Chapter 271 Chain Reaction, Capital Return
Guo Yang actually doesn’t know how severe the impact of melamine on multinational companies.
But Ji Zhuowen knows better about this.
Guo Yang also learned more details from his dictation.
Nestlé is the first multinational company to fall. It is one of the few multinational dairy giants with milk source bases in China.
In the early 1990s, Nestlé established a milk source base in Heilongjiang Province, adopting a "company + farmer" model to collect milk directly from farmers without going through middlemen.
However, after the incident, the Hong Kong Island Center for Food Safety announced that a sample of Nestlé pure milk for catering was found to contain melamine.
Then came Unilever and Starbucks, both of which chose Mengniu as their suppliers, and then were hammered.
Eager to draw a clear line, Starbucks searched for suppliers across the country, and Hexi Dairy, which had a good reputation, came into its sights.
After Guo Yang learned the details, he thought for a while and said, "Is the supply chain of Hexi Dairy very tight now?"
"Well, the main reason is that raw milk production has reached a bottleneck. There are currently about 300,000 dairy cows in the pasture, which is about half of the peak production period. According to the current unit yield level, the annual milk production is about 2 million tons."
The domestic dairy herd is currently about 13 to 14 million, the annual output of raw milk is about 39 million tons, and the average yield is about 3 tons.
The average yield of Hexi Dairy has reached 10 tons.
This is mainly due to the fact that there are too many retail investors and too few dairy companies control their own milk sources.
At present, except for Hexi, there is no animal husbandry group in China with more than 100,000 dairy cows.
Hexi Dairy ranks first in the number of dairy cows, average yield, and proportion of self-controlled milk sources.
Guo Yang thought for a while and said: "There is no need to cooperate with Starbucks yet, after all, our own production is not enough."
Ji Zhuowen said: "Starbucks is very anxious now. In the past 10 years, their global stores have expanded from 1,000 to 13,000. "
"In addition to coffee, their milk and other products need to be purchased locally. They will still maintain a unified national milk procurement model and their milk supply. The supplier must be a national brand.”
“If we don’t supply the goods, Starbucks will probably choose Mengniu after the incident subsides.”
"So, my suggestion is to stabilize first."
Guo Yang put the report in his hand on the table, picked up the teacup and took a sip, and thought for a long time before saying:
"Forget it, give priority to ensuring the supply of infant milk powder."
Ji Zhuowen said with a hint of regret: "Actually, there are many countries that want to import our milk powder. If Hexi's milk powder production is sufficient, it will be completely You can export."
Guo Yang raised his eyebrows, "Isn't the exit route blocked?"
Since the domestic incident broke out, a number of countries, led by Europe and the United States, have banned the import of any dairy products from China.
Ji Zhuowen said: "But there are also customers who recognize our products, especially in countries where milk sources are scarce. Moreover, the domestic government also hopes that we will collect more milk and then process and sell it or export it."
< br>Guo Yang understood this, but he still shook his head.
Under the impact of internal and external troubles, some domestic dairy companies have serious product backlogs. The country has been encouraging processing companies to collect more milk.
Hexi is the first to bear the brunt.
However, except for the Delong Animal Husbandry Association, a branch of Hexi, which collects milk around Tianshan Ranch, the rest of the milk sources are self-controlled.
Not much help to dairy farmers.
Moreover, the current foreign brands are too clumsy and extremely tough on price. The price difference between local low-end brands and high-end foreign brands is 5 times or more.
But imported milk sources are not necessarily safe. Mad cow disease and foot-and-mouth disease have long-term effects on some countries.
As a local high-end brand, Hexi milk powder will definitely give priority to the domestic market as its main battlefield to cope with the challenges of foreign brands.
Although this will offend some people, it will be conducive to restoring national confidence and the long-term development of the domestic dairy industry.
Just Yili, Mengniu, etc. are even more uncomfortable.
Guo Yang thought for a while, and behind Mengniu and Yili were the interests of hundreds of thousands of dairy farmers, and it was impossible for the government to let them go bankrupt.
Foreign acquisition is also impossible.
After pondering for a while, Guo Yang said: "Hexi Dairy is not a god. There are some benefits and profits that cannot be earned, so don't think about it yet."
"The current focus of our work is to expand pastures, increase unit yields, and increase total output. Our number of dairy cows is still too small."
