Geology and Geophysics.
Zhao Xitao, who had white hair, came to the institute for a walk as usual, but accidentally saw a new young man reading a book, engrossed in it.
Out of curiosity, he stood behind him and looked at it. He vaguely saw a map of China, but there was a strange curve on it, like a non-existent river.
As he was getting older, he thought his eyes were a little blurred, so he could only look closer, accidentally alerting the young man who was reading.
The young man was agitated, as if he had seen a ghost.
After calming down for a while, Wei Lejun said: "Mr. Zhao, you almost scared me to death."
Zhao Xitao asked: "What are you looking at so fascinated?"
"There was an article in the Agricultural Economics, and a friend from the agricultural industry asked me to help read it."
Wei Lejun's eyes suddenly lit up.
Zhao Laobie was only a researcher when he saw that he was retired, but he had inspected the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon many times, inspected the Three Parallel Rivers area dozens of times, and also participated in the inspection of the middle line of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project...
< br>
Regarding the concept of the Hongqi River proposed in the article, there should be few people who have more say than Mr. Zhao.
Thinking of this, Wei Lejun said: "Mr. Zhao, sit down. This article proposes an idea for water diversion. Take a look."
Zhao Xitao frowned, that map is for water diversion?
With doubts, Zhao Xitao sat down and read carefully, while Wei Lejun went to help make a cup of tea.
But until the tea became cold, Zhao Xitao did not move, and his expression was hard to fathom.
After a long time, Wei Lejun asked: "Mr. Zhao, do you think this is feasible?"
"Feasibility?"
Zhao Xitao just sneered and made Wei Lejun feel the pressure.
"This is ridiculous!"
In an instant, Zhao Xitao's face turned red as if he was changing his face in a Sichuan opera, "Don't they think the project is not big enough or not enough!"
“The pros and cons of projects such as the Sanmenxia, Three Gorges, and South-to-North Water Diversion projects cannot be clearly discerned by the current impetuous and utilitarian mentality.
The so-called Hongqi River is of unprecedented scale, involving water resource allocation, the ecological environment of vast areas in different river basins along its course, and the production and life of hundreds of millions of people.
If humans do not take the laws of nature as a basis, it will only bring greater disasters. ”
Wei Lejun had long been stunned.
He didn't dare to move or speak. Mr. Zhao had a bit of a weird temper and offended many people in the academic world.
And he just remembered that someone seemed to have said that Mr. Zhao was a firm opponent of the Three Gorges Project.
So I didn't get much fame until I retired.
After getting angry for a while, Zhao Xitao looked at Wei Lejun and asked, "Do you also think this is a project that benefits China?"
Wei Lejun shook his head without hesitation. It was important to save his life at this time.
"Boys can be taught." Zhao Xitao nodded with satisfaction.
Wei Lejun blinked, it was so easy to believe it!
Zhao Xitao looked at the cover of the Agricultural Economics again. He didn't understand agriculture, but except for the Hongqi River and the dubious bioenergy, he strongly agreed with fallow.
"Rest on the ground but not on the sky, one year bears two years' worth of work." This is the wisdom left by our predecessors over thousands of years.
It’s just that modern people are more and more eager for quick success.
Thinking of this, Zhao Xitao realized that the influence of Yi Nong Jing should have spread to all major institutions long ago.
This is a big plus for some ‘engineers’.
After sitting on the bench and pondering for a long time, Zhao Xitao looked at Wei Lejun and said, "Xiao Wei, are you interested in publishing a few papers?"
"Of course!"
"If you are ambitious." Zhao Xitao stood up, "Then let me, an old man like me, be a villain again!"
Wei Lejun felt that he got on the boat inexplicably.
"Looking at the map, the source and upper reaches of the Hongqi River are typical high mountains and deep valleys in landforms. They are the largest and deepest areas on the earth...
But there are still some points that require on-the-spot investigation, Xiao Wei, thank you for your hard work. ”
……
"For modern countries, whether there is a solid supply of oil is a major matter of national importance.
It is expected that next year, my country will surpass Laos and the United States to become the world's largest manufacturing country, and its oil consumption will reach 440 million tons.
Chengdu will rely on imports for 7 of them. ”
As one of the promoters of that manuscript, although Liu Deshu just did it casually, his leader summoned him.
The leader also fell into thinking.
China is a super buyer of oil, but it is not that easy to maintain the supply of crude oil for super buyers.
Import and shipping are obstacles that cannot be bypassed...
At the same time, it is also necessary to increase revenue and reduce expenditure.
Among them, the diversity of energy structures has the highest potential to be tapped, including wind energy, solar energy, hydro energy, nuclear energy...
However, the proportion of oil in my country's power generation is not high. Not much oil is used for power generation, but huge amounts are used in transportation and industry.
In addition to electric vehicles, which already have some policy targets, biodiesel is also possible.
After thinking for a while, the leader said: "It's only been three years. Just wait for him. This kid is really capable of doing things."
Liu Deshu said: "But maybe it can really happen this time."
"When you are done, walk on more legs and walk more steadily and better."
"What about the Hongqi River?"
The leader smiled and said, "Let the industry have a good quarrel first. If we don't quarrel for a few years or ten years, I don't think this matter will be over."
…
Gui Province.
“80% of Jiahe also has ideas about the Pinglu Canal!”
"Ah, he just mentioned it!"
"I don't know why he mentioned this. Otherwise, why would Jiahe go to Baise to plant jatropha trees? Couldn't he just develop in the southwest?"
"Is that so?"
"It has to be yes!"
Jin Province.
Li Yongcai, who had suffered a lot in setting up orchards and planting Wenguan fruit, once again strengthened his belief after reading an article in the Agricultural Economics at the Agricultural Bureau.
At the same time, I also made a decision to record this hardship on Huinong.com.
(End of chapter)