"The other is to strengthen research and development and marketing, and do a good job in hospital public relations and consumption. Follow-up visits and professional services, especially tracking the baby's growth. "
"Don't netizens say that Hexi milk powder is amazing? If we can provide specific data through long-term tracking, this will be of great benefit to consumers. It’s more convincing and greatly improves trust.”
“Service is also Hexi’s current shortcoming.”
Ji Zhuowen was a little surprised that the boss was not very good at marketing the dairy industry. It's quite insightful, but if you think about it carefully, isn't this what Tianhe and Fengkai did?
Jiahe has really implemented the purpose of service to the end.
Seeing that Ji Zhuowen was still stunned, Guo Yang waved the document in his hand and said, "Let me read the report for a while."
"Okay!"
Ji Zhuowen came to his senses, but did not go far. Instead, he went to the office next to him, but his peripheral vision stayed on the boss.
Guo Yang’s attention returned to the financial statements.
2006 has just passed, and the detailed financial report for last year has not yet been released, but the general financial data is already available.
Putting it at the top is the recent daily sales curve, which first jumped up and down, and then rose rapidly again.
After New Year's Day, daily sales reached more than 80 million yuan, which is also the current production capacity limit.
The sales in the fourth quarter of 2006 reached 4.2 billion yuan.
Guo Yang raised his eyebrows, how much did it cost in the first three quarters? It seems to have exceeded 10 billion!
Continue to look down.
As expected, in the first three quarters, Hexi Dairy's sales were 1.6 billion, 1.6 billion, and 2.7 billion respectively, totaling 5.9 billion.
The total for the whole year is exactly 10.1 billion yuan.
Guo Yang took a sip of tea to calm down, but he still couldn't suppress the excitement in his heart. Hexi Dairy has only been established for three or four years, and it has exceeded 10 billion?
This is indeed a remarkable achievement.
I wonder how Ji Zhuowen hid it for so long just now?
Raising his head, he saw Ji Zhuowen quickly retracting his gaze and pretending to be staring at the computer. Guo Yang smiled unconsciously.
The excitement that was rolling in my heart also calmed down, and I deserved this result.
Next year’s data will only look better, with the annual growth rate exceeding 100%, or even approaching 200%.
Daily sales are 80 million yuan, which is 2.4 billion yuan a month and 28.8 billion yuan a year...
It is estimated that despite this change this year, Yili's revenue will still be able to maintain growth, probably in the range of 15 to 16 billion yuan, but its profits will be a loss.
Mengniu is even worse.
As long as Hexi Dairy Industry remains stable, it will definitely become the industry leader next year.
So, Ji Zhuowen is still a little too greedy.
Thinking of this, Guo Yang looked at Lao Ji again, and their eyes met.
Guo Yang teased: "Old Ji, your determination is pretty good. I haven't seen you posting messages in the group even after breaking 10 billion!"
Ji Zhuowen scratched his head in embarrassment, "I "I just posted it."
Guo Yang was stunned, laughed twice, and continued to read.
The profit margin in Hexi is also good. As the scale increases, the cost decreases and the yield per unit area continues to increase.
The net profit is close to 30%, ranking first in the country, which is equivalent to making 3 billion yuan a year.
The initial cost has almost been recovered.
In addition, the data on the average cost and benefit of raising dairy cows are also very eye-catching.
An adult cow produces 10 tons of high-quality milk every year. In 2006, the milk price on the market was generally 1.5 to 1.9 yuan/kg.
Due to the product premium and employee dividend plan, Hexi Milk is priced internally at 3 yuan/kg.
The annual output value of each cow is 30,000 yuan, and the input cost of each cow is about 15,000 yuan.
Net profit is about 15,000 yuan.
Cost profit margin 100%.
The financial staff also made rough statistics on the market. The output value is about 17,000 yuan, the cost is about 13,000 yuan, and the cost profit rate is about 30%.
From various aspects of data, Hexi Dairy’s large-scale pasture efficiency has been crushed.
In terms of the number of employees and employment generation, Hexi Dairy has actually done quite well.
The first is pasture management, taking a mechanized dairy farm with 10,000 cows as an example.
Two senior executives,
Animal husbandry and veterinary technical teams, one for every 250 cows, that is, 80 people;
Breeders, about 50 people;< br>
Breeders, about 100 people;
Milking and milk processing, about 80 people;
Feed and plot, other management personnel, combined, a 10,000-head dairy farm requires at least 400 employees.
In fact, the average number of employees in the pasture sector of Hexi Dairy far exceeds the standard, with the total number of people reaching 15,000.
In processing, transportation, sales, distribution and other links, more than 60,000 jobs have been directly created.
In 2006, Hexi Dairy’s employee salary expenditure was 187 million yuan, with an average monthly salary of 2,500 yuan.
This does not include employee bonuses.
Even if it is 2,500 yuan, this level is far higher than most people, and is more than twice the average salary in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry in 2006.
Including dividends, the income level of Hexi Dairy can even steadily exceed the average salary of employees in major cities such as Yangcheng and Pengcheng.
Hexi Dairy also has many investments in remote areas.
With this income level, employees in Hexi will undoubtedly be very happy this year.
In addition, Hexi Dairy has also promoted pasture cultivation, organic fertilizer production, and bioenergy...
The number of people attached to Hexi Dairy's ships continues to increase.
In general, although Hexi Dairy has taken away the jobs of many dairy farmers, and even milk prices have remained low for a long time, it is inseparable from Hexi Dairy.
But Hexi Dairy also created a large number of jobs, promoted the elimination of backward production capacity, and promoted the progress of the industry.
Overall, the pros definitely far outweigh the cons.
It’s just that in the short term, it will offend many people and even make people hate it, especially in Mongolia Province, which has been hit hard this time...
When Jiahe invests in the future, you have to be careful, because there may be herdsmen coming to cause trouble. .
This afternoon, Guo Yang stayed in the office sorting out various data.
If you don’t understand anything, feel free to discuss it with Ji Zhuowen, or call the technical director and R&D personnel below to communicate.
Strive to clarify the meaning of each indicator data and its level in the country and the world.
The more you know.
Guo Yang increasingly feels that these data still have a lot of room for improvement.
The output value of Hexi Dairy can reach such a high level now because of the money spent in the early stage, which has absorbed the dividends brought by high-quality alfalfa grass + Hexi dairy cows. Coupled with the management advantages brought by large-scale farms and self-controlled milk sources.
To put it bluntly, the biggest contribution is the excellent varieties cultivated by seed stores.
In terms of product research and development and technical foundation, Hexi Dairy still cannot compare with established enterprises such as Yili, Guangming and Sanyuan.
After this incident, other companies will definitely turn to learn from the Hexi dairy industry, introduce high-quality forage, and even introduce Hexi milk.
What can Hexi Dairy do?
Guo Yang, Ji Zhuowen and others actively discussed it.
It is certain to expand production capacity and seize market share;
Variety selection, technological innovation, product research and development, internal control management, etc. are also very important.
It took two days in a row to sort out the general direction of the goals and strategies for the new year.
……
While Hexi Dairy was busy enjoying the fruits of victory, many dairy brands were in crisis.
Taizinai is in financial trouble.
Yili and Guangming faced huge losses, their stock prices fell sharply, and their market share was lost.
The most urgent thing is the fierce bull, who is so busy asking for help everywhere. Mr. Niu even wrote a letter of ten thousand words, asking the business community and the government to rescue Mengniu to avoid being acquired by foreign capital.
According to Mr. Niu, JPMorgan Chase holds 9.78% of Mengniu’s total equity, Citigroup holds 8.8%, and UBS bucked the trend and increased its holdings to 12.23%.
This keeps Mr. Niu awake at night.
When they learned the news, Guo Yang and others were still in a meeting. When Ji Zhuowen and others expressed their opinions with great interest,
Guo Yang said: "This is just a show by Mr. Niu. Mengniu has no milk source base, and foreign investors lack control over raw materials, and Mengniu relies on dealers for distribution."
"In addition, the acquisition depends on the government. Due to factors, foreign capital is unlikely to acquire top dairy companies.”
In addition to the memories of his past life, Guo Yang has also gained a lot of knowledge about the dairy industry these days. Foreign capital would like to directly acquire first-tier brands, but the government will not allow it.
Some executives in Hexi still don’t believe it.
During this period, foreign brands such as Danone, Fonterra, FrieslandCampina, and Lanternis have increased their investment in China.
Many domestic experts began to worry and made a series of remarks, triggering a wave of panic.
Even the people in Hexi were brought into the rhythm.
There must be truth, but Guo Yang feels that it is more of a groundless worry and alarmist.
The domestic price war is so serious that foreign brands look down on the profits of mid- to low-end products and will only focus on making profits from high-end brands.
As for high-end brands, there is Hexi milk powder, and Guo Yang is quite confident...
really.
As Yili and Mengniu products are removed from the shelves, recalled, and destroyed, losses are getting heavier and heavier, and the sales end is also in trouble, with more and more inventory backlogs.
But the operation model of dairy companies is like tap water, which needs to be turned over 24 hours a day.
The cow has to be milked!
It broke after two days of use.
The milk cannot be sold.
The scene of pouring milk and killing cows reappears.
Dairy farmers and dairy companies are wailing.
Following this, in order to help dairy companies get out of trouble, departments at all levels launched assistance measures, and the finance department allocated 300 million yuan in temporary assistance subsidies for dairy farmers.
Twelve provinces including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Inner Mongolia have also adopted methods such as increasing fiscal discounts and subsidizing processing fees to encourage processing companies to expand the purchase of raw milk.
Beijing’s finance department has decided to provide a 60% subsidy for the losses caused by the destruction of substandard milk by dairy processing enterprises.
Montreal Province also provided a reserve fund of 100 million yuan, and Hohhot also provided a special fund of 50 million yuan to support the two major dairy companies Yili and Mengniu in overcoming the difficulties.
At the same time, the province also submitted an application to exempt the two major groups from value-added tax for the next four months.
A series of measures allowed Yili to take the lead in restoring some vitality, and immediately announced that it would build a milk source base on a large scale, and planned to add 20 new dairy farms under the milk cooperative model.
Like Hexi Dairy, Yili also has three natural pastures: Hulunbeier, Tianshan Grassland and Duerbot.
It’s just that the proportion of self-controlled milk sources is not high.
As for Mengniu, its milk source has always been a shackle. This time it was also announced to invest 6 billion yuan in 3 to 5 years to build more than 20 large-scale dairy farms with 10,000 cows.
But everyone in Hexi judged that Mengniu did not have this ability before the injection of new large funds.
In addition, Sanyuan also announced plans to build multiple dairy farms with 10,000 cows.
But these are just slogans for now.
In contrast, foreign capital has begun to invest real money. Nestlé invested 180 million yuan in Shuangcheng, Black Province, to build super-large ranches.
Previously, it owned 165,000 cows through various models.
New Zealand's Fonterra has established five super-large ranch projects in Hebei Province...
A series of investment implementations.
Hexi Dairy is also very fast in taking action. Through years of hard work in managing very large ranches, Hexi Dairy has already become proficient in it.
Nowadays, Hexi Dairy's assets are being liquidated very quickly, with smooth bank loan channels, fiscal interest discount support, and abundant funds.
Alfalfa Agriculture and Animal Husbandry is particularly good at land consolidation and the production of high-quality forage.
In terms of management and technical teams, many talents have been cultivated over the years, so it is a good time for promotion.
With the right time, place and people, the inspection team from Hexi Dairy quickly rushed to all directions to inspect the location of the ranch.
……
While Hexi Dairy was still under investigation, a leader from Heilongjiang Province contacted Jiahe to seek investment.
Zhou Kai manages his figure very well, and in his fifties he is still in his prime for his position.
Through his relationship with the Ministry of Agriculture, he met with Guo Yang in the capital.
Zhou Kai said: "Mr. Guo, the alfalfa industrial cluster in Heilongjiang Province has been proposed for more than a year, but the reclamation area has been looking forward to it!"
Guo Yang said with a smile. : "Leader, the inspection team from Hexi has already set off. If nothing else happens, there will definitely be a site selection in the reclamation area this time."
Black Province has always been the largest infant milk powder production base in the country, as well as a high-end milk powder base.
Independently cultivated domestic dairy companies such as Feihe and Wandashan, and introduced Nestlé international dairy companies.
The demand for dairy companies is not strong.
Zhou Kai raised his eyebrows and said: "The current alfalfa industry in the reclamation area is scattered and isolated, and lacks a comprehensive range of alfalfa seed breeding, planting, cultivation, mechanical harvesting, processing, sales, breeding, and ecological foreign trade. "
"At present, only Alfalfa Agriculture and Animal Husbandry has such strength. The more than 300,000 cows in the reclamation area are in urgent need of high-quality forage!"
The development history of the alfalfa industry in the reclamation areas of Heilongjiang Province is roughly similar to that of my country's alfalfa industry.
Starting from scratch in the 1990s, it grew from small to large. Later, due to the grain subsidy policy, the planting area shrank significantly.
Until now, affected by the melamine incident, the value of alfalfa has been revealed, and market demand and prices have begun to rise.
Guo Yang pondered for a while and said: "Now the whole country is short of high-quality commercial grass, and it is impossible to invest heavily in alfalfa..."
Zhou Kai immediately said: "We are leading the way. Sincerely, the subsidy for improved seeds is 100 yuan/acre, and the total subsidy for pasture machinery is 50%..."
Guo Yang was surprised for a moment. The subsidy for improved seeds was okay, but the subsidy for forage machinery reached 50%, which was a little more attractive.
The reclamation area has fewer people and more land, and the land is flat and continuous, which is very conducive to large-scale mechanized operations.
For example, Youyi Farm, the largest farm in the reclamation area, has a cultivated area of nearly 1.38 million acres and is known as the largest farm in the world.
The shortcomings of the reclamation area are the low degree of alfalfa industrialization, lack of harvesting machinery, poor storage and storage capabilities, and few improved varieties...
These are Jiahe's strengths.
Guo Yang hesitated.
After thinking for a long time, he still felt that making large investments directly was not the best option.
Alfalfa has two industrial highlands in the Hexi Corridor and the Hetao area, supplemented by two advantageous production areas in Xinjiang Province and the Loess Plateau. It can control most of the global high-end alfalfa trade volume and earn the most money. profit.
Others such as Horqin Sand District, Shaanxi Yulin, Liupanshan District of Ning Province, Henan Yellow River Beach, Bohai Bay District, Yellow River Delta District, etc.
are left to followers such as Huihuang and Oasis. At the same time, Alfalfa earns profits from seeds, agricultural machinery, processing and other links.
This is the optimal solution.
Faced with Zhou Kai’s warm invitation, Guo Yang still refused.
In the next few days, alfalfa became the target of various major livestock provinces competing to attract investment.
Main leaders from various provinces and cities led groups to visit.
After several tortures, Guo Yang couldn't cope with it.
We had no choice but to let Xie Shijie take the lead, with Hexi and Fengkai participating, and organized partners such as Huihuang, Oasis, and Yasheng Tianyuan to negotiate cooperation with major livestock provinces.
Alfalfa Agriculture and Animal Husbandry controls the field behind the scenes, several grass industry companies take the lead in investing, and various provinces and cities have also achieved the goal of developing the alfalfa industry.
Almost all parties achieved their goals.
While major livestock provinces are busy restoring their dairy industry and developing their alfalfa industry, the coastal saline-alkali land is another scene.
The salty wind blows over the wheat fields, giving the entire field a dreamlike beauty.
For growers, beauty is secondary, yield is the most important.
In fact, the temperature this winter is relatively low and the moisture content is relatively average.
However, one year after the land was improved by Alfalfa No. 1, the land brought surprises to farmers.
The soil is fertile and deep, and the soil quality has been greatly improved. The salinity has also been reduced to less than 3‰, which is combined with Tianhe’s wheat to produce eugenics.
The wheat is growing well at the moment, green and full of vitality.
Experienced farmers predict that if there are no problems with follow-up management, the wheat yield of 400 to 500 kilograms per mu will be stable, and the income will be 600 to 700 yuan.
Some fields that have been re-applied with organic fertilizers can grow even higher.
Coupled with the bullish alfalfa market, there is a market and a price, and the payback cycle for improving saline-alkali land is shortened again.
The enthusiasm of big households for land has once again been ignited, and the number and area of coastal saline-alkali land improvement projects has rapidly exploded.
The feeling of Alfalfa farming and animal husbandry is more intuitive.
Bag after bag of No. 1 alfalfa seeds costing 500 yuan per pound are sent to various places.
At the beginning of the new year, Jiahe’s funds quickly began to flow back.
(End of this chapter